2021 Fall, Polls and Sagarin Rankings

[JackJD]

From the Sagarin D-1 rankings as of Sept 6, 2021 (Week 1).
I pulled out the top 25 FCS teams and also included the Missouri Valley Football Conference teams who are not in the top 25. SDSU is the highest rated FCS program, coming in at #62 in the full-D1 Sagarin Week 1 rankings. Of course, Sagarin’s rankings/predictions etc. can (and should) significantly improve in “accuracy” as more games are played. You’ll note there are some “top 25 FCS teams” who haven’t won a game yet. The season is early!!

For the full Sagarin Week 1 rankings, go to:
https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/...-ratings-2021/

THE “TOP 25” FCS TEAMS IN THE WEEK 1 RATINGS:

62 South Dakota State MVFC
97 James Madison COLONIAL
98 Montana BIG SKY
99 North Dakota State MVFC
106 Sam Houston State AQ7
109 North Dakota MVFC
110 Northern Iowa MVFC
114 Southern Illinois MVFC
119 Weber State BIG SKY
123 Eastern Washington BIG SKY
125 Princeton IVY LEAGUE
126 Montana State BIG SKY
127 UC Davis BIG SKY
129 Missouri State MVFC
130 Samford SOUTHERN
131 SE Louisiana SOUTHLAND
136 Villanova COLONIAL
137 Delaware COLONIAL
138 Illinois State MVFC
142 East Tennessee State SOUTHERN
143 Sacramento State BIG SKY
144 Furman SOUTHERN
145 South Dakota MVFC
147 Dartmouth IVY LEAGUE
148 Central Arkansas AQ7

Here are the Week 1 rankings of the other Missouri Valley Football Conference teams:
152 Youngstown State
168 Western Illinois
176 Indiana State

[JackJD]

From the Sagarin D-1 rankings as of Sept 12, 2021 (Week 2).
I pulled out the top 25 FCS teams and also included the Missouri Valley Football Conference teams who are not in the top 25. SDSU is the highest rated FCS program, coming in at #68 in the full-D1 Sagarin Week 2 rankings. There are 258 Division I teams (FBS and FCS) covered in the ratings.

For the full Sagarin Week 2 rankings, go to:
https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/...-ratings-2021/

THE “TOP 25” FCS TEAMS IN THE WEEK 2 RATINGS


68 South Dakota State MVC
89 North Dakota State MVC
92 Montana BIG SKY
93 James Madison COLONIAL
105 Sam Houston State AQ7
106 Northern Iowa MVC
110 Southern Illinois MVC
112 Weber State BIG SKY
117 UC Davis BIG SKY
118 Eastern Washington BIG SKY
120 Montana State BIG SKY
121 North Dakota MVC
122 East Tennessee State SOUTHERN
123 Princeton IVY LEAGUE
126 Villanova COLONIAL
130 Missouri State MVC
134 SE Louisiana SOUTHLAND
137 South Dakota MVC
139 Jacksonville State AQ7
141 Dartmouth IVY LEAGUE
142 Yale IVY LEAGUE
143 Nicholls State SOUTHLAND
145 Delaware COLONIAL
146 Central Arkansas AQ7
147 Illinois State MVC

Here are the Week 2 rankings of the other Missouri Valley Football Conference teams:

156 Youngstown State MVC
176 Indiana State MVC
180 Western Illinois MVC

[JackJD]

Top 25 FCS teams in the Week 3 Sagarin ratings (games through 9/18/21) as revised:

Listed below are the top 25 FCS teams per Sagarin's ratings method along with Missouri Valley Football Conference teams who are not in the Sagarin FCS top 25. Sagarin ranks all 258 Division I teams (FBS and FCS).. The number is the team's ranking among all 25 Division 1 teams

Link to the USA Today - Jeff Sagarin ratings:
https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/...-ratings-2021/


41 South Dakota State MVFC
71 James Madison Colonial
79 Montana Big Sky
90 North Dakota State MVFC
93 Southern Illinois MVFC
102 Northern Iowa MVFC
105 Sam Houston State WAC
112 Weber State Big Sky
114 UC Davis BIG SKY
115 E Tennessee State Southland
116 SE Louisiana Southland
117 Montana State Big Sky
120 Harvard Ivy League
121 North Dakota MVFC
123 South Dakota MVFC
124 Princeton Ivy League
128 Missouri State MVFC
129 Chattanooga Southern
130 Eastern Washington Big Sky
134 Kennesaw State Big South
135 Austin Peay Ohio Valley
137 Monmouth-NJ Big South
138 Incarnate Word Southland
140 Youngstown State MVFC
141 Illinois State MVFC

Here are the Week 3 rankings of the other Missouri Valley Football Conference teams,
162 Indiana State MVFC
176 Western Illinois MVFC

[JackJD]

Top 25 FCS teams in the Week 4 Sagarin ratings (games through 9/26/21):

Listed below are the top 25 FCS teams per Sagarin's ratings method along with Missouri Valley Football Conference teams who are not in the Sagarin FCS top 25. Sagarin ranks all 258 Division I teams (FBS and FCS).. The number is the team's ranking among all 25 Division 1 teams.

Link to the USA Today - Jeff Sagarin ratings:
https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/...-ratings-2021/

45 South Dakota State MVC
71 James Madison COLONIAL
77 Montana BIG SKY
80 North Dakota State MVC
96 Sam Houston State AQ7
97 Northern Iowa MVC
100 Southern Illinois MVC
106 UC Davis BIG SKY
114 Eastern Washington BIG SKY
116 Missouri State MVC
117 Weber State BIG SKY
119 SE Louisiana SOUTHLAND
121 Montana State BIG SKY
122 North Dakota MVC
124 Princeton IVY LEAGUE
126 East Tennessee State SOUTHERN
127 South Dakota MVC
131 Villanova COLONIAL
132 Kennesaw State BIG SOUTH
135 Harvard IVY LEAGUE
136 Incarnate Word SOUTHLAND
137 Mercer SOUTHERN
139 Delaware COLONIAL
141 Chattanooga SOUTHERN
145 Nicholls State SOUTHLAND


Ranking of the four MVFC teams not in the top 25 FCS teams as ranked by Sagarin for week 4:
151 Illinois State
155 Youngstown State
169 Indiana State
172 Western Illinois

Of the 86 D-I teams ranked below #172 Western Illinois in the USA Today - Sagarin rankings for Week 4, there are five D-I FBS schools.

The Jacks host Dixie State in the Beef Bowl on Saturday, October 2. In the week 4 USA Today - Sagarin rankings, Dixie State is #228 out of 258.

[rabbits64]

Top 25 FCS teams in the Week 34 Sagarin ratings (games through 9/26/21):

Listed below are the top 25 FCS teams per Sagarin's ratings method along with Missouri Valley Football Conference teams who are not in the Sagarin FCS top 25. Sagarin ranks all 258 Division I teams (FBS and FCS).. The number is the team's ranking among all 25 Division 1 teams.

Link to the USA Today - Jeff Sagarin ratings:
https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/...-ratings-2021/

45 South Dakota State MVC
71 James Madison COLONIAL
77 Montana BIG SKY
80 North Dakota State MVC
96 Sam Houston State AQ7
97 Northern Iowa MVC
100 Southern Illinois MVC
106 UC Davis BIG SKY
114 Eastern Washington BIG SKY
116 Missouri State MVC
117 Weber State BIG SKY
119 SE Louisiana SOUTHLAND
121 Montana State BIG SKY
122 North Dakota MVC
124 Princeton IVY LEAGUE
126 East Tennessee State SOUTHERN
127 South Dakota MVC
131 Villanova COLONIAL
132 Kennesaw State BIG SOUTH
135 Harvard IVY LEAGUE
136 Incarnate Word SOUTHLAND
137 Mercer SOUTHERN
139 Delaware COLONIAL
141 Chattanooga SOUTHERN
145 Nicholls State SOUTHLAND


Ranking of the four MVFC teams not in the top 25 FCS teams as ranked by Sagarin for week 4:
151 Illinois State
155 Youngstown State
169 Indiana State
172 Western Illinois

Of the 86 D-I teams ranked below #172 Western Illinois in the USA Today - Sagarin rankings for Week 4, there are five D-I FBS schools.

The Jacks host Dixie State in the Beef Bowl on Saturday, October 2. In the week 4 USA Today - Sagarin rankings, Dixie State is #228 out of 258.

If you go to the full rankings it is fun to see who we are ranked over:
Arizona State
BYU
Stanford
USC
Nebraska
Miami (the U)
Tennessee
Missouri
Minnesota

[mnjackrbt]

I've always viewed the Sagarin Rankings, and any other similar type of rankings (I know a lot of states have similar rankings for their High School sports) as the most accurate rankings out there. They take some real raw unbiased data and algorithm's to come up with the rankings, as opposed to biases, popular teams and traditionally good teams.

[Prairiehaas]

I like to follow the Massy rankings comparison at, https://masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm. It take a composite of 30+ rankings, drops the high and low and then uses the mean ranking. Early in the season there is quite a bit of noise. After 5-6 games that smooths out and it becomes a good predictor. Right now it has SDSU at #2 with a mean of 2.95 and a median of 2. This ranking also includes a game predictor, just click on a team to go to predictor. Right now State is predicted to win out with closest games vs SIU, NDSU and USD (as I said after 5-6 games ...).

[JackJD]

I look at the Massy ratings, too. As a season grinds on, the computer-based systems like Massy and Sagarin, become more and more accurate. But the fun part about college ball, are the unexpected results and upsets which serve to justify the time-worn bromide “That’s why they play the game.”

The Missouri Valley Football Conference has seven teams ranked in the top 25 FCS Sagarin rankings for week 4. The Big Sky has five. So, if one separates away the FBS schools, here are the FCS rankings for the top two FCS conferences based on number of teams ranked in the top 25, the MVFC and the Big Sky:

MVFC (11 schools)
1. SDSU
4. NDSU
6. UNI
7. SIU
10. MO State
14. UND
17. USD


Big Sky (11 schools...Southern Utah U moves to the WAC in 2022)
3. Montana
8. UC-Davis
9. Eastern Washington
11. Weber
13. Montana State

[JackJD]

Top 25 FCS teams in the Week 5 Sagarin ratings (games through October 2, 2021):

The first number is the rank among just FCS teams. The second number is the Sagarin rank for the team as determined among all 258 D1 teams. The MVFC teams not in the top 25 are listed below by their overall D-1 ranking projected by Sagarin.

The USA-Today/Sagarin site:
https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/...-ratings-2021/



1 (49) South Dakota State MVFC
2 (73) North Dakota State MVFC
3 (76) James Madison CAA
4 (87) Montana Big Sky
5 (89) Northern Iowa MVFC
6 (94) Sam Houston State AQ7
7 (99) Eastern Washington BIG SKY
8 (105) Southern Illinois MVFC
9 (108) Missouri State MVFC
10 (113) UC Davis BIG SKY
11 (114) Montana State BIG SKY
12 (121) South Dakota MVFC
13 (122) Harvard Ivy League
14 (124) Weber State BIG SKY
15 (125) Princeton IVY LEAGUE
16 (128) SE Louisiana SOUTHLAND
17 (130) North Dakota MVFC
18 (131) Kennesaw State BIG SOUTH
19 (133) Villanova COLONIAL
20 (135) Incarnate Word SOUTHLAND
21 (136) Dartmouth IVY LEAGUE
22 (138) Central Arkansas AQ7
23 (139) East Tennessee State SOUTHERN
24 (140) Mercer SOUTHERN
25 (142) Stephen F. Austin AQ7

Sagarin rankings of the remaining MVFC teams:

152 Youngstown State MVFC
154 Western Illinois MVFC
158 Illinois State MVFC
180 Indiana State MVFC

[JackJD]

Top 25 FCS teams in the Week 6 Sagarin computer ratings (games through October 9, 2021):


The first number is the rank among just FCS teams. The second number is the Sagarin rank for the team as determined among all 258 D1 teams. The MVFC teams not in the top 25 are listed below by their overall D-1 ranking computed by Sagarin.

The USA-Today/Sagarin site:
https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/...-ratings-2021/


1 (54) South Dakota State MVFC
2 (64) North Dakota State MVFC
3 (92) James Madison COLONIAL
4 (94) Northern Iowa MVFC
5 (95) Southern Illinois MVFC
6 (98) Eastern Washington BIG SKY
7 (99) Montana BIG SKY
8 (102) Sam Houston State AQ7
9 (114) Montana State BIG SKY
10 (115) Villanova COLONIAL
11 (117) SE Louisiana SOUTHLAND
12 (119) Missouri State MVFC
13 (121) South Dakota MVFC
14 (123) Princeton IVY LEAGUE
15 (124) Harvard IVY LEAGUE
16 (125) Kennesaw State BIG SOUTH
17 (128) Weber State BIG SKY
18 (130) North Dakota MVFC
19 (132) UC Davis BIG SKY
20 (133) East Tennessee State SOUTHERN
21 (136) Dartmouth IVY LEAGUE
22 (137) Incarnate Word SOUTHLAND
23 (140) Youngstown State MVFC
24 (141) Mercer SOUTHERN
25 (145) Sacramento State BIG SKY


Sagarin rating of the remaining MVFC teams:

(168) Illinois State MVFC
(169) Western Illinois MVFC
(172) Indiana State MVFC

[JackJD]

Adding to this thread the Stats and NCAA Coaches Polls for FCS football..The polls are the collected opinions of the individuals voting in the polls. The Sagarin rating is a composite ranked dervied from statistical analysis. Polling and computer analysis both have their faults. And, as the season wears on, both tend fo become more accurate in predicting future success based on past performance.

So, first the Stats Perform top 10 (through October 9 games), starting with rank, the prior week's rank, the team and the team's season record.

1 (1)	Sam Houston	5-0
2 (4)	Eastern Washington	6-0
3 (5)	North Dakota State	5-0
4 (8)	Southern Illinois	5-1
5 (6)	Montana	4-1
6 (11)	Villanova	4-1
7 (2)	South Dakota State	4-1
8 (3)	James Madison	4-1
9 (10)	Montana State	5-1
10 (12)	East Tennessee State	6-0

Link to the Stats poll:
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/footba...orm-fcs-top-25



Next, the FCS Coaches' Poll top 10 (through October 9 games), starting with rank, the prior week's rank, the team and the team's season record.

1 (1)	Sam Houston	5-0
2 (4)	Eastern Washington	6-0
3 (5)	North Dakota State	5-0
4 (7)	Southern Illinois	5-1
5 (9)	Villanova	4-1
6 (6)	Montana	4-1
7 (2)	James Madison	4-1
8 (3)	South Dakota State	4-1
9 (11)	Montana State	5-1
10 (13)	East Tennessee State	6-0

Link to the coaches' poll:
https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/a...s-coaches-poll

[jakejc795]

Adding to this thread the Stats and NCAA Coaches Polls for FCS football..The polls are the collected opinions of the individuals voting in the polls. The Sagarin rating is a composite ranked dervied from statistical analysis. Polling and computer analysis both have their faults. And, as the season wears on, both tend fo become more accurate in predicting future success based on past performance.

So, first the Stats Perform top 10 (through October 9 games), starting with rank, the prior week's rank, the team and the team's season record.

1 (1)	Sam Houston	5-0
2 (4)	Eastern Washington	6-0
3 (5)	North Dakota State	5-0
4 (8)	Southern Illinois	5-1
5 (6)	Montana	4-1
6 (11)	Villanova	4-1
7 (2)	South Dakota State	4-1
8 (3)	James Madison	4-1
9 (10)	Montana State	5-1
10 (12)	East Tennessee State	6-0

Link to the Stats poll:
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/footba...orm-fcs-top-25



Next, the FCS Coaches' Poll top 10 (through October 9 games), starting with rank, the prior week's rank, the team and the team's season record.

1 (1)	Sam Houston	5-0
2 (4)	Eastern Washington	6-0
3 (5)	North Dakota State	5-0
4 (7)	Southern Illinois	5-1
5 (9)	Villanova	4-1
6 (6)	Montana	4-1
7 (2)	James Madison	4-1
8 (3)	South Dakota State	4-1
9 (11)	Montana State	5-1
10 (13)	East Tennessee State	6-0

Link to the coaches' poll:
https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/a...s-coaches-poll

JMU loses to a lower-ranked team and is still ranked above Jacks

Wonder how much of that is the Lindenwood effect (damn Tarleton State!!!), although their drubbing of Morehead State shouldn't exactly inspire many votes either.

[JackJD]

Good point, jakejc.

Another observation: The Stats and Coaches polls both ranked SIU fourth (they were ranked Stats 8 and Caoches 7, and dropped SDSU to 7th Stats and 8 in the Coaches' poll. Compare: Montana won its game against Dixie State 31-14 in Missoula; A week before, SDSU was up 35-0 over Dixie State in just the first half and, with the starting players mainly riding the bench in the second half, the Jacks went on to a 55-7 win over Dixie State. In the Stats poll, Montana moved from 6 to 5 with its win over Dixie STate; while, in the Coaches' poll, Montana remained ranked #6. So, the opinion polls have their faults -- the Sagarin statistics-based computing ranking takes into consideration strength of opponents etc. Bottom line: there's a reason they play the game. Polls and rankings are fun to follow but they aren't perfect.

[jakejc795]

Good point, jakejc.

Another observation: The Stats and Coaches polls both ranked SIU fourth (they were ranked Stats 8 and Caoches 7, and dropped SDSU to 7th Stats and 8 in the Coaches' poll. Compare: Montana won its game against Dixie State 31-14 in Missoula; A week before, SDSU was up 35-0 over Dixie State in just the first half and, with the starting players mainly riding the bench in the second half, the Jacks went on to a 55-7 win over Dixie State. In the Stats poll, Montana moved from 6 to 5 with its win over Dixie STate; while, in the Coaches' poll, Montana remained ranked #6. So, the opinion polls have their faults -- the Sagarin statistics-based computing ranking takes into consideration strength of opponents etc. Bottom line: there's a reason they play the game. Polls and rankings are fun to follow but they aren't perfect.

I wish there could be a confidential disclosure of teams that refuse to play others to poll voters.

My biased perspective is that the Salukis have an easier time scheduling non-conference opponents than the Jacks, given comparative records when schedules were made in prior years. This could also serve to reduce lily-livered refusals to schedule teams like Jacks.

Lastly, I'm curious how much influence the Jacks' win at CSU has versus the Salukis' loss to the more-highly-Massey-rated Wildcats.

All I can say now is "go UND and UNI!" against those mulleted mutts!

[JackJD]

Top 25 FCS teams in the Week 7 Sagarin computer ratings (games through October 16, 2021):

The first number is the rank among just FCS teams. The second number is the Sagarin rank for the team as determined among all 258 D1 teams. The three MVFC teams not in the top 25 are listed below by their overall D-1 ranking computed by Sagarin.

The USA-Today/Sagarin site:
https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/...-ratings-2021/


1 (50) South Dakota State MVFC
2 (58) North Dakota State MVFC
3 (89) Eastern Washington BIG SKY
4 (92) James Madison COLONIAL
5 (95) Southern Illinois MVFC
6 (101) Sam Houston State AQ7
7 (102) Northern Iowa MVFC
8 (104) Montana State BIG SKY
9 (105) Montana BIG SKY
10 (106)South Dakota MVFC
11 (113)Missouri State MVFC
12 (119)Harvard IVY LEAGUE
13 (120)Villanova COLONIAL
14 (122)Kennesaw State BIG SOUTH
15 (123)North Dakota MVFC
16 (124)Dartmouth IVY LEAGUE
17 (126)SE Louisiana SOUTHLAND
18 (128)Princeton IVY LEAGUE
19 (130)Incarnate Word SOUTHLAND
20 (132)Weber State BIG SKY
21 (133)UC Davis BIG SKY
22 (134)Sacramento State BIG SKY
23 (138)East Tennessee State SOUTHERN
24 (141)Youngstown State MVFC
25 (144)Chattanooga SOUTHERN

164 Illinois State MVFC
166 Western Illinois MVFC
178 Indiana State MVFC

COMPARE:
Top 10 Stats Perform FCS poll after 10/16:

1	Sam Houston (35)
2	Eastern Washington (14)
3	North Dakota State (1)
4	Southern Illinois
5	Villanova
6	South Dakota State
7	James Madison
8	Montana State
9	Southeastern Louisiana
10	UC Davis

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/footba...orm-fcs-top-25


Here's the top 10 in the FCS Coaches' Poll after 10/16

1	Sam Houston (26)
2	Eastern Washington (2)
3	North Dakota State
4	Southern Illinois
5	Villanova
6	James Madison
7	South Dakota State
8	Montana State
9	Southeastern Louisiana
10	UC Davis

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/footba...s-coaches-poll