2024-2025 Polls/NET/RPI

[peavy]

Indiana and Illinois upsets today. Michigan blowing out Oregon by 32. Creighton and Providence game too close. Iowa looks like they're going to pull off the upset. The 3 b1g games alone will be enough for those teams to make an appearance in this week's poll.

Huge day for bubble teams. This will ruin the chances for the 3 bid Ivy people.

[peavy]

The part I dislike most about all of this is that the team is so close to the sweet spot of tournament caliber teams (think the good p4 schools). The team won't get the benefit of the movement (as little as it may be, and as quickly as it can go away because of other people earning ranked wins, etc) that other teams are seeing. Take a look at Harvard who just gained 2 spots without having played a game. Yes, they'll get passed over by Creighton and Oregon with the next win, but this is the movement I was hoping for. Right in the middle of all the p4 chaos

[jacksfaninne]

Ducks hang on for big road win over Sparty.

[peavy]

Badgers beat RV Michigan yday
Oregon up 15 on #16 MSU in East Lansing. This would be a huge win for them and they'd probably be RVing this week. 55-40 heading into the 4th. It would make SDSU's win Q1 again (Net 37 Oregon. need them to be < 36)
Still early on some of the games but a bunch of the RV/15-25 games are close. Nebraska 29-27 against Purdue. 4:12 2nd Q. 49-42 Ole Miss against Georgia 4th q, etc

[MontanaRabbit]

Yuck.... time to drop a game or two I guess. 8/9 is basically a death sentence in women's basketball.

Charlie Creme is probably one of the worst bracketologists around. This team is better than an 8/9 and will likely be a 6 as long as they take care of business the rest of the way.

[RahRahRabbits]

The most recent bracketology has us at a 9 seed playing Louisville (8) and potentially USC (1). I think the obvious goal would be to get to the 6 line to potentially match up with a 3 seed in the second round. That is not looking likely.

Yuck.... time to drop a game or two I guess. 8/9 is basically a death sentence in women's basketball.

[Jackrabbit2012]

Because of the cat and mouse games SDSU has been playing they could potentially end up with a worse seed like some have called for. I reckon that Used game could have been in the 30-40 range.

The most recent bracketology has us at a 9 seed playing Louisville (8) and potentially USC (1). I think the obvious goal would be to get to the 6 line to potentially match up with a 3 seed in the second round. That is not looking likely.

[peavy]

New Coaches Poll. SDSU gains 7 points (27pts ->34). The team remains at #26

23 Vandy 68 points
24 FSU 59 points
25 Oklahoma State 44 points
26 SDSU 34 points
27 Baylor 33 points
28 Creighton 17 points
29 Minnesota 16 points
30 Nebraska 15 points

[discoDancinRabbit]

Because of the cat and mouse games SDSU has been playing they could potentially end up with a worse seed like some have called for. I reckon that Used game could have been in the 30-40 range.

[peavy]

How does Harvards resume add up to a NET of 33? While they have an OT win @ 39 Indiana, there 2 losses are @ #47 Princeton by 2, and @ #97 Quinipiac by 23. They have beaten no one with a higher net, and lost to 2 with a lower net.


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What we're probably seeing is the benefit of margins of victory. It seems like because SDSU isn't blowing teams out of the water like they have in recent years, we're seeing virtually no NET movement for the past however many weeks. Now there are teams like Fairfield that is behind us (NET 43) because of their victory margins ( most recent games: 19, 25, 46, 47, 39).

I listened to a podcast put on by an assistant coach of Murray State with Talia Goodman. The coach ended up talking about NET and how teams (like we saw with Texas) push the pedal to the metal. He suggested some teams may keep their starters in longer to push margins, etc.

I half seriously asked, "Why are wholesome, never hurt a fly, midwestern mid-major coaches asked to violate their moral compass by grinding their opponents into dust for the benefit of the team's NET?" "

Whatever you do don't look at WVU's resume. They only have 1 Q2 win on their resume and Creme has them as a 5 seed and they're NET 14 and ranked 21. They have to be the team that has benefitted the most from the preseason ranking. They haven't left the poll at all and their resume is so so underwhelming.

[HoboJack]

How does Harvards resume add up to a NET of 33? While they have an OT win @ 39 Indiana, there 2 losses are @ #47 Princeton by 2, and @ #97 Quinipiac by 23. They have beaten no one with a higher net, and lost to 2 with a lower net.


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[jakejc795]

2 points again in this poll and 8 teams ahead of SDSU receiving votes. just too many teams that will need to lose
RV teams: Michigan 30, Nebraska 26, Minnesota 25, Creighton 21, Baylor 12, Utah 11, Mississippi 8, Harvard 7, SDSU 2

Michigan still has to play Huskers
Gophers have games vs. USC, UCLA, Ohio State, and Michigan State
Creighton still has UConn
Baylor has TCU and WVU
Utah has Oklahoma State and WVU
Ole Miss has Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Tennessee, and South Carolina

[peavy]

2 points again in this poll and 8 teams ahead of SDSU receiving votes. just too many teams that will need to lose
RV teams: Michigan 30, Nebraska 26, Minnesota 25, Creighton 21, Baylor 12, Utah 11, Mississippi 8, Harvard 7, SDSU 2

[peavy]

NET rankings update through Jan 22:
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353"

2024 NCCAW NET Quadrants
Quadrant 1: Home 1-25, Neutral 1-35, Away 1-45
Quadrant 2: Home 26-55, Neutral 36-65, Away 46-80
Quadrant 3: Home 56-90, Neutral 66-105, Away 81-130
Quadrant 4: Home 91-362, Neutral 106-362, Away 131-362"

Something is fishy.... can anyone find a more updated source on NET quadrants?

This past summer they updated the quadrants for women (See 2024 NCAAW NET in the quoted text abpve).

"The 2024-25 NET rank quadrant ranges for women's basketball were based on the expected winning percentage versus a given opponent rank (in NET) with respect to game location, across all games." per NCAA article discussing quadrant team sheets & complete seed list

NET is updated daily. #37 Oregon just beat #39 Indiana by 7 in Oregon. This counts as a Quad 2 win for Oregon, and I assume this margin of victory should put Oregon somewhere below NET 35 (1-35), meaning SDSU's win over Oregon on neutral court should bump from Q2 to Q1.

Now that the quadrants will be used for team sheets on Selection Sunday, I think these updated #s are concerning as a mid-major school (fully understanding that at-large bids may not necessarily be realistic depending on non-conf win/loss by season. I'd like to make a thread on it at some point to continue the discussion. From my perspective, it means that being strategic with non conf scheduling is more important than ever since this change basically cuts way too many #s (teams) from Quads 1-3 and tosses them into a now humongous Quad 4.

some team sheet examples:
NCAA South Dakota State Team Sheet vs Warren Nolan South Dakota State NET Team sheet

Switching back to polls and votes/points, SDSU does luck out with the D2 games not being counted toward a team's Strength of Schedule as far as NET. I fully understand the difficulty with getting teams to Frost, but you take a look at Belmont (team sheet - non-conf NET SOS 3 to SDSU's 10) and some of the programs similar to SDSU and they don't seem to be playing non d1 games. Again, depending on where these poll voters are going to look at records, they may see the team with 2 less wins. If you have a 9-2 team and an 11-2 team and are strictly looking at record without digging deeper, I'm picking the 11-2 team.

Further reading for those interested:
NCAA DIVISION I WOMEN’S BASKETBALL SELECTION CRITERIA & NCAA EVALUATION TOOL (NET) - links to a NCAA pdf - it might prompt to download if on mobile
SI Article discussing NET/Quad perspective of Virginia's NCAA Tournament outlook as a potential bubble team on the outside looking in. Virginia has 0 Quad 1 wins as of now
Marquette SBNation Blog discussing how new NET would have impacted Marquette's basketball season last year and the March outlook (it gave the team 2 extra q2 wins and 1 q3 win, although I'm not sure I follow the way this person did their breakdown)

[bigticket1]

Latest Coaches Poll is out, SDSU is #26. The team gained 7 points this week putting them at 27 total.

24. Minnesota 17-2 45pts
25. Nebraska 15-4 35 pts
26. South Dakota State 15-3 27 pts
27. Creighton 15-3 26 pts

The team's record is either 15-3 or 13-3 depending on where you look. The NCAA NET Ranking page doesn't count the 2 non d1 wins in their NET calculation so it's 13-3 there (team is NET #40 at the moment)

Minnesota lost to Michigan last night, and their next game is against USC, which is very likely another L.