BracketBuster

[Kemo]

Re: BracketBuster

I don't like this "never" talk for an at-large bid, as ORU was pretty darn close to receiving one last year, and if the stars align right there could be a chance down the road.

However, it won't happen this year, even with beating 2 top 25 teams because of bad loses to Hofstra (who lost 4 players after they beat us, which makes the lose appear worse) and USD.

The bracketbuster game could, however, affect our seeding come tournament time. Every slot we move up increases the likelihood of a tournament win.

[FargoBison]

Re: BracketBuster

I do still wonder if ORU had beaten WIU and lost in the title game if they would have gotten a bid.

[OldHare]

Re: BracketBuster

I do still wonder if ORU had beaten WIU and lost in the title game if they would have gotten a bid.

That was the minimum that ORU needed to do. There are always many other facts and figures and politics involved, but a win against WIU would have made the conversation happen as they some quality wins and games last year. The only advantage ORU has in the Southland now is less travel. It does not appear to have the same competition. It appears they are in #23 RPI conference. (Even less of a chance than the Summit.)

[rabidrabbit]

Re: BracketBuster

Was ORU's position any different last year, than SDSU's is this year? I would make the case that the top teams in the Summit this year have better RPI's than last season, and should NDSU/SDSU final lead to NDSU winning, having 2 top 25 wins (UNM, and WSU) IMHO match up with ORU's wins last year. The downside, as pointed out are the Hofstra and USD games, and the blow-out losses to Belmont and Minn. Summit has been, and likely to continue as an Auto-bid ONLY conference. Maybe Jacks get lucky.

Best to just win the Tourney championship, and leave no doubt.

[joeboo22]

Re: BracketBuster

There is always a change, I'd argue that top 60 RPI schools from any conference have a good chance this year just because the top 50 changes week in and week out. There was something like 20 losses from top 25 teams last week, and some of them were pretty ugly from non ranked teams. However will the committee take a Kentucky or an extra A-10 team? I've seen mock brackets that have 5 Mountain West teams making it, Do only 3 make it and they take a XDSU? Or a different mid-major? Who knows, the committee makes some odd decisions every year so you never know. For SDSU I'd just focus on winning the games on their schedule and then winning the tournament.

[filbert]

Re: BracketBuster

There is always a change, I'd argue that top 60 RPI schools from any conference have a good chance this year just because the top 50 changes week in and week out. There was something like 20 losses from top 25 teams last week, and some of them were pretty ugly from non ranked teams. However will the committee take a Kentucky or an extra A-10 team? I've seen mock brackets that have 5 Mountain West teams making it, Do only 3 make it and they take a XDSU? Or a different mid-major? Who knows, the committee makes some odd decisions every year so you never know. For SDSU I'd just focus on winning the games on their schedule and then winning the tournament.

I think the lower limit for a team to be considered for the bubble is somewhere around RPI #50, actually. There are 31 automatic bids, half of which are from conferences which will likely be won by teams with RPI's over 50. So the other 15 conference champions will come out of those 50 top-RPI-teams, leaving 35 to be at-large candidates.

31+35=66. There are 68 berths in the NCAA tournament.

So, your chances of getting in with an RPI over 50 are exceptionally poor unless you win your conference tournament. And, if you're over 50, the chance of you getting a look if you're not in one of the "power" conferences is vanishingly small.

Therefore, to be talking realistically about two bids from the Summit, then two teams need to be playing with RPI's under 50. That won't happen consistently until the bottom of the conference gets better, and stops being a severe drag on the RPI's of the top teams.

[joeboo22]

Re: BracketBuster

I think the lower limit for a team to be considered for the bubble is somewhere around RPI #50, actually. There are 31 automatic bids, half of which are from conferences which will likely be won by teams with RPI's over 50. So the other 15 conference champions will come out of those 50 top-RPI-teams, leaving 35 to be at-large candidates.

31+35=66. There are 68 berths in the NCAA tournament.

So, your chances of getting in with an RPI over 50 are exceptionally poor unless you win your conference tournament. And, if you're over 50, the chance of you getting a look if you're not in one of the "power" conferences is vanishingly small.

Therefore, to be talking realistically about two bids from the Summit, then two teams need to be playing with RPI's under 50. That won't happen consistently until the bottom of the conference gets better, and stops being a severe drag on the RPI's of the top teams.

The lowest rated RPI to get a bid was #63. The reason I wonder if they won't go a little higher is because of the parity this year, and no real top of the line. Minnesota and Louisville were top 10 teams and lost 3 straight. Illinois was a top 15 team, had signature wins and as of today probably wouldn't make the tournament.

BPI and signature OOC wins are other things they look at, SDSU's BPI is pretty bad, where NDSU's is decent, but SDSU beat New Mexico. So there is a chance. What really factors in is how many 2-3 bid conferences have someone who wouldn't get an at large win their conference.

I wouldn't bet on it though, have to show up for 3 straight games if you expect to make the tournament.

[filbert]

Re: BracketBuster

The lowest rated RPI to get a bid was #63. The reason I wonder if they won't go a little higher is because of the parity this year, and no real top of the line. Minnesota and Louisville were top 10 teams and lost 3 straight. Illinois was a top 15 team, had signature wins and as of today probably wouldn't make the tournament.

BPI and signature OOC wins are other things they look at, SDSU's BPI is pretty bad, where NDSU's is decent, but SDSU beat New Mexico. So there is a chance. What really factors in is how many 2-3 bid conferences have someone who wouldn't get an at large win their conference.

I wouldn't bet on it though, have to show up for 3 straight games if you expect to make the tournament.

And that #63 was probably from a power conference, I'd guess.

[jackmd]

Re: BracketBuster

Therefore, to be talking realistically about two bids from the Summit, then two teams need to be playing with RPI's under 50. That won't happen consistently until the bottom of the conference gets better, and stops being a severe drag on the RPI's of the top teams.

This, and even then it would take the right outcome in the power conference post-season tourneys to assure that a team that would have been out doesn't win the autobid.

The Summit league is a not a 2 bid conference at this time, not really even close in my opinion. I've only been paying attention to this stuff for 25 years so I could be wrong.

[Nidaros]

Re: BracketBuster

This, and even then it would take the right outcome in the power conference post-season tourneys to assure that a team that would have been out doesn't win the autobid.

The Summit league is a not a 2 bid conference at this time, not really even close in my opinion. I've only been paying attention to this stuff for 25 years so I could be wrong.

I think its going to be a long time before we become a 2 bid conference. It's going to take a bunch of New Mexico upsets and consistent wins against the majors by SDSU, NDSU, UNO, USD, before we get that type of recognition. We may think the Dakotas are the heart of America, but there are so many sophiscated jerks on both east and west coasts that have to be convinced otherwise. Its about image, and any of the forementioned schools should they get a big dance bid will have to advance deep.

[Jacks-02]

Re: BracketBuster

Really what's keeping the conference from being a 2 bid league isn't the top teams, it's the bottom ones. You can't have 5 teams in a 9 team league with 250+ RPI's and expect it to get an at-large bid. Those 5 teams will drag down the top team's RPI's too much for them to be considered.

I think progress will be made in the coming years. Denver will bring a solid program into the league next year and I think UNO can build a competitive program since they dropped football and are putting decent money into the program. I see USD being on the upswing and should be able to get into 175 range next year.

Adding two games a year against Denver and improving two or three of the bottom teams by 50-100 spots in RPI would probably be enough to bump an NDSU/SDSU this year from a 65 RPI to a 50 RPI, which would at least get them in the conversation.

[student]

Re: BracketBuster

Indiana State vs. Wichita State is on espn3 right now for those with access. Five point ISU lead with 8 min+ left to go in the game.

[student]

Re: BracketBuster

Indiana State beats Wichita to end their home winning streak, 68-55.

[Southeast]

Re: BracketBuster

If ISU can get a 13-point win at WSU, we would certainly have a chance. It's hard to feel too sorry for WSU fans after spending a little time reading their thoughts regarding facing SDSU/NDSU in a bracketbuster game.

[Nidaros]

Re: BracketBuster

Really what's keeping the conference from being a 2 bid league isn't the top teams, it's the bottom ones. You can't have 5 teams in a 9 team league with 250+ RPI's and expect it to get an at-large bid. Those 5 teams will drag down the top team's RPI's too much for them to be considered.

I think progress will be made in the coming years. Denver will bring a solid program into the league next year and I think UNO can build a competitive program since they dropped football and are putting decent money into the program. I see USD being on the upswing and should be able to get into 175 range next year.

Adding two games a year against Denver and improving two or three of the bottom teams by 50-100 spots in RPI would probably be enough to bump an NDSU/SDSU this year from a 65 RPI to a 50 RPI, which would at least get them in the conversation.

This post makes sense rpts given, but I feel its more than RPI in play here, its the sense of heading to the wilderness called the Dakotas. Some of those sophiscated folks want no part of that, even Kempe thought his SDSU-NDSU trip was to the north pole or points beyond.