2013-2014 Season

[jackmd]

Re: 2013-2014 Season

Damn right.The drop off at pg this year is all Nagys fault!

I know this is said in jest but it is interesting to wonder. It takes a certain something to convince kids to come and develop into the kind of players you need to compete at the higher levels of even the mid major ranks. Not easy to balance the playing time and practice time to keep younger players in the program so they can fill big voids like the one left by the graduation of Nate the Great.

I'm not about to suggest Bittle and Carlson should be condemned before the season even starts. These are just the worries of a Jackrabbit loyalist that wants more reassurance from the coaching staff then I'm hearing right now. I am certain Nagy is playing it close to the vest but wonder sometimes if he does that too much. Can't wait for the season to start!!

[jackmd]

Re: 2013-2014 Season

Does anyone really think that after one week of practice that Scott Nagy is going to come out and say that they have someone ready to take Nate's spot , even if he believes that to be true ? There is going to be a lot of pressure on whoever starts at that spot, and a point guard by committee approach would not surprise me until things sort themselves out. To be honest , we haven't seen enough of Jake Bittle or Brayden at the point to have any idea if they can get the job done. The fact that we didn't sign a "true" point guard in last year's class and haven't yet in the upcoming class gives me the feeling that the coaching staff is fairly comfortable with what is already here.

Certainly another way to look at it.

[MontanaRabbit]

Re: 2013-2014 Season

The wild card to this year is what kind of play we get out of the PG position. I think the play of the point guard is going to be directly proportional to the season we have. Great PG play the season will be great. Poor point guard play and it's gonna be a long season.

The talent is there, but it takes someone to drive the boat per se.

[Southeast]

Re: 2013-2014 Season

I'm definitely expecting early season struggles because of the PG issue. It might be February before things are running smoothly. The key will be not making a run in Sioux Falls too tall of a task. Those four days in March are the real "season" at this level.


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[RabbitObsessed]

Re: 2013-2014 Season

I think Bittle will be fine. Call it a gut feeling I suppose. He's already there on D.

Also from the Argus interview, re: Cody Larson:

I just think so many people have preconceived notions based on what they read and then develop an opinion about somebody.

Certainly couldn't apply that to anyone on here over the years . . .

[Nidaros]

Re: 2013-2014 Season

Does anyone really think that after one week of practice that Scott Nagy is going to come out and say that they have someone ready to take Nate's spot , even if he believes that to be true ? There is going to be a lot of pressure on whoever starts at that spot, and a point guard by committee approach would not surprise me until things sort themselves out. To be honest , we haven't seen enough of Jake Bittle or Brayden at the point to have any idea if they can get the job done. The fact that we didn't sign a "true" point guard in last year's class and haven't yet in the upcoming class gives me the feeling that the coaching staff is fairly comfortable with what is already here.

You got me there, I still in a football mode. I have not began to think BB.
I am sure by the Nov 1 game comes, Nagy will have it figured out to some degree, or he will be working on his resume.

[SDSUAlum08]

Re: 2013-2014 Season

Point guard play is everything in college basketball. Hopefully someone steps up.

[Nidaros]

Re: 2013-2014 Season

I think Bittle will be fine. Call it a gut feeling I suppose. He's already there on D.

Also from the Argus interview, re: Cody Larson:



Certainly couldn't apply that to anyone on here over the years . . .

Agree about Bittle, RE Cody Larson, I quote a line from the movie Taxi, Robert DeNiro, "Are you talking to me?"

[Kemo]

Re: 2013-2014 Season

Point guard is an unknown at this point, but at the same time the position isn't going to be asked to carry the team like it was with Nate. Coach Nagy is a good coach who knows he can't expect Bittle, Carlson, or Broman to be Nate and will adapt the offense according to their abilities. There are plenty of ways to run an offense successfully without being point guard centric.

What gets me most excited about this season is our potential on the defensive end. We have the experience, length, and depth to be exceptional on that end of the court.

I know fans are excited about the addition of Cody Larson, and I am too, but not because I think he's going to score 20 points a game, but rather his ability to guard other teams' best post players. Think of how much more sound our defense could be if we didn't have to double down on players like Marshall Bjorklund. Cody has the physical gifts to guard 1v1 against the top posts in the league, and if he proves he has the anticipation skills and the mental toughness, I think we won't see much doubling of the post this season.

[filbert]

Re: 2013-2014 Season

Dykstra at the point.

(grins, ducks, runs)

[HoboJack]

Re: 2013-2014 Season

Dykstra at the point.

(grins, ducks, runs)

I believe Heemstra ran the point on their HS team.

I'm assuming it was mostly so that other teams wouldn't run full-court press with their 5'9" guards to keep them from getting into their half-court, but still - he does have experience.

[HoboJack]

Re: 2013-2014 Season

I believe this roster is going to allow Nagy to go back to more of the high-low post motion offense he used at the end of the D2 era vs. the 4 out 1 in offense. To run this offense at the D1 level you need to have bigs that are versatile - play with their backs to the basket and able to face up because they could switch off which offensive spot (1 on the blocks, 1 at the free throw line) they are playing almost every time down the floor. They need to be able to knock down shots from the 12-18', and be effective passers. Sound familiar?

The Hi-Low offense puts more bodies at the top of the lane and reduces dribble-drive-dish opportunities for true point guards. On the other-hand the extra screeners provides for lots of back-door cuts and open perimeter shots, and puts the offense in better rebounding position. It doesn't require an 'elite' point guard to run this offense.

My only concern is how we will handle pressure from more athletic teams. I don't think we would do that with a single point guard anyway - even Nate typically gave the ball up against the press. Having 6'4" to 6'6" ball handlers should help if they don't panic.

[RabbitObsessed]

Re: 2013-2014 Season

12-18 feet shots are about the most inefficient shots we could take. We want stuff in the paint and stuff from 3. The midrange game is not how to score efficiently. The reason our offense has been so good the last couple years is because for the most part our shots came from 3 or right by the hoop. Nate obviously had a lot to do with that, but Nagy has to find away to replicate our shots coming from those same areas if we want to score at close to the same high points per possession levels that we did the last 3 years.

[HoboJack]

Re: 2013-2014 Season

12-18 feet shots are about the most inefficient shots we could take. We want stuff in the paint and stuff from 3. The midrange game is not how to score efficiently. The reason our offense has been so good the last couple years is because for the most part our shots came from 3 or right by the hoop. Nate obviously had a lot to do with that, but Nagy has to find away to replicate our shots coming from those same areas if we want to score at close to the same high points per possession levels that we did the last 3 years.

The big has to be able to hit the shot at the top of the lane - essentially a free throw - in order to get the defense to commit a body to guarding him - and opening up passing lanes for other players. The Hi-Low uses a pass to the top of the lane to a big, the same way as the 4 out - 1 in uses the penetrating guard. The goal of both is to get defenses to collapse which opens things up to the outside. You take what the defense gives you - if its a 15 footer you take it. This offense created a lot of three point and back-door cut opportunities in the D2 days.

We were running this offense for much of Nate's freshman year, and were able to generate a bunch of 3's for Sargent & Garrett Callahan. Problem was that AC couldn't hit the shot from the free-throw line to draw a defender & Kai wasn't a very effective Back-to-the basket post player, and we had no depth in the post. I think we have the pieces to run this offense again, and make it be effective.

[RabbitObsessed]

Re: 2013-2014 Season

I very much understand how the offense works. The occasional shot from midrange is fine, but it doesn't change the fact that the midrange jumper is the worst shot on a basketball court to take.

This shot chart is from the NBA, but it holds true for college as well. Midrange is where efficiency goes to die.










Here's (http://www.basketballprospectus.com/...?articleid=191) an older article from Ken Pomroy, the college basketball stats guru. The article takes data from college basketball in case anyone doesn't think that the NBA data translates to college. He has a great chart that shows the relationship between shot distance and field goal percentage.

Key quotes:

Fewer than half as many shots are taken between 10 and 15 feet as are taken between 20 and 25 feet. What's striking is that accuracy in the mid-range is less than it is for the closest three-point shots.

Teams taking mid-range shots--especially early in the shot clock--are just making life easy for the defense more often than not. Even someone like Michael Beasley, who by my figures is an above average mid-range shooter, is someone who should be given a 15-footer whenever he wants. If you're the opposition, that's the smart thing to do considering the other spots on the court where he can be more potent offensively.

Again, an occasional midrange shot is fine and often times necessary. But to claim that we need to be utilizing that shot for spacing in our offense is kind of ridiculous. Threes, and stuff in the paint. It's why we were one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country. Of course, one of the reasons we got all of those types of shots was Nate. We'll see if we can replicate it this year.