Let's play "what if" (MWC/Pac-2/FBS)

[filbert]

It seems to me that any SDSU move to FBS would require at least $5M and more likely $10M or more added to SDSU's annual athletic budget, which is just under $27M right now.

(https://knightnewhousedata.org/fcs/s...ate-university)

It is unlikely that $10M will be forthcoming from any possible TV rights deal. If the MWC gets desperate enough to actually invite SDSU, where would the money to be competitive at the FBS level come from? I realize that this is basically the same question as we had during the discussions of D-II to D-I, with just the dollar amounts changed. If we get the invite, will we be able to afford it?

[filbert]

And actually, the annual athletic budget would more likely be $50M or more--that's the neighborhood Wyoming and Utah State are now.

[jakejc795]

It seems to me that any SDSU move to FBS would require at least $5M and more likely $10M or more added to SDSU's annual athletic budget, which is just under $27M right now.

(https://knightnewhousedata.org/fcs/s...ate-university)

It is unlikely that $10M will be forthcoming from any possible TV rights deal. If the MWC gets desperate enough to actually invite SDSU, where would the money to be competitive at the FBS level come from? I realize that this is basically the same question as we had during the discussions of D-II to D-I, with just the dollar amounts changed. If we get the invite, will we be able to afford it?

$10M seems optimistic, given some estimates (prior to the most recent exodus) and let's not forget the $5M FBS application fee.

[jakejc795]

And actually, the annual athletic budget would more likely be $50M or more--that's the neighborhood Wyoming and Utah State are now.

I'd be curious about the MWC's stance on baseball and softball (and how SDSU would approach equestrian).

Wyoming offers 17 sports, sans baseball and softball, and the conference is losing teams that offered both. Wouldn't it be something if the fact SDSU and NDSU would allow them to help replenish depleted baseball/softball conference schedules (and potentially leverage Summit connections) would be factor tilting ledger in Jacks' favor

[bigticket1]

It seems like inviting FCS schools to move up might be low on their priority list of potential members. Saw a report last night that they have asked the MAC for permission to talk with Toledo and NIU.

[GrandpaLee]

From ESPN: (on 9/26/24)
With six full-time members and one partial member in Hawai'i, the Mountain West still needs to add two full-time football-playing schools to meet the NCAA minimum requirement but would have until the start of the 2028 to do so. The Pac-12 stands at seven members and will need an additional school by the 2026 season.

Opportunities are evolving. MWC will have $$'s from their dearly departed to entice new members. With the revenue sharing from TV, do those monies entice SDSU, or NDSU, or the Montana schools? A slice of the football play-off could be in play as well?

AD Justin Sell once cautioned to not move too quickly; lest a mistake be made. Is the launch countdown ticking ...

[jackdaniel]

Seems like they keep robbing from each other, this can go on forever, why not just get more teams in the pool (fcs) and there will be no need to keep robbing from each other right? Too many after too few ? Maybe they all want "the other guy" to have to do it, not them. Oh well, it's all quite entertaining to see how this all unfolds.

[MontanaRabbit]

Joining the MWC as a FB only member is an option. I don't think becoming a full member is really feasible. The travel costs for all our sports teams would likely be too much.

[jakejc795]

Joining the MWC as a FB only member is an option. I don't think becoming a full member is really feasible. The travel costs for all our sports teams would likely be too much.

That would alleviate concerns about losing the Summit Tourney too

[West-River_Jack]

"What if?" I'll play. What if we got into the MWC and the world goes all topsy turvy on us and our membership becomes a disaster for whatever strange situation might occur; too much travel expense, inability to be competitive, later additions of teams in Alaska, Florida, New England, wherever, a mandatory sports mix that doesn't work for us, whatever dumb@$$ reason you can dream up? Could we afford to buy our way out?

[filbert]

"What if?" I'll play. What if we got into the MWC and the world goes all topsy turvy on us and our membership becomes a disaster for whatever strange situation might occur; too much travel expense, inability to be competitive, later additions of teams in Alaska, Florida, New England, wherever, a mandatory sports mix that doesn't work for us, whatever dumb@$$ reason you can dream up? Could we afford to buy our way out?

I am ambivalent about which way SDSU should go, if we're ever given the choice, for exactly the reasons you list. I am not sure that the risk-reward equation is favorable. Waiting and seeing how things shake out has great appeal as of now. But considering the what-ifs (and perhaps the how-tos) is still in order

[JackJD]

Will there be a race between: A) Running out of fans; and B) running out of money? I'm thinking: there's a high likelihood of a tie.

[filbert]

Will there be a race between: A) Running out of fans; and B) running out of money? I'm thinking: there's a high likelihood of a tie.

My feeling is that if an MWC invite came our way, the SDSU community would somehow come up with the money.

And, leaving USD "behind" in FCS while going to FBS is ***probably*** going to increase the separation between the sizes of the fan bases. That's a pretty complicated calculus, however, as if, say, SDSU goes and has a few 2-9, 3-8, or even 6-5 FBS seasons while USD (with SDSU and presumably also NDSU now out of the way in FBS) wins an FCS natty or two, that will tend to equalize things...and make A) running out of fans considerably more likely (which translates directly into your B point as well). I'm also concerned that SDSU wouldn't necessarily get the same quality of athlete as just another lower-tier FBS team versus being a national championship contender FCS team. And then there's the issue of playing away--or worse, home games that start at 8 or 9 or 10 pm central time in the MWC.

These things are what make me ambivalent towards any move to FBS. I think all told, I'm very, very lukewarmly on the "well, if we're invited to the MWC (or in the more unlikely event the Pac-12) we kinda have to go" side of things, but it's not without a LOT of trepidation and an awareness that the downside potential is real and significant.

[ringthebells]

What are people's feelings about the MAC?

[discoDancinRabbit]

What are people's feelings about the MAC?

Positive vibes. For starters the budget is in the ballpark and actually larger than niu.