MO State GDT

[slosho]

Re: MO State GDT

Well based on Terry's article, I got my answers. And i'm satisfied , well at least at some level.

[jackmd]

Re: MO State GDT

Right on. Stig handed out a replica of this card at the Difference Makers club last year. I have a copy. Its a decision table that saves time just plain and simple. There is no room for arm chair qb's to guess and the card does that for them. And yes I would hope the guys in the press box have a copy of the card. I think our coaching staff is miles ahead of the average arm chair guy such as myself.

The card isn't designed to make any decisions for you. It is designed for use in certain situations. You don't just look at the score, look at the card and then decide. The decision should be made based on pre-test probability and risk:benefit analysis. Anyone who thinks that was the right decision isn't thinking critically enough in my opinion. If Stig is admitting that they made the decision based on the card alone I think we have even more reason to be concerned.

Call me an armchair whatever, going for 2 there is the wrong decision.

[jackdaniel]

Re: MO State GDT

I'm sticking with the above. It's Monday morning. We won a road game. We had some fantastic performances. Some people don't like the play calling and maybe the coaches were just thinking a little out of the box -- after all, isn't that what some have wanted? Congrats to Stig and the team. As JimmyJack noted, we can win the next two!

I really enjoyed the 80-yard Sumner to Moss connection. That'll loosen up some defenses!

In the meantime, I have an idea.....

ha...lol I really appreciate good humor,i've really got to lighten up on this card thing,i'm not taking a cheap shot at coach Stig, i really don't get this card thing....anyway, it was a win for the Jacks,my congradulations to the coaching staff on the win,use whatever helps you guide our team to more wins....tried tarot cards?,tea leaves....j/k

[jacks1]

Re: MO State GDT

...If Stig is admitting that they made the decision based on the card alone I think we have even more reason to be concerned.

If I could rep you a million times...

[SF_Rabbit_Fan]

Re: MO State GDT

If this is the card Stig used, then it makes even less sense to me than i thought.If you have two teams, one with a high % of making the end zone inside the 5 yd line, and one that has a low % of making the end zone inside the 5 yd line,then common sense would tell you the high probability team would go for it, but the low probability team wouldn't.Yes i broke my promise ,but i can't believe people still defend using the card when all teams that use it aren't all equal.It defies any logical explanation to do this....what am i missing here,can anyone tell me?

I think all teams being unequal is part of the reason for using the card.

You are only looking at half the equation-offense. The card was developed by highly educated and intelligent statisticians based on purely statistical data. Not dumb people. Almost all football coaches use them (including high school).

Situation 1
Offense = High % of scoring inside the 5
Defense = High % of stopping inside the 5

Situation 2
Offense = Low % of scoring inside the 5
Defense = Low % of stopping inside the 5

Situation 3
Offense = High % of scoring inside the 5
Defense = Low % of stopping inside the 5

Situation 4
Offense = Low % of scoring inside the 5
Defense = High % of stopping inside the 5

There are almost an infinite number of possibilities to throw in there, like percentages against pass, run, or qb keeper-for both offense and defense. There is no realistic way a coach could determine the best course of action based on probability. The card simplifies the decision making process based on information that is easily available in a 30 second decision making timeframe.

Fans can be critical if they want to, but they are on the wrong side of the argument. First half use is debatable, but the conversion card is pretty much football gospel.

[jackmd]

Re: MO State GDT

Fans can be critical if they want to, but they are on the wrong side of the argument. First half use is debatable, but the conversion card is pretty much football gospel.

I'll keep watching football and you keep watching football. Next time you see a team go for 2 down 14-9 in the first half you call me collect.

[jackrabbit1979]

Re: MO State GDT

I'm not arguing with the use of the card whatsoever, all coaches and teams at all levels use them. The card gives the best probability to either tie or win the game based on the currect score scenario and the success of your conversion. The timing is the issue in my mind. Using it the first half is basically useless because the score is going to change so much more (more TD's, more FG's, possible safety's, missed extra points, missed conversions, etc.) throughout the next 3 quarters of football - giving you different scenarios at the end of the game when the points matter.

I always thought common logic was to take the one point early and then look at the card for conversion advice later in the 2nd half when the chances of additional scoring is slim, but maybe I'm wrong.

[SF_Rabbit_Fan]

Re: MO State GDT

The card isn't designed to make any decisions for you. It is designed for use in certain situations. You don't just look at the score, look at the card and then decide. The decision should be made based on pre-test probability and risk:benefit analysis. Anyone who thinks that was the right decision isn't thinking critically enough in my opinion. If Stig is admitting that they made the decision based on the card alone I think we have even more reason to be concerned.

Call me an armchair whatever, going for 2 there is the wrong decision.

Just to play devil's advocate:

A patient is in the early stages of a relatively simple surgery. Early in the surgery a complication arises, and there are clearly defined, statistically proven procedures for addressing the complication. As a doctor, would you:

1-Go with the proven procedures.
2-Shoot from the hip because there is a lot of surgery to go.

The card is used for a reason. I would much rather have a coaching staff that makes decisions based on reality than one that shoots from the hip based on gut feelings (which have been clinically shown to vary based on a wide number of factors ).

[bigticket1]

Re: MO State GDT

This is nothing new. Coaches use these on every level. Remember the debacle between Brewster and Bielema last year when Bielema went for 2 and Brewster confronted him at midfield? Bielema went for 2 because the card said that was the right thing to do.

I don't agree with the decision; however, he backed it up with his facts and stood by it afterwards. He's the coach so I guess I can't argue too much about it.

Secondly, I don't disagree with trying to score with a minute left in the game. I felt that was reasonable.

The only difference was that Bulimia's team was up by about 42 at that point.

[jackdaniel]

Re: MO State GDT

I think all teams being unequal is part of the reason for using the card.

You are only looking at half the equation-offense. The card was developed by highly educated and intelligent statisticians based on purely statistical data. Not dumb people. Almost all football coaches use them (including high school).

Situation 1
Offense = High % of scoring inside the 5
Defense = High % of stopping inside the 5

Situation 2
Offense = Low % of scoring inside the 5
Defense = Low % of stopping inside the 5

Situation 3
Offense = High % of scoring inside the 5
Defense = Low % of stopping inside the 5

Situation 4
Offense = Low % of scoring inside the 5
Defense = High % of stopping inside the 5

There are almost an infinite number of possibilities to throw in there, like percentages against pass, run, or qb keeper-for both offense and defense. There is no realistic way a coach could determine the best course of action based on probability. The card simplifies the decision making process based on information that is easily available in a 30 second decision making timeframe.

Fans can be critical if they want to, but they are on the wrong side of the argument. First half use is debatable, but the conversion card is pretty much football gospel.

Lets get all the best minds availible to put together cards for all game situations .Hire card readers to read the cards and call the play.Simple ,cheaper than hiring a coach,why take a chance on a human making a bad decision.The highest paid coaches in football are the ones who make the best decisions and ultimately get the most wins for sound decision making.Use artificial guides as that, a guide , but the final decision should be based on far more information than what you can get on a card.The card doesn't know what your team is capable of doing or not.Can't you understand this?

[jackmd]

Re: MO State GDT

Just to play devil's advocate:

A patient is in the early stages of a relatively simple surgery. Early in the surgery a complication arises, and there are clearly defined, statistically proven procedures for addressing the complication. As a doctor, would you:

1-Go with the proven procedures.
2-Shoot from the hip because there is a lot of surgery to go.

The card is used for a reason. I would much rather have a coaching staff that makes decisions based on reality than one that shoots from the hip based on gut feelings (which have been clinically shown to vary based on a wide number of factors ).

Interesting analogy but different situations. The card isn't up for debate, it is definitely a helpful tool when well understood by those who use it. Just like there are many helpful decision making tools in many professions. However, if you use those tools in the wrong setting they can actually be harmful. That is what happened here. If you plug the wrong variables into the equation you get the wrong answer almost every time. The coaches made a mistake and they can choose to own up to it or falsely argue that the card told them to do it.

Now, if they had a chart that factored in the time left in the game, our probability based on history of making a 2 point conversion and an acceptable probability ratio then I've get egg on my face. I will tell you this, I've never seen a 2 point conversion chart that included the first half. Interesting debate but the correct argument is an easy one, going for 2 was the wrong decision.

[jackdaniel]

Re: MO State GDT

re-name this thread the great card debate

[RabbitObsessed]

Re: MO State GDT

Interesting analogy but different situations. The card isn't up for debate, it is definitely a helpful tool when well understood by those who use it. Just like there are many helpful decision making tools in many professions. However, if you use those tools in the wrong setting they can actually be harmful. That is what happened here. If you plug the wrong variables into the equation you get the wrong answer almost every time. The coaches made a mistake and they can choose to own up to it or falsely argue that the card told them to do it.

Now, if they had a chart that factored in the time left in the game, our probability based on history of making a 2 point conversion and an acceptable probability ratio then I've get egg on my face. I will tell you this, I've never seen a 2 point conversion chart that included the first half. Interesting debate but the correct argument is an easy one, going for 2 was the wrong decision.

Here's one that factors time left and doesn't even include the first half, so I think you're right about that. http://www.footballcommentary.com/twoptchart.htm

And even in this one, if you're down 5 with 30 minutes left (start of the second half) you STILL should not go for 2 (I do not believe our 2PT% is greater than 37%) so there is absolutely zero reason to try it in the first half.

[jackmd]

Re: MO State GDT

Here's one that factors time left and doesn't even include the first half, so I think you're right about that. http://www.footballcommentary.com/twoptchart.htm

And even in this one, if you're down 5 with 30 minutes left (start of the second half) you STILL should not go for 2 (I do not believe our 2PT% is greater than 37%) so there is absolutely zero reason to try it in the first half.

I think that must be like the ones I've seen before. The more I think about this the more it makes me wonder and that can be dangerous. I think there is a good chance somebody making major decision for the Jackrabbit football team doesn't know what they are doing. Worse yet, I'm afraid they might be unable to admit and learn from their mistakes. If that is indeed the case.......I gotta stop thinking about this.

I've said it before and I think this decision supports my concern, our coaches seem to be letting the game control them. I see us in a reactionary mode as opposed to an action mode. Think about how conservative the offense and special teams have been and then try to factor in why, what I would perceive to be an aggressive play like a 2-point conversion, would be attempted in the 2nd quarter of a game. There isn't a rational explanation with the exception that our coaches just didn't know what they were doing. They thought they were doing the right thing when they clearly were not. I believe you could cite many more instances when similar poor decisions have been made this year. Mistakes happen, not recognizing them or correcting the errors that lead to those mistakes cannot happen.

[hareball]

Re: MO State GDT

Maybe the publisher of the card sent the 9 man high school football card in error