Michigan GDT

[MontanaRabbit]

Re: Michigan GDT

Great write up.

Is anybody else feeling a sense of what the heck do I do with myself now that bball season is over?

Not sure it's really hit me that the Nate Wolters era is over!


I will reinterate what I said earlier in this thread. When we make the NCAA tournament again, I highly recommend making the trip. The experience was incredible.

[leeshajo]

Re: Michigan GDT

Maybe it has already been posted, but here is the big Grantland.com piece we have been waiting for about SDSU's trip to the NCAA's.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...-loss-michigan

Great write up.

Is anybody else feeling a sense of what the heck do I do with myself now that bball season is over?

[goon]

Re: Michigan GDT

That dude is just a flat out excellent story teller. Love it. Glad Nate got some props for locking up Burke too.

someone should send this link to mitch albom.

[KUlawJack]

Re: Michigan GDT

Maybe it has already been posted, but here is the big Grantland.com piece we have been waiting for about SDSU's trip to the NCAA's.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...-loss-michigan

That dude is just a flat out excellent story teller. Love it. Glad Nate got some props for locking up Burke too.

[Southeast]

Re: Michigan GDT

Maybe it has already been posted, but here is the big Grantland.com piece we have been waiting for about SDSU's trip to the NCAA's.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...-loss-michigan

[Jacks-02]

Re: Michigan GDT

So are you predicting Nate to the celts in the 1st round? That would be awesome. Why are we so worried about his 3 point shooting anyway? He brings a lot more to the game than that. Just like most nba pt guards. Look at some numbers.

These are career 3 pt percentages:

Brandon Jennings 35.4%
Jason Kidd 34.9%
Jeremy Lin 32.8%
Tony Parker 31.4%
Chris Paul 35.8%
Rajon Rondo 24.1%
Derrick Rose 31%
Ricky Rubio 28.7%
Russell Westbrook 30%

I think Nate can hold his own shooting-wise against any of these guys

Interesting thought. Rondo is likely to be gone after this year isn't he?

[RabbitObsessed]

Re: Michigan GDT

I rarely make predictions, but after the way he blanketed Sports Illustrated's national player of the year on Thursday, I'll be shocked if someone doesn't take him in the first round.



It's hard to draw useful conclusions from three-point percentages with no reference to shot volume. Most of these guys could probably raise their percentages into the forties just by being more selective, but I'd say a player who shoots forty percent on threes over the course of a season is being _too_ selective. Factoring in the extra offensive rebounding opportunities, a good target range is typically the low thirties. The real question is how fatigued or closely guarded a player can be and still continue shooting in that range.

In other words, a weak three-point shooter should wait until he's open enough to shoot around 32 percent, and a great three-point shooter should keep shooting until defenses find a way to hold him around 32 percent. Then it's a matter of how many threes a player is actually making. (This is an oversimplified generalization, but hopefully it makes sense.)

Ooooh. Someone on the board that understands the math behind taking a high volume of 3s.

[Kurt_Evans]

So are you predicting Nate to the celts in the 1st round?

No. After taking a little more time to think about it, I'd say he may fall into the early second round (35th-40th overall).

These are career 3 pt percentages:

Brandon Jennings 35.4%
Jason Kidd 34.9%
Jeremy Lin 32.8%
Tony Parker 31.4%
Chris Paul 35.8%
Rajon Rondo 24.1%
Derrick Rose 31%
Ricky Rubio 28.7%
Russell Westbrook 30%

It's hard to draw useful conclusions from three-point percentages with no reference to shot volume. Most of these guys could probably raise their percentages into the forties just by being more selective, but I'd say a player who shoots forty percent on threes over the course of a season is being _too_ selective. Factoring in the extra offensive rebounding opportunities, a good target range is typically the low thirties. The real question is how fatigued or closely guarded a player can be and still continue shooting in that range.

In other words, a weak three-point shooter should wait until he's open enough to shoot around 32 percent, and a great three-point shooter should keep shooting until defenses find a way to hold him around 32 percent. Then it's a matter of how many threes a player is actually making. (This is an oversimplified generalization, but hopefully it makes sense.)

[Kemo]

Re: Michigan GDT

So are you predicting Nate to the celts in the 1st round? That would be awesome. Why are we so worried about his 3 point shooting anyway? He brings a lot more to the game than that. Just like most nba pt guards. Look at some numbers.

These are career 3 pt percentages:

Brandon Jennings 35.4%
Jason Kidd 34.9%
Jeremy Lin 32.8%
Tony Parker 31.4%
Chris Paul 35.8%
Rajon Rondo 24.1%
Derrick Rose 31%
Ricky Rubio 28.7%
Russell Westbrook 30%

I think Nate can hold his own shooting-wise against any of these guys

This is what I always thought as well. A NBA point guard's job generally isn't to be a shooter, but rather to get others good looks. 3pt shooting only becomes a factor if the PG is a liability from behind the arch (anything above 30% and you aren't a liability).

[Rabbitball]

Re: Michigan GDT

So are you predicting Nate to the celts in the 1st round? That would be awesome. Why are we so worried about his 3 point shooting anyway? He brings a lot more to the game than that. Just like most nba pt guards. Look at some numbers.

These are career 3 pt percentages:

Brandon Jennings 35.4%
Jason Kidd 34.9%
Jeremy Lin 32.8%
Tony Parker 31.4%
Chris Paul 35.8%
Rajon Rondo 24.1%
Derrick Rose 31%
Ricky Rubio 28.7%
Russell Westbrook 30%

I think Nate can hold his own shooting-wise against any of these guys

[Kurt_Evans]

I would love to see Nate drafted but I doubt he will. I think he will spend time in the D league until he can consistantly prove he can shoot. Nba range 3s. He has a lot of skills teams would love I think but I see teams taking chances on others before nate.

NBA-range threes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cdcvb81X0UU

It only takes 1 team to fall in love with a guy for a guy to jump 20 picks.

I think Danny Ainge has been in love with Nate since last season:
https://twitter.com/TerryVandrovec/s...32662356418560

And check this out from Friday:
http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap...CAA-Tournament

Re: Michigan GDT

Predicting where he will get drafted is like predicting where I'll be in 2 years. (I don't have a clue, so I doubt anyone else does).

The positives for him is he can handle the ball, he can create shots, he can defend, he is athletic enough and is a good enough shooter.

The big problem is that he has had an offense where he has had complete control over, and that won't happen in the NBA so where he will move is during NBA workouts and interviews, whether or not a club believes he can run their system. It only takes 1 team to fall in love with a guy for a guy to jump 20 picks.

good info I hadn't thought of that stuff, he's a smooth character too so that could only help

[joeboo22]

Re: Michigan GDT

Predicting where he will get drafted is like predicting where I'll be in 2 years. (I don't have a clue, so I doubt anyone else does).

The positives for him is he can handle the ball, he can create shots, he can defend, he is athletic enough and is a good enough shooter.

The big problem is that he has had an offense where he has had complete control over, and that won't happen in the NBA so where he will move is during NBA workouts and interviews, whether or not a club believes he can run their system. It only takes 1 team to fall in love with a guy for a guy to jump 20 picks.

Re: Michigan GDT

I would love to see Nate drafted but I doubt he will. I think he will spend time in the D league until he can consistantly prove he can shoot. Nba range 3s. He has a lot of skills teams would love I think but I see teams taking chances on others before nate.

It would be cool wouldn't it, but either way my goal is to get a wolters jersey wherever he ends up

[goon]

Re: Michigan GDT

I'll say that a team picks him up in the mid-late second round, so around the 50th pick. Then goes on to make the roster wherever it is, just too many positives about him to not take a chance towards the end of the 2nd round somebody will bite

I would love to see Nate drafted but I doubt he will. I think he will spend time in the D league until he can consistantly prove he can shoot. Nba range 3s. He has a lot of skills teams would love I think but I see teams taking chances on others before nate.