Seed Tracker 2k19

[Mr_Tibbs]

Thought I'd start this to go ahead and start outlining some seed possibilities. Were getting into the point in the year where stuff is becoming a little clearer, so it's fun to start looking at possibilities.

Virtual Locks for a seed:

These are teams that, barring an epic collapse,will snag a seed.

NDSU
JMU
Sac/Weber winner
Kennesaw (unless they drop a game)

Even though we all know KSU is way overrated, they were overrated last year too and still got a 4 seed and snubbed us out of hosting a quarterfinal game. If they finish 11-1 this year, you can go ahead and pencil them in at the 4.



Potential seeds, but with tough games remaining:

SDSU
Montana
Weber/Sac loser
ISUr/UNI winner
Nova
UCA



Outside looking in and need some serious help:

Montana State
Furman


If SDSU wins out, here's how I think it'll go:

1) NDSU
2) JMU
3) Weber/Sac winner
4) KSU
5) SDSU
6) Weber/Sac loser
7) Nova
8) UCA

I could see SDSU jumping to the 3 with two too 15 wins over ISUr and UNI, but I'm not confident. Probably our best bet is to have ISUr beat UNI, lose to us, and win out to remain near the top 10. Weber still has a tough game at UM after they go through Sac as well, so our best hope is for Weber to beat Sac, lose to UM, and then become huge bobcat fans the following week. Sac State has an easier road ahead, so a hornet victory over Weber may pretty well lock up a top 4 finish for them.

Kennesaw also has two "tough" games ahead with Cambell and Monmouth this weekend, so there's a chance they slip up. I don't think Furman or MSU have a shot, but UCA will probably take that 8 seed if the win out. Montana might have a shot at it too, even if they drop one more.

Conversely, I think we'd be on the outside looking in at a seed if we drop another game. There are too many 10-2 teams out there for us to feel confident at a top 8 seed if we finish 9-3.

[CappinHard]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

Tbh... I would be fine with NDSU at 1 and us at 4 or 5.

1. If we want a natty, we'll have to beat them at some point (no one else is going to this year). It's not going to be any easier in Frisco that it would be in Fargo.

2. If we beat NDSU before Frisco, tickets for the natty will be really cheap, hotels will be easy to get. If we play NDSU in Frisco, good luck even getting a ticket.

3. Especially if Kennesaw is the other 4/5 seed, I really like that. They are a paper tiger.

[WestSideRabbit]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

3. Especially if Kennesaw is the other 4/5 seed, I really like that. They are a paper tiger.

They're not even good on paper. They are living off of their previous teams accomplishments.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

Tbh... I would be fine with NDSU at 1 and us at 4 or 5.

1. If we want a natty, we'll have to beat them at some point (no one else is going to this year). It's not going to be any easier in Frisco that it would be in Fargo.

2. If we beat NDSU before Frisco, tickets for the natty will be really cheap, hotels will be easy to get. If we play NDSU in Frisco, good luck even getting a ticket.

3. Especially if Kennesaw is the other 4/5 seed, I really like that. They are a paper tiger.

Agreed. I know when we get sent to the same side of the bracket as then that I can just wait for tickets/rooms of we beat them.

But I will say that getting sent to JMU for a revenge game would be hard to pass up. Or, someday, welcoming them to Brookings in late December and seeing how those boys hold up in 10 below.

One more quick, weird fact: Every odd year we've made the playoffs this decade, we haven't played NDSU. In 2015, we were set to go to Fargo if we beat UM, which didn't happen. But in 13 and 17, we were opposite sides of the bracket. I could see the trend continuing this year.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

Also, while KSU is definitely a paper tiger, having a road home game in the quarters is still huge, and avoiding a long road trip to Atalanta is also worth a lot for the following semi-final game. While I think we can easily beat KSU in Atlanta again, I think it's better to have a home game and avoid that long trip.

[CappinHard]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

Agreed. I know when we get sent to the same side of the bracket as then that I can just wait for tickets/rooms of we beat them.

But I will say that getting sent to JMU for a revenge game would be hard to pass up. Or, someday, welcoming them to Brookings in late December and seeing how those boys hold up in 10 below.

One more quick, weird fact: Every odd year we've made the playoffs this decade, we haven't played NDSU. In 2015, we were set to go to Fargo if we beat UM, which didn't happen. But in 13 and 17, we were opposite sides of the bracket. I could see the trend continuing this year.

Agreed on the JMU revenge game, and agreed on it potentially not happening this year since it happened last year. That's as long as we take care of business and get a seed. If we don't get a seed, we should and probably will get sent to Fargo.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

Sounds like the initial power seed poll will be released next week at halftime of the Miami (OH) vs Ohio game. I wouldn't read too much into that one though. It's a pretty bad take and rarely reflects the final poll on 11/24.

I was thinking about this earlier, but there is still a chance the Jack's could get a top 3 seed if they win out. If the Weber/Sac winner drops another game and if Kennesaw isn't rewarded for being 11-1 against the 100th toughest schedule in FCS, we might be able to regain our previous ground. In that scenario, you'd think JMU and NDSU will be locks for the top 2. Then you'd have us at 10-2 with an FBS and NDSU loss. And then let's say Weber State at 9-3 (9-1 vs FCS) with a loss to two FBS schools and Montana. Then Sac State at 9-3 (8-1 vs FCS) with a loss to Weber, 2 FBS, and a win over an NAIA team. Then you'd have KSU at 11-1 (11-0 vs FCS), with a loss to Kent State. And finally, you might conceivably have Montana at 10-2 (10-1 vs FCS) and Nova at 10-2 (10-2 vs FCS).

Who gets the 3 and 4 seed?

Potential playoff team wins among those teams:

SDSU: ISUr, UNI, maybe SIU/YSU (whoever's finishes higher)

Weber: UNI, Sac State

Sac state: Montana, Montana State

Montana: Weber, Montana State

Nova: Towson, Delaware

KSU: Maybe Monmouth. Maybe...

[Prairiehaas]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

KSU getting spanked by Monmouth. Monmouth up 45-14 with 5 min left in the 4th.

[rabidrabbit]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

Nova lost at UNH today.

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[rabidrabbit]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

UNI may end up a seed. Almost a guarantee if beat Jack's. UNI has only lost to NDSU in MVFC play so far.

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[Nidaros]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

KSU getting spanked by Monmouth. Monmouth up 45-14 with 5 min left in the 4th.

We are talking Kennasaw State the one who edge in the ratings ahead of SDSU. I would think this game takes them down a notch or two.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

Some good things happened yesterday for the Jacks seeding.

First, Kennesaw lost. The chances of the owls stealing a top 4 seed are non-existent, and they are highly improbable for a top 8 seed.

Second, Weber State won over Sac State. While the winner of this game was going to be ranked ahead of the Jack's on Monday no matter what, I think Weber winning is better for SDSU. The Wildcats still have a decent chance to trip up against UND and a huge game against Montana. Sac State likely would have won out after beating Weber if they won yesterday.

If the Jack's win out and Weber wins out, I don't see any way SDSU gets the 3 seed ahead of the Wildcats. Undefeated FCS with three top ten wins (UNI, Sac, Montana) vs 10-1 vs FCS with top 10 win against UNI and top 15 win against ISUR.

The Jack's need Weber to lose to get a top 3 seed. But the good news is that if the boys win out, I do think a top 4 seed is pretty much guaranteed at this point. Gotta take care of business.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

Another point worth considering: Is Weber worthy of a top 2 seed if they win out?

Honestly, they will have the second best resume of the potential top 4 with 3 top 10 wins and no FCS losses. Jim's best win is either SBU or Nova, who are both not top 10. SDSU would have 1 top 10 win, and three more wins over potential playoff/top 25 teams.

Who is seeded 2-4 of those three teams, assuming all win out?

[Nidaros]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

Some good things happened yesterday for the Jacks seeding.

First, Kennesaw lost. The chances of the owls stealing a top 4 seed are non-existent, and they are highly improbable for a top 8 seed.

Second, Weber State won over Sac State. While the winner of this game was going to be ranked ahead of the Jack's on Monday no matter what, I think Weber winning is better for SDSU. The Wildcats still have a decent chance to trip up against UND and a huge game against Montana. Sac State likely would have won out after beating Weber if they won yesterday.

If the Jack's win out and Weber wins out, I don't see any way SDSU gets the 3 seed ahead of the Wildcats. Undefeated FCS with three top ten wins (UNI, Sac, Montana) vs 10-1 vs FCS with top 10 win against UNI and top 15 win against ISUR.

The Jack's need Weber to lose to get a top 3 seed. But the good news is that if the boys win out, I do think a top 4 seed is pretty much guaranteed at this point. Gotta take care of business.

I am not a big fan of former faculty member Newt Ginrich so to see seven day wonder Kennesaw State crumble is news worthy. Hopefully we got a shot in the arm. NDSU pretty much had their way with YSU. I watched the first half, and YSU did seem like the team we faced a few weeks back. We got to improve to stay with NDSU.

[YanktonJack7]

Re: Seed Tracker 2k19

Another point worth considering: Is Weber worthy of a top 2 seed if they win out?

Honestly, they will have the second best resume of the potential top 4 with 3 top 10 wins and no FCS losses. Jim's best win is either SBU or Nova, who are both not top 10. SDSU would have 1 top 10 win, and three more wins over potential playoff/top 25 teams.

Who is seeded 2-4 of those three teams, assuming all win out?

In an ideal world of Weber, SDSU, and JMU all win out, it should be

1. NDSU
2. Weber
3. SDSU
4. JMU

I know JMU would be 11-1 vs. 10-2 for SDSU but SDSU has a higher SOS and would have better wins. The chances this happens however is small IMO. And honestly there are only 5-6 schools who are any good this year.