Bracketology

[filbert]

Re: Bracketology

#12 seeds are almost exclusively at-large teams from "major" conferences. It would be highly unusual for an automatic-bid conference champion to sneak into a #12. The reason for this is sheer math.

Usually somewhere around 18 of the 31 conferences put only the tournament champion into the tournament's 68 slots. 68-18 is 50. 50/4 is 12.5, which means that multiple-bid conferences for the most part fill up all of the slots down to and including half of the 13-seed line. This also means to have any realistic chance of moving from the 13 to the 12, a team's RPI has to be at least 50 (for a major-conference team) and probably more like 20-30 for a mid-major conference, due to built-in biases such as scheduling realities for mid-majors along with things like name-recognition bias.

[jackdaniel]

Re: Bracketology

I think our RPI sits at 62. That is right on the borderline for at large bids which usually go to teams from power conferences. As I think about it more it is possible as conference champ and tourney champ (if that happens) with an RPI of 60 the Jacks could sneak up to the 12 line. I likely spoke too soon.

Just for fun,I took all conference auto bids out of 64(31) teams,that leaves 33 at large,all top 25 teams that don't get the auto bid i subtracted from 33 (using rivals . com as conference champs and auto bid winners,and the AP poll for top 25 teams),that left 33-17= 16 left (the number i believe the selection committee really has to fill)Using real time rpi for rpi,i accounted for the 16 open slots,being careful to include those i already accounted for,and filling in the 16 open slots strickly by rpi....i got only to rpi 41 and all 64 teams were picked(St John's)Done ,brackets filled.Of course, the Selection Committee can do whatever they want,but snubbing enough higher teams to get to rpi 60,i don't know?To secure aTournament at large bid,I'm talking about.

Seeds 1-10 would take in up to rpi 40.Next four top rpi (from projected auto bids)= seeds #11 in Tourney,and so on.SDSU being currently at rpi 63,our seed should be.....don't know, haven't figured it out yet.Fourteen sounds about right,unless we improve in rpi, i don't think we make 13 seed.My information is already outdated, so it's hard to guess,with everyone's rpi changing,at least the auto bids will be constant shortly,so will be one less variable.

Basically,if enough upsets occur in conference championships,teams with higher rpi than us win conference auto bid,we might sneak into a thirteen seed.Perhaps getting our rpi lower,maybe winning the tourney games by wide margin? I'll just be glad if we win it again.

[jackmd]

Re: Bracketology

#12 seeds are almost exclusively at-large teams from "major" conferences. It would be highly unusual for an automatic-bid conference champion to sneak into a #12. The reason for this is sheer math.

Usually somewhere around 18 of the 31 conferences put only the tournament champion into the tournament's 68 slots. 68-18 is 50. 50/4 is 12.5, which means that multiple-bid conferences for the most part fill up all of the slots down to and including half of the 13-seed line. This also means to have any realistic chance of moving from the 13 to the 12, a team's RPI has to be at least 50 (for a major-conference team) and probably more like 20-30 for a mid-major conference, due to built-in biases such as scheduling realities for mid-majors along with things like name-recognition bias.

I am now beginning to remember some of this conversation from previous years. A 13 seed is likely the best the Jacks will get with a 14 more likely and a 15 very possible.

[jackdaniel]

Re: Bracketology

#12 seeds are almost exclusively at-large teams from "major" conferences. It would be highly unusual for an automatic-bid conference champion to sneak into a #12. The reason for this is sheer math.

Usually somewhere around 18 of the 31 conferences put only the tournament champion into the tournament's 68 slots. 68-18 is 50. 50/4 is 12.5, which means that multiple-bid conferences for the most part fill up all of the slots down to and including half of the 13-seed line. This also means to have any realistic chance of moving from the 13 to the 12, a team's RPI has to be at least 50 (for a major-conference team) and probably more like 20-30 for a mid-major conference, due to built-in biases such as scheduling realities for mid-majors along with things like name-recognition bias.

Filbert,they've went to the 68 team format this year already?It's hard for me to keep up with the rapidly changing world we live in

In the 2008-2009 season,we were a ranked team,and got a seven seed in the tournament,but i can't remember what that teams rpi was ,it must have been very low,something like your 20-30 range above.

[filbert]

Re: Bracketology

Filbert,they've went to the 68 team format this year already?It's hard for me to keep up with the rapidly changing world we live in

In the 2008-2009 season,we were a ranked team,and got a seven seed in the tournament,but i can't remember what that teams rpi was ,it must have been very low,something like your 20-30 range above.

OK, confused, talking men's basketball instead of women's. Basic principle still applies though.

[OldHare]

Re: Bracketology

First thing is to get there, then then get the "upset". The women need to be able to continue the season if they get to the NCAA tourney. This group should know there is more than just getting there.

[LakeJack]

Re: Bracketology

ESPN

#13 SDSU vs. #4 North Carolina - Louisville, KY

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncw/bracketology

[SDHoops]

Re: Bracketology

Current Creme bracketology has us as a 13 seed playing 4 Dayton at Boulder, CO.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncw/bracketology

[LakeJack]

Re: Bracketology

http://www.argusleader.com/article/2...here-just-fine

[Chains]

Re: Bracketology

Current Creme bracketology has us as a 13 seed playing 4 Dayton at Boulder, CO.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncw/bracketology

Speculation is so much fun! I its driving the teams crazy! But, its a great crazy. Many teams already know their next apponent by looking at next years schedule.

Congrats to the womens team and best of luck dancing!

GBGBGJ

[OldHare]

Re: Bracketology

2 hours and the guessing will be over. The Jackrabbits will have an appointment.

[Southeast]

Re: Bracketology

Current Creme bracketology has us as a 13 seed playing 4 Dayton at Boulder, CO.http://sports.espn.go.com/ncw/bracketology

Something like this is all I'm asking. We have paid our dues. How about letting us play someone other than the host team.

[filbert]

Re: Bracketology

Is it wrong of me to want to see Tennessee-SDSU somewhere down the bracket? Sweet Sixteen sounds nice.

Pretty sure I could talk Snookums into going to the regional.

[SturgisJeff]

Re: Bracketology

Gabby makes intro video on selection show

[filbert]

Re: Bracketology

Gabby makes intro video on selection show

Crap, missed it. Probably typing.