Another 20 loss season??

[MontanaRabbit]

Re: Another 20 loss season??

[QUOTE=NoVaJack;156281]

Lets see we graduate three seniors and four other vets transfer/quit. Boy that bodes well for this year. Nagy has proven he can recuit talented players. His act though wears thin and has proven over and over again guys dont want to play for him. THAT is a fact. He must go and we must start over. I said the contrary in the spring but that was before the mass exodus.[/QUOTE]


you sure did, on March 7, in a thread entitled:
NAGY must ... Stay (for awhile)
"OK, not my usual message. But the team improved enough for Nagy to get a couple more years I figure. If no improvemen, then we should move on."

For the record, I also find most of Rabbitboys' posts annoying. Always beating a dead horse.

I will say he isn't calling for Nagy's head. Just stating his opinion that the team is going to struggle.

I am optimistic that they can contend. I think the talent is there...just raw. It is a fact that at the mid-major level experience and leadership is HUGE.

[goon]

Re: Another 20 loss season??

If anything, depth would be my concern, we are young and its a big challenge for younger guys to start logging big minutes right away. I suspect our athletic ability will be a noticable change and upgrade to the fans watching.

[rabidrabbit]

Re: Another 20 loss season??

Looking over the prospectus from the Summit League, IMHO Jacks will stay in the middle of the pack. Should see Jacks behind Oakland, IUPUI, ORU as they return lots of their talent and starters, and are likewise bringing in decent recruits. IPFW, NDSU, SDSU should be about .500 teams in Summit play. UMKC, WIU, SUU will be battling for the last spot, and Centenary will be dreadful, and already not eligible for the conference title due to APR in this last season of D-I. So that's a 9-9 in Summit. To get to 20 losses, Jacks would have to lose ALL 11 OOC games, (which includes 2 D-II teams). My guess is that Jacks win 4-6 OOC's minimum, so no a 20 loss season is unlikely. A .500 season maybe very likely.

[goon]

Re: Another 20 loss season??

Looking over the prospectus from the Summit League, IMHO Jacks will stay in the middle of the pack. Should see Jacks behind Oakland, IUPUI, ORU as they return lots of their talent and starters, and are likewise bringing in decent recruits. IPFW, NDSU, SDSU should be about .500 teams in Summit play. UMKC, WIU, SUU will be battling for the last spot, and Centenary will be dreadful, and already not eligible for the conference title due to APR in this last season of D-I. So that's a 9-9 in Summit. To get to 20 losses, Jacks would have to lose ALL 11 OOC games, (which includes 2 D-II teams). My guess is that Jacks win 4-6 OOC's minimum, so no a 20 loss season is unlikely. A .500 season maybe very likely.

Logic? Logic? we are talking logic here? sorry, that was my lame AI attempt. Way to bring logic into the conversation. Oddly enough it is hard to argue with logic.

[GopherHole]

Re: Another 20 loss season??

I've been sucked in...

Here is a synopsis of other league front line players. This does not include players that will line up in the back court on a regular basis. It is only to address the concerns over our lack of experince in the front court. Take a gander and judge for yourself on our ability to compete. The key is that our inside game only has to compliment our guard play this year.

Oakland - Few mid-major programs can compete with their front line. Keith Benson is a beast that will cause problems for all of D-1 basketball. He did it against Cole Aldrich last year. They also have 6'9" Sr. Will Hudson returning to the starting lineup. Finally, returning from last year are a 7' sophomore, 6'7" junior, and a 6'8" red shirt frosh.

Oral Roberts - Return two starting forwards that scored 28.6 points and 12.4 rebounds per game. They are undersized front line players, but they've done it before. Two bench players return that have size in a 6'9" wide body and a 6'10" roll player. Three more 6'7" freshmen/red shirt players add depth.

NDSU - Will be led by the former Pierre Governor, and All-Summit league member - Michael Tveidt. A 3-year starter for the Bison, he will draw significant attention from all opponents as posters on Bisonville believe he will be a strong contender for player of the year in the Summit. Eric Carlson also returns and he is an outstanding compliment to Tveidt, scoring 14.8 pts and 6.9 boards per game. The Bison had a very good recruiting class, featuring Trayvonne Wright - 6'7" 195 lb. PF and Marshall Bjorklund -6'6" 210 lb. PF. Both recieved high recruiting grade similar to Dykstra and Heemstra.

IUPUI - 1st team All-Summit and 2nd Team Mid-Major All-American, Alex Young, will be counted on to lead the front line for the Jags. He averaged over 18 pts and under 5 rebounds per game last year. However, there are numerous holes to help in down low. Leroy Nobles may have to play some major minutes as a small forward and he has significant experience. The other 5 front line players do not appear to match up well with the Rabbits in either size or skill.

UMKC - Will be improved from last year as a pair of 6'6" forwards return, including leading scorer Jay Couisnard. Cousinard was named to the All-Newcomber Summit team. Spencer Johnson returns for his senior year after posting 8.5 pts and a team high 5.8 rebounds per game. This is his 3rd year starting.

IPFW - The Mastadons have many questions like the Rabbits. Trey McCorkle returns as a 6'10" post who started 23 games and had minimal production scoring or rebounding. 6'5" John Peckinpaugh returns as a sub 2 pt/2 rebound forward, who did score 11 against the Rabbits last year. Three junior college transfers will be counted on to step up in the post, including a versatile 6'8" Ukraine player, and a 7' bean pole.

Western Illinois - Emeka Okafor, Jr. returns for his junior year. While he shares the same name as his third cousin who starred at UConn and in the NBA, he does not share the same high level game. He averaged 3.4 points and rebound per game last year. David Gebru returns in the post sporting a 6'10" frame and only 4 pts/2.8 rebound per game last year. They got a high quality power forward recruit in Mario Redmond, a 6'6" 205 forward from Crete, IL. He is athletic and can score from the arc and inside. But he is not listed on the Summit League preview roster, nor has a number been assigned to him as listed on the Western Illinois web site.

Centenary - Has 3 returning front line players, but they have a total of 3 starts among them and contributed an average 7.6 pts and 4.3 rebounds per game.

Southern Utah - Matt Hodgson, a 6'11" post from Australia returns for his sophomore season. He averaged 6.3 pts/4.8 rebounds per outing while starting all 29 games for them. Jackson Stevenett returns as a 6'4" forward with modest production last year.


The bottom line is that Oakland will be very difficult for our bigs to match up with. ORU has small athletic forwards, who can score. But we match up better with them athletically this year. NDSU has experience and depth to match its solid size. In my opinion, those are the only three teams that I could provide an argument that they will cause problems for us. Moreover, I think ORU, NDSU, and IUPUI are comparable to our bigs - except they have more experience and depth.

I like our matchups with the other 5 Summit schools. When you add our guard play and versatility with our bigger guards, I like our chances of avoiding a 20 loss season.

[89rabbit]

Re: Another 20 loss season??

20 loss season, I'd say that is unlikely when you look at the Summit as others are doing.

http://rushthecourt.net/2010/08/05/s...summit-league/


Go State!

[Jacked_Up]

Re: Another 20 loss season??

I was holding off making prediction hoping that we would add at least one more veteran (JC or four year transfer). I think anyone not looking through rose colored glasses has to see a 20 loss season in the cards. Its almost impossible to win win freshmen posts. Sorry to have to be the bearer of bad news.

I'd like to see your game-by-game prediction before giving such a dire forecast any credibility. It doesn't appear that the Jacks will only be playing teams with good, experienced, veteran post players.

[91jack]

Re: Another 20 loss season??

Lets see we graduate three seniors and four other vets transfer/quit. Boy that bodes well for this year. Nagy has proven he can recuit talented players. His act though wears thin and has proven over and over again guys dont want to play for him. THAT is a fact. He must go and we must start over. I said the contrary in the spring but that was before the mass exodus.

I know you have to throw the seniors in there but we will be as good this year if not better.
I think Palerca and Stephenson will be a wash. Cassaday and Rader wouldn't play anyway so I don't count them. That leaves Kai, Garrett, Engen and AC against Dykstra, Heemstra, Caralson and White. AC was injured so he would help but not like 2 years ago. I wish he was still playing but He didn't destroy the team by leaving. I just hope his health holds out. I think the seniors experience would put them up there but the 3 new guys will be solid enough to cancel them out.

[goon]

Re: Another 20 loss season??

I know you have to throw the seniors in there but we will be as good this year if not better.
I think Palerca and Stephenson will be a wash. Cassaday and Rader wouldn't play anyway so I don't count them. That leaves Kai, Garrett, Engen and AC against Dykstra, Heemstra, Caralson and White. AC was injured so he would help but not like 2 years ago. I wish he was still playing but He didn't destroy the team by leaving. I just hope his health holds out. I think the seniors experience would put them up there but the 3 new guys will be solid enough to cancel them out.

I might consider that the Iowa boys should be able to shoot free throws better the AC. So experience might not be there yet, but just for the fact they are talented and wont hurt us on the line like AC did is a positive in my book. Just imagine if AC was able to shoot FT at say even 50%, thats adds many many many more points during the year. Maybe some close losses turn in the close wins if he shot a normal percent. When he played hard he was strong and tough to move, but he hurt us with the hackacordova. Also, having several young guys who have played together will already give them a feel for the team. 4 players, 2 madison, 2 Iowa, already know the others game, thats less to adjust to then 4 all from different areas.

[TeaJackrabbit]

Re: Another 20 loss season??

We can start a winning tradition now, the last few years the players were always on losing teams, now we can start fresh and not worry about the negative mindset that may have been with the players of teams past. .

THIS. Even Nagy said last year that he worried some of the upperclassmen were broken and couldn't be fixed. I view most of the player losses as a positive. I still respect what they did for SDSU, but the losing mindset, the negativity I have heard about and the lack of fire will not be missed. Just my opinion.

[TeaJackrabbit]

Re: Another 20 loss season??

Williams & Callahan played through pain for Nagy. Cordova played through pain for Nagy and has said that he considers Nagy 'a father'.

Rader & Cassaday saw Heemstra, Dykstra, White and Fiegen ahead of them on the depth chart and knew exactly where they stood. Nagy plays deep, but you still don't want to be the 3rd guy in line for time at your spot.

Actually Rader wanted to stay quite badly and was hurt when his schollie was pulled. I think Cassaday could've helped this year. he would've been the 4th big and would probably only get a few minutes a game, but still. I liked him. BUT...if his being unhappy meant he wasn't a good teammate then I say good riddance. Not a big issue but I don't recall the "end of the bench guys" being real "rah-rah" guys like you see on alot of teams. Now we see why (they weren't happy).

[TeaJackrabbit]

Re: Another 20 loss season??

I know you have to throw the seniors in there but we will be as good this year if not better.
I think Palerca and Stephenson will be a wash. Cassaday and Rader wouldn't play anyway so I don't count them. That leaves Kai, Garrett, Engen and AC against Dykstra, Heemstra, Caralson and White. AC was injured so he would help but not like 2 years ago. I wish he was still playing but He didn't destroy the team by leaving. I just hope his health holds out. I think the seniors experience would put them up there but the 3 new guys will be solid enough to cancel them out.

POINT GUARD:
It's very reasonable to think Wolters will be very much improved. Late in the year he gained confidence in his 3pt shot. If he is at least decent in that area this year he will be a nightmare for opposition. I also see him being more agressive w/ so many upperclassman gone and that will be a very welcomed sight. Few guys in this league better in the closing minutes of game. 15ppg 5apg 1.5spg

IMO Stephenson is an upgrade over Mike. I think alot of people might be surprised w/ this young man. Pretty much led his Juco team in every major category. A very nice kid and I can see him and Nate on the floor at the same time. 4ppg 2apg

SHOOTING GUARD/SMALL FORWARD:
Hopefully the motivation most seniors get works for Sarg. He will get more attention this year from opposition so he'll need others to step up. His making 3's is a huge thing for us. he;ll be in heaven if we are as improved offensively inside as I think we will and if Nate is as aggressive in driving and driving/dishing as I think he will be. 15ppg

Moss is also a senior. Hopefully w/ some distractions/friends gone he can focus on being a leader. The more scoring he doesn't have to worry about the better. If Nate, Sarg and Dykstra can average 60% of our scoring he can just concentrate on flying around and making things happen. 5ppg 4rpg

White is going to be very good this year I believe. He might be that outside shooter we need. I can see him log this 3rd most minutes at guard. 6ppg

Grif came is as a regarded shooter but has never lived up. Maybe this year that changes. Imagine a Grif who consistently makes jumpers. That's a kid who would be tough to take off the floor. 4ppg

Carlson is a big question mark. I see him getting on the floor a decent amount only if we need jump shooters. If Sarg and Grif and White are making shots Brayden might sit til next year.

INSIDE:
Obviously Dykstra is well hyped, and rightly so. I think he's going to be a matchup problem for most bigmen not wearing ORU or Oakland uniforms. i expect him to be more polished than most low-major freshman but he will also have his freshman moments/games. 13ppg 7rpg 1bspg

Heemstra is a kid I can just see surprising and being steady. i think he's a coaches dream who doesn't have the homerun potential Dykstra does but is going to be just rock solid and grab rebounds and do things. 7ppg 8rpg

I think Fiegen takes another step forward. At times he looked very impressive last year. Hopefully we see more of those this year. 4ppg 5rpg

[91jack]

Re: Another 20 loss season??

Actually Rader wanted to stay quite badly and was hurt when his schollie was pulled. I think Cassaday could've helped this year. he would've been the 4th big and would probably only get a few minutes a game, but still. I liked him. BUT...if his being unhappy meant he wasn't a good teammate then I say good riddance. Not a big issue but I don't recall the "end of the bench guys" being real "rah-rah" guys like you see on alot of teams. Now we see why (they weren't happy).

I just didn't know what to think of Cassaday. He wasn't tall or athletic enough to play down low. He would use his body and try hard but just wasn't gifted with the DI athletic ability(in my limited opinion). I don't know if he could have been a Loney type guy or not. Loney will be a guy that I'll remember for a long time. He had the same disadvantages with his height and athletic ability but his heart couldn't be measured.
I'd like to have one more big this year, too, but I think this will be the best teams we've had (as far as bigs) since we've went DI. Last year, we had a injured AC, Engen and Feigen. This year, we have a more experienced Feigen, Dykstra and Heemstra. We have 2 true freshmen but they are the higher rated players than the ones that left.

[91jack]

Re: Another 20 loss season??

[QUOTE=TeaJackrabbit;156477]POINT GUARD:
It's very reasonable to think Wolters will be very much improved. Late in the year he gained confidence in his 3pt shot. If he is at least decent in that area this year he will be a nightmare for opposition. I also see him being more agressive w/ so many upperclassman gone and that will be a very welcomed sight. Few guys in this league better in the closing minutes of game. 15ppg 5apg 1.5spg

IMO Stephenson is an upgrade over Mike. I think alot of people might be surprised w/ this young man. Pretty much led his Juco team in every major category. A very nice kid and I can see him and Nate on the floor at the same time. 4ppg 2apg

SHOOTING GUARD/SMALL FORWARD:
Hopefully the motivation most seniors get works for Sarg. He will get more attention this year from opposition so he'll need others to step up. His making 3's is a huge thing for us. he;ll be in heaven if we are as improved offensively inside as I think we will and if Nate is as aggressive in driving and driving/dishing as I think he will be. 15ppg

Moss is also a senior. Hopefully w/ some distractions/friends gone he can focus on being a leader. The more scoring he doesn't have to worry about the better. If Nate, Sarg and Dykstra can average 60% of our scoring he can just concentrate on flying around and making things happen. 5ppg 4rpg

White is going to be very good this year I believe. He might be that outside shooter we need. I can see him log this 3rd most minutes at guard. 6ppg



Wolters 3 point shot is what I've been waiting for. He always seemed to like to drive to the hoop and get to the line. Later in the year, they were waiting for that so he had more time to get his shot off.

Stephenson over Mike, I'll go along with. I just haven't seen him play and thought I'd give Mike prop's for what he did.

I agree that White might be the outside shooter we need. I remember him hitting a few of those from the left wing in the game that he played. That's a small sample size but if he comes back to what I thought he was, he will help a lot.

[huskon4ever]

Re: Another 20 loss season??

Gopherhole had a nice rundown of teams and what their inside game will look like - thanks for that.

Referring to the original post, I cannot see SDSU losing 20 games (even as a Bison fan), but most of you know there will be growing pains this year. I cannot imagine a team losing all the pieces you did and adding (much hyped) freshman not have some ups and downs. From my point of view, there just is not enough experience to be a force in the Summit - as another poster said, .500 and mid-pack is likely and anything better I would assume to be icing.

I compare this to my soph year @ NDSU with the 'fab four'. Sure there was a lot of hype with all those guys as there should have been, but that team lacked experience and senior leadership. Of course with all that youth, comes moments of greatness when they put it all together and take down a superior team like #13 Wisconsin.

I also look at it like this year with NDSU - we have gotten a few really solid recruits (like SDSU), but they are just that, recruits = young and inexperienced. Nobody knows how freshman are going to react once they get into a game. The Kentucky reference made me think about Cousins/Wall. Cousins is a helluva player as is Wall, but what has been the knock about Cousins? Doesn't hustle, me attitude, isn't mature and it shows just as much as his unbelievable talent. Is that possible with any knew recruit? Sure is. I guess I'll take the wait and see approach with both teams and hope for the best with both teams (except when the Bunnies play the Bison naturally). December 4th is fast approaching!