Way Too Early 2022-2023 Summit League Outlook

[salemjack]

Decided to spend some free time looking at the future of the Summit League Men's basketball landscape instead of continually looking at bracketology over and over! There are some obvious trends and some major things that can change the way next year looks for the Summit League. It will also be cool to look back and see if I was anywhere close on these!

The main things that I see as the biggest influences on next year's season are:

• Does Max Abmas return to ORU for 1 last season?
  • I would assume he does not, it seems very likely that he either goes pro or transfers. But the option is still there.
• Where does Paul Bruns land?
  • USD is the rumored favorite, which has a major impact on the Summit League, but he could also transfer out of the conference, which makes it less of a big deal to the conference landscape as a whole.
• Does Friedel transfer?
  • Not turning this into another Friedel speculation thread, but if he were to transfer in the conference (most likely USD) it would be major. I am not sure he's transferring, and I am very skeptical of him going to USD. I would predict he goes somewhere out of the Summit but nobody knows...
• Can SDSU keep all their pieces?
  • Obviously, Baylor could play almost anywhere in the country, but other pieces could move on to. I don't predict anyone leaving but it's a possibility.
• Does Frankie Fidler stay at UNO?
  • The freshman had an incredible second half of the season, but with a coaching change and the struggle at UNO, he may be looking to move.
• Is AJ Plitz. back to his previous form?
  • I think he will be, but a serious injury like that cannot be understated.
• Any coaching changes?
  • Does Hendo leave? I don't think so. Richman, nah. Mills, nope. Jeter hasn't done enough to get other looks. Maybe Kyan Brown, assistant for NDSU, could leave for a head coaching job at the D2 ranks. But I do not see many coaching changes this cycle outside of the UNO hire TBD.
• The obvious impact of the transfer portal
  • I have listed some possible players leaving the league but there are a lot more who will transfer, other starters or role players looking to change their situations. The portal will also bring people in and you have to wonder what impact that will make. It is hard to predict but it does matter. Denver had a commit today. 6 foot 7 versatile player who averaged 11.4 points in 24.7 per game for Little Rock, scored 23 against Arkansas. Players like this can hopefully round out some of these bottom teams and improve the conference profile as a whole. I would also expect to see Paul Mills in the market for some transfers and he has the connection to bring some major impact in.

My Best Guess:

• Bruns to USD
• Friedel not playing in the Summit League
• Fiedler leaves the Summit League
• SDSU retains all pieces
• NDSU retains most/all pieces
• ORU- Abmas goes pro, Mills brings in a couple of impact transfers

Predicted Standings- School- Conference Record- Notes

1. South Dakota State 16-2 Essentially the same team except they lose the superstar impact of Doug Wilson, still a great team just slip up a couple times.
2. USD 14-4 With AJ and Bruns along with the whole returning squad from this season, USD has a great year
3. NDSU 13-5 A couple bumps replacing Griesel, Krueser, and Eady, but Grant Nelson and crew put together another good season
4. WIU 10-8 I really like Rob Jeter, and if Massner comes back I think they can have a really successful year
5. ORU 10-8 With Abmas gone, Angry little Paul Mills has a tough time replacing his superstar but still has a good program going.
6. Denver 9-9 With some good returners and good transfer additions, Denver puts together a solid year
7. UMKC 8-10 Losing a lot, tougher road ahead but they still pick up 8 wins with the huge drop off in league talent after them
8. St. Thomas 5-13 Losing Miller but have a good staff and really good incoming class, they will take their lumps but will find 4 wins as the D1 awe wears off.
9. UNO 3-15 With Fidler gone they really struggle with an empty cupboard.
10. UND 2-16 They just don't have anything after losing their FOY in Bruns.

POY: Baylor
COY: Todd Lee

The SDSU fans nightmare scenario: Bruns and Friedel to USD

1. USD 17-1
2. SDSU 16-2
3. NDSU 13-5
4. WIU 9-9
5. ORU 9-9
6. Denver 9-9
7. UMKC 8-10
8. St. Thomas 5-13
9. UNO 3-15
10. UND 2-16

If Everyone Stayed: Bruns recommits to UND, Fidler stays, Abmas stays, no other relevant transfers out

1. SDSU 15-3
2. ORU 14-4
3. NDSU 13-5
4. USD 13-5
5. WIU 9-9
6. Denver 9-9
7. UMKC 7-11
8. UNO 5-13
9. UND 4-14
10. St. Thomas 1-17

[LetsGoRabbits]

I dont want to begin the old noah conversation again either. i would think that would be very OBVIOUS

i am very curious to see what decisions will be made

on one hand it is almost impossible to see him staying

on the other hand, Hendo and the whole team talk about how they love each other. hendo has said over and over his teammates love noah and he loves them. THOSE thoughts seem incredibly TRUE at this point. i dont think anyone celebrated any more than noah did last night. he was right in the middle of all the antics and no doubt enjoying his teammates and the moment!!

i think him and doug rolled around on the court for about 10 seconds hugging)

it is not like he has been sitting at the end of the bench pouting. he is engaged , talking to his teammates, and celebrating successes

whatever happens, i am extremely proud of all of them for how they have handled this situation!!! i hope there is a way for him to stay and finish out his career without further incident. but i wish noah and everyone involved the very VERY BEST

i cannot imagine ANY way that he goes to usd. noah and everyone around him have to know that that would NOT make life more simple!! but if that is what happens, that will be one coyote who i will definitely cheer for!! not the team but him!! and i doubt that would be the prevailing position of rabbit fans but i hope it would be. i hope he would not be harassed and booed as many would expect in a scenario like that

my guess he stays at sdsu OR he plays out of the conference OR maybe stops playing basketball and possibly / probably stays at sdsu while not playing. and maybe it is just wishful but for some reason i lean toward him staying at sdsu. playing or not, i am not sure which

i have already spoken to the paul burns situation

i feel like i doubt he goes to usd but maybe there is more information out there than what we are hearing. i doubt he stays in the conference. maybe it has changed, but last i knew, a player actually had to sit for TWO years as opposed to one if he transfers within the same conference

i think you are right about Fidler at UNO and maybe most ot the other quality players also

i put it at 50/50 maybe a little better that Abmas stays at ORU. but somehow that still does not stop mills from being grumpy. i think probably a decent guy, but grumpy

[bigticket1]

I dont want to begin the old noah conversation again either. i would think that would be very OBVIOUS

i am very curious to see what decisions will be made

on one hand it is almost impossible to see him staying

on the other hand, Hendo and the whole team talk about how they love each other. hendo has said over and over his teammates love noah and he loves them. THOSE thoughts seem incredibly TRUE at this point. i dont think anyone celebrated any more than noah did last night. he was right in the middle of all the antics and no doubt enjoying his teammates and the moment!!

i think him and doug rolled around on the court for about 10 seconds hugging)

it is not like he has been sitting at the end of the bench pouting. he is engaged , talking to his teammates, and celebrating successes

whatever happens, i am extremely proud of all of them for how they have handled this situation!!! i hope there is a way for him to stay and finish out his career without further incident. but i wish noah and everyone involved the very VERY BEST

i cannot imagine ANY way that he goes to usd. noah and everyone around him have to know that that would NOT make life more simple!! but if that is what happens, that will be one coyote who i will definitely cheer for!! not the team but him!! and i doubt that would be the prevailing position of rabbit fans but i hope it would be. i hope he would not be harassed and booed as many would expect in a scenario like that

my guess he stays at sdsu OR he plays out of the conference OR maybe stops playing basketball and possibly / probably stays at sdsu while not playing. and maybe it is just wishful but for some reason i lean toward him staying at sdsu. playing or not, i am not sure which

i have already spoken to the paul burns situation

i feel like i doubt he goes to usd but maybe there is more information out there than what we are hearing. i doubt he stays in the conference. maybe it has changed, but last i knew, a player actually had to sit for TWO years as opposed to one if he transfers within the same conference

i think you are right about Fidler at UNO and maybe most ot the other quality players also

i put it at 50/50 maybe a little better that Abmas stays at ORU. but somehow that still does not stop mills from being grumpy. i think probably a decent guy, but grumpy

Zachary Dosch, who works for Midco in Fargo, had a tweet up about the Burns situation saying that there was definitely tampering going on. Just went to post a link, but it has been deleted, so take that for what it's worth.

[98Jackfarmer]

I dont want to begin the old noah conversation again either. i would think that would be very OBVIOUS

i am very curious to see what decisions will be made

on one hand it is almost impossible to see him staying

on the other hand, Hendo and the whole team talk about how they love each other. hendo has said over and over his teammates love noah and he loves them. THOSE thoughts seem incredibly TRUE at this point. i dont think anyone celebrated any more than noah did last night. he was right in the middle of all the antics and no doubt enjoying his teammates and the moment!!

i think him and doug rolled around on the court for about 10 seconds hugging)

it is not like he has been sitting at the end of the bench pouting. he is engaged , talking to his teammates, and celebrating successes

whatever happens, i am extremely proud of all of them for how they have handled this situation!!! i hope there is a way for him to stay and finish out his career without further incident. but i wish noah and everyone involved the very VERY BEST

i cannot imagine ANY way that he goes to usd. noah and everyone around him have to know that that would NOT make life more simple!! but if that is what happens, that will be one coyote who i will definitely cheer for!! not the team but him!! and i doubt that would be the prevailing position of rabbit fans but i hope it would be. i hope he would not be harassed and booed as many would expect in a scenario like that

my guess he stays at sdsu OR he plays out of the conference OR maybe stops playing basketball and possibly / probably stays at sdsu while not playing. and maybe it is just wishful but for some reason i lean toward him staying at sdsu. playing or not, i am not sure which

i have already spoken to the paul burns situation

i feel like i doubt he goes to usd but maybe there is more information out there than what we are hearing. i doubt he stays in the conference. maybe it has changed, but last i knew, a player actually had to sit for TWO years as opposed to one if he transfers within the same conference

i think you are right about Fidler at UNO and maybe most ot the other quality players also

i put it at 50/50 maybe a little better that Abmas stays at ORU. but somehow that still does not stop mills from being grumpy. i think probably a decent guy, but grumpy

This right here when it comes to Noah. If he never plays a meaningful minute for SDSU again I am plum fine with him staying on the team if it helps him heal himself.

[98Jackfarmer]

This right here when it comes to Noah. If he never plays a meaningful minute for SDSU again I am plum fine with him staying on the team if it helps him heal himself.

Past that there is nothing more to say as far as I am concerned.

[SteelSD]

Does USD really want Freidel after he nut punched Umude? Would you really transfer to a team you had that sort of history with?

[salemjack]

Maybe I should have just left Friedel out. I was afraid this was going to go this way.


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[LetsGoRabbits]

Maybe I should have just left Friedel out. I was afraid this was going to go this way.


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yep probably correct. sorry i took it further

[da_coach]

Good Speculation in a speculation thread.

Bruns is probably going to USD. (Doesn't he have to sit a year? I know they didn't after that Covid year, extra year of eligibility was granted)
I can see him sit a year, and wait for his brother and they will both go to USD.

Max will return to ORU if he has to sit a year. I don't think he can go pro this year. His shooting dropped off some, and ORU wasn't quite as good. NBA scouts will notice the "luck" NDSU had guarding him with size. Everyone in the NBA has big guards. If he doesn't have to sit, maybe he looks at another bigger school?

Noah. I have no idea, what he will do. Return, leave, USD, another Summit school, or out of conference...but that kid will be playing basketball.
My guess is NOT for SDSU. But I know nothing, and I don't deserve to know anything, and whatever he does, I hope he does well. (I just hope it isn't USD)

I can see Fiedler staying. He's "the guy" in Omaha. I'm sure the new coach's first priority will be to build something around him.

I don't think NDSU loses anyone of consequence, and may look for a JuCo PG. They return some nice pieces. A good PG, and they have a very solid starting 5.

Something I don't think will happen...but to be honest... after the Summit Title, Baylor retweeted a couple of NBA scouts saying how he is an NBA level talent. I don't think it will happen, but could we perhaps lose Baylor to the draft? I don't think a scenario like Daum's last season is out of the realm of possibilty, where he declares for the draft without an agent, and sees where he stands.

This is a speculation thread...so please take this for what it is. Speculation on my part.

[Southeast]

Good Speculation in a speculation thread.



I don't think NDSU loses anyone of consequence, and may look for a JuCo PG. They return some nice pieces. A good PG, and they have a very solid starting 5.

I wouldn't call losing two first team all conference players (not to mention one of the league's best "glue" guys) no one of consequence!

Krueser's shooting was a matchup problem for every team in the Summit. Griesel was a Swiss Army knife that could guard anyone and made probably a dozen game winning shots over his long career. Eady was a very good defender and rebounder who averaged over 10pts per game. Those are their top 3 scorers, top 3 rebounders, and top 3 minutes-per-game guys.

[bigticket1]

Good Speculation in a speculation thread.

Bruns is probably going to USD. (Doesn't he have to sit a year? I know they didn't after that Covid year, extra year of eligibility was granted)
I can see him sit a year, and wait for his brother and they will both go to USD.

Max will return to ORU if he has to sit a year. I don't think he can go pro this year. His shooting dropped off some, and ORU wasn't quite as good. NBA scouts will notice the "luck" NDSU had guarding him with size. Everyone in the NBA has big guards. If he doesn't have to sit, maybe he looks at another bigger school?

Noah. I have no idea, what he will do. Return, leave, USD, another Summit school, or out of conference...but that kid will be playing basketball.
My guess is NOT for SDSU. But I know nothing, and I don't deserve to know anything, and whatever he does, I hope he does well. (I just hope it isn't USD)

I can see Fiedler staying. He's "the guy" in Omaha. I'm sure the new coach's first priority will be to build something around him.

I don't think NDSU loses anyone of consequence, and may look for a JuCo PG. They return some nice pieces. A good PG, and they have a very solid starting 5.

Something I don't think will happen...but to be honest... after the Summit Title, Baylor retweeted a couple of NBA scouts saying how he is an NBA level talent. I don't think it will happen, but could we perhaps lose Baylor to the draft? I don't think a scenario like Daum's last season is out of the realm of possibilty, where he declares for the draft without an agent, and sees where he stands.

This is a speculation thread...so please take this for what it is. Speculation on my part.

I believe the one time transfer without having to sit is a permanent thing. Also, NDSU loses Kreuser, Griesel and Eady, who all went though Senior Day in Fargo.

[da_coach]

I wouldn't call losing two first team all conference players (not to mention one of the league's best "glue" guys) no one of consequence!

Krueser's shooting was a matchup problem for every team in the Summit. Griesel was a Swiss Army knife that could guard anyone and made probably a dozen game winning shots over his long career. Eady was a very good defender and rebounder who averaged over 10pts per game. Those are their top 3 scorers, top 3 rebounders, and top 3 minutes-per-game guys.

NO, I didn't make myself clear. I apologize. I meant aside from their graduating seniors. They wouldn't have any departures/transfers of consequence. Yes, losing those 2 will hurt them.

[salemjack]

You can transfer without sitting now with the current rules. Abmas could also go overseas, it seemed like that’s the way he was headed but idk. Also, I agree there is a good chance Baylor “enters the draft” but I would be shocked if he actually went and hired and agent and gave up his NCAA eligibility.

[salemjack]

St. Thomas guard Anders Nelson has entered the portal. Likely moving to D2 to take on a bigger role and have a postseason to play for. Looks like people are saying Riley Miller has another year of eligibility if he wants it? That would be a big addition to St. Thomas that I was not expecting but I could also see him transferring and he could be a 6th man/bench scorer on a pretty good team. Something to keep an eye on.

[salemjack]

Should have waited another day to post! Todd Lee FIRED at USD. This changes everything. Who knows who will stay there and if Bruns would even consider it now. What a shocker.


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