1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

[filbert]

Re: 1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

I see a three-team race right now, Western, NDSU, and SDSU, in no particular order. Ask again at the half-way mark of the conference schedule. It'll probably change.

[Southeast]

Re: 1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

We're going to find out a lot about Oakland in the next week too. They start a road trip that includes Alabama, NDSU, and SDSU. After that is done all of their "big" conference games (WIU, NDSU, SDSU) are at home. They'll probably be a few games back early but may surge late. Those guys have played a brutal schedule: Boise St, PITT, Michigan St, Tennesee, Ohio, Valpo, WVU, Alabama.... Looking at it reminds of the SDSU women's schedule. They will have seen it all.

[goon]

Re: 1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

Marshall Bjorklund seems to be the inside ace and teams will need to find ways to stop his 8 in a row shots. Seems he has done this two times in a row. This alone gives NDSU a higer RPI.

Seems to me he developed better post moves. up and under, turn around etc, moving with out the ball to get into position. Would like to watch him and the Western center Parks go at it.

[zooropa]

Re: 1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

Nice little jab at the end on top 25 win

Although phrased as a jab, it's essentially an argument against your notion that the Bison have a ceiling as high or perhaps higher than the Jacks.

The Bison have a better RPI and have won the first head-to-head, but their best win came against SDSU

[bigticket1]

Re: 1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

Seems to me he developed better post moves. up and under, turn around etc, moving with out the ball to get into position. Would like to watch him and the Western center Parks go at it.

The law of averages will catch up to Bjorklund sooner or later. Hopefully it's in Brookings,and again if the Jacks meet up with him in Sioux Falls.

[SUPERBUNNY]

Re: 1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

Say what you want but the conference championship goes through Brookings (via Sioux Falls).

Nagy started the season by saying that this team needs to stay hungry and humble. They lost to NDSU and are trailing in the conference standings. There should be no more impetus to remain hungry and humble needed.

Time to roll!

SUPERBUNNY

[jack power]

Re: 1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

Say what you want but the conference championship goes through Brookings (via Sioux Falls).

Nagy started the season by saying that this team needs to stay hungry and humble. They lost to NDSU and are trailing in the conference standings. There should be no more impetus to remain hungry and humble needed.

Time to roll!

SUPERBUNNY

Damn right........roll rabbits

[RabbitObsessed]

Re: 1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

Pretty sure NDSU"s significantly higher RPI (explained in some detail) would've trumped a narrow win by SDSU. And an SDSU win would not have rocketed them past NDSU in the RPI. Or KenPom. Or Sagarin.

No, but if we would have beat NDSU at NDSU, I think it would have been hard to argue that we would be considered SL favorites.

[goon]

Re: 1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

Damn right........roll rabbits

Roll rabbits.

[zooropa]

Re: 1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

No, but if we would have beat NDSU at NDSU, I think it would have been hard to argue that we would be considered SL favorites.

Assuming you meant 'wouldn't be', and given that there would still be a sizable gap in RPI had the Jacks beat NDSU (the only thing that would've changed would be the 25% weight assigned to individual W/L, and that wouldn't have moved much), I think the average guy looking at conference standings rated by RPI (or whatever) would've still seen a significant gap, and would've still picked NDSU.

[OldHare]

Re: 1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

I am looking forward to the first rematch on Jan 26 at Frost. I am guessing that the RPI and the kenpom and a few other statistical analysis will favor the bison. However, I am expecting a healthy Jackrabbit team ready to play the game and I will be there with my blinders on anticipating a Jack win. Meanwhile, there are a few games for each team to play against some other teams that have a dismal RPI having intent to "upset" the bison or Jacks. The Jacks lost a few road games in conference last year and it would not surprise me to lose another on the way this year. The loss to the bison was not a crippling or season ending event regardless of the aftertaste of the game. Last year the ORU eagles flew high and mighty into the tournament with a single loss and I do not recall them in the final game. I am hoping that I will see a steady improvement in this Jackrabbit team during the conference schedule. I may be surprised and there will be no more conference losses for the Jacks, but I do not think I am ready for the Summit outcome to be the forecast daily by the RPI standings. I am hoping that we are still undefeated at home Jan 27. Go Jacks!

[RabbitObsessed]

Re: 1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

Assuming you meant 'wouldn't be', and given that there would still be a sizable gap in RPI had the Jacks beat NDSU (the only thing that would've changed would be the 25% weight assigned to individual W/L, and that wouldn't have moved much), I think the average guy looking at conference standings rated by RPI (or whatever) would've still seen a significant gap, and would've still picked NDSU.

I did mean wouldn't be, my bad.

And I think you are plain wrong. "Hmm, let's look at conference standings by RPI and ignore that Team X beat Team Y at Team Y's home gym. Well, I have more confidence in RPI than an actual basketball game, because as an average guy, I know the point of basketball isn't to beat a team, but to have a higher RPI," said average guy.

Okay.

[Jacks#1Fan]

Re: 1-3-13 - Is NDSU the Summit team to beat?

I did mean wouldn't be, my bad.

And I think you are plain wrong. "Hmm, let's look at conference standings by RPI and ignore that Team X beat Team Y at Team Y's home gym. Well, I have more confidence in RPI than an actual basketball game, because as an average guy, I know the point of basketball isn't to beat a team, but to have a higher RPI," said average guy. Okay.

Except, you give no rational look in your summary as to where the game was played. Sagarin assigns a 4.5 point advantage to the home team, i.e. the Jacks won the matchup by 1.5 in that loss (theoretically of course). Anyway, RPI, Sagarin, KenPom, etc. are statistical predictors that might balance out in the long run, but have little significance for any particular game. And that is, indeed, why we play the games. We will await the Bison's performance in Frost before any more comparisons need to be discussed IMO.