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  • #1

    Playoffs

    Win out and we are the #1 seed. Lose one of the remaining 2 and we should still be #1 or #2, and definitely still #3 or #4. The only scenario I do not see SDSU as a top 4 seed is losing to YSU and MSU.

    Montana State...6-2... IMO is the #2 team in the country and is a play away in the SDSU and Idaho games from being 8-0 and #1. They are still the team that scares me the most. If they win out, they will be 8-2 with a victory over Montana. I would guess they will be a #3 or #4. Hopefully a #3 because I would rather face them in Frisco than Brookings, but either way I expect to play them again this year. If they lose to Montana and finish 7-3, then they might not be seeded.

    Montana... 8-1... If they win out, which would include a previous victory over Idaho and an upcoming victory over Montana State, then they would be the #2 seed at 10-1.

    Idaho... 7-2... with losses to Montana and California. If they win out (which they should) at 9-2, they are surely a 2-4 seed (#2 if Montana State beats Montana, #3 or #4 if Montana wins out).

    Will the Big Sky have 3 of the 4 seeded teams? Unfortunately I do not know enough about Furman or Delaware to comment on them, but I would assume that one of them will be seeded and knock out 1 of the 3 Big Sky Teams.

    Throw in the geography of the playoffs, and SDSU could have to play UNI, NDSU, or an unseeded Big Sky team prior to the semis. While we should win any of those matchups in the playoffs in Brookings, none are 100% guaranteed wins. NDSU could even finish the year at 6-5 and out of the playoffs, it's not unrealistic for them to drop their next 2 to SIU and UNI.
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  • #2
    Delaware's second loss may hurt their chances for a seed.
    You know that you're over the hill when your mind makes a promise that your body can't fill. - L. George

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Prairiehaas View Post
      Delaware's second loss may hurt their chances for a seed.
      Definitely does, I didn't even realize they lost to Elon. Thought they still had one loss on the year.

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      • #4
        The one thing that should work in the Jacks favor seeding wise even if they would lose a game is their six wins over currently ranked teams. No other FCS teams have more than three. Idaho and Montana have two. Montana State only has one.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by bigticket1 View Post
          The one thing that should work in the Jacks favor seeding wise even if they would lose a game is their six wins over currently ranked teams. No other FCS teams have more than three. Idaho and Montana have two. Montana State only has one.
          Herder had an interesting podcast with the FCS playoff committee chair - Kent Haslam. It's certainly worth a listen on how the FCS playoff selection process works. A big takeaway for me was at the 26:00 mark, that ranked wins count at the time of game, not final rankings - though he did say an early ranked win can start to diminish if that team falls off hard and has a poor season.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by RahRahRabbits View Post

            Herder had an interesting podcast with the FCS playoff committee chair - Kent Haslam. It's certainly worth a listen on how the FCS playoff selection process works. A big takeaway for me was at the 26:00 mark, that ranked wins count at the time of game, not final rankings - though he did say an early ranked win can start to diminish if that team falls off hard and has a poor season.
            I believe that Illinois State was ranked when we beat them, so that would add one.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by bigticket1 View Post

              I believe that Illinois State was ranked when we beat them, so that would add one.
              Gonna start looking like a Herder-homer here... but here's another of his articles. It's one of the few spots that accurately puts together this ranked win topic. SDSU is by far the FCS leader in ranked wins, in both then and now. And we have another chance to add to that number with Youngstown being rated 22 in the STATS poll. It also show's how hollow some of the other top-10 teams are with zero ranked wins.

              Had to look up your point, bigticket --- According to this Wikipedia summary, it looks like Illinois State was ranked at the time of our game in the Coaches poll, but not the STATS media poll which is where Sam is pulling his rankings from.

              Edit: Not sure where the committee is pulling their ranked wins info from though. Kent did say they get their strength of schedule information from NCAA metrics - so shows they of course want to stay with their officially sponsored data and not rely on outside stats/data. I'd imagine their ranked info comes from the STATS poll, and hopefully not the coaches.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by RahRahRabbits View Post

                Gonna start looking like a Herder-homer here... but here's another of his articles. It's one of the few spots that accurately puts together this ranked win topic. SDSU is by far the FCS leader in ranked wins, in both then and now. And we have another chance to add to that number with Youngstown being rated 22 in the STATS poll. It also show's how hollow some of the other top-10 teams are with zero ranked wins.

                Had to look up your point, bigticket --- According to this Wikipedia summary, it looks like Illinois State was ranked at the time of our game in the Coaches poll, but not the STATS media poll which is where Sam is pulling his rankings from.

                Edit: Not sure where the committee is pulling their ranked wins info from though. Kent did say they get their strength of schedule information from NCAA metrics - so shows they of course want to stay with their officially sponsored data and not rely on outside stats/data. I'd imagine their ranked info comes from the STATS poll, and hopefully not the coaches.
                I was surprised that Montana State only has one, based on the current rankings. They probably pick up one more as Weber was likely still ranked when they played them early. If they lose at Montana, it will be interesting where they would get seeded with 3 FCS losses.

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                • #9
                  Idaho, UNI, UND, and SIU (barring an epic Bison collapse) all lose today

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by jakejc795 View Post
                    Idaho, UNI, UND, and SIU (barring an epic Bison collapse) all lose today
                    Idaho and USD could very well end up as the 4 and 5 seeds.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by bigticket1 View Post

                      Idaho and USD could very well end up as the 4 and 5 seeds.
                      Wouldn't suprise me at all.

                      What will be really interesting is what happens if UNI defeats NDSU next week.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by jakejc795 View Post

                        Wouldn't suprise me at all.

                        What will be really interesting is what happens if UNI defeats NDSU next week.
                        Even if the Bison win (judging by todays games they should) it’ll still be an interesting situation for the top 8. NDSU would be 8-3 with three FCS losses and their best win being against Central Arkansas. Hard to see the Bison being in the top 8 when Idaho, Sac State, Montana State, Albany, Western Carolina, Mercer, and Villanova all having just as good or better resumes.

                        The teams I would guarantee being seeded right now are SDSU, USD, Furman, and Montana (assuming they beat Portland today). Delaware plays Villanova next week and the winner will be seeded, but the loser will have to wait and see.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by jakejc795 View Post

                          Wouldn't suprise me at all.

                          What will be really interesting is what happens if UNI defeats NDSU next week.
                          That would scramble seeds a bit. It does look like the Big Sky may have 4 teams with 8 wins. Could a UNI win mean only 2 MVFC teams with a seed and 4 Big Sky?
                          You know that you're over the hill when your mind makes a promise that your body can't fill. - L. George

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by jakejc795 View Post

                            Wouldn't suprise me at all.

                            What will be really interesting is what happens if UNI defeats NDSU next week.
                            I'm also interested how far Montana State drops if they lose at Montana. Probably no lower than 6 or 7. The two Montana schools on the other side of the bracket would be fine with me.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by JacksFan80 View Post
                              Even if the Bison win (judging by todays games they should) it’ll still be an interesting situation for the top 8. NDSU would be 8-3 with three FCS losses and their best win being against Central Arkansas. Hard to see the Bison being in the top 8 when Idaho, Sac State, Montana State, Albany, Western Carolina, Mercer, and Villanova all having just as good or better resumes.

                              The teams I would guarantee being seeded right now are SDSU, USD, Furman, and Montana (assuming they beat Portland today). Delaware plays Villanova next week and the winner will be seeded, but the loser will have to wait and see.
                              Sac State could still lose to Cal Poly tonight, and I hope they're looking objectively at resumes, but I have a fear that they'll try to maximize the Bison seed.

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