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  • #61
    Originally posted by WestSideRabbit View Post

    Yeah, no way MVFC gets 4 teams because YSU lost to MSU last weekend and will only get to 7 wins without a single quality win. No 6 win MVFC team makes it this year. SDSU, NDSU, and maybe UND.

    BSC will have Sac State, Montana State, Weber State, and then some combination of Montana, Idaho, and UC Davis... all depending on this weekends outcomes. The two huge matchups to watch are Sac State vs. UC Davis and Montana vs. Montana State.

    The CAA will have a bunch of teams too. William and Mary and Richmond play this weekend and the winner will be a seed but both teams will make the field regardless. New Hampshire, Elon, Delaware, and Rhode Island are all in the mix for spots too.

    I think if Montana wins, UND gets left at home. Especially if UT-Martin wins the OVC coin flip (since SEMO would then steal and at large) and if UC Davis wins, that’ll eat another bubble. Baring upsets, one of Montana-UND-Idaho is probably getting left out, and if upsets occur, all 3 may be watching from home. Valley is just as likely or more likely to get two than they are to get three. UND is win and in.

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    • #62
      Originally posted by WestSideRabbit View Post

      Yeah, no way MVFC gets 4 teams because YSU lost to MSU last weekend and will only get to 7 wins without a single quality win. No 6 win MVFC team makes it this year. SDSU, NDSU, and maybe UND.

      BSC will have Sac State, Montana State, Weber State, and then some combination of Montana, Idaho, and UC Davis... all depending on this weekends outcomes. The two huge matchups to watch are Sac State vs. UC Davis and Montana vs. Montana State.

      The CAA will have a bunch of teams too. William and Mary and Richmond play this weekend and the winner will be a seed but both teams will make the field regardless. New Hampshire, Elon, Delaware, and Rhode Island are all in the mix for spots too.
      Yes, after i posed that, i went to do a little research of my own. obviously the jacks have not played either YSU or SIU this year so i cannot gauge them off of how they looked against the jacks and comparing scores is a lot less than accurate, but i was still thinking maybe the winner of their game this week might have a shot

      based on what you have said, if UND loses to NDSU, which i believe is the smart bet, that also leaves them with only 7 wins and none against the jacks or bison. does that leave them out also?

      i am definitely willing to take your word for it, and i understand that the MVFC is down this year, but it also seems like the entire FCS is a little down this year. in that scenario the MVFC is still no worse than the second best conference. you really think there is zero chance a 6 win SIU or UNI has no chance if they win this week?

      as far as the big sky, i agree they currently have a big 3. it looked like Idaho had a good win over montana but if montana loses this week, are they really good?? if UC Davis wins this week that would move them into the top shelf and give the big sky a big 4.

      i will guess, since you are saying the MVFC might get only 2 teams in and the BS gets 4 or 5 that you feel like Montana and Idaho are clearly better than UNI, YSU, and SIU? i think montana would have a definite advantage over any of those teams playing them at montana but do you think they are definitely better on a neutral field?

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      • #63
        Originally posted by Mr_Tibbs View Post


        I think if Montana wins, UND gets left at home. Especially if UT-Martin wins the OVC coin flip (since SEMO would then steal and at large) and if UC Davis wins, that’ll eat another bubble. Baring upsets, one of Montana-UND-Idaho is probably getting left out, and if upsets occur, all 3 may be watching from home. Valley is just as likely or more likely to get two than they are to get three. UND is win and in.
        totally agree with you!! if montana wins that gives them 8 wins and they are in. might be in anyway. if Davis wins that give them 7 plus a win over Sac and close losses to the jacks and weber. no doubt they would be in

        if both of them are in that would give big sky 5. if montana st loses, of course they are still in with 9 wins, but they look pretty questionable. they got to play every quality team at home this year (montana, weber, and davis) did not play Sac or Idaho. they needed way more than a little help to beat weber at home and plenty of help to beat NAU on the road. again they are definitely in but looking a bit shaky

        anyway, i trust both you and westside opinions about all of this!! i do think the MVFC is a bit a victim of their own reputation here. they defintely are down this year. NO QUESTION!! but that looks even worse because of their own high standard. and while now that i have looked at everything in more detail, i agree there is a good chance we get only 2 teams in and almost guaranteed no more than 3. i think that 6 or 7 wins in the valley is still a meaningful accomplishment. i dont think there is any easy game in the valley this year with the probable exception of WIU

        i think the bottom of the valley is definitely better than the bottom of the big sky this year, but we are never gonna see those games. i believe the jacks and bison are better than the top of the big sky this year and we are about to find that out for sure. what about the middle teams in each conference? i think i am hearing the two of you say BS teams have the edge and i am positive you know more about it than i do!!!

        ultimately i really wish these two conferences would play more OOC games against each other, but obviously when you are trying to get to 8 wins playing too many good teams makes that a big challenge

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        • #64
          Final Sagarin ratings lists SDSU as the top FCS team and #41 in all D1; and, NDSU as the second FCS team, and #71 in all D1l.

          Top 10 FCS schools as determined by Sagarin's computer are
          SDSU 41
          NDSU 71
          Sacramento State 78
          Montana State 80
          Incarnate Word 83
          UC Davis 89
          Montana 96
          Weber State 98
          Northern Iowa 106
          Furman 110

          MVFC as determined by Sagarin (again, the number is the rank within all D1)
          SDSU 41
          NDSU 71
          UNI 106
          SIU 123
          UND 127
          YSU 138
          MSU 139
          ISU (red) 158
          USD 161
          ISU (blue) 191
          WIU 210

          Other FCS school of interest:
          Idaho (Coach Eck's team) 118
          Holy Cross (Playoff opponent) 135
          Delaware (Playoff opponent) 149


          https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2022-2/...-ratings-2022/

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          • #65
            Originally posted by JackJD View Post
            Final Sagarin ratings lists SDSU as the top FCS team and #41 in all D1; and, NDSU as the second FCS team, and #71 in all D1l.

            Top 10 FCS schools as determined by Sagarin's computer are
            SDSU 41
            NDSU 71
            Sacramento State 78
            Montana State 80
            Incarnate Word 83
            UC Davis 89
            Montana 96
            Weber State 98
            Northern Iowa 106
            Furman 110

            MVFC as determined by Sagarin (again, the number is the rank within all D1)
            SDSU 41
            NDSU 71
            UNI 106
            SIU 123
            UND 127
            YSU 138
            MSU 139
            ISU (red) 158
            USD 161
            ISU (blue) 191
            WIU 210

            Other FCS school of interest:
            Idaho (Coach Eck's team) 118
            Holy Cross (Playoff opponent) 135
            Delaware (Playoff opponent) 149


            https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2022-2/...-ratings-2022/
            Iowa at 21 and especially Minnesota at 24 seem high. I would put money on the Jacks vs either one.

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            • #66
              Originally posted by bigticket1 View Post

              Iowa at 21 and especially Minnesota at 24 seem high. I would put money on the Jacks vs either one.
              The Iowa team SDSU played, or the Iowa team that played in the bowl game?
              You know that you're over the hill when your mind makes a promise that your body can't fill. - L. George

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