1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

[RowdyRabbit]

Espn revised their Summit winner from SDSU to NDSU.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask...ege-basketball

NDSU is 12-3, but I'm not buying the kool-aid, just yet.

NDSU's wins have come by beating:

Valley City - D2?
Mayville State - D2
Youngstown State 8-6
Duquesne 7-7
James Madison 7-6
UNO 4-13
Morehead St. (x2) 6-8
UND 4-8
Towson 6-8
SDSU 11-5
USD 6-10

Teams that are a combined 59-71 (.45%) I didn't look up the D2 teams records.

SDSU wins have come against

Tenn. St. 7-7
Marshall 7-7
DC
SMSU
UND 4-8
UNO 4-13
DSU
Cal St. Bak. 6-11
Montana 7-4 (why have they only played 11 games?)
#16 New Mexico 13-2
UMKC 4-11

Teams with a combined record of 52-63 (.45%). Again I didn't look up D2 teams records.

Pretty tough to justify picking NDSU over SDSU at this point, IMO.

[Jacks-02]

Re: 1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

NDSU has the higher RPI and beat SDSU head to head. Why wouldn't they pick the Bison?

[zooropa]

Re: 1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

RPI.

1) NDSU has 2 more D-1 wins than SDSU, for a winning percentage of .769 vs. SDSU's .615 (10/13 vs. 8/13). That constitutes 25% of RPI

2) NDSU's full slate of opponents (+Indiana 13-1, Minnesota 12-1, GB 5-8) W/L:

SDSU's (+Alabama 6-5, Hofstra 2-10, Minnesota 12-1, Belmont 8-4, NDSU 10-3)

So, the opponents' record, which constitutes 50% of RPI is 89-81 for NDSU, 90-86 for SDSU, or .524 for NDSU and .511 for SDSU.

When you weight those properly, you get .546 for SDSU, and .606 for NDSU.

Now that doesn't include the 'opponents' opponents record' portion of the RPI, but this should give you an idea of why NDSU is currently ranked ahead of SDSU by most metrics.

Chiefly, it hinges on NDSU playing Indiana instead of Hofstra, and having two more D-1 wins than SDSU. That's basically the difference in the RPI, and the difference in the head-to-head is pretty tight as well.

--

Someone with no background on the Summit is naturally going to put the Bison in as the Summit's rep. But I'm not sold on them. They haven't won a tournament game since Ben Woodside's last second 3 in 2009, and I'm wondering if they'll have some of the same ups and downs that SDSU had the past couple years in conference play. After all, this is a team that was badly beaten by UWGB, and which is pretty average in most statistical categories.

[RabbitObsessed]

Re: 1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

RPI.

1) NDSU has 2 more D-1 wins than SDSU, for a winning percentage of .769 vs. SDSU's .615 (10/13 vs. 8/13). That constitutes 25% of RPI

2) NDSU's full slate of opponents (+Indiana 13-1, Minnesota 12-1, GB 5-8) W/L:

SDSU's (+Alabama 6-5, Hofstra 2-10, Minnesota 12-1, Belmont 8-4, NDSU 10-3)

So, the opponents' record, which constitutes 50% of RPI is 89-81 for NDSU, 90-86 for SDSU, or .524 for NDSU and .511 for SDSU.

When you weight those properly, you get .546 for SDSU, and .606 for NDSU.

Now that doesn't include the 'opponents' opponents record' portion of the RPI, but this should give you an idea of why NDSU is currently ranked ahead of SDSU by most metrics.

Chiefly, it hinges on NDSU playing Indiana instead of Hofstra, and having two more D-1 wins than SDSU. That's basically the difference in the RPI, and the difference in the head-to-head is pretty tight as well.

--

Someone with no background on the Summit is naturally going to put the Bison in as the Summit's rep. But I'm not sold on them. They haven't won a tournament game since Ben Woodside's last second 3 in 2009, and I'm wondering if they'll have some of the same ups and downs that SDSU had the past couple years in conference play. After all, this is a team that was badly beaten by UWGB, and which is pretty average in most statistical categories.

Good work. I myself looked at their 1-0 record against SDSU which gives them winning percentage of [checks math] 1.000 compared to SDSU's winning percentage of .000 against NDSU.

[BisonBohl]

Re: 1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

RPI.

1) NDSU has 2 more D-1 wins than SDSU, for a winning percentage of .769 vs. SDSU's .615 (10/13 vs. 8/13). That constitutes 25% of RPI

2) NDSU's full slate of opponents (+Indiana 13-1, Minnesota 12-1, GB 5-8) W/L:

SDSU's (+Alabama 6-5, Hofstra 2-10, Minnesota 12-1, Belmont 8-4, NDSU 10-3)

So, the opponents' record, which constitutes 50% of RPI is 89-81 for NDSU, 90-86 for SDSU, or .524 for NDSU and .511 for SDSU.

When you weight those properly, you get .546 for SDSU, and .606 for NDSU.

Now that doesn't include the 'opponents' opponents record' portion of the RPI, but this should give you an idea of why NDSU is currently ranked ahead of SDSU by most metrics.

Chiefly, it hinges on NDSU playing Indiana instead of Hofstra, and having two more D-1 wins than SDSU. That's basically the difference in the RPI, and the difference in the head-to-head is pretty tight as well.

--

Someone with no background on the Summit is naturally going to put the Bison in as the Summit's rep. But I'm not sold on them. They haven't won a tournament game since Ben Woodside's last second 3 in 2009, and I'm wondering if they'll have some of the same ups and downs that SDSU had the past couple years in conference play. After all, this is a team that was badly beaten by UWGB, and which is pretty average in most statistical categories.

That was a very tough game for the Bison, it was the 4th game in six days and it was very tired team. Yes Green Bay isn't a great team and not a loss I would expect during a normal week but it happened. Tough break for us, but we have bounced back. Green Bay is signicantly better then Hofstra though, that is a loss that kills SDSU and the fact that we beat you in the first heads up game.

Way to early to call a favorite to win the league but the Bison are playing the best right now imo...

[zooropa]

Re: 1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

that is a loss that kills SDSU

No, not really.

It's the fact that they played Hofstra, not the loss, in terms of RPI.

Look what happens to opponents' winning percentage when you swap Hofstra and Indiana.

Suddenly, SDSU's opponent winning pct. would be .568, while NDSU's opponent winning percentage would fall to .464.

The presence, not the outcome, of those two games are distorting each team's RPI.

And that's basically the problem with the RPI in a nutshell (and to a certain extent, Pomeroy and Sagarin). SDSU was an 8 point dog at NDSU due to NDSU's opponents' results, but the game was basically a toss-up.

Either team could've won that game (don't believe me? Ask yourself what happens if the Bison are called for a block trailing 56-52, with a chance for a 3 point play).

NDSU may be more consistent than SDSU so far, but SDSU's ceiling is much higher than NDSU's.

[zooropa]

Re: 1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

Good work. I myself looked at their 1-0 record against SDSU which gives them winning percentage of [checks math] 1.000 compared to SDSU's winning percentage of .000 against NDSU.

Pretty sure NDSU"s significantly higher RPI (explained in some detail) would've trumped a narrow win by SDSU. And an SDSU win would not have rocketed them past NDSU in the RPI. Or KenPom. Or Sagarin.

[BisonBohl]

Re: 1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

No, not really.

It's the fact that they played Hofstra, not the loss, in terms of RPI.

Look what happens to opponents' winning percentage when you swap Hofstra and Indiana.

Suddenly, SDSU's opponent winning pct. would be .568, while NDSU's opponent winning percentage would fall to .464.

The presence, not the outcome, of those two games are distorting each team's RPI.

And that's basically the problem with the RPI in a nutshell (and to a certain extent, Pomeroy and Sagarin). SDSU was an 8 point dog at NDSU due to NDSU's opponents' results, but the game was basically a toss-up.

Either team could've won that game (don't believe me? Ask yourself what happens if the Bison are called for a block trailing 56-52, with a chance for a 3 point play).

NDSU may be more consistent than SDSU so far, but SDSU's ceiling is much higher than NDSU's.

Im not really talking about RPI im just talking about flat out losses. Hofstra is not a good basketball team and is a bad loss. RPI is all fine and nice but playing in our league is going to bring that down.

We will just have to agree to disagree on the ceiling for each team.

[zooropa]

Re: 1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

a bad loss

You said that losing to Hofstra 'kills' SDSU. In what sense is this possibly the case? The loss to Hofstra has minimal impact on RPI, compared to the damage done just by *playing* Hofstra. I can assure you that the guy who picked NDSU over SDSU has no idea that SDSU played Hofstra, and even if he did, why would *that* be the deciding factor vs. oh, say, the head-to-head, if he were inclined to go off individual games instead of a statistical survey like RPI/Sagarin/Pom.

I mean here's your basic problem: Just playing Hofstra damages SDSU's RPI.

And here's the problem in the alternative: If a person were inclined to hold SDSU's loss against Hofstra against them, there are other more problematic losses (and wins) on the books.

Either way, it seems difficult to conclude "that is a loss that kills SDSU".

And as far as ceilings go, let me know when the Bison knock off a Top 25 team, okay?

[BisonBohl]

Re: 1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

You said that losing to Hofstra 'kills' SDSU. In what sense is this possibly the case? The loss to Hofstra has minimal impact on RPI, compared to the damage done just by *playing* Hofstra. I can assure you that the guy who picked NDSU over SDSU has no idea that SDSU played Hofstra, and even if he did, why would *that* be the deciding factor vs. oh, say, the head-to-head, if he were inclined to go off individual games instead of a statistical survey like RPI/Sagarin/Pom.

I mean here's your basic problem: Just playing Hofstra damages SDSU's RPI.

And here's the problem in the alternative: If a person were inclined to hold SDSU's loss against Hofstra against them, there are other more problematic losses (and wins) on the books.

Either way, it seems difficult to conclude "that is a loss that kills SDSU".

And as far as ceilings go, let me know when the Bison knock off a Top 25 team, okay?

I get what your saying on the Hofstra. Just playing in the SL is going to hurt both NDSU/SDSU RPI.

New Mexico was a great win for the Jacks and very impressive. Wolters is special player that only comes along every so often and can get you those wins. The reason I like NDSU is we are better defensively, more consistent, and more quality big men. We have a very solid three with LA/Braun/Bjorklund.

Nice little jab at the end on top 25 win, I guess the only thing I can come back with is let me know when you beat NDSU this year, okay?

Going to be fun to see how the Summit plays out, I like what NDSU is doing, but I wouldnt count out Wolters and crew by any means.

[Southeast]

Re: 1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

NDSU has the higher RPI and beat SDSU head to head. Why wouldn't they pick the Bison?

This. Yes, NDSU is now the team to beat (especially to those like ESPN whom are doing a superficial analysis from a distance). I think NDSU knows they will have their hands full with SDSU in Brookings and Sioux Falls though. We nearly got them on their home court.

Yes, SDSU has a higher ceiling, but we also seem to have a lower floor. NDSU appears to be consistently good. We might be getting there but a look at this season's scores shows how you never know exactly which SDSU team is going to show up on a given night (I am talking about Wolter's supporting cast here).

[Nidaros]

Re: 1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

Marshall Bjorklund seems to be the inside ace and teams will need to find ways to stop his 8 in a row shots. Seems he has done this two times in a row. This alone gives NDSU a higer RPI.

[Nidaros]

Re: 1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

This. Yes, NDSU is now the team to beat (especially to those like ESPN whom are doing a superficial analysis from a distance). I think NDSU knows they will have their hands full with SDSU in Brookings and Sioux Falls though. We nearly got them on their home court.

Yes, SDSU has a higher ceiling, but we also seem to have a lower floor. NDSU appears to be consistently good. We might be getting there but a look at this season's scores shows how you never know exactly which SDSU team is going to show up on a given night (I am talking about Wolter's supporting cast here).

Bring back Griff we need him to get things going.

[OldHare]

Re: 1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

This young man moves so well without the ball and he is able to handle the passes when cutting to the basket and therefore the high percentage shot. That is a big that is hard to contain as many teams have discovered. SDSU had the temp answer for Braun, but there was Bjorklund. I would expect to see teams find a way to do some damage control for Mr. Bjorklund.

Marshall Bjorklund seems to be the inside ace and teams will need to find ways to stop his 8 in a row shots. Seems he has done this two times in a row. This alone gives NDSU a higer RPI.

[jackmd]

Re: 1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

Even, SDSU and NDSU. WIU close behind, OU and IPFW in the hunt.