Let's talk about the game: SDSU at Montana

[jackmd]

Re: Let's talk about the game: SDSU at Montana

Hey Jacks, first post here so bear with me. First off, congrats on making the playoffs. I think you'll find that the energy and atmosphere is unlike anything you can possibly simulate during the regular season. I've read most of the posts on this thread and, in my opinion, comparing statistical data between these two teams is a little bit like comparing apples and oranges. We play in two very different conferences that have completely different identities. The Big Sky has some of the best QBs in the country and teams love to sling the ball all over the field. So, comparing historical defensive stats in this one will be difficult. I will say that the wildcard here that I haven't seen mentioned yet is the penalties. The Griz are real good at committing some pretty stupid penalties (i.e. 100+ yards in the first half alone last week), but are even better at overcoming those setbacks...so, we'll see.

Having played at UM, I'm a huge X's and O's guy and I believe the team that wins Saturday will have a better (executed) game plan and fewer turnovers. The Griz' M.O. this season has been to run the ball early and often...if it works, keep running, if it doesn't, keep doing it until it works. Our front five on the O-line are HUGE, but it usually takes them until the 2nd half to start wearing teams down. When this happens, teams usually bring another guy into the box and that's when Mariani usually makes a DB or two look like a high schooler.

It will definitely come down to execution as I am confident our guys can match-up head-to-head pretty well. Penalties should be in our favor as we make very few mistakes but a loud stadium will make that a little tougher although TCF was pretty loud and we stayed focused.

My concern is field position. We have made some poor decisions on kickoffs and some of our punting has been sub par resulting in shorter fields. I think our defense can hold Montana but if they pin our offense deep I'm worried about an ill-advised pass and subsequent pick 6, fumble or some other screw up. We've seen that plenty of times this year and I have no doubt Montana will bring the house if we get pinned deep.

So, all we need to do is play our best game of the year on both sides of the ball and see what happens. It's really just as simple as that. You play all year to get to this point and then you either rise to the occasion and execute the way you have been working to all year or you get your butt beat and you go home for the winter. All the banter, vitriol, angst or whatever from fans and alumni don't make one bit of difference when that ball is placed on the tee.

[sfjacksfan99]

Re: Let's talk about the game: SDSU at Montana

Hey Jacks, first post here so bear with me. First off, congrats on making the playoffs. I think you'll find that the energy and atmosphere is unlike anything you can possibly simulate during the regular season. I've read most of the posts on this thread and, in my opinion, comparing statistical data between these two teams is a little bit like comparing apples and oranges. We play in two very different conferences that have completely different identities. The Big Sky has some of the best QBs in the country and teams love to sling the ball all over the field. So, comparing historical defensive stats in this one will be difficult. I will say that the wildcard here that I haven't seen mentioned yet is the penalties. The Griz are real good at committing some pretty stupid penalties (i.e. 100+ yards in the first half alone last week), but are even better at overcoming those setbacks...so, we'll see.

Having played at UM, I'm a huge X's and O's guy and I believe the team that wins Saturday will have a better (executed) game plan and fewer turnovers. The Griz' M.O. this season has been to run the ball early and often...if it works, keep running, if it doesn't, keep doing it until it works. Our front five on the O-line are HUGE, but it usually takes them until the 2nd half to start wearing teams down. When this happens, teams usually bring another guy into the box and that's when Mariani usually makes a DB or two look like a high schooler.

The game will be fun. I travel from Seattle to Missoula for every home game and I hope a lot of SDSU fans will be making the trip up. I promise to buy any Jacks fan a beer that stops at our tailgate and strikes up a good-spirited conversation.

Very good post. I would agree that excution and turnovers are at the top end of the list of "win these items, win the game". Solid special teams would play into the top items of what appears to be two teams that want to play the same style of football.

I think Mariani is the key. If the Jacks can contain him without using 4 guys to hover over him, they should have a very good chance in the game. Not taking away anything from Reynolds, I just think from what I've seen Mariani is going to be the best player on the field.

[HumbleGriz]

Re: Let's talk about the game: SDSU at Montana

I just think from what I've seen Mariani is going to be the best player on the field.

This has been the case in every game I've seen this year. What's weird is if you've never seen him play before and you see him run out onto the field you'll say "THAT'S Mariani??" He's nothing to look at, but he can change a game on a dime and he definitely can get the crowd rockin'. Reynolds is similar to Mariani in that he's deceiving. Not the fastest guy on the field, but fast enough to get to the edge when he needs to and almost never gets brought down by the first guy.

How is your secondary? I have a feeling that if you can stop the run the way everyone here thinks you will be able to, they are going to be busy on Saturday.

[zooropa]

Re: Let's talk about the game: SDSU at Montana

How is this an interesting statistic? All you show is that the Pick 6 for each team canceled each other out.

16-13 = 3 difference in final score
(9-7) - (6-7) = 2 - -1 = 3 subtract points allowed and points on turnovers
but really this is just 9-6 = 3. Good stuff.

Because it turns the 16 points Minnesota scored into a net 2 points allowed by the defense.

In other games (e.g. SDSU vs. SIU) that number isn't nearly as interesting:

SIU scored 34 points total, but 7 were off an int. return, so SDSU's defense was on the hook for 27 of 34 points. In still other games (e.g. NDSU) every point scored by NDSU was on the SDSU defense (as SDSU's defense didn't score a TD off an int/fumble recovery)

[KUlawJack]

Re: Let's talk about the game: SDSU at Montana

This has been the case in every game I've seen this year. What's weird is if you've never seen him play before and you see him run out onto the field you'll say "THAT'S Mariani??" He's nothing to look at, but he can change a game on a dime and he definitely can get the crowd rockin'. Reynolds is similar to Mariani in that he's deceiving. Not the fastest guy on the field, but fast enough to get to the edge when he needs to and almost never gets brought down by the first guy.

How is your secondary? I have a feeling that if you can stop the run the way everyone here thinks you will be able to, they are going to be busy on Saturday.

Our secondary is solid. We did lose one of our starting corners, General Parnell, earlier in the year, which was a blow. I assume that Cole Brodie will be locked up with Mariani, given that Mariani is the number 1 guy for Montana. At safety, Conrad Kjerstad is a big play type of guy. He hits and seems to be around the football all the time. We play two guys at the other safety position who are both talented but Kjerstad is a guy you will want to watch. I know you mentioned that statistics don't matter, which I can understand, but our defense is #1 in passer efficiency defense, for what its worth.

Honestly, I am more concerned about the Jacks' ability to stop the run than I am the passing game. You have a huge O-line and a back that has over 1,000 yards rushing. If we don't put a stop to the run early, it won't even matter. If we fail to stop the run and let Montana get into 3rd and short all day, we will be in for a long afternoon. We need to have some 3rd and longs and perform in those situations better than we did at Western.

[Crashola]

Re: Let's talk about the game: SDSU at Montana

The game will be fun. I travel from Seattle to Missoula for every home game and I hope a lot of SDSU fans will be making the trip up. I promise to buy any Jacks fan a beer that stops at our tailgate and strikes up a good-spirited conversation.

I'd love to take you up on your offer. It's going to be hard to get away though. Mapquest says its 7 hours to Missoula from Boise, but as you probably know that estimate can get thrown out the window with the weather and roads in this part of the country.

[jackmd]

Re: Let's talk about the game: SDSU at Montana

This has been the case in every game I've seen this year. What's weird is if you've never seen him play before and you see him run out onto the field you'll say "THAT'S Mariani??" He's nothing to look at, but he can change a game on a dime and he definitely can get the crowd rockin'. Reynolds is similar to Mariani in that he's deceiving. Not the fastest guy on the field, but fast enough to get to the edge when he needs to and almost never gets brought down by the first guy.

How is your secondary? I have a feeling that if you can stop the run the way everyone here thinks you will be able to, they are going to be busy on Saturday.

As everyone understands pass defense isn't just about the secondary. If we continue to play the way we have all year, contain the outside runs with the ends, fill from the LB and DB positions, pressure the QB from the outside on rushes and pass/run blitz up the middle Montana will have to show discipline and stick to the run and the short passing game. I don't see us playing nickle or dime in any unconventional situations just because of Mariani. Maybe I'm wrong. We have faced some pretty darn good receivers in the past.

As for our offense, in my opinion its Minett time. Give him the ball and let him lead the way. 3 yards on first or second down is a heck of a lot better than an incomplete or sacked for a loss. We can't go away from the run early just because we don't get several first downs on the ground. I agree with others that we need to establish some passing game against their defense but priority should be with Minett.

I'll say it again, if we give up field position with a turnover or poor special teams play it puts an amount of pressure on our OFFENSE that has resulted in some huge mistakes and cost us two of our three losses this year. Our defense will perform. If we play like we did against SIU none of this matters and we go home losers. That isn't going to happen.

[propar80]

Re: Let's talk about the game: SDSU at Montana

Because it turns the 16 points Minnesota scored into a net 2 points allowed by the defense.

In other games (e.g. SDSU vs. SIU) that number isn't nearly as interesting:

SIU scored 34 points total, but 7 were off an int. return, so SDSU's defense was on the hook for 27 of 34 points. In still other games (e.g. NDSU) every point scored by NDSU was on the SDSU defense (as SDSU's defense didn't score a TD off an int/fumble recovery)

20 points. The other TD was scored off the botched Punt. Yes the defense might have given it up, but I think it was about 7 yards to paydirt for SIU.
If someone would've told me our defense was going to give up 20 points one time this year to the #1 team in the land...I would have to take that and expect my offense to "buck-up" and score at least 21.

Why the hell am I talking about that game...it made me want to puke in my mouth the first time around.

Go Jacks!!

[Jacks-02]

Re: Let's talk about the game: SDSU at Montana

Because it turns the 16 points Minnesota scored into a net 2 points allowed by the defense.

In other games (e.g. SDSU vs. SIU) that number isn't nearly as interesting:

SIU scored 34 points total, but 7 were off an int. return, so SDSU's defense was on the hook for 27 of 34 points. In still other games (e.g. NDSU) every point scored by NDSU was on the SDSU defense (as SDSU's defense didn't score a TD off an int/fumble recovery)

SIU also got the ball on the 5 yard line after the fumble on the punt attempt by Priddy, so tough to blame those 7 pts on the defense. And against Minnesota, the last FG was allowed after Minnesota recovered a fumble in the red zone. The defense kept them from scoring a TD, I don't think you can put that FG on the defense either.

Against NDSU Domino returned an INT for a TD.

[RudyGriz]

Re: Let's talk about the game: SDSU at Montana

Special Teams and the elevation in Missoula are going to be two big factors in the outcome of this game.

Can the Jacks contain Moriani?
And after a season of playing at 1,600 feet, how will the Jacks lungs feel at 3,200?

[zooropa]

Re: Let's talk about the game: SDSU at Montana

SIU also got the ball on the 5 yard line after the fumble on the punt attempt by Priddy, so tough to blame those 7 pts on the defense. And against Minnesota, the last FG was allowed after Minnesota recovered a fumble in the red zone. The defense kept them from scoring a TD, I don't think you can put that FG on the defense either.

Against NDSU Domino returned an INT for a TD.

That was in that game? I'd forgotten---thought it happened a week later vs. UNI.

BTW: can't really account for short field stuff (the botched punt & fumble) without getting into a whole other statistical hornet's nest. Average scoring drive would be an interesting number, which would account for some of the short yardage situations the defense has been put into.

[jackmd]

Re: Let's talk about the game: SDSU at Montana

Special Teams and the elevation in Missoula are going to be two big factors in the outcome of this game.

Can the Jacks contain Moriani?
And after a season of playing at 1,600 feet, how will the Jacks lungs feel at 3,200?

I'll be surprised if the elevation has a significant affect on our guys. They have played at SUU and the elevation didn't bother them. Ask the Wyoming men's BB team about SDSU athletes and conditioning.

[zooropa]

Re: Let's talk about the game: SDSU at Montana

how will the Jacks lungs feel at 3,200?

Oh please. That's not even high altitude baking level.

From what I understand, altitude sickness is not a problem below 6,000 feet or so.

[zooropa]

Re: Let's talk about the game: SDSU at Montana

Ask the Wyoming men's BB team about SDSU athletes and conditioning.

Or the SUU men's XC team.

[GrizFanStuckInUtah]

Re: Let's talk about the game: SDSU at Montana

Altitude will have ZERO effect on this game, same as the weather IMHO. Both of these factors I think we can agree are the same for both teams. I mountain bike in Utah at 8k-11k, it does start to bother you then. But Missoula is not very high, won't be a problem at all.