Nagy is "back"

[1stRowFANatic]

Re: Nagy is "back"

I think my main point was that losing our seniors (and we hate to see them go) will hurt us less than it may hurt some other teams in the conference, because statistically the strength of this year's team is actually in the junior class, not the senior class (like you might think, looking at Kai and Garrett's careers).

AND our incoming freshmen (especially factoring in White coming off a medical redshirt to essentially a second freshman year) might be as good or better than anyone else in the league.

That adds up to a good trend. Plenty for the guys to work towards in the off-season.

It's entirely possible that they might take a step back next season but it seems to me more likely we'll see at least the same as we saw this year, and probably a somewhat better performance because of an overall somewhat deeper team. And if some of the newcomers really pan out, we will develop into a seriously tough out for anyone else in the league by tournament time 2011.

I saw lots of numbers, the word spreadsheet, and thought I would summarize without reading it. I was pretty sure I knew where you were coming from (and I agree). How close was I?

[filbert]

Re: Nagy is "back"

I saw lots of numbers, the word spreadsheet, and thought I would summarize without reading it. I was pretty sure I knew where you were coming from (and I agree). How close was I?

Hell, I dunno . . .

[SUPERBUNNY]

Re: Nagy is "back"

Anybody who thinks that this year's team will be the best one of the next three years simply hasn't been paying attention.

Here's why (warning--really long):

Silly me, I went in search of facts, so I opened up a spreadsheet and played for a while. (This year's stats as of March 3, 2010.)

SDSU's graduating seniors this year account for about 29% of minutes played, 30% of rebounds, and 33% of points scored.
(Garrett Callahan, Williams, Engen)
SDSU's junior class this year accounts for 44% of minutes, 41% of rebounds, 41% of points.
(Sargent, Cordova, Moss, Palarca, Tivis)
SDSU's sophomore class accounts for 9% of minutes, 12% of rebounds, 6% of points.
(Grif. Callahan, Pederson, Cassaday)
SDSU's freshman class accounts for 18% of minutes, 17% of rebounds, 20% of points.
(Wolters, Fiegen, White (Med RS), Rader, Carlson (RS))

For comparison, some other teams:

NDSU's championship team last year--their seniors were 59% of minutes, 59% of rebounds, and 72% of points scored.
(Woodside, Winkelman, Nelson, Moormann, Riley)

Let's talk IUPUI, who had about the same kind of year last year as SDSU did this year (more or less) . . .
IUPUI finished 9-9 in the conference and 16-14 overall (somewhat similar to SDSU this year):

IUPUI's seniors last year accounted for 15% of minutes, 5% of rebounds, 12% of points.
(Only one senior--Gary Patterson)

This year, IUPUI's seniors account for 43% of minutes, 54% of rebounds, 45% of points.
(Glenn, Avery, Pettiford)
IUPUI's junior class last year accounted for 38% of minutes, 57% of rebounds, 42% of points.
(Glenn, Avery, Pettiford)

This year, IUPUI's juniors account for 33% of minutes, 23% of rebounds, 24% of points.
(Nobles, Moss, Ashworth, Williams)
As sophomores last year, this class accounted for 31% of minutes, 22% of rebounds, 25% of points.
(Nobles, Moss, Ashworth, Williams)

This year, IUPUI's sophomores account for 18% of minutes, 19% of rebounds, 27% of points.
(Young, Siakam)
As freshmen last year, this class accounted for 16% of minutes, 16% of rebounds, 20% of points.
(Young, Stone, Morris, Siakam, Smeathers, McDaniel)

This year, IUPUI's freshmen account for 6% of minutes, 3% of rebounds, 5% of points.
(Rice, Esposito, Litteral, Mazanowski)


Let's talk IPFW, who also has tracked with SDSU, maybe a bit better last year, a bit worse this year:
Last year's IPFW team finished 8-8 in the Summit and 13-17 overall, with their seniors accounting for 22% of minutes, 26% of rebounds, and 28% of points scored.

Last year's IPFW seniors accounted for about 22% of minutes, 26% of rebounds, 28% of points.

This year's IPFW seniors account for about 27% of minutes, 36% of rebounds, and 33% of points.
(Yearby, Daniels)
The IPFW junior class last year accounted for 28% of minutes, 37% of rebounds, and 29% of points.
(Yearby, Daniels, A. Richie)

This year's IPFW juniors account for 46% of minutes, 36% of rebounds, 39% of points.
Botts, Plackemeier,Snead, Kovalov)
As sophomores last year, they accounted for 32% of minutes, 21% of rebounds, 29% of points.
(Botts, Plackemeyer, Mocevic, Br. Richie)

This year's IPFW sophomores account for 21% of minutes, 22% of rebounds, 22% of points.
(Mixon, McCorkle, Peckinpaugh, Beach)
As freshmen last year, they accounted for 18% of minutes, 16% of rebounds, 13% of points.
(Mixon, McCorkle, Peckinpaugh, Bembrey, Beach)

This year, IPFW's freshmen accounted for about 7% of minutes, 7% of rebounds, 6% of points.

What does all this mean?
It's a pretty darn small sample size to draw any definitive conclusions, but . . .
SDSU depends more this year on its junior class than it does on the senior class. SDSU's junior and freshmen classes this year appear to be relatively strong, but the sophomore class is very, very weak. Our senior class this year is (by the percentages here, anyway) not one that we can reasonably expect to ride to a regular season championship--not like NDSU's was last year or IUPUI's is this year, anyway. (I know Oakland won this year, but IUPUI's year last year was more similar to this year for SDSU than Oakland's was.) If Engen had been able to grab more effective minutes in the post, it might have pushed our senior class towards that level, but things playing out the way they did, and especially with Garrett C's back problems towards the end of the year, the production from the entire senior class was not enough to get SDSU over the finish line this year.

Our senior class next year--Sargent, Moss, Cordova, Palarca, and Tivis--are more or less what they're going to be. They may be able to refine and improve on certain areas of their play, but we pretty much know what kind of players they're going to be next year. If this group can increase their minutes, rebounds, and scoring percentages over this year's numbers, especially given the young guns coming in behind them, then we could very well improve over this year's record.

Our junior class next year--Grif. Callahan, Cassaday, and Pederson--well, the younger Callahan's game should be somewhat better next year, as he has a pretty well defined role. Cassaday--I think a lot of how this team will do next year may depend on if he can emerge as a more potent offensive and defensive player. If Cassaday is playing a lot next season, and playing effectively, the Jacks just might be a pretty good team. If he's not, then we're going to be depending a lot on some awfully young players to get things done. This team won't be able to depend only on Sargent to score--at least one and preferably more than one other consistent scorers will need to emerge to duplicate or better this year's record.

Next year's sophomores--Wolters, Fiegen, Rader: Wolters will get a lot of minutes at the point and will quite likely be starting point guard all season long. Fiegen, if he puts on some bulk and works on mechanics and other -- you know -- basketball stuff -- should be able to increase his minutes too. He'd better, because I'm not sure if we can win with Cordova as the starting center, and Dykstra and Heemstra will be coming in behind him looking for playing time. I don't have much of a read on Rader, so I'll just let my Cassaday comments stand for him as well. If he's giving the team 5-10 or more good minutes a game, then we're going to be all right. The hoary old saw is that players improve the most between the freshman and sophomore years. You don't really see that too well from my small sample size, but it's something to look forward to.

The incoming freshmen class, including the redshirts--White, Carlson, Heemstra, Dykstra: The real key to how 2010-11 will go may be if two or more of these guys have freshman years as good as Wolters has been this year. If we get that level of production from more than one of the freshmen, we'll have a chance to be pretty good, especially by the end of the year. White was performing passably well as a true freshman before his hand injury. The unplanned redshirt year after his taste of college competition should mean he'll be better than your average redshirt freshman. We all know the expectations swirling around Dykstra, and Heemstra's length will not hurt, either.

(Sorry for any inadvertent or vertent name mis-spellings here . . . )

Fantastic post filbert. That pretty much sums up everything I had to say in a much more concise form. Points coming!

GB, GB, GJ!

SUPERBUNNY

[jackmd]

Re: Nagy is "back"

What Filbert said. Kai and Garret are nice young men and very good basketball players. They have had great careers but are ultimately replaceable just like the many who have come before them. We could argue forever about the best SDSU players ever. I'd stand by one guy (Mark Tetzlaff) as the best ever and the one guy who couldn't be replaced.

This year isn't over. When it is, there will be a new year. It will be different, it will be interesting, it will be fun.

[1bunnies]

Re: Nagy is "back"

What Filbert said. Kai and Garret are nice young men and very good basketball players. They have had great careers but are ultimately replaceable just like the many who have come before them. We could argue forever about the best SDSU players ever. I'd stand by one guy (Mark Tetzlaff) as the best ever and the one guy who couldn't be replaced.

This year isn't over. When it is, there will be a new year. It will be different, it will be interesting, it will be fun.

No Hamlin bias there. Your to young to remember Colburn and the Thomas brothers. Mark was good, but I wouldn't call him the greatest. Mark's first couple of years he only shot free throws slightly better than AC.

[jacks1]

Re: Nagy is "back"

No Hamlin bias there. Your to young to remember Colburn and the Thomas brothers. Mark was good, but I wouldn't call him the greatest. Mark's first couple of years he only shot free throws slightly better than AC.

When you are the school's all-time leading scorer, I'd say that makes you better than 'good'. Also, to mention AC in the same sentence as Mark....all I'll say to that is YIKES!

[jackmd]

Re: Nagy is "back"

No Hamlin bias there. Your to young to remember Colburn and the Thomas brothers. Mark was good, but I wouldn't call him the greatest. Mark's first couple of years he only shot free throws slightly better than AC.

I know the Thomas brothers and I am well aware of their accomplishments as well as Lee Colburns. We could argue about who is the best, I'll stick with Mark Tetzlaff. Nearly 2000 points in his career (would have had 2000 if he could have made FT's at a little higher %), over 1100 rebounds, all-NCC 3 years and NCC player of the year, Regional MVP and Final Four MVP in 1985.

He is #1 in career points and rebounds just ahead of Colburn and Dave Thomas, as he always will be.

So, even with a little Hamlin bias, I think the number would help support my argument. The teams he played on from 82-85 weren't too shabby either.

[SUPERBUNNY]

Re: Nagy is "back"

Can we get back to arguing about Nagy "being back"? Just kidding!

There's been a lot of great players over time. I hope we all make it to Sioux Falls to cheer on 3 great seniors and the rest of the team for as many games as they get to play.

IMHO, this thread could be locked up and a new one started down the road as there will no doubt be plenty of discussion after the Summit League Tournament no matter how everything turns out.

I have my Kerblastificator set to Mastadon!

GB, GB, GJ!

SUPERBUNNY

[Just in the crowd]

Re: Nagy is "back"

There were a number of comments in the Gents GDT thread referencing the fact that the "Old Nagy" is back.

I'll just say it.

Nagy is the same coach that was extremely succesful at D2 level and he has finally getting personnel in place to make a run at success at the next level. He is getting the needed recruits to be a perenniel contender in the Summitt League. And the best part is that he is a quality person that cares about his players.

Transition to D1 is a brutal process for MBB and hats off to Nagy for getting us through it. I'm glad the previous and current AD's have stuck with him. He's been good to SDSU and deserved the opportunity to see things through transition.

It drove me nuts with all the comments the last few years about whether or not Nagy is a D1 caliber coach. He is a solid coach period! As a matter of fact, he has probably learned a lot going throught the last few years. We can finally put that other crap behind us and solidly get behind him and this team.

Nobody has hated the struggles more than he and the coaches. I'm happy for them that things are turning around. Obviously its good for the fans as well.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinions and all of us have been frustrated. It feels great to be able to say that the future of MBB at SDSU is bright and in the capable hands of Coach Nagy and his staff. That is probably what we all wanted when transition began in 2004.

Good luck the rest of the way!

GB, GB, GJ!

SUPERBUNNY

Amen!!

[SDSUAlum08]

Re: Nagy is "back"

I know the Thomas brothers and I am well aware of their accomplishments as well as Lee Colburns. We could argue about who is the best, I'll stick with Mark Tetzlaff. Nearly 2000 points in his career (would have had 2000 if he could have made FT's at a little higher %), over 1100 rebounds, all-NCC 3 years and NCC player of the year, Regional MVP and Final Four MVP in 1985.

He is #1 in career points and rebounds just ahead of Colburn and Dave Thomas, as he always will be.

So, even with a little Hamlin bias, I think the number would help support my argument. The teams he played on from 82-85 weren't too shabby either.

Who are the Thomas brothers?

[jackmd]

Re: Nagy is "back"

Who are the Thomas brothers?

There were 6 of them, born in Alexandria and moved to Onida. John and Dave were both great players at SDSU in the late 60's and early 70's. Dave is a Pulmonologist in Sioux Falls. He was recently inducted into the SD hall of fame, John before that. I don't know the others.

http://www.argusleader.com/print/art...-of-Fame-class

[SDSUAlum08]

Re: Nagy is "back"

There were 6 of them, born in Alexandria and moved to Onida. John and Dave were both great players at SDSU in the late 60's and early 70's. Dave is a Pulmonologist in Sioux Falls. He was recently inducted into the SD hall of fame, John before that. I don't know the others.

http://www.argusleader.com/print/art...-of-Fame-class

That's what I thought. I know Dave. I asked him about State and he had some interesting stories about what he used to do up there. He is a very very nice guy. I'm proud to say he's a former Jackrabbit.

Thanks.

[boxerboy]

Re: Nagy is "back"

I know the Thomas brothers and I am well aware of their accomplishments as well as Lee Colburns. We could argue about who is the best, I'll stick with Mark Tetzlaff. Nearly 2000 points in his career (would have had 2000 if he could have made FT's at a little higher %), over 1100 rebounds, all-NCC 3 years and NCC player of the year, Regional MVP and Final Four MVP in 1985.

He is #1 in career points and rebounds just ahead of Colburn and Dave Thomas, as he always will be.

So, even with a little Hamlin bias, I think the number would help support my argument. The teams he played on from 82-85 weren't too shabby either.

Thomas brother Mel, also played for the Jacks.
I will not argue who is better but I believe that because Dave Thomas and Lee Colburn were on the same team they had to have an effect on the others career statistics at State.

[NoVaJack]

Re: Nagy is "back"

Who are the Thomas brothers?

Sacrilege!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[SDSUAlum08]

Re: Nagy is "back"

Sacrilege!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Haha. Obviously I'm younger as you can tell. Not familiar with the history of State. I figured it was Dave but I really couldn't tell you much about any of the other brothers. I actually knew Dave before I even knew he played for State.