Why USD CAN go DI.

[jackmd]

Re: Why USD CAN go DI.

Chances are the BS won't, but to say that they never will is premature.  If they ever do think about us, it won't be for many, many years, once USD becomes established.  And I don't mean 5 or 6 years either.

Point appreciated. The gest is, correct me if I'm wrong, conference affiliation is no guarantee and that expectation should not be what the move to DI hinges on.

Why is guarantee so damn hard for me to spell? Anyone else have that problem?

[MilwaukeeJacksAlum]

Re: Why USD CAN go DI.

Here's the thing I think USD may not really want to think about when contemplating a move to D1. Alot of supporters, whether they admit it or not, look to SDSU and the possibility of playing in the big dance, the recognition SDSU is getting, etc. and think they want a piece of that. Especially now that UND has decided to (possibly) join the fray, the drive to make USD is largely a fear of being left behind and drifting into obscurity in the area sports landscape.

The problem with that thinking is that maybe making a hasty move to D1 would result in even more obscurity and problems than had they stayed D2. Think about it. Whether SDSU fans want to admit it or not, we got lucky with the invite to the Mid-Con. One of those right place at the right time sort of deal. The conference we were banking on for admission (big sky) looked at us and threw us back 3 times. Had Valpo not decided to move and had Chicago U not broken recruiting rules, we'd more than likely still be on the outside looking in for the Mid Con. Next thing you know, we're 6 years into our move to D1 and we're begging schools to do a 2 for 1 deal on basketball games just to fill the schedule. The NCAA tourney is still a pipe dream. Talk about obscurity, we would have defined it. A small school from South Dakota with no conference.

Well, USD is an even smaller school and there is already a D1 school in the state. USD's situation is much worse than ours was when we made the move. I guess that's where I'm coming from when I say I think USD has no choice but to stay DII. For the first time in years, USD is sitting on top of the mountain for football recognition in the state. They are a perenial power in DII and without any hiccups should make the playoffs this year. With the watered down NCC, they should always be in the hunt for the NCC title in basketball which means playoffs which means greater opportunities to make the DII tourney. Their budget cannot realistically sustain a move to D1 and the school probably can't either. That's not a knock on the school, just the facts. Dakota State couldn't cut it in the NCC, either. That's just the way it is.

[jackmd]

Re: Why USD CAN go DI.

Here's the thing I think USD may not really want to think about when contemplating a move to D1.  Alot of supporters, whether they admit it or not, look to SDSU and the possibility of playing in the big dance, the recognition SDSU is getting, etc. and think they want a piece of that.  Especially now that UND has decided to (possibly) join the fray, the drive to make USD is largely a fear of being left behind and drifting into obscurity in the area sports landscape.  

The problem with that thinking is that maybe making a hasty move to D1 would result in even more obscurity and problems than had they stayed D2.  Think about it.  Whether SDSU fans want to admit it or not, we got lucky with the invite to the Mid-Con.  One of those right place at the right time sort of deal.  The conference we were banking on for admission (big sky) looked at us and threw us back 3 times.  Had Valpo not decided to move and had Chicago U not broken recruiting rules, we'd more than likely still be on the outside looking in for the Mid Con.  Next thing you know, we're 6 years into our move to D1 and we're begging schools to do a 2 for 1 deal on basketball games just to fill the schedule.  The NCAA tourney is still a pipe dream.  Talk about obscurity, we would have defined it.  A small school from South Dakota with no conference.  

Well, USD is an even smaller school and there is already a D1 school in the state.  USD's situation is much worse than ours was when we made the move.  I guess that's where I'm coming from when I say I think USD has no choice but to stay DII.  For the first time in years, USD is sitting on top of the mountain for football recognition in the state.  They are a perenial power in DII and without any hiccups should make the playoffs this year.  With the watered down NCC, they should always be in the hunt for the NCC title in basketball which means playoffs which means greater opportunities to make the DII tourney.  Their budget cannot realistically sustain a move to D1 and the school probably can't either.  That's not a knock on the school, just the facts.  Dakota State couldn't cut it in the NCC, either.  That's just the way it is.  

Exactly, thats why I hope the USD brass has the courage to look at this logically and checks their emotions at the door when making this decision. USD athletics is in a place it hasn't been in decades, at the top of their division in the state of SD. They are getting great DII caliber athletes and will dominate the region in the DII sports they are able to sustain. A move to DI will be fraught with uncertainty, funding shortfalls, compromise, and quite possibly ultimate failure. Seems like quite a leap of faith to me.

[NightHawk78]

Re: Why USD CAN go DI.

When UNC, NDSU, and SDSU looked at D-1, they all saw the future of D-2 as being more geared towards smaller schhols and felt that it was in the best interest of their own institution to go D-1. Despite a option to jump to D-1 as a conference (in order to guarantee scheduling, conference affliation, and the option to place rules to allow for all schools to transition), most NCC schools chose not to take that option. USD, in particular, was quite content with D-2 and the "new" NCC.

Fast forward three years:
1) SDSU's version of D-2's future is coming to fruition as more small schools join D-2, placing pressure to a) reduce the FB schollie limit of 36 or b) split D-2 into two football divisions.
2) UND, as rumored for years, intends to jump up to D-1, leaving USD as the last of the Dakota "flagships" in D-2.
3) The NCC continues to wilt away as UNO and the MN schools all explore other conference options. Augie has placed D-1 (and other options) on the table.

If the NCC was still a top-notch D-2 conference with eight to ten schools that were committed to full funding for football and basketball, it would be easy for USD to justify staying in D-2. However, the decline of the NCC and no solid options D-2 options in the vicinity of USD have placed Pres. Abbott and company in a bind.

I think they will go D-1, but the boldest move for USD would actually be a move to D-3 as they could shed themselves of the "burden" of funding athletic scholarships and sell this move to the general public by stating that USD's mission is to educate SD's "best and brightest" and to develop "the future leaders of SD." Instead of trying to raise money for athletic scholarships, USD could make the push for scholarship money for all USD students. IMHO, I think staying in D-2 is the worst decision that USD could make.

[1stRowFANatic]

Re: Why USD CAN go DI.

I have stated my opinion on several occasions (USD should not move because finanically they can't make it), but just wanted to add to MJA's assessment. I agree with him, and would also add to the list the fact that facilities are a major problem for USD.

Oh, and JackMD, you are not the only one with problems spelling that word.

[el_presidente]

Re: Why USD CAN go DI.

From the Volante online about their student union not being worked on http://www.volanteonline.com/media/s...anteonline.com


"One of the things Evans Taylor likes about the project is that they are trying to recycle as much of the material as possible. For example, wood and carpet have been donated around campus."

They want to go DI and they are recycling wood and carpet from a building they are tearing down to remodel other areas.

[Haldersham]

Re: Why USD CAN go DI.

There is a banker in Sioux Falls associated with Premier Bank, I dont know his full name, but last name is Sanford. Last year before December 31, he made a huge donation to Sioux Valley-USD medical center for tweenty million. I understand one of the reasons was there was a loop hole in the Katrina legislation that allowed him a sweet tax deal if he made the donation on or before Dec 31, 2005. Sanford was probably one of many who took advantage of this congressional screw-up. Or was it a screw up? Who knows!!

Last week Sanford gave USD 6 million for the new business building and its going to be named after one of his faithful employees who happened to be a USD grad.

Could another large donation for athletics at USD follow?

Also SDSU has a high profile Foundation board member working for Premier. I am wondering if Mr. Sanford will send some of his money our way. He seems to have a bottomless pocket of money.

Anyone know or heard about this guy? I do remember he pledged several millions to his alma mater U of Minnesota and later retracted the pledge since he did not get his name on the staduim. Names seem to be very important to Mr. Sanford.

[Jacks99]

Re: Why USD CAN go DI.

Sanford likes giving his money to programs that work with Children. He just gave a ton more to the Children's Home Society? Also not sure if it was a seperate donation, but the new Children's hospital at SV is named after him.

I don't see him giving to athletics.

I think the Katrina loophole allowed larger donations to be tax deductible. Currently you can only deduct to a certain percentage of your income, but I think the rules were suspended to get more gift money for Katrina and other groups that lost money due to it.

It could be that there are some deep pockets lining up help the U after SDSU has taken the center stage.

[jackmd]

Re: Why USD CAN go DI.

T Denny Sanford, now the namesake of our states medical school. I'll be quite so as not to get in any trouble.

I'll just say that I appreciate his philanthropy. He gave some money to Mayo's children's hospital while I was there. Again, appreciate his generosity.

I don't think he has any intention to assist with athletics. I don't know for sure.

[Rabbitlivinginverm]

Re: Why USD CAN go DI.

He also gave about 20 million to the Homestake Lab project in Lead earlier this summer.

[filbert]

Re: Why USD CAN go DI.

Here's the list of public universities with the same Carnegie classification as SDSU: RU/H (Research university-high research intensity):
Auburn University Main Campus
Bowling Green State University-Main Campus
Clemson University
College of William and Mary
Colorado School of Mines
CUNY Graduate School and University Center
Florida Atlantic University-Boca Raton
Florida International University
George Mason University
Georgia State University
Indiana University-Purdue University-Indianapolis
Jackson State University
Kent State University-Main Campus
Miami University-Oxford
Michigan Technological University
Mississippi State University
New Jersey Institute of Technology
New Mexico State University-Main Campus
North Carolina A & T State University
North Dakota State University-Main Campus
Northern Arizona University
Northern Illinois University
Ohio University-Main Campus
Oklahoma State University-Main Campus
Old Dominion University
Rutgers University-Newark
San Diego State University
South Dakota State University
Southern Illinois University Carbondale
SUNY at Binghamton
SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry
Temple University
Texas Tech University
University of Akron Main Campus
University of Alabama, The
University of Alabama in Huntsville
University of Alaska Fairbanks
University of Arkansas Main Campus
University of Central Florida
University of Houston-University Park
University of Idaho
University of Louisiana at Lafayette
University of Louisville
University of Maine
University of Maryland-Baltimore County
University of Memphis
University of Mississippi Main Campus
University of Missouri-Kansas City
University of Missouri-Rolla
University of Missouri-St. Louis
University of Montana-Missoula, The
University of Nevada-Las Vegas
University of Nevada-Reno
University of New Hampshire-Main Campus
University of New Orleans
University of North Carolina at Greensboro
University of North Dakota-Main Campus
University of North Texas
University of Oklahoma Norman Campus
University of Oregon
University of Puerto Rico-Rio Piedras Campus
University of Rhode Island
University of Southern Mississippi
University of Texas at Arlington, The
University of Texas at Dallas, The
University of Texas at El Paso, The
University of Toledo
University of Vermont and State Agricultural Coll
University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
University of Wyoming
Utah State University
Virginia Commonwealth University
West Virginia University
Western Michigan University
Wichita State University
Wright State University-Main Campus


Here's the list of public universities matching USD's Carnegie classification: DRU (Doctoral/research universities)
Ball State University
Central Michigan University
Cleveland State University
East Carolina University
East Tennessee State University
Florida Agricultural and Mechanical University
Georgia Southern University
Idaho State University
Illinois State University
Indiana State University
Indiana University of Pennsylvania-Main Campus
Louisiana Tech University
Morgan State University
Oakland University
Portland State University
South Carolina State University
Tennessee State University
Texas A & M University-Commerce
Texas A & M University-Kingsville
Texas Woman's University
University of Arkansas at Little Rock
University of Massachusetts-Boston
University of Massachusetts-Lowell
University of North Carolina at Charlotte
University of Northern Colorado
University of South Dakota
University of West Florida, The


Just to give some kind of athletic rating, I gave each school a numeric score for its athletic program:
10 = Division I-A
14 = Division I-AA
18 = Division I-AAA
20 = Division II
30 = Division III
40 = no athletics program

The RU/H universities average out at 14.1, almost exactly the I-AA rating.
39 of SDSU's 76 peers (51%) are I-A institutions.
14 (18.4%) are I-AA.
12 (15.7%) are I-AAA.
8 (10.5%)are D-II.
One (1.3%) is D-III, and two (2.6%)don't have athletics (although one of those is associated with I-A Syracuse for athletics purposes).


The DRU universities average out to 16.3, closest to the non-basketball I-AAA classification by 0.3.
4 of USD's 27 peers, 14.8%, play I-A athletics.
10 (37%) are 1-AA.
5 (18.5%) are I-AAA.
7 (25.9%) are D-II.
One (3.7%) is D-III.


You can conclude from this two things:

From a peer-institution point of view, USD probably should be I-AA. But, from the same point of view, SDSU should probably be I-A.

Analysis continued in my next post . . .

[filbert]

Re: Why USD CAN go DI.

So, moving on from peer institutions to a high-level evaluation of market size:

The NCAA lists 326 Division 1 universities, of which 117 play I-A football and 118 play I-AA (as of September 1, 2005).

The Census bureau lists the 2005 U.S. population at 296,410,404. Since state lines aren't necessarily reflective of market size, I like to group the five Upper Midwest states of South Dakota, North Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, and Nebraska into a single region. This area had a 2005 population of 11,270,530, with South Dakota at 775,933.

With 326 D-I universities, each one is hypothetically supported by 909,234 people. In the five-state area, dividing the population by 909,234 gives a total market size of 12.4 D-I universities that are supportable in the Upper Midwest.

Nine universities currently are D-I or are reclassifying to D-I:
Minnesota
Nebraska
Iowa
Iowa State
Northern Iowa
North Dakota State
South Dakota State
Creighton
Drake

So, from this analysis, there is room for three, maybe four additional D-I universities in the Upper Midwest.

Now, looking only at football, there are 235 D-I football programs in the U.S, for an average market size of 1,261,321. In the Upper Midwest, there is room for 8.9 D-I football programs.

Seven football-playing universites are D-I in the Upper Midwest:
Minnesota
Nebraska
Iowa
Iowa State
Northern Iowa
North Dakota State
South Dakota State

With North Dakota moving up, this high-level market analysis says that there might be room for one more, but that’s it.

The peer-group analysis and the high-level market analysis do appear to support the long-term viability of a USD move to D-I, in my opinion.

As to whether they’re ready to move up, I don’t know.

[Rabbitlivinginverm]

Re: Why USD CAN go DI.

Filbert is wicked smart.

[1stRowFANatic]

Re: Why USD CAN go DI.

Filbert has a much better grasp on statistics than I, but think I see on flaw in the numbers. The vast majority of the population in the 5-state region is on the eastern edge of MN & IA, with population density steadily declining as you move further into the other states. While borders do not absolutely limit support, they do influence where people will go to school and that determines the number of alumni. I know the MN has reciprocity with SD, but when I left USD 5 years ago, IA did not, however I believe there is now a lower tuition rate for IA residents, if not full reciprocity. In short, I have to give Filbert a great deal of credit for the research, but IMHO, the general population numbers are not vaild basis for determining potential support.

[CatchEmAll]

Re: Why USD CAN go DI.

Can we move this to the meaningless statistics board