Bracketology (2017-2018)

[Justwin]

Re: Bracketology (2017-2018)

Will be interesting to see where SDSU would end up if they win out. Their "worst" loss right now is to the #3 team in the Big 10 (Creighton) by 7 on the road. The other 4 losses are against teams currently in 1st place in their conferences.

That hypothetical starts at 7pm tonight

I'm not sure that is our worst loss?

[jackdaniel]

Re: Bracketology (2017-2018)

Here's what each loss looks like to me,

1) Green Bay- just shot horrible,lost by 14 , FG- 23%, 3 pt FG- 15%,Macy 2-5 ,Palmer 1-2,everyone else 0-13 on three's, tough road environment against a really good, now ranked opponent ,14 TO's not good but not horrible either considering how well they contest every pass and pressure the whole game, steals ,5....same explanation.....not too bad of a loss

2) Louisville at home -This game made people realize how good this team can be...so. if there's such a thing as a "good loss",this is it, to a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament.

3)Creighton on the road - This game was much closer than the UWGB ,which I think are both comparable to one another, maybe GB slightly better, not a whole lot though. Lost by 7,not our worst loss in my opinion, that's coming up.

4)Florida Gulf Coast, on the road - Ranked high in the mid-major poll, somewhat of a peer of sorts, lost by 12,but the game was highly contested throughout,until the very end.We made more FG's on less attempts ,had a higher shooting percentage because of that, this game was soley decided at the FT line, so I can't really fault them for trying to play tough defense. FGCU shot 80% ,16-20 from the FT line,we shot 100%, but just 4-4 for the game. Also not our worst loss, IMHO

5)USD at home - This is our worst loss of the season, in my opinion. First off, it was at home against our biggest contender to win the conference title , our only home loss to anyone not named Louisville. We played pretty comparable in the shooting stats, rebounding, etc. The game was lost, as many have expressed ,in that they just showed they wanted it more and they took it. Look at two stats that require a lot of hustle and desire, steals and forcing your opponent into to's , they beat us by 6 in each one of those stats. This put us in a bind to have to win at their place, we gave it a pretty good shot, but by then they could see we were their last obstacle again and they had great home court fan support to pull out another win. We didn't have to follow this scenario if we would of won at home.This sets the stage for our loss on the road to them. If we'd of won this, like we should have ,we'd have a one loss conference record instead of two losses, or maybe even no losses, who knows if a win might have changed things in Vermillion.

6) This loss was set up by our first loss to them at Frost.It's much more understandable to lose to a really good team at their house, and wouldn't have hurt us so much if we'd of took care of business and beat them earlier at Frost. So,my pick for the worst loss of the season would be losing to USD at Frost, for the reasons I've laid out.

[Justwin]

Re: Bracketology (2017-2018)

Here's what each loss looks like to me,

1) Green Bay- just shot horrible,lost by 14 , FG- 23%, 3 pt FG- 15%,Macy 2-5 ,Palmer 1-2,everyone else 0-13 on three's, tough road environment against a really good, now ranked opponent ,14 TO's not good but not horrible either considering how well they contest every pass and pressure the whole game, steals ,5....same explanation.....not too bad of a loss

2) Louisville at home -This game made people realize how good this team can be...so. if there's such a thing as a "good loss",this is it, to a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament.

3)Creighton on the road - This game was much closer than the UWGB ,which I think are both comparable to one another, maybe GB slightly better, not a whole lot though. Lost by 7,not our worst loss in my opinion, that's coming up.

4)Florida Gulf Coast, on the road - Ranked high in the mid-major poll, somewhat of a peer of sorts, lost by 12,but the game was highly contested throughout,until the very end.We made more FG's on less attempts ,had a higher shooting percentage because of that, this game was soley decided at the FT line, so I can't really fault them for trying to play tough defense. FGCU shot 80% ,16-20 from the FT line,we shot 100%, but just 4-4 for the game. Also not our worst loss, IMHO

5)USD at home - This is our worst loss of the season, in my opinion. First off, it was at home against our biggest contender to win the conference title , our only home loss to anyone not named Louisville. We played pretty comparable in the shooting stats, rebounding, etc. The game was lost, as many have expressed ,in that they just showed they wanted it more and they took it. Look at two stats that require a lot of hustle and desire, steals and forcing your opponent into to's , they beat us by 6 in each one of those stats. This put us in a bind to have to win at their place, we gave it a pretty good shot, but by then they could see we were their last obstacle again and they had great home court fan support to pull out another win. We didn't have to follow this scenario if we would of won at home.This sets the stage for our loss on the road to them. If we'd of won this, like we should have ,we'd have a one loss conference record instead of two losses, or maybe even no losses, who knows if a win might have changed things in Vermillion.

6) This loss was set up by our first loss to them at Frost.It's much more understandable to lose to a really good team at their house, and wouldn't have hurt us so much if we'd of took care of business and beat them earlier at Frost. So,my pick for the worst loss of the season would be losing to USD at Frost, for the reasons I've laid out.

I agree with your breakdown. Our other problem in the eyes of the tourney is we don't have that many big wins. It's not like we get the opportunity to play ranked teams late in the year as teams in the big conferences do.

[91jack]

Re: Bracketology (2017-2018)

Here's what each loss looks like to me,

5)USD at home - This is our worst loss of the season, in my opinion. First off, it was at home against our biggest contender to win the conference title , our only home loss to anyone not named Louisville. We played pretty comparable in the shooting stats, rebounding, etc. The game was lost, as many have expressed ,in that they just showed they wanted it more and they took it. Look at two stats that require a lot of hustle and desire, steals and forcing your opponent into to's , they beat us by 6 in each one of those stats. This put us in a bind to have to win at their place, we gave it a pretty good shot, but by then they could see we were their last obstacle again and they had great home court fan support to pull out another win. We didn't have to follow this scenario if we would of won at home.This sets the stage for our loss on the road to them. If we'd of won this, like we should have ,we'd have a one loss conference record instead of two losses, or maybe even no losses, who knows if a win might have changed things in Vermillion.

6) This loss was set up by our first loss to them at Frost.It's much more understandable to lose to a really good team at their house, and wouldn't have hurt us so much if we'd of took care of business and beat them earlier at Frost. So,my pick for the worst loss of the season would be losing to USD at Frost, for the reasons I've laid out.

SDSU missed Myah in the home game against USD. I really thought that SDSU would be a deeper team this year but you have Macy, Madi and Myah. You take one of the out and you are hurting. Ellie is playing better now but she wasn't back then. The other players are hit and miss. There seems to be more missing than hitting. Tagyn will get you 8PPG and 6RPG but you aren't going to see her scoring 15+ points very often. I think if Myah was healthy SDSU would have won at home. That is why I think SDSU has a good chance in Sioux Falls. USD just has about 6 players that can average around 10 a game and SDSU doesn't have that. I'm not blaming it on injuries because they happen but (in my opinion) that did really hurt SDSU in that game. Hopefully SDSU can recruit and become a deeper team soon.

[Southeast]

Re: Bracketology (2017-2018)

I like our women’s chances against USD in Sioux Falls better than the men’s. They were a shot or two from putting it away on USD’s home floor with Selland still getting back into the groove. Let’s see what they can do with a loud SDSU crowd and twice the motivation. If they do lose, however, that at-large NCAA bid would take a miracle.

[MontanaRabbit]

Re: Bracketology (2017-2018)

I like our women’s chances against USD in Sioux Falls better than the men’s. They were a shot or two from putting it away on USD’s home floor with Selland still getting back into the groove. Let’s see what they can do with a loud SDSU crowd and twice the motivation. If they do lose, however, that at-large NCAA bid would take a miracle.

I agree 100% with this guy.

[SoDakJack]

Re: Bracketology (2017-2018)

SDSU missed Myah in the home game against USD. I really thought that SDSU would be a deeper team this year but you have Macy, Madi and Myah. You take one of the out and you are hurting. Ellie is playing better now but she wasn't back then. The other players are hit and miss. There seems to be more missing than hitting. Tagyn will get you 8PPG and 6RPG but you aren't going to see her scoring 15+ points very often. I think if Myah was healthy SDSU would have won at home. That is why I think SDSU has a good chance in Sioux Falls. USD just has about 6 players that can average around 10 a game and SDSU doesn't have that. I'm not blaming it on injuries because they happen but (in my opinion) that did really hurt SDSU in that game. Hopefully SDSU can recruit and become a deeper team soon.

If SDSU had a legit scoring threat at PG full-time that would make a huge difference. Lexi is a good player and brings energy, but teams know that she isn't a real threat offensively. They either sag off her to prevent the dribble penetration or they roll the defense away from her and dare her to shoot.

[SanDakotaState]

Re: Bracketology (2017-2018)

If SDSU had a legit scoring threat at PG full-time that would make a huge difference. Lexi is a good player and brings energy, but teams know that she isn't a real threat offensively. They either sag off her to prevent the dribble penetration or they roll the defense away from her and dare her to shoot.

Just wait till Theuninck next year....but to Lexi's credit, she has improved her shooting this year. She still has to know when to keep the defense honest. IMO she took way to many 3 pointers against USD (0-5). That was more than Miller and Guebert who shot 3-4 and 2-4.

[JACKGUYII]

Re: Bracketology (2017-2018)

If SDSU had a legit scoring threat at PG full-time that would make a huge difference. Lexi is a good player and brings energy, but teams know that she isn't a real threat offensively. They either sag off her to prevent the dribble penetration or they roll the defense away from her and dare her to shoot.

I agree on Lexi, but Jenson continues to take way too many 3s at a low percentage at wrong time.

[98Jackfarmer]

Re: Bracketology (2017-2018)

I agree with most all of the comments here. Hindsight is easy, but I agree with Lexi in the game that night towards the end she was a liability. AJ, should have pulled her, like has been said, it's tough to play 4 on 5 on offense against a really good defensive team. I feel comfortable with RCJ shooting a three when she is open, she is a compentent enough of a shooter. We need to be able to find a way to handle/abuse their aggressive defense, just like Green Bay. Easier said than done I realize. Maci driving into a crowd and flailing up a shot doesn't cut it.

[jackdaniel]

Re: Bracketology (2017-2018)

I agree with most all of the comments here. Hindsight is easy, but I agree with Lexi in the game that night towards the end she was a liability. AJ, should have pulled her, like has been said, it's tough to play 4 on 5 on offense against a really good defensive team. I feel comfortable with RCJ shooting a three when she is open, she is a compentent enough of a shooter. We need to be able to find a way to handle/abuse their aggressive defense, just like Green Bay. Easier said than done I realize. Maci driving into a crowd and flailing up a shot doesn't cut it.

On this last point ,highlighted in bold, I might have to come to AJ's defense a little because, the idea of giving your best player the ball when the game is on the line with the last few seconds is repeatedly pounded into peoples minds (and coaches) by the media "experts" calling the action.

How many times in this situation have you heard them comment on who will likely get the last shot by saying " I know who I'd give the last shot to" (enter chuckling). That said, I still definitely want Macy involved in the last shot play, but driving into a crowd of defenders isn't going to work out, I'd say a good majority of the time. A better method of getting her, or Maddie an open shot, or get a post player a good shot, or a play designed to open up a driving lane to the hoop might work better.

I harken back to when we tied Baylor in our first NCAA Tournament ever with a nice back door cut with just seconds on the clock remaining, to tie the game. It wasn't Jen Warkenthien, nor Maria Boever, or any one out on the perimeter who can hit a three (we had plenty who could). No, it was little 5'7" Jill Young who slipped in on the back door cut and made the crucial layup to tie the game. It totally caught Baylor by surprise. That was masterfull play calling on the part of AJ and the coaching staff.

As far as depth is concerned, injuries took it's toll this season, lost for their last season are Tiffaney and Chynna ,and red shirting Thueninck, not to mention the in season set backs due to injury for Myah and Tylee. We started the season with a roster of 13 players, we are just now getting back to ten players.

[bigticket1]

Re: Bracketology (2017-2018)

Two things make me like the women's chances better in Sioux Falls this year compared to last. Most obvious is Macy being back. But just as important is the scoring ability of our bench. Last year the bench consisted of Palmer, Flaata, Tracy and Ena Viso. This year we have added Selland, Irwin and Casco Jensen in addition to Palmer and Tracy. That group provides more firepower than the Jacks have had off the bench for a few years.

[SoDakJack]

Re: Bracketology (2017-2018)

Two things make me like the women's chances better in Sioux Falls this year compared to last. Most obvious is Macy being back. But just as important is the scoring ability of our bench. Last year the bench consisted of Palmer, Flaata, Tracy and Ena Viso. This year we have added Selland, Irwin and Casco Jensen in addition to Palmer and Tracy. That group provides more firepower than the Jacks have had off the bench for a few years.

The only team that worries me is USD. They are the only team that is really balanced enough on both ends to give the Jacks consistent problems. They have proven that they can go into a blue environment and win. I also think that they have the only coach in conference that can out-coach AJ occasionally.

If SDSU can fight the urge to settle into becoming a jump shooting team, then I like our chances against anyone.

[goon]

Re: Bracketology (2017-2018)

Two things make me like the women's chances better in Sioux Falls this year compared to last. Most obvious is Macy being back. But just as important is the scoring ability of our bench. Last year the bench consisted of Palmer, Flaata, Tracy and Ena Viso. This year we have added Selland, Irwin and Casco Jensen in addition to Palmer and Tracy. That group provides more firepower than the Jacks have had off the bench for a few years.

I wouldn't mind seeing the Sydneys trying to score more. they seem rather effective and Palmers outside shot can help keep teams honest just like Lexi, a couple attempts agame is fine as long as it fits into the flow of the offense. Just this team on Defense doesn't seem as aggressive as SDSU teams in years past. Really looking forward to this tournament.

[jackdaniel]

Re: Bracketology (2017-2018)

The only team that worries me is USD. They are the only team that is really balanced enough on both ends to give the Jacks consistent problems. They have proven that they can go into a blue environment and win. I also think that they have the only coach in conference that can out-coach AJ occasionally.

If SDSU can fight the urge to settle into becoming a jump shooting team, then I like our chances against anyone.

Except from Macy ,her shooting percentage shooting short jumpers is pretty good, Maddie has stepped up and hit some....but I generally agree, as a team the shooting percentage isn't good enough to shoot those type of shots too frequently. Post ups, three pointers, or all the way to the hoop are all that's left, hopefully we can do enough of these we won't have to settle for too many jump shots. I might add if we are aggressive FT's help a lot, but not when we make 4-4 for the whole game like we did at FGCU, then not so much.