Seed Tracker 2k19

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

So, (assuming we win on Saturday) I'm torn between which seed I'd rather us have between being on the 4/5 line and the 6/7 line.

I can see pros and cons to both.

Right now, if chalk holds, NDSU and JMU will be 1 and 2. But it gets a little bit cloudier after that. 3 and 4 could be either Sacramento State or Montana. Arguments can be made for both.

If its
NDSU
JMU
Sac
Montana

I think I'd rather be the 6 seed. A quarterfinal game at Sacramento would be a relatively easy environment and would set us up with one hard venue to play in the way to Frisco. That's not saying anything about the quality of teams on that path though. Still tough.

If its
NDSU
JMU
Montana
Sac...

... I think we want the 5 seed. Same reason, Sac isnt a tough stadium to play in, and again it gives only one tough venue to play in. But if Montana is the 4, I'd say we want to end up on the 6 line to, again, only have one tough venue (JMU) to play in.

I guess my question is, do you think our chance of making it to Frisco is better as the 5 traveling through Fargo, a 4 traveling through Fargo, or a 6/7 traveling through Missoula and Harrisonburg?

The obvious answer would seem to be as a 4, having to win one road game. But on the flip side, playing the best team in one of the three best venues is going to be very tough to secure a win. I dont view JMU as a cut above the rest because, quite frankly, the CAA blows this year. I see JMU/SDSU/Montana/Sac/Weber as all on equal footing. All have flaws, all have the potential to beat each other. Additionally, no matter who our QB would have been, they will be playing their first game in the fargo dome if we get sent through there. With TC, we could use the familiarity of the dome as a potential asset compared to playing somewhere else, but I dont know if that holds up this year with Heide.

Of course, Missoula and Harrisonburh are the other two toughest places to play in the FCS. Neither will be fun. And winning consecutive road games against both might be asking too much. But I still think both Montana and JMU are more beatable than NDSU this year.

Therefore, I think our best possible seed positioning for a run to Frisco is as follows if we can't hist a quarterfinal game:

NDSU
JMU
Sacramento
Montana
ISUr
SDSU

Gives us a winnable game vs Sac and one tough road game in the semis against what I believe to be a somewhat overrated JMU due to the CAA's lack of quality teams. Plus, I really want revenge in H-Burg.

How does everyone feel about going through Fargo vs the other spots? (Also, I understand the logistic advantage of knocking out NDSU in the semis for plane tickets, game tickets, hotels in frisco, etc. But I'm not including that advantage here. I want to know what people think is the easier road to the championship.)

[AZjack]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

So, (assuming we win on Saturday) I'm torn between which seed I'd rather us have between being on the 4/5 line and the 6/7 line.

I can see pros and cons to both.

Right now, if chalk holds, NDSU and JMU will be 1 and 2. But it gets a little bit cloudier after that. 3 and 4 could be either Sacramento State or Montana. Arguments can be made for both.

If its
NDSU
JMU
Sac
Montana

I think I'd rather be the 6 seed. A quarterfinal game at Sacramento would be a relatively easy environment and would set us up with one hard venue to play in the way to Frisco. That's not saying anything about the quality of teams on that path though. Still tough.

If its
NDSU
JMU
Montana
Sac...

... I think we want the 5 seed. Same reason, Sac isnt a tough stadium to play in, and again it gives only one tough venue to play in. But if Montana is the 4, I'd say we want to end up on the 6 line to, again, only have one tough venue (JMU) to play in.

I guess my question is, do you think our chance of making it to Frisco is better as the 5 traveling through Fargo, a 4 traveling through Fargo, or a 6/7 traveling through Missoula and Harrisonburg?

The obvious answer would seem to be as a 4, having to win one road game. But on the flip side, playing the best team in one of the three best venues is going to be very tough to secure a win. I dont view JMU as a cut above the rest because, quite frankly, the CAA blows this year. I see JMU/SDSU/Montana/Sac/Weber as all on equal footing. All have flaws, all have the potential to beat each other. Additionally, no matter who our QB would have been, they will be playing their first game in the fargo dome if we get sent through there. With TC, we could use the familiarity of the dome as a potential asset compared to playing somewhere else, but I dont know if that holds up this year with Heide.

Of course, Missoula and Harrisonburh are the other two toughest places to play in the FCS. Neither will be fun. And winning consecutive road games against both might be asking too much. But I still think both Montana and JMU are more beatable than NDSU this year.

Therefore, I think our best possible seed positioning for a run to Frisco is as follows if we can't hist a quarterfinal game:

NDSU
JMU
Sacramento
Montana
ISUr
SDSU

Gives us a winnable game vs Sac and one tough road game in the semis against what I believe to be a somewhat overrated JMU due to the CAA's lack of quality teams. Plus, I really want revenge in H-Burg.

How does everyone feel about going through Fargo vs the other spots? (Also, I understand the logistic advantage of knocking out NDSU in the semis for plane tickets, game tickets, hotels in frisco, etc. But I'm not including that advantage here. I want to know what people think is the easier road to the championship.)

I'm wanting the 6 as Sac State or MT could get beat in the 2nd round. I'm not convinced the Big Sky is great again this year. UNI gave Weber all they could handle at their place. Missoula is a little scary, but not convinced they are world beaters and would not be surprised if MSU beats them in Bozeman.

I'd rather avoid Fargo. Even if we get curb stomped by NDSU in Frisco, it's still better being in the title game for recruiting and future seed purposes.

[discoDancinRabbit]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

Here’s how I see it. We beat USD we’re going to host the second round. We take care of business there and we are into the quarters. At this point it’s a crap shoot but one thing is for certain and that is the more upsets that occur the more likely we are to host again deeper into the bracket despite not having a great seed number whatever it turns out to be. Essentially we are hoping for a cluster**** where upsets are happening left and right while we quietly go about our business and wake up in Frisco for a chance at a national championship.

[BTownJack]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

I'm wanting the 6 as Sac State or MT could get beat in the 2nd round. I'm not convinced the Big Sky is great again this year. UNI gave Weber all they could handle at their place. Missoula is a little scary, but not convinced they are world beaters and would not be surprised if MSU beats them in Bozeman.

I'd rather avoid Fargo. Even if we get curb stomped by NDSU in Frisco, it's still better being in the title game for recruiting and future seed purposes.

I don't want NDSU in Fargo simple because we won't get a ticket in Frisco if that happens. We aren't scared by that atmosphere up there - we are used to it. And, and most importantly, they have experience of playing in Frisco. That is just as much a home venue for them than anyone else in the FCS. So if we have to play them, I'd rather do it up there.

Then there is the possibility that someone else could beat NDSU in the semis.

[Justwin]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

I want whatever seed allows us to play somebody else other than a MVFC team. I want to see somebody new just for a change of pace.

[CappinHard]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

Thumper and I discussed this stuff at length on the podcast, but I'll sum it up here. First I'll pose the question... Is our goal to make it to the championship or win the championship? If it's to make it there, sure, avoiding Fargo might be the best option. Assuming that our goal is to win the championship, chances are we're going to have to beat NDSU at some point.

The 4 seed is clearly our best option. It would guarantee 2 home games instead of 1. I don't care how you feel about going to Fargo, that benefit is impossible to pass up.


If the 4 seed isn't available, imo the 5 seed is the way to go for the following reasons:
1. We are familiar with Fargo and never been to Frisco
2. NDSU is very familiar with Frisco and it would just be another home game for them
3. I would argue that we have a better chance of beating NDSU in Fargo than in Frisco, largely due to reasons 1 and 2

If the 5 seed isn't available, the 6 seed is probably the way to go, just because it feels more likely that whoever ends up as the 3 seed could end up getting beat, and we could potentially host 2 games before going to JMU.

[AZjack]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

Thumper and I discussed this stuff at length on the podcast, but I'll sum it up here. First I'll pose the question... Is our goal to make it to the championship or win the championship? If it's to make it there, sure, avoiding Fargo might be the best option. Assuming that our goal is to win the championship, chances are we're going to have to beat NDSU at some point.

The 4 seed is clearly our best option. It would guarantee 2 home games instead of 1. I don't care how you feel about going to Fargo, that benefit is impossible to pass up.


If the 4 seed isn't available, imo the 5 seed is the way to go for the following reasons:
1. We are familiar with Fargo and never been to Frisco
2. NDSU is very familiar with Frisco and it would just be another home game for them
3. I would argue that we have a better chance of beating NDSU in Fargo than in Frisco, largely due to reasons 1 and 2

If the 5 seed isn't available, the 6 seed is probably the way to go, just because it feels more likely that whoever ends up as the 3 seed could end up getting beat, and we could potentially host 2 games before going to JMU.

The idea that NDSU is somehow more easily beat in Fargo is based on what? We've been there in the playoffs how many times? Got the crap kicked out of us every time but once. I'll take my chance with them in Frisco, they are a young team too.

The two home games as a 4 are the true benefit. I don't see a way unless NDSU has a lot of injuries that we are within 2 scores in the semis in Fargo.

[Slowhand]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

Cappin is correct. SDSU has a better chance of winning in Fargo than Frisco.
Your team is comfortable with the familiarity of the Fargo Dome.
Everything in Frisco would be new to them.

[CappinHard]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

The idea that NDSU is somehow more easily beat in Fargo is based on what? We've been there in the playoffs how many times? Got the crap kicked out of us every time but once. I'll take my chance with them in Frisco, they are a young team too.

The two home games as a 4 are the true benefit. I don't see a way unless NDSU has a lot of injuries that we are within 2 scores in the semis in Fargo.

You're right, we've been there in the playoffs multiple times, plus a bunch in the regular season. That's exactly why we have a better shot at beating them there, there's familiarity. It would be difficult either way obviously, but trying to beat them our first time to Frisco and their 8th is a much taller task imo. There's a reason why most NDSU fans don't want to see SDSU sent to Fargo, and that's because we've proven we can beat them there and they know they would have the upper hand in Frisco.

The only way you could convince me that playing NDSU in Frisco is a better idea is if Strong needs that much time to be fully healthy.

[AZjack]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

Cappin is correct. SDSU has a better chance of winning in Fargo than Frisco.
Your team is comfortable with the familiarity of the Fargo Dome.
Everything in Frisco would be new to them.

I think it's laughable that somehow being comfortable in Fargo will make it easier to win. NDSU is even more comfortable at home. Honestly, I think people are delusional that a win is easier in Fargo. The team has a constant track record of not performing well in Fargo in the playoffs.

If TC and Co couldn't get it done in 2016 or 2018, it's not happening this year.

New things build excitement and the chance to be on the big stage in Frisco. Going to Fargo feels like the same old thing every year and the team is defeated before they step on the field.

[AZjack]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

You're right, we've been there in the playoffs multiple times, plus a bunch in the regular season. That's exactly why we have a better shot at beating them there, there's familiarity. It would be difficult either way obviously, but trying to beat them our first time to Frisco and their 8th is a much taller task imo. There's a reason why most NDSU fans don't want to see SDSU sent to Fargo, and that's because we've proven we can beat them there and they know they would have the upper hand in Frisco.

The only way you could convince me that playing NDSU in Frisco is a better idea is if Strong needs that much time to be fully healthy.

They also have shown convincingly that they have the upper hand by a mile in Fargo in the playoffs. Being in the championship is better than getting blown out by NDSU in Fargo for the sake of recruiting and even FCS recognition.

The familiarity in Fargo is of getting stomped in the playoffs, the coaching staff feels it and so do the players. It's not familiarity that they feel in the FargoDome, it's dread knowing the outcome is going to be the same as before.

A new dawn in Frisco has a chance of being special, the players only feel excitement for new things and not dread of past performances.

[CappinHard]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

They also have shown convincingly that they have the upper hand by a mile in Fargo in the playoffs. Being in the championship is better than getting blown out by NDSU in Fargo for the sake of recruiting and even FCS recognition.

The familiarity in Fargo is of getting stomped in the playoffs, the coaching staff feels it and so do the players. It's not familiarity that they feel in the FargoDome, it's dread knowing the outcome is going to be the same as before.

A new dawn in Frisco has a chance of being special, the players only feel excitement for new things and not dread of past performances.

We'll have to agree to disagree.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

While I wont get into the level of challenge on beating NDSU in Frisco vs Fargo, I do think the program would benefit a lot more by making the title game than getting knocked out in the semis again. I understand there may be an argument that our chances of winning a natty may go down with having to beat them down there, but the next step as a program is to play for a title. And based on our recruiting and trajectory, experience playing in a title game will probably lead to winning a title game sooner than later. Not very many teams get the chance to play for a title, and it would be a massive deal just to make the game. For our fans, our coaches, players, seniors, etc. I think there is a lot more to gain by playing for a title than getting beat in the semis.

[CappinHard]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

While I wont get into the level of challenge on beating NDSU in Frisco vs Fargo, I do think the program would benefit a lot more by making the title game than getting knocked out in the semis again. I understand there may be an argument that our chances of winning a natty may go down with having to beat them down there, but the next step as a program is to play for a title. And based on our recruiting and trajectory, experience playing in a title game will probably lead to winning a title game sooner than later. Not very many teams get the chance to play for a title, and it would be a massive deal just to make the game. For our fans, our coaches, players, seniors, etc. I think there is a lot more to gain by playing for a title than getting beat in the semis.

There's definitely merit to your argument. I won't deny that. Might end up being a horse a piece when you factor in all the benefits of each scenario. Let's just take care of business against USD, then...

[Sodakbull]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

FWIW, I think going back and getting some retribution for getting blown out at JMU would also go a long ways in gaining credibility for the program too. I think it is VERY important for wherever you play, is to compete at a high level.