Tweet
I'm on call for my work tonight, so I have to be sober and in the area. I figure I may as well spend some time taking a deep dive into big 12 brackets and predicting how the Jacks might fare.
125 #6 Tanner Jordan, 6 allocations: I think that Jordan is the favorite over Gollhofer, but he could lose this match. If he wins, he runs into Surtin who I think does beat him somewhat soundly. That loss would probably have him wrestling Cabanban who is an underdog coming off of injury. Like the Gollhofer match, Jordan should be favored but not by a lot. If he wins that, he'll have Prata or Griffin to qualify. Both of these matchups are coinflips for Jordan. If he loses to Gollhofer, I think he beats Hensington, and Mauger before losing to Witcraft. I feel comfortable saying that he finishes between 5th and 8th.
Prediction: Jordan over Mauger for 7th, Jordan secures and at-large bid
133 Derrick Cardinal, 6 allocations: Cardinal has Midkiff right off the bat in a match where he is a slight underdog. If he loses, he most likely runs into Koelzer who should also be a favorite. If he gets by him, he'll have a hard match against Brown or Phippen a loss to whom would put him in the 7th place match. If he manages to beat Midkiff, and he could, he'll run into a buzz saw in Biscoglia and has two very winnable matches to qualify. It really does all come down to winning that first match for him and I hope he's been preparing for Midkiff all week long. He will not get an at-large bid. Vages says that he goes 0-2 here, but anyone who knows these wrestlers and this bracket can plainly see a road to sixth place.
Prediction: Brown over Cardinal for 5th, Cardinal auto-qualifies
141 #5 Clay Carlson, 7 allocations: Swederski came into the season with a lot of hype, and he's wrestled some close matches with some good people, but he hasn't beaten anyone, and I don't think he beats Clay. Carlson is also probably a very slight favorite of Young. If he wins both of those, you have to think that he loses to Alirez, and he's most likely have Hart, Happle, or Droegemueller on the backside. I dislike two of those matchups for him. If he wins, he probably has Schwarts or Happle who are tough but winnable matches. If he loses, he probably has Young or Titus, who he could more easily beat for 5th. If he loses to Young in the quarters, he has two pretty manageable matches to qualify. He should probably get an at-large bid if he places at all here. He could end anywhere between 3rd and 7th here.
Prediction: Hart over Carlson for 5th, Carlson auto-qualifies
149 Alek Martin, 7 allocations: I don't like Alek's chances against Realbuto in round one. He should be a light favorite over DelGado on the backside before running into Hillegas. If he gets past Hillegas, which would be a great result for him, I don't think he get past Voinovich or March following that. I think there is a very small chance that Martin places here, he'll probably win a match or two.
Prediction: Martin 1-2, DNQ
157 #4 Cael Swensen, 7 allocations: I think that Swensen is a sizable favorite over his first round opponent and a still significant favorite over Holschlag, but he will almost certainly lose to Franek in the semis. On the backside, he'll likely have Jacques or Wright and, if he wins, he'll have the other for third. If he loses, he'll be the favorite in the 5th place match unless something crazy happens. I feel good about him placing 3-5 and, if something happens, I think he gets an at-large bid if he places at all.
Prediction Jacques over Swensen for 3rd, Swenson auto-qualifies
165 #7 Tanner Cook, 8 allocations: I'm not even going to try. . .
Prediction: Cook over Fernandez for 7th. Cook auto-qualifies
174 #6 Cade DeVos, 6 allocations: The seeding of this bracket is abysmal. DeVos has a 1st round bye followed by a potentially hard match against Wolf of Air Force. I think he wins and secures a qualification. He has Plott in the semis and that match could go either way. If he wins, he has a tough match in the finals against Mocco or Romero. If he loses, the backside is extremely hard to predict given the meat grinder that is the top side of the backets, but I think Romero will be on the other side of the third place match and Wolf or Runyan will be on the other side of the 5th place match. 4th or 5th seem like the most likely outcomes here.
Predication: Romero over DeVos for 3rd. DeVos auto-qualifies
184 #6 Cade King, 4 allocations: King got a rough seed here in a bracket that has too few allocations. He should win in the first pretty easily, followed by a tough match against Coleman. If he loses, he has a manageable match against (probably) Short followed by a coin flip match against Keegan Moore. If he loses, he probably does not qualify though he probably wins his 7th place match. If he wins, he probably has Hawks or Parker to qualify, both of whom he would be somewhat favored against in my mind. If he loses, he probably has one of those same two wrestlers to take 5th and have a very good shot at an at-large bid. It all seems to hinge on beating Keegan Moore. He could land anywhere between 3rd and 7th.
Prediction: Wittlake over King for 3rd. King auto-qualifies
197 #1 Tanner Sloan, 6 allocations: I refuse to entertain the idea that anyone on Sloan's side of the bracket can beat him after seeing what he did to both Surber and Pentz. I think he skate to the finals and has hard match against Elam or Bastida.
Prediction: Sloan over Elam for 1st. Sloan auto-qualifies
285: #4 AJ Nevills, 8 allocations: Nevills starts off with an easy match against Mora before a harder match against Wolfgram in which Nevills is still a decided favorite. With a win, he faces Hendrickson, at which time I will be going to the bathroom so as to avoid watching that again. When the coast is clear, I'll return to watch as Nevills will most likely wrestle Gordan or Heindselman on the backside. He should be a slight favorite to win and see Schuyler or Elam for 3rd. If he loses in the consi-semis, he likely has Wolfgram again for 5th. He should finish in the 4th - 6th range.
Prediction: Elam over Nevills for 3rd. Nevills auto-qualifies.
Overall predictions: 9 qualifiers (125, 133, 141, 157, 165, 174, 184, 197, 285) Jacks finish 3rd in the conference.
I think I may have been uncharacteristically optimistic here I think that nine is their cap, and I think that they could get as few as seven. Of my predictions, I'm most worried about 125, 165 and 184.
125 #6 Tanner Jordan, 6 allocations: I think that Jordan is the favorite over Gollhofer, but he could lose this match. If he wins, he runs into Surtin who I think does beat him somewhat soundly. That loss would probably have him wrestling Cabanban who is an underdog coming off of injury. Like the Gollhofer match, Jordan should be favored but not by a lot. If he wins that, he'll have Prata or Griffin to qualify. Both of these matchups are coinflips for Jordan. If he loses to Gollhofer, I think he beats Hensington, and Mauger before losing to Witcraft. I feel comfortable saying that he finishes between 5th and 8th.
Prediction: Jordan over Mauger for 7th, Jordan secures and at-large bid
133 Derrick Cardinal, 6 allocations: Cardinal has Midkiff right off the bat in a match where he is a slight underdog. If he loses, he most likely runs into Koelzer who should also be a favorite. If he gets by him, he'll have a hard match against Brown or Phippen a loss to whom would put him in the 7th place match. If he manages to beat Midkiff, and he could, he'll run into a buzz saw in Biscoglia and has two very winnable matches to qualify. It really does all come down to winning that first match for him and I hope he's been preparing for Midkiff all week long. He will not get an at-large bid. Vages says that he goes 0-2 here, but anyone who knows these wrestlers and this bracket can plainly see a road to sixth place.
Prediction: Brown over Cardinal for 5th, Cardinal auto-qualifies
141 #5 Clay Carlson, 7 allocations: Swederski came into the season with a lot of hype, and he's wrestled some close matches with some good people, but he hasn't beaten anyone, and I don't think he beats Clay. Carlson is also probably a very slight favorite of Young. If he wins both of those, you have to think that he loses to Alirez, and he's most likely have Hart, Happle, or Droegemueller on the backside. I dislike two of those matchups for him. If he wins, he probably has Schwarts or Happle who are tough but winnable matches. If he loses, he probably has Young or Titus, who he could more easily beat for 5th. If he loses to Young in the quarters, he has two pretty manageable matches to qualify. He should probably get an at-large bid if he places at all here. He could end anywhere between 3rd and 7th here.
Prediction: Hart over Carlson for 5th, Carlson auto-qualifies
149 Alek Martin, 7 allocations: I don't like Alek's chances against Realbuto in round one. He should be a light favorite over DelGado on the backside before running into Hillegas. If he gets past Hillegas, which would be a great result for him, I don't think he get past Voinovich or March following that. I think there is a very small chance that Martin places here, he'll probably win a match or two.
Prediction: Martin 1-2, DNQ
157 #4 Cael Swensen, 7 allocations: I think that Swensen is a sizable favorite over his first round opponent and a still significant favorite over Holschlag, but he will almost certainly lose to Franek in the semis. On the backside, he'll likely have Jacques or Wright and, if he wins, he'll have the other for third. If he loses, he'll be the favorite in the 5th place match unless something crazy happens. I feel good about him placing 3-5 and, if something happens, I think he gets an at-large bid if he places at all.
Prediction Jacques over Swensen for 3rd, Swenson auto-qualifies
165 #7 Tanner Cook, 8 allocations: I'm not even going to try. . .
Prediction: Cook over Fernandez for 7th. Cook auto-qualifies
174 #6 Cade DeVos, 6 allocations: The seeding of this bracket is abysmal. DeVos has a 1st round bye followed by a potentially hard match against Wolf of Air Force. I think he wins and secures a qualification. He has Plott in the semis and that match could go either way. If he wins, he has a tough match in the finals against Mocco or Romero. If he loses, the backside is extremely hard to predict given the meat grinder that is the top side of the backets, but I think Romero will be on the other side of the third place match and Wolf or Runyan will be on the other side of the 5th place match. 4th or 5th seem like the most likely outcomes here.
Predication: Romero over DeVos for 3rd. DeVos auto-qualifies
184 #6 Cade King, 4 allocations: King got a rough seed here in a bracket that has too few allocations. He should win in the first pretty easily, followed by a tough match against Coleman. If he loses, he has a manageable match against (probably) Short followed by a coin flip match against Keegan Moore. If he loses, he probably does not qualify though he probably wins his 7th place match. If he wins, he probably has Hawks or Parker to qualify, both of whom he would be somewhat favored against in my mind. If he loses, he probably has one of those same two wrestlers to take 5th and have a very good shot at an at-large bid. It all seems to hinge on beating Keegan Moore. He could land anywhere between 3rd and 7th.
Prediction: Wittlake over King for 3rd. King auto-qualifies
197 #1 Tanner Sloan, 6 allocations: I refuse to entertain the idea that anyone on Sloan's side of the bracket can beat him after seeing what he did to both Surber and Pentz. I think he skate to the finals and has hard match against Elam or Bastida.
Prediction: Sloan over Elam for 1st. Sloan auto-qualifies
285: #4 AJ Nevills, 8 allocations: Nevills starts off with an easy match against Mora before a harder match against Wolfgram in which Nevills is still a decided favorite. With a win, he faces Hendrickson, at which time I will be going to the bathroom so as to avoid watching that again. When the coast is clear, I'll return to watch as Nevills will most likely wrestle Gordan or Heindselman on the backside. He should be a slight favorite to win and see Schuyler or Elam for 3rd. If he loses in the consi-semis, he likely has Wolfgram again for 5th. He should finish in the 4th - 6th range.
Prediction: Elam over Nevills for 3rd. Nevills auto-qualifies.
Overall predictions: 9 qualifiers (125, 133, 141, 157, 165, 174, 184, 197, 285) Jacks finish 3rd in the conference.
I think I may have been uncharacteristically optimistic here I think that nine is their cap, and I think that they could get as few as seven. Of my predictions, I'm most worried about 125, 165 and 184.
Comment