Bracketology

[SanDakotaState]

Re: Bracketology

SDSU certainty deserves to be in the conversation as an at-large. Their resume is just as good as the rest of the bubble teams. They way you get around playing in 1-bid conference is by scheduling the way SDSU did. SMU only scheduled cupcakes in the ooc and they got left out of the men's tournament because of it. You can say that they played inconsistent but they only lost 2 conference game, 1 which happened to be in the conference tournament. If the men's committee is anything like the women's committee i like our chances. To say we don't belong or don't have a shot is stupid imo. They would be in the tournament if the women's tournament fielded 68 teams instead of 64. If SDSU doesn't get in, they are getting a 1 seed in the WNIT.

TV did a great job comparing all the bubble teams:

26. Bowling Green State (27-4)
Best wins: Central Michigan, Ohio State
Strike against: Lost in conference semis
39. Florida State (20-11)
Best wins: Michigan State, Florida, Syracuse)
42. SDSU (22-9)
Best wins: Penn State, Central Michigan
Strike against: Lost in conference semis
43. Vanderbilt (18-12)
Best wins: Dayton, Tennessee, Texas A&M, LSU, Georgia
Strike against: Went 2-9 down the stretch
44. Minnesota (20-12)
Best wins: Ohio State
56. South Florida (19-12)
Best wins: Rutgers
59. Oklahoma (18-14)
Best wins: Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Texas
63. Florida (19-12)
Best wins: Florida State, Kentucky (twice)

[OldHare]

Re: Bracketology

The WNIT selections will be announced around 8 pm. We could always hope that there is an opening for the Jackrabbits in the NCAA. It would almost make me write a letter to Santa if SDSU women made the Big Dance. I do not subscribe to the notion that the Summit cannot have an at large bid as much as we have not earned that platitude of consistent play OOC and there is not another strong RPI women's team in the Summit. The MVC on the men's side will have that same complexion now that Creighton has left and no other team has risen to a higher level of play. Irregardless, the season is not finished..

[witness]

Re: Bracketology

SDSU certainty deserves to be in the conversation as an at-large. Their resume is just as good as the rest of the bubble teams. They way you get around playing in 1-bid conference is by scheduling the way SDSU did. SMU only scheduled cupcakes in the ooc and they got left out of the men's tournament because of it. You can say that they played inconsistent but they only lost 2 conference game, 1 which happened to be in the conference tournament. If the men's committee is anything like the women's committee i like our chances. To say we don't belong or don't have a shot is stupid imo. They would be in the tournament if the women's tournament fielded 68 teams instead of 64. If SDSU doesn't get in, they are getting a 1 seed in the WNIT.

TV did a great job comparing all the bubble teams:

26. Bowling Green State (27-4)
Best wins: Central Michigan, Ohio State
Strike against: Lost in conference semis
39. Florida State (20-11)
Best wins: Michigan State, Florida, Syracuse)
42. SDSU (22-9)
Best wins: Penn State, Central Michigan
Strike against: Lost in conference semis
43. Vanderbilt (18-12)
Best wins: Dayton, Tennessee, Texas A&M, LSU, Georgia
Strike against: Went 2-9 down the stretch
44. Minnesota (20-12)
Best wins: Ohio State
56. South Florida (19-12)
Best wins: Rutgers
59. Oklahoma (18-14)
Best wins: Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Texas
63. Florida (19-12)
Best wins: Florida State, Kentucky (twice)

Exactly. SMUs OOC SOS killed them. Also, Wisconsin-Green Bay was considered a snub in the mens and the jacks have a similar resume.

[filbert]

Re: Bracketology

Reality check: SDSU's RPI in WBB is #49.

Below them in RPI are 19 teams with automatic bids. That leaves 45 open spots in the 64-team women's tournament field.

Say hello to a #1 seed in the WNIT.

(My RPI's came from here: http://www.rpiratings.com/womensrpi.php )

[jackmd]

Re: Bracketology

Some are missing a larger point. Maybe it doesn't apply to women's selections. There is a belief and it is repeated by many "experts" that some conferences are one bid conferences. Example, NDSU men this year. Good RPI, decent SOS, several respectable OOC wins. According to the experts they had no chance at an at-large due to the Summit league being a one bid conference.

I think even if this bias is not real or consistent the SDSU women are left out. Just not a good enough OOC resume. Reality check is this, the Summit league title game involved two teams with RPIs around 150. RPI is only one factor in the decision making process.

An at-large bid for SDSU women this year would be on the basis of their SOS and their reputation. I'm a huge Jackrabbit fan and I hope they get an at large bid. I'll stop short of saying I think they deserve one. That doesn't make me any less of a fan. I think there are more deserving teams in the at-large pool.

The point about 19 auto bid teams with a lower RPI isn't relevant to the at large bid discussion. I'm not suggesting Filbert is saying its relevant either. Its an observation I presume.

[filbert]

Re: Bracketology

Some are missing a larger point. Maybe it doesn't apply to women's selections. There is a belief and it is repeated by many "experts" that some conferences are one bid conferences. Example, NDSU men this year. Good RPI, decent SOS, several respectable OOC wins. According to the experts they had no chance at an at-large due to the Summit league being a one bid conference.

I think even if this bias is not real or consistent the SDSU women are left out. Just not a good enough OOC resume. Reality check is this, the Summit league title game involved two teams with RPIs around 150. RPI is only one factor in the decision making process.

An at-large bid for SDSU women this year would be on the basis of their SOS and their reputation. I'm a huge Jackrabbit fan and I hope they get an at large bid. I'll stop short of saying I think they deserve one. That doesn't make me any less of a fan. I think there are more deserving teams in the at-large pool.

The point about 19 auto bid teams with a lower RPI isn't relevant to the at large bid discussion. I'm not suggesting Filbert is saying its relevant either. Its an observation I presume.

Simple math meets conference tournament upsets.

The fact is that, love it or hate it (I tend towards hate--it's a terribly clumsy and inaccurate rating system--probably invented by an IPFW grad--that's a joke, son) the NCAA selection committees DO look at RPI and consider it in their selection process.

Here comes the math . . .

The fact is that there are 32 at-large bids available, and 32 automatic bids. 19 of those automatic bids have gone to teams lower than SDSU's RPI of 49 (and so, 13 will go to teams with a higher RPI than SDSU's).

The fact is that in the RPI, there are 36 at-large bid candidate teams ahead of SDSU's RPI of 49 in the running for 32 at-large bids. ((48 - 13)=36) So yes, the 19 auto-bids with RPIs below SDSU's is a factor. This is why commentators go on about upset winners in conference tournaments "bursting somebody's bubble." The low-RPI conference winner takes up a slot in the tournament.

Case in point: Akron, sitting at RPI 76 has an automatic bid, when the highest RPI of a Mid-American Conference team looks to be Bowling Green at 32 followed by Central Michigan at 40. So, going strictly by RPI, the MAC looks like they'll get 3 teams in the tournament instead of the 2 that (by RPI) they were "entitled" to. And somebody who otherwise would have qualified as an at-large goes to the WNIT.

Looking at it another way, 13 automatic bids with RPIs greater than SDSU's, plus 32 at-large bids, gets you to 45 schools. SDSU's RPI is 48. This is "close but no cigar" territory.

Now, the committee does look at other things like out-of-conference strength-of-schedule, and last-ten-game performance, and things like that, but every report I've ever read or seen regarding the deliberations of NCAA men's or women's basketball selection committees have all indicated that RPI most certainly is a relevant consideration for the committees.

There is because of the non-RPI factors a non-zero chance of SDSU still being included in the NCAA field. I don't see it as being a very good chance, however, given the (RPI-based) strength of schedules of the squads around where SDSU is in the RPI. SDSU's strength-of-schedule is comparable to most of the others, which means it isn't sufficiently greater than the others to IMHO bump them up.

And so, I expect a rather high seed and probably one or more home games in the WNIT to be announced later tonight. I will be more than delighted to be proven wrong by the committee, however.

[YanktonJack7]

Re: Bracketology

It's official: No NCAA tournament this year.

WNIT pairings will be released later tonight.

[Evolution Prime]

Re: Bracketology

Not even a first four out team.

[YanktonJack7]

Re: Bracketology

Saw Minnesota didn't make it either. Would be neat in the later rounds of the WNIT if they were sent to Frost.

[hareball]

Re: Bracketology

Here is the 64 team field for the WNIT http://www.womensnit.com/showstory.a...ent&eventid=41 The bracket is to be released tonight between 10 & 11PM CDT

[YanktonJack7]

Re: Bracketology

Jacks host Butler on Thursday night. Winner gets the Creighton/Missouri winner.

[jackmd]

Re: Bracketology

Not even a first four out team.

Summit is a one bid league. I don't make the rules just live and abide by them.

[SoDakJack]

Re: Bracketology

Summit is a one bid league. I don't make the rules just live and abide by them.

When SDSU wins the conference tournament the one-bid league is a no-brainer. When SDSU loses in the semis suddenly there was talk of them being on the bubble. That just tells me how the committee looks at the conference.

[jackdaniel]

Re: Bracketology

My take on this,if a team is good enough,on their own merit,like the 2008-2009 Team was,with a strong OOC schedule and lots of wins over BCS schools,no matter if you play in a typical one bid Conference or not,if your resume looks good,you should win an at large bid.Unfortunately ,with the NCAA Selection Committee,not alway's the case.

[filbert]

Re: Bracketology

Summit is a one bid league. I don't make the rules just live and abide by them.

If SDSU had beaten either Stanford or Notre Dame this year, and everything else being equal including the SDSU semi-final loss to USD, the Summit would have been a two-bid league this year.

It is not written in stone in the halls of the NCAA headquarters in Indianapolis that The Summit League Shall Forevermore Be A One Bid League, any more than it is written that The SEC Shall Forevermore Receive Eight Bids Every Year.

The Summit needs more schools to have more out-of-conference success, which raises status (and RPI).

Now, if somebody could just do something about #@$#$ UConn . . .