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For those of you who haven't heard, the NCAA has made the decision that they will not count this coming season against the eligibility of any competitor. in winter sports. In addition, seniors who would exhaust their eligibility this coming season will have the option of remaining on scholarship for their additional year without it counting against the 9.9 scholarship maximum. I'm trying to piece together just how this will effect the Jackrabbits this coming season and for years to come. I'm hoping that piecing together this post will force me to do the brainwork of wrapping my head around this and that, by the time I have completed it, I will have a good understanding of just how this is going to play out for the Jacks. I'm also hoping that some of you will fill in some of the errors that I make. So, let's begin.
2020 / 2021 Team
For most teams, a interesting possibility has been presented in that there is literally no benefit to redshirting athletes, meaning that they will have complete access to their entire line-up right away. Across the conference we will see stud freshman starting for West Virginia, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State without a doubt and likely some others. I think that we are unlikely to see any true freshman in the line-up for SDSU because I don't think they have any freshman who would be favored to win a spot. One area where this could have an effect would be with Joey Thompson who was set to take a gray-shirt this year. I don't believe there would be any reason for him to continue to stay out of school and, in the spring, he could enroll at SDSU and be eligible to compete if there is the scholarship space. This won't actually matter much because there will almost certainly be no tournaments to compete in. I suspect that the median number of matches wrestled by a SDSU freshman will be 0 this year unless they are competing in freestyle for the JWC. It's going to be a frustrating year to be a starter having only a dozen or so matches, but if is gong to be almost entirely fruitless to be a non-starter this year. I'm not actually sure if there would be a reason to have extensive conditioning this year in practice for the non-starters. It might just be a year in the lab play wrestling and working on technique in the Russian mold.
(There is no change in this line-up from what I otherwise would have projected)
2021 / 2022 Team
This year will be interesting for the Jacks in that they will be welcoming a very strong freshman class but they won't necessarily be saying goodbye to the previous year seniors (Wolters, Carlson, Vega, and Marko). This is interesting because it will almost certainly put us a little over 9.9 scholarships but it will not make the team significantly better. If the school is able to fund the extra scholarships, this does not pose a problem but all four of these super-seniors will find themselves in battles just to remain in the starting line-up. It might be the case that the staff has to make some hard choices here. Maybe some of them transfer out or go without aid, maybe they make some cuts elsewhere or maybe the seniors choose to graduate and it isn't a problem at all. In terms of competitiveness, SDSU could find themselves at a disadvantage here. While other teams will return stud super-seniors and second-year true freshman with a year of starting experience, the Jacks will benefit only marginally from the former and likely not at all from the later. There is going to be a large group of teams that are much better than they would otherwise be. For example, Iowa will have five super-senior title contenders that they can use, they could field the best team of all time if the chips fall right for them. The scene will also change in that there are going to be an enormous number of senior transfers in the portal that teams couldn't afford to keep around and teams are going to be snatching up a lot of new pieces. There will be a huge opportunity to recreate your line-up. SDSU will have just brought in a pretty substantial recruiting class and many not be in a position to take advantage of that. One advantage that they will have is that they are in a good place financially and in good standing with the school so, while many programs are at risk of being cut or having their funding reduced, I think SDSU will get through this clean.
(I have Vega and Carlson sticking around and starting, I don't think Marko beats out Smith in any circumstance and I don't see Wolters wanting to pay for another year of school that he won't use just to wrestle)
2022 / 2023 Team
This is where SDSU may have an advantage. While other teams will find themselves unable to recruit much knowing the the class of 2022 is now the second class of 2023, (thanks to Bono) we have very little money tied up in this class. This means that the Jacks may be able to bring in what some good wrestlers for less scholarship money than they otherwise would have. This class is in a bad place and will receive less scholarship money across the board, in addition many programs will have been negatively impacted by COVID and lost some of their funding. Their loss could work to the advantage of school like SDSU
(This line-up didn't change at all from what I otherwise would have projected)
There are a lot of schools that stand to gain much from this set of circumstance (Iowa, Michigan, Penn State, etc. . .) as they are able to keep their wrestlers for another year and wrestle true freshman right out of the gate. There are also teams that stand to lose quite a bit as money gets scarce (Fresno State just announce the loss of their program and I have to imagine that many school are losing some portion of their funding). SDSU is in a unique position in that they don't change much at on in terms of the product that they're going to be putting out on the mat or, hopefully, their funding. I made only two adjustments in my projected line-ups for these three years. In summery, the rich get richer, the poor get poorer, and the Jackrabbits, well, they'll be fine.
2020 / 2021 Team
For most teams, a interesting possibility has been presented in that there is literally no benefit to redshirting athletes, meaning that they will have complete access to their entire line-up right away. Across the conference we will see stud freshman starting for West Virginia, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State without a doubt and likely some others. I think that we are unlikely to see any true freshman in the line-up for SDSU because I don't think they have any freshman who would be favored to win a spot. One area where this could have an effect would be with Joey Thompson who was set to take a gray-shirt this year. I don't believe there would be any reason for him to continue to stay out of school and, in the spring, he could enroll at SDSU and be eligible to compete if there is the scholarship space. This won't actually matter much because there will almost certainly be no tournaments to compete in. I suspect that the median number of matches wrestled by a SDSU freshman will be 0 this year unless they are competing in freestyle for the JWC. It's going to be a frustrating year to be a starter having only a dozen or so matches, but if is gong to be almost entirely fruitless to be a non-starter this year. I'm not actually sure if there would be a reason to have extensive conditioning this year in practice for the non-starters. It might just be a year in the lab play wrestling and working on technique in the Russian mold.
| 2020-2021 | |
| 125 | VEGA |
| 133 | PRICE |
| 141 | CARLSON |
| 149 | SMITH |
| 157 | DEVOS |
| 165 | COOK |
| 174 | CARLSON |
| 184 | SCHOON |
| 197 | SLOAN |
| 285 | WOLTERS |
2021 / 2022 Team
This year will be interesting for the Jacks in that they will be welcoming a very strong freshman class but they won't necessarily be saying goodbye to the previous year seniors (Wolters, Carlson, Vega, and Marko). This is interesting because it will almost certainly put us a little over 9.9 scholarships but it will not make the team significantly better. If the school is able to fund the extra scholarships, this does not pose a problem but all four of these super-seniors will find themselves in battles just to remain in the starting line-up. It might be the case that the staff has to make some hard choices here. Maybe some of them transfer out or go without aid, maybe they make some cuts elsewhere or maybe the seniors choose to graduate and it isn't a problem at all. In terms of competitiveness, SDSU could find themselves at a disadvantage here. While other teams will return stud super-seniors and second-year true freshman with a year of starting experience, the Jacks will benefit only marginally from the former and likely not at all from the later. There is going to be a large group of teams that are much better than they would otherwise be. For example, Iowa will have five super-senior title contenders that they can use, they could field the best team of all time if the chips fall right for them. The scene will also change in that there are going to be an enormous number of senior transfers in the portal that teams couldn't afford to keep around and teams are going to be snatching up a lot of new pieces. There will be a huge opportunity to recreate your line-up. SDSU will have just brought in a pretty substantial recruiting class and many not be in a position to take advantage of that. One advantage that they will have is that they are in a good place financially and in good standing with the school so, while many programs are at risk of being cut or having their funding reduced, I think SDSU will get through this clean.
| 2021-2022 | |
| 125 | VEGA |
| 133 | PRICE |
| 141 | CARLSON |
| 149 | SMITH |
| 157 | DEVOS |
| 165 | COOK |
| 174 | CARLSON |
| 184 | SCHOON |
| 197 | SLOAN |
| 285 | TRENARY |
2022 / 2023 Team
This is where SDSU may have an advantage. While other teams will find themselves unable to recruit much knowing the the class of 2022 is now the second class of 2023, (thanks to Bono) we have very little money tied up in this class. This means that the Jacks may be able to bring in what some good wrestlers for less scholarship money than they otherwise would have. This class is in a bad place and will receive less scholarship money across the board, in addition many programs will have been negatively impacted by COVID and lost some of their funding. Their loss could work to the advantage of school like SDSU
| 2022-2023 | |
| 125 | THOMPSON |
| 133 | PRICE |
| 141 | CARLSON |
| 149 | CARDINAL |
| 157 | DEVOS |
| 165 | COOK |
| 174 | KING |
| 184 | ROGOTZKE |
| 197 | SLOAN |
| 285 | TRENARY |
There are a lot of schools that stand to gain much from this set of circumstance (Iowa, Michigan, Penn State, etc. . .) as they are able to keep their wrestlers for another year and wrestle true freshman right out of the gate. There are also teams that stand to lose quite a bit as money gets scarce (Fresno State just announce the loss of their program and I have to imagine that many school are losing some portion of their funding). SDSU is in a unique position in that they don't change much at on in terms of the product that they're going to be putting out on the mat or, hopefully, their funding. I made only two adjustments in my projected line-ups for these three years. In summery, the rich get richer, the poor get poorer, and the Jackrabbits, well, they'll be fine.
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