The Game, Frisco, TX, May 16, 1 pm CDT

[jakejc795]

I tend to be in the "respect all opponents regardless of our and their records/reputations, until they give you reason not to" camp.

Fair enough, and I tend to agree (you'll notice I didn't refer to them as "soft" ). However, I don't think it's inaccurate to say that their defense hasn't exactly been stout, particularly when some of the same folks saying Schmid's likely to dissect the Jacks' defense minimize Bearkat defensive deterioration

I also think some of the ridicule is macro/grounded in their conference ties -- some wonder if they're a paper tiger whose stats (both offensive and defensive) are padded by a Southland schedule

[filbert]

Raining in Frisco. Rabbit Running Rain. Righteous!

[LetsGoRabbits]

yeah this whole SOFT conversation is silly. ONLY ONE person here EVER used that word, and he said that it was what some other group was calling them, then proceeded to say that he did NOT buy into the soft label.

beyond that, the person who said it was milbank, who i am not sure really has anything at all to do with the jacks. the guy from shsu has as many posts as he does and he said himself that he does not even watch football!!!!! he pays attention to it for ONE reason- gambling.

i actually think he simply has some sports betting business and he comes on here to push that. i would actually like to see his posts be limited to their own thread going forward, not everyone who comes here to read about the jacks is interested in gambling

all that said, i think shsu is a fantastic, excellent, explosive, dangerous football team. but the conference comparison clearly would be a reason to favor the jacks. i believe the 2nd place team in their conference was SE louisiana, who obviously lost to the 5th place team in the mvfc and gave up over 50 points to them

that is absolutely NOT a reason to make assumptions, but it is a reason to question their competition beyond the last two games. if you watched that texas football video, the guy there said that the kats were the more tested team because they played ndsu and jmu this year and we did not have to play them in the playoffs. HA effing HA!!!! duh dude we played the bison in our last game prior to the playoffs

anyway, i think no matter how you do the comparison thing it favors the jacks, unfortunately that is far from a guarantee. i will say what i have said all along and then i am done until after the game. i absolutely believe that the jacks are the better team. but the kats are very good and in a one game scenario the jacks absolutely need to bring their best effort of the year in EVERY facet of the game

i believe that is what they are prepared to do and what they will do!!! GO RABBITS!!!

[jakejc795]

What a game! Just as our system called it. Lots of money lost today. The moneyline was really out of whack. We speculated that people were incorrectly under the impression they were still soft Houston. Not anymore

Sam Houston was not soft. They had that can tied to their tail going in because they always faded after cleaning house on the big sky during the playoffs.

The Kats are headed to a new WAC, stated goal FBS. The will be a super power for the remainder of their FCS stint.

Once again we called the upset, identified a very profitable proposition and proved out correct on moneyline, winner with points but did not get the over/under for 2 out of 3.

We will be back next season covering the MVFC and the top teams in the FCS with a leg up on most, we have the game analyzer mechanism. Sorry it didnt go our way today. I was prepared. We announced the winner early in the week. See you next season.

Congratulations, did your game analyzer predict the number of "Avera Minute" PSA in-game interruptions?

Seriously though, guess I shouldn't expect an admission that Gronowski's early injury influenced your algorithm's purported accuracy

The brief video of the SHSU player shouting into the camera "that's what the f*ck we do" on live TV after their win, their defenders taking shots to Jacks' players' helmets, and Keeler's sideline antics solidified their place among my "unrootables"

[LetsGoRabbits]

have to agree with you jake. but after watching keeler antics and listening to him after the game last week i did not expect anything different from him!!!! he LITERALLY wined about the ball in the endzone to #12 being a TD for 5 minutes, cannot expect your players to play with class when you NEVER demonstrate it yourself

some of his players play with class and character DESPITE thieir coach, but yes their sportsmanship left more than a little to be desired

wow the announcers kept going on and on and on and on...... about the D Line guy that transferred from TX Tech and what a GREAT human he is. excellent football player NO DOUBT! he was a total pain in our butt today!!!! but several times he was hitting people after the whistle, and pushing, and chesting up to people and talking crap

[AZjack]

Keeler is a transfer coach, not a development coach. Sam Houston is an also ran academically and will struggle mightily if they go FBS.

[Milbank]

Congratulations, did your game analyzer predict the number of "Avera Minute" PSA in-game interruptions?

Seriously though, guess I shouldn't expect an admission that Gronowski's early injury influenced your algorithm's purported accuracy

The brief video of the SHSU player shouting into the camera "that's what the f*ck we do" on live TV after their win, their defenders taking shots to Jacks' players' helmets, and Keeler's sideline antics solidified their place among my "unrootables"

Acknowledgment and response

Those things are all inconsequential. Part of the random chaos. If not that something else. The numbers said SHSU was good enough to beat the Jacks with or without Gronowski but not by much. As disappointed as any one else I had no doubt in the numbers.

CLAIM:

This board saw the only correct prognostication. Every active sports book I saw had this one wrong. Midas was wrong we were right. It happens a lot. 70-75% I would say regarding winner and points, O/U and moneyline.

Why was Midas wrong?

The betting crowds thought SHSU was soft.

EVIDENCE:

Obviously both teams were good and equally matched

however,

SHSU playing in the weak conference, weak ooc schedules, losing in the playoffs after cutting through the big sky and SDSU playing in the very tough MVFC was misleading.Sure the obscure expert was disappointed with the numbers but they dont often lie. The teams were good and evenly matched.
Both had beaten the Bison.

the conference comparison clearly would be a reason to favor the jacks. i believe the 2nd place team in their conference was SE louisiana, who obviously lost to the 5th place team in the mvfc and gave up over 50 points to them

I don't think it's inaccurate to say that their defense hasn't exactly been stout

It had the potential to be a great game, it was. SHSU +6, $109 to win $100 was crazy as we saw. The moneyline (even up) was insane with SDSU requiring $250 to wn $100! Maybe people thought of soft Houston from the past?

CONCLUSION:

The system is an uncanny predictor of football Its value is in separating the wheat from the chaff with regard to the vegas lines of spread, over/under and money-line

This time the wheat was SHSU +6.

[jakejc795]

Acknowledgment and response

Those things are all inconsequential. Part of the random chaos. If not that something else. The numbers said SHSU was good enough to beat the Jacks with or without Gronowski but not by much. As disappointed as any one else I had no doubt in the numbers.

CLAIM:

This board saw the only correct prognostication. Every active sports book I saw had this one wrong. Midas was wrong we were right. It happens a lot. 70-75% I would say regarding winner and points, O/U and moneyline.

Why was Midas wrong?

The betting crowds thought SHSU was soft.

EVIDENCE:

Obviously both teams were good however,

SHSU playing in the weak conference, weak ooc schedules, losing in the playoffs after cutting through the big sky and SDSU playing in the very tough MVFC was misleading.

Sure the obscure expert was disappointed with the numbers but they dont often lie. The teams were good and evenly matched. Both had beaten the Bison. It had the potential to be a great game, it was. SHSU +6 was crazy as we saw. The moneyline (even up) was insane with SDSU requiring $250 to wn $100! Maybe people thought of soft Houston from the past?

CONCLUSION:

The system is an uncanny predictor of football Its value is in separating the wheat from the chaff with regard to the vegas lines of spread, over/under and moneyline. This time the wheat was SHSU +6.

Post hoc attribution to randomness is not proof your system is any better for bettors, and saying a key player's injury is inconsequential is disingenuous at best.

What it is is proof of why I'll never bet on sports.

Just curious, what did your system say the outcome of the Marker game and first SIU win would be?

[jakejc795]

have to agree with you jake. but after watching keeler antics and listening to him after the game last week i did not expect anything different from him!!!! he LITERALLY wined about the ball in the endzone to #12 being a TD for 5 minutes, cannot expect your players to play with class when you NEVER demonstrate it yourself

some of his players play with class and character DESPITE thieir coach, but yes their sportsmanship left more than a little to be desired

wow the announcers kept going on and on and on and on...... about the D Line guy that transferred from TX Tech and what a GREAT human he is. excellent football player NO DOUBT! he was a total pain in our butt today!!!! but several times he was hitting people after the whistle, and pushing, and chesting up to people and talking crap

I'll allow getting caught in the moment, but I thought that player's reaction was crass, and I'd have no objections to punishment being levied.

Wallace (#95) was one of the players, and I'm not sure what led to he and his Red Raider teammates' suspensions in 2019, but I agree that both commentators focused much of their praise on the Bearkats, until Davis started gashing them with his long gains, the Jacks made it close, and then eventaully took the lead

[goon]

When the announcers clearly didnt know anything about the jacks and i think were the crew that work the shsu jmu game so were atleast familiar with them.

[goon]

Or when their guy shoves Heide right on the throat and dont call it. I think we got away with a roughing the passer at least on tv it looked that way. To bad the field conditions had to affect the game. Why not move it to a artificial field were atleast drainage can be managed better.

Today feels like a bad hangover where it almost feels like the game was stolen from us.

One last note. Davis imho proved he was the best player on the field and in the fcs. Also when we had the ball after hislong td run i think coaches missed going with the hot hand. Not that strong couldnt bust a long run but his running style and cuts were able to slow him up. Davis and his strong running style he could deal with the field better.

[TransAmBison]

Congrats on the season. You did the MVFC proud...taking the Bearkats to the wire with your backup qb playing almost the entire game. I know how hard it is to play as it is against the Bearkat defense this year as is...but to have to do it with the backup...that was impressive...and then that weather. Just can't have a nice weather championship it seems. Hope your qb makes a full recovery and is ready for the start of the next season. Hope those that went to Frisco had a blast and ate plenty of barbecue and tex-mex food.

[LetsGoRabbits]

thanks TAB, this is definitely going to leave a scar!!! and by that i mean it NEVER goes away!!! this is like A hansen and C stoebner junior year when we lost to metro in region final and they destroyed everyone in elite 8 i am still sad when i think about that and the jacks should have been champs.

same way here!!!! i dont care WHAT the silly gambling guy says about his silly gambling model and randomness!!!! you cannot predict randomness because you have NO IDEA what team it will favor!!!! therefore, you predict what WOULD and SHOULD happen MOST of the time.

before the game i said i believe we beat shsu 6-6.5 out of 10 games. now i think easily 7 to 7.5 we were ONE HUNDRED PERCENT the better team!!!! we still outgained them for the game and we had ONE option on offense!!!! RUN the ball with our RBs they did not have to worry at all about anything else and they still got destroyed by our running game

give us ANY actual D1 healthy QB and more often than not we beat them by double digits. we actually pretty much dominated them on both lines!!! they never threw a single deep ball because they had NO TIME!!! their ONE big play was a 3 yard hitch that turned into a TD with the help of a blatant hold/ tackle of our LB which was pretty much happening all day.

anyway enough of that. we were the CLEAR better team, but in a one game scenario sometimes the better team does not win.

it will definitely help if we stay healthy and win it in the fall, but LOTS of things can happen between here and there. and even if we win for me it will feel like we should be talking about back to back

anyway, thanks again and i REALLY hope in the fall we make the dakota marker the championship game in frisco

[TransAmBison]

thanks TAB, this is definitely going to leave a scar!!! and by that i mean it NEVER goes away!!! this is like A hansen and C stoebner junior year when we lost to metro in region final and they destroyed everyone in elite 8 i am still sad when i think about that and the jacks should have been champs.

same way here!!!! i dont care WHAT the silly gambling guy says about his silly gambling model and randomness!!!! you cannot predict randomness because you have NO IDEA what team it will favor!!!! therefore, you predict what WOULD and SHOULD happen MOST of the time.

before the game i said i believe we beat shsu 6-6.5 out of 10 games. now i think easily 7 to 7.5 we were ONE HUNDRED PERCENT the better team!!!! we still outgained them for the game and we had ONE option on offense!!!! RUN the ball with our RBs they did not have to worry at all about anything else and they still got destroyed by our running game

give us ANY actual D1 healthy QB and more often than not we beat them by double digits. we actually pretty much dominated them on both lines!!! they never threw a single deep ball because they had NO TIME!!! their ONE big play was a 3 yard hitch that turned into a TD with the help of a blatant hold/ tackle of our LB which was pretty much happening all day.

anyway enough of that. we were the CLEAR better team, but in a one game scenario sometimes the better team does not win.

it will definitely help if we stay healthy and win it in the fall, but LOTS of things can happen between here and there. and even if we win for me it will feel like we should be talking about back to back

anyway, thanks again and i REALLY hope in the fall we make the dakota marker the championship game in frisco

The reffing was "interesting"...but I will say it was "interesting" for both sides. SDSU got an easy first score because of the weather...and got handed another, but the weather took that one away as well. Losing your qb really hurt in how to determine what the final would have been. No matter the qb, SDSU wouldn't have had a lot of time...Sam Houston got pressure on everybody. Honestly, I expected SDSU to falter as they have had a tough time on big road games in the past...especially when traveling so far...and the excitement of the championship...I thought it might be too big...being there for the first time. It didn't seem to effect SDSU at all...so I was completely wrong on that. Really hate to see your qb go down...I don't really want NDSU to have to face him, but I don't want him injured either...rather face you at full strength and may the better team win...and this year it wasn't close.

I also would not say it is clear who the better team was...between SDSU, JMU, and Sam Houston...it was pretty close...any given day. I would even say SIU could be thrown in there for having a decent chance of winning any of those games. Then there is the rest...including NDSU...that were not on that level this year. Sam Houston mustered up the perfect drive...talking up basically all remaining time, converted two 4th downs, and then finished. Would have been better if you'd had your starter in for the whole thing...then no what ifs. However you look at it, it was the most successful season you guys have had...and it is a young team...so I guess we better be ready.

[goon]

thanks TAB, this is definitely going to leave a scar!!! and by that i mean it NEVER goes away!!! this is like A hansen and C stoebner junior year when we lost to metro in region final and they destroyed everyone in elite 8 i am still sad when i think about that and the jacks should have been champs.

same way here!!!! i dont care WHAT the silly gambling guy says about his silly gambling model and randomness!!!! you cannot predict randomness because you have NO IDEA what team it will favor!!!! therefore, you predict what WOULD and SHOULD happen MOST of the time.

before the game i said i believe we beat shsu 6-6.5 out of 10 games. now i think easily 7 to 7.5 we were ONE HUNDRED PERCENT the better team!!!! we still outgained them for the game and we had ONE option on offense!!!! RUN the ball with our RBs they did not have to worry at all about anything else and they still got destroyed by our running game

give us ANY actual D1 healthy QB and more often than not we beat them by double digits. we actually pretty much dominated them on both lines!!! they never threw a single deep ball because they had NO TIME!!! their ONE big play was a 3 yard hitch that turned into a TD with the help of a blatant hold/ tackle of our LB which was pretty much happening all day.

anyway enough of that. we were the CLEAR better team, but in a one game scenario sometimes the better team does not win.

it will definitely help if we stay healthy and win it in the fall, but LOTS of things can happen between here and there. and even if we win for me it will feel like we should be talking about back to back

anyway, thanks again and i REALLY hope in the fall we make the dakota marker the championship game in frisco

Was that the game that Schantz got undercut for a last second lay up attempt in Frost and it was pretty obvious a foul and would have shot free throws but the refs totally let it go. At least thats how i remember it. Was it a kid from Australia who put up like 35 against us, a career shooting performance and just heart breaking.