Bracketology

[rabidrabbit]

Re: Bracketology

The difference between this year and last year is that SDSU will almost certainly be at the top of the list of teams ranked by RPI available to the WNIT.

Last year we were on the bubble at the bottom, where conference tournament upsets and politics could both bump us out of the WNIT.  I don't think that any upsets in the conference tournaments will significantly affect where SDSU is seeded in the WNIT.  If we're not a first-round bye team there probably needs to be a Congressional investigation.  

Yes, just influences who we may have in our bracket as potential opponents.

[rabidrabbit]

Re: Bracketology

Updated to 3/5/07 reflects conferences that are set. +17 best RPI's

Here's the WNIT criteria.  

http://www.womensnit.com/

From that article:  

The selection of the 48 teams for the Postseason WNIT will be according to the following:
   1. Thirty-one (31) spots will be filled with one team per conference.  That team will be the highest-finishing team in the conference’s regular-season standings, that does not advance to the NCAA Tournament.  As in the past, the teams’ record must be at or above .500.
   For example, if the second-place team during the regular season does not win its conference tournament, and the top-seeded team does (and earns the NCAA berth), then the second-place team automatically will be invited to the WNIT.
   If the top-seeded team after the regular season does not win its conference tournament and is not invited to the NCAA Tournament, then it will have a guaranteed spot in the WNIT.
   No matter which team from a conference wins its conference tournament, the WNIT will take the next best team available.  That team is determined by conference tournament seeding based on regular-season standings.
 2. The remaining seventeen (17) berths will be filled by the top teams available based on the selection criteria used in the past.

The Lady Jacks are part of that 17 berths.

Using the Bracktology (for at-large/multi-bid conferences) + the seedings (assume the #1 conference team loses in the conference final) here's the likely 48. (Using Sagarin's because of conference listing)

Jacks are rated 28.  All possible WNIT PARTICIPANTS WITH 40 OR BETTER HIGHLIGHTED Bolded are invited best in conference, as bolded above.

American East - 71 Hartford or 122 Stoney Brook
Atl 10 - 84 UNC-Charlotte
ACC - 68 VA, 77 VA tech
A-Sun  128 Belmont or 190 ETSU (Jacksonville #2)
Big 12  42 Missouri,  53 TxTech, 60 K St.
Big East  64 DePaul or 85 Seton Hall
Big Sky  32 Montana or95 No AZ
Big South 120 Liberty or 177 High POINT
Big 10  45 Ill, 55 Wis, 57 IN  58 MN  [s]63 PA St.[/s]
Big West 102 UC-Riverside or 124 UCSB
Colonial  37 Old Dominion, JMU or Del, 69 Hofstra
C-USA 70 Tulane or 90 UTEP, 93 Rice, 94 SMU
Horizon 46 UW-GB or 150 Ill-Chi.
Ivy 185 Dartmouth
Metro 170 Iona
Mid Am  19 Bowling Green or 56 Ball St.
MidCon 125 Oakland or 150 VALPO
MEAC 89 Coppin St. 219 Del St
MoVal  86 Il St, or 88 SIU, 92 In St.
Mt West 44 NM, 54 TCU, 61 BYU, 62 Wyo, 79 Utah
NEC 159 Long Island U
OVC 139 Murray St
Pac10  29 Washington 49 USC, 67 OR
Patriot 146 Bucknell
SEC  43 UK, 48 SC, 59 ARK, 73 MS St.
Southern 81 Davison, or 98 WCU
SLC  78 UT Arl or 143 SFA
SWAC 233 Jackson St or 251 Prairie View
Sunbelt 51 WKU, 65 ULL, 82 ARK St., 87 AR-LR, 96 Denver
WCC 99 USDiego
WAC 83 Boise St. or 97 LA Tech

Every hilited team is likely to be dancing.  But if not, SDSU still no worse than #5 overall seed.  Highly likely to be the highest seed in the WNIT.  ;D

Likely at Large
ACC -1
Big 12 - 2
Ind - 1 (SDSU  )
Big 10 - 3 or 4 (Penn St. needs a winning record)
Colonial - 1
C-USA - 0 or 1
Mt West - 2-3
SEC 2-3
Sunbelt 1-4

[Jacks99]

Re: Bracketology

Thanks for clarifying that Rabid, If anything it should only drop our seeding.

[89rabbit]

Re: Bracketology

http://www.fortwayne.com/mld/newssen...s/16845368.htm

South Dakota State in position for a WNIT bid

WAYNE ORTMAN
Associated Press

BROOKINGS, S.D. - In the NCAA nowhere land called transition, the women's basketball program at South Dakota State University has clearly marked the path to its new home.

This team with a can-do attitude and one senior has raised eyebrows among NCAA Division I opponents, running up a 23-5 record in a strong schedule, drawing national poll votes last fall and awaiting a possible call from the Women's National Invitational Tournament.

Stuck in a four-year transition period between Division II and Division I classification, the WNIT is the only hope left for a team that has played - and beaten - top 25 teams but won't be eligible for the NCAA tournament until spring 2009.

"They're doing what they need to do to make a case for themselves in the tournament," said Renee Carlson, assistant director of the WNIT, which will announce the tournament field on Monday. . . . (read more)


Go State!

[thebluehatman]

Re: Bracketology

Well our friends from San Jose State who struggled horribly against us in December knocked off the number 1 seed Boise State in the WAC quarterfinals today.

[NightHawk78]

Re: Bracketology

Well our friends from San Jose State who struggled horribly against us in December knocked off the number 1 seed Boise State in the WAC quarterfinals today.

Uh, BHM........Boise State beat San Jose State 81-64.

http://www.wacsports.com/ViewArticle...;ATCLID=746948

[thebluehatman]

Re: Bracketology

ESPN says other wise
Game 3 - (8) San Jose State 81, (1) Boise State 64

[NightHawk78]

Re: Bracketology

Here's the box score for the game:

http://www.wacsports.com/fls/10100/s...B_OEM_ID=10100

ESPN.com has the correct score......and the wrong one posted. :

[rabidrabbit]

Re: Bracketology

Updated to 3/9/07  reflects conferences that are set.  + 17 best RPI's.  At worst, SDSU goes in as the #4 overall pick, behind 3 regular season champs who lose in their tourneys this weekend.  Bowling Green (MAC), Montana (Big Sky), and UW-Green Bay (Horizon).  If they win tourneys or are selected to NCAA anyway, then no issue.  SDSU IS THE #1   AT-LARGE ELIGIBLE TEAM

[quote author=rabidrabbit link=1172761478/0#1 date=1172770642]Here's the WNIT criteria.  

http://www.womensnit.com/

From that article:  

The selection of the 48 teams for the Postseason WNIT will be according to the following:
   1. Thirty-one (31) spots will be filled with one team per conference.  That team will be the highest-finishing team in the conference’s regular-season standings, that does not advance to the NCAA Tournament.  As in the past, the teams’ record must be at or above .500.
   For example, if the second-place team during the regular season does not win its conference tournament, and the top-seeded team does (and earns the NCAA berth), then the second-place team automatically will be invited to the WNIT.
   If the top-seeded team after the regular season does not win its conference tournament and is not invited to the NCAA Tournament, then it will have a guaranteed spot in the WNIT.
   No matter which team from a conference wins its conference tournament, the WNIT will take the next best team available.  That team is determined by conference tournament seeding based on regular-season standings.
 2. The remaining seventeen (17) berths will be filled by the top teams available based on the selection criteria used in the past.

The Lady Jacks are part of that 17 berths.

Using the Bracktology (for at-large/multi-bid conferences) + the seedings (assume the #1 conference team loses in the conference final) here's the likely 48. (Using Sagarin's because of conference listing)

Jacks are rated 28.  All possible WNIT PARTICIPANTS WITH 40 OR BETTER HIGHLIGHTED  Bolded are invited best in conference, as bolded above.

American East - 71 Hartford or 122 Stoney Brook
Atl 10 - 84 UNC-Charlotte
ACC - 68 VA, 77 VA tech
A-Sun  128 Belmont or 190 ETSU (Jacksonville #2)
Big 12  42 Missouri,  [s]53 TxTech[/s], 60 K St.
Big East  64 DePaul or 85 Seton Hall
Big Sky  32 Montana or 95 No AZ
Big South 177 High POINT
Big 10  45 Ill, 55 Wis, 57 IN  58 MN  [s]63 PA St.[/s]
Big West 102 UC-Riverside or 124 UCSB
Colonial   69 Hofstra
C-USA 70 Tulane
Horizon 46 UW-GB or 150 Ill-Chi.
Ivy 185 Dartmouth
Metro   170 Iona
Mid Am  19 Bowling Green or 56 Ball St.
MidCon 125 Oakland
MEAC 89 Coppin St. 219 Del St
MoVal  86 Il St, or 88 SIU, 92 In St.
Mt West 44 NM, 54 TCU, 61 BYU, 62 Wyo, 79 Utah
NEC 159 Long Island U
OVC 139 Murray St
Pac10  29 Washington 49 USC, 67 OR
Patriot  146 Bucknell
SEC  43 UK, 48 SC, 59 ARK, 73 MS St.
Southern  81 Davison, or 98 WCU
SLC  78 UT Arl or 143 SFA
SWAC 233 Jackson St or 251 Prairie View
Sunbelt 51 WKU, 65 ULL, 82 ARK St., 87 AR-LR, 96 Denver
WCC 99 USDiego
WAC 83 Boise St.

Every hilited team is likely to be dancing.  But if not, SDSU still no worse than #4  overall seed.  Highly likely to be the highest seed in the WNIT.  ;D

Likely at Large
ACC -1
Big 12 - 2
Ind - 1 (SDSU  )
Big 10 - 3 or 4 (Penn St. needs a winning record)
Colonial - 1
C-USA - 0 or 1
Mt West - 2-3
SEC 2-3
Sunbelt 1-4

[/quote]
Using the Greenfield Power Index, and these PESSIMISSIC outcomes, then Virginia, Oregon, Utah, Ark. St., Davidson, St.Joe's, Indiana St. are the WNIT bubble teams that get missed.  However, for that to happen, virtually EVERY Reg Season Champ not already set for NCAA's has to NOT WIN TOURNEY and NOT selected for NCAA's.    

La Tech, participant in ALL 25 NCAA women's tourneys played does not receive even a WNIT invite.

[filbert]

Re: Bracketology

Filbert's Bracketology 2.0 (my final answer, at least until the WNIT announces its field).

Again, completely ignoring geography and other factors--just having schools host by a strict seeding according to the vaporia.com site.

Bracket #1
SDSU (#1 overall seed), first round bye, hosts winner of San Diego at Charlotte
Wyoming, first round bye, hosts winner of Jackson State at Tulane
winners meet at higher seed
Ball State, first round bye, hosts winner of S.F. Austin at Mississippi State
Illinois, first round bye, hosts winner of Bucknell at Oregon

Bracket #2
South Carolina, first round bye, hosts winner of Murray State at Utah
Western Kentucky, first round bye, hosts winner of Oakland at Davidson
Indiana, first round bye, hosts winner of Iona at Kansas State
DePaul, first round bye, hosts winner of High Point at Hartford

Bracket #3
Brigham Young, first round bye, hosts winner of Santa Barbara at W. Carolina
Louisiana-Lafayette, first round bye, hosts winner of E. Tennessee State at Minnesota
Texas Christian, first round bye, hosts winner of Nevada at Arkansas State
Missouri, first round bye, hosts winner of Illinois-Chicago at Arkansas

Bracket #4
Southern Cal, first-round bye, hosts winner of Coppin State at S. Illinois
Virginia, first round bye, hosts winner of Dartmouth at Wisconsin
Kentucky, first round bye, hosts winner of Long Island at Seton Hall
Hofstra, first round bye, hosts winner of Weber State at Virginia Tech

Last 4 at-large teams in:
Oregon
Arkansas State
Utah
Davidson

First 4 (qualifiying i.e. over-.500) teams left out:
St. Joseph's
Illinois State
Rice
Arkansas-Little Rock

We'll know for real tomorrow night . . .

[thebluehatman]

Re: Bracketology

Replace Weber State with Northern Arizona...Northern Arizona would be the best team from the Big Sky not to make it to the NCAAs.

[filbert]

Re: Bracketology

Replace Weber State with Northern Arizona...Northern Arizona would be the best team from the Big Sky not to make it to the NCAAs.

The WNIT awards their automatic bids according to the seeding of the conference's tournament--the highest seed not to go to the NCAA gets their automatic bid. Weber State was #3 and Northern Arizona was #4 in the conference tournament seeding.

[EQguy]

Re: Bracketology

Filbert's Bracketology 2.0 (my final answer, at least until the WNIT announces its field).

Again, completely ignoring geography and other factors--just having schools host by a strict seeding according to the vaporia.com site.

Bracket #1
SDSU (#1 overall seed), first round bye, hosts winner of San Diego at Charlotte
Wyoming, first round bye, hosts winner of Jackson State at Tulane
winners meet at higher seed
Ball State, first round bye, hosts winner of S.F. Austin at Mississippi State
Illinois, first round bye, hosts winner of Bucknell at Oregon

Bracket #2
South Carolina, first round bye, hosts winner of Murray State at Utah
Western Kentucky, first round bye, hosts winner of Oakland at Davidson
Indiana, first round bye, hosts winner of Iona at Kansas State
DePaul, first round bye, hosts winner of High Point at Hartford

Bracket #3
Brigham Young, first round bye, hosts winner of Santa Barbara at W. Carolina
Louisiana-Lafayette, first round bye, hosts winner of E. Tennessee State at Minnesota
Texas Christian, first round bye, hosts winner of Nevada at Arkansas State
Missouri, first round bye, hosts winner of Illinois-Chicago at Arkansas

Bracket #4
Southern Cal, first-round bye, hosts winner of Coppin State at S. Illinois
Virginia, first round bye, hosts winner of Dartmouth at Wisconsin
Kentucky, first round bye, hosts winner of Long Island at Seton Hall
Hofstra, first round bye, hosts winner of Weber State at Virginia Tech

Last 4 at-large teams in:
Oregon
Arkansas State
Utah
Davidson

First 4 (qualifiying i.e. over-.500) teams left out:
St. Joseph's
Illinois State
Rice
Arkansas-Little Rock

We'll know for real tomorrow night . . .

Filbert, bidding to become the Joe Lunardi of the WNIT! I'll be matching this up tomorrow night.

[filbert]

Re: Bracketology

Filbert, bidding to become the Joe Lunardi of the WNIT! I'll be matching this up tomorrow night.

Only until 2008-09

[thebluehatman]

Re: Bracketology

Frank (Brookings, SD): Charlie, do you think South Dakota State (23-5 overall, 6-3 against BCS teams and a win at MTSU) would have been worthy of an at-large bid if not still in the transition from Division II?

Charlie Creme: (12:25 PM ET ) Perhaps, but I really never evaluated them because it was a moot point.

http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=14964 Apparently Charlie is dissing on us a little.