Future Rosters

[wcbsas]

Re: Future Rosters

I'm also not worried about the grad transfer.

Let's say a kid doesn't redshirt we get: freshman, sophomore, junior, senior years

If he redshirts and leaves via grad transfer: redshirt, redshirt freshman, sophomore, junior years


The difference is we get the freshman year out of the first scenario. If the player doesn't transfer we get a 5th year senior. I'll take that trade every day.

Yes, but he doesn't play his redshirt year ... in order words you get only 3 years of actual game play versus 4 years in the first scenario.

Your math doesn't work ... in scenario #1 you get years 1, 2, 3 & 4 from the player and scenario #2 you get years 2, 3 & 4 (year 1 is a redshirt year and year 5 is lost as he leaves for another school).

[MontanaRabbit]

Re: Future Rosters

I guess I am not as worried about a potential grad transfer as some on this board. If they are good enough to be lost in the grad transfer, so be it.

The more I think about it...I hope that all 4 of them are threats to leave via grad transfer. That would mean that we got to see some really amazing basketball for the next 3 years after this season. I may not be a recruiter, but to go into a house and show kids what they can accomplish and were they can go by joining the SDSU program would sway a few very good players to replace those 4.

I'm also not worried about the grad transfer.

Let's say a kid doesn't redshirt we get: freshman, sophomore, junior, senior years

If he redshirts and leaves via grad transfer: redshirt, redshirt freshman, sophomore, junior years


The difference is we get the freshman year out of the first scenario. If the player doesn't transfer we get a 5th year senior. I'll take that trade every day.

[SoDakJack]

Re: Future Rosters

The grad-transfer issue is the one negative I see at this point.

I guess I am not as worried about a potential grad transfer as some on this board. If they are good enough to be lost in the grad transfer, so be it.

The more I think about it...I hope that all 4 of them are threats to leave via grad transfer. That would mean that we got to see some really amazing basketball for the next 3 years after this season. I may not be a recruiter, but to go into a house and show kids what they can accomplish and were they can go by joining the SDSU program would sway a few very good players to replace those 4.

[RabbitObsessed]

Re: Future Rosters

If the freshmen are as talented as we have been told, is it worth burning a year of eligibility for that 9 minutes/1 point a game? Or will they benefit more from a year of weight training and learning the system? In the past I don't think the team had the luxury of being able to red-shirt talented players. Daum's talent, Telly's work ethic, and the emergence of King and Jenkins Jr have allowed TJ to do it. I see it less as an indictment of the freshmen's talent, and more about the ability of the top 7 guys.

Giving up their age 18/19 season for their age 22/23 season. Works for me.

[GopherHole]

Re: Future Rosters

Lane Severyn is not a marquee player, but he's a contributor and has done so without making waves despite losing minutes and starting some from last season. He provides intangibles that a freshman would have a very difficult time out performing.

Coming into this year he had played in 77 games, starting 10 of the last 11 games last year. While playing 20.6 minutes/game in Summit League action, he averaged 4.2 pts and 3.3 rebounds per game. Lane was 2nd in steals and had a 12/5 assist to turnover ratio during conference play. That kind of experience pays dividends in key games.

He's lost playing time this year despite working his butt off in shooting practice. Lane was a liability last year on the offensive end. For the season he shot .286 from beyond the arc and .357 overall. This year he's upped those numbers to .500 and .537.

His maturity as a red shirt senior is evident. At 6'5" 220 lbs., he's versatile and can take the physicality of playing in big games. He may not have the upside of some of the talented freshmen, but he brings valuable minutes while not fussing over reduced playing time.

My only argument for playing one of the freshmen was if we needed to develop a post player for next year. If Daum goes, we'd be losing both post players and Reed. That's virtually all of our front line scoring and 78% of our rebounding. That's next year. Lets ride the wave of our best team ever into the post season and see what we can do!

[Southeast]

Re: Future Rosters

You would be trading (potentially) these kids' best year for their worst year to try and help out a team that is already exceptional. I like the redshirt approach and long-term strategy. The grad-transfer issue is the one negative I see at this point.

[91jack]

Re: Future Rosters

Lane's 1 ppg average is only summit games. Over the course of a season he's averaging 3.1 ppg.

I wouldn't get too wrapped up in PPG averages. Sure everyone likes to see a guy torch the nets, but it's not realistic that everyone can average 15+ ppg. Everyone on the team has their role and Lane plays his role well. He's 13-26 from three on the year so he's dangerous from out there if left open.

Saying one of the freshman can't supplant a guy averaging 1 ppg is bad overlooks the other valuable things a guy like Lane provides us. I'm certain Lane could average more PPG but he's not looking to score. We've got other guys that can score at a more efficient rate, but at the same time if you leave any one of our nine guys open they can score.

Looking at the stats from out team I'm more convinced keeping the freshman redshirted is the right call. Here's our team 3 point shooting this year:

Daum: 55/129=.426
Jenkins: 58/138=.420
Telly: 46/104=.442
King: 15/42=.357
Flatten: 33/65=.508
Key: 6/21=.286
Theisen: 15/37=.405
Howell: 1/2=.500
Severyn: 13/26=.500

Outside of Key and Howell, the entire team is dangerous from deep. That places incredible pressure on the other team. We've got the right guys in the right roles.

I guess with the way I worded it might not have been exactly how I meant it. The whole bench only scores about 13 PPG so none of them do much scoring. We have three players that shoot about 60% of the teams shots. As long as they keep scoring at the rate they do, it doesn't matter a ton who else scores.
I just didn't know if any of the freshmen could bring some "other" stuff to the table. Post defense, rebounding or something else. Not to say that the players on the bench don't do OK at those things but Daum get twice as many rebounds as anybody else on the team. If one of the freshmen could do some of those things, I wouldn't mind them playing.
I do think there is something to the idea of redshirting most/all of your freshmen. NDSU did that with Woodside, Winkelman, etc and it worked for them. That extra year seems to help more in MBB than WBB.
I do think if we played one of the freshmen it would be for more than 9 minutes though. It depends on what position they play but we could actually cut each of starters minutes by a couple or so minutes each. Would they play a little better if they didn't have to play so many minutes?

[MontanaRabbit]

Re: Future Rosters

If the freshmen are as talented as we have been told, is it worth burning a year of eligibility for that 9 minutes/1 point a game? Or will they benefit more from a year of weight training and learning the system? In the past I don't think the team had the luxury of being able to red-shirt talented players. Daum's talent, Telly's work ethic, and the emergence of King and Jenkins Jr have allowed TJ to do it. I see it less as an indictment of the freshmen's talent, and more about the ability of the top 7 guys.

Said so much more eloquently than I. Cost/benefit analysis type thing.

[SoDakJack]

Re: Future Rosters

I can't decide if thinking that one of the freshman couldn't "supplant" a player that plays 9 minutes/game and only averages 1 PPG is good or bad. I really like Lane so I am glad that he gets to play but what does this tell you about our freshmen? I do think that Lane will hit some outside shots so his PPG will come up but that is where he is at now.

If the freshmen are as talented as we have been told, is it worth burning a year of eligibility for that 9 minutes/1 point a game? Or will they benefit more from a year of weight training and learning the system? In the past I don't think the team had the luxury of being able to red-shirt talented players. Daum's talent, Telly's work ethic, and the emergence of King and Jenkins Jr have allowed TJ to do it. I see it less as an indictment of the freshmen's talent, and more about the ability of the top 7 guys.

[MontanaRabbit]

Re: Future Rosters

TJ talked about this last night on the radio show. He is convinced that mid-major programs that stay strong over a long period of time like Gonzaga and Butler redshirt most of their freshmen classes. If I remember the number correctly, he said 13 of the 15 players on last year's Gonzaga team had redshirted.

I agree wholeheartedly with this. We generally can't recruit the blue chip guys that are ready to compete at this level. We need to develop the talent. Daum is the perfect example. He used his redshirt year to transform himself into a star, he lost weight and added muscle.

Jenkins went to prep school out of high school correct? So he's essentially a red-shirt freshman age-wise?

[MontanaRabbit]

Re: Future Rosters

I can't decide if thinking that one of the freshman couldn't "supplant" a player that plays 9 minutes/game and only averages 1 PPG is good or bad. I really like Lane so I am glad that he gets to play but what does this tell you about our freshmen? I do think that Lane will hit some outside shots so his PPG will come up but that is where he is at now.
I think having a year to sit out helps most players but who knows what will happen four years from now. Will all the the freshmen still be here? Will TJ still be here? Will they all be healthy? Will none of them think about being a grad transfer? If we start winning games in the NCAA tournament will TJ be able to recruit better players and recruit over our freshmen?
I am not the coach so I don't know what they can and can not do, if they are completely healthy or what is up but there are other things to look at for me.

Lane's 1 ppg average is only summit games. Over the course of a season he's averaging 3.1 ppg.

I wouldn't get too wrapped up in PPG averages. Sure everyone likes to see a guy torch the nets, but it's not realistic that everyone can average 15+ ppg. Everyone on the team has their role and Lane plays his role well. He's 13-26 from three on the year so he's dangerous from out there if left open.

Saying one of the freshman can't supplant a guy averaging 1 ppg is bad overlooks the other valuable things a guy like Lane provides us. I'm certain Lane could average more PPG but he's not looking to score. We've got other guys that can score at a more efficient rate, but at the same time if you leave any one of our nine guys open they can score.

Looking at the stats from out team I'm more convinced keeping the freshman redshirted is the right call. Here's our team 3 point shooting this year:

Daum: 55/129=.426
Jenkins: 58/138=.420
Telly: 46/104=.442
King: 15/42=.357
Flatten: 33/65=.508
Key: 6/21=.286
Theisen: 15/37=.405
Howell: 1/2=.500
Severyn: 13/26=.500

Outside of Key and Howell, the entire team is dangerous from deep. That places incredible pressure on the other team. We've got the right guys in the right roles.

[bigticket1]

Re: Future Rosters

TJ talked about this last night on the radio show. He is convinced that mid-major programs that stay strong over a long period of time like Gonzaga and Butler redshirt most of their freshmen classes. If I remember the number correctly, he said 13 of the 15 players on last year's Gonzaga team had redshirted.

[91jack]

Re: Future Rosters

We are playing 9 in our regular rotation. Chris Howell and Lane Severyn are the last two in while getting 13.5 and 9 min/game respectively in Summit League play. In my opinion it would be difficult to have one of the redshirt freshmen supplant those two players in rotation. I'm thankful we have the depth on our roster that we can redshirt future talent. I'd take my chances on having them for four more years after this season.

I can't decide if thinking that one of the freshman couldn't "supplant" a player that plays 9 minutes/game and only averages 1 PPG is good or bad. I really like Lane so I am glad that he gets to play but what does this tell you about our freshmen? I do think that Lane will hit some outside shots so his PPG will come up but that is where he is at now.
I think having a year to sit out helps most players but who knows what will happen four years from now. Will all the the freshmen still be here? Will TJ still be here? Will they all be healthy? Will none of them think about being a grad transfer? If we start winning games in the NCAA tournament will TJ be able to recruit better players and recruit over our freshmen?
I am not the coach so I don't know what they can and can not do, if they are completely healthy or what is up but there are other things to look at for me.

[SoDakJack]

Re: Future Rosters

Certainly not in the DI era.

IMO, it's unfair to "burn" a redshirt and have the kid get little or no minutes unless the kid just doesn't want to redshirt. With our team this year, there aren't a lot of excess minutes.

Exactly. The only position that would have possibly been feasible to burn one at the start of the year would have been at guard. But, at this point, would any of those freshman fit better into the King/Jenkins Jr/Key/Howell rotation?

[OldHare]

Re: Future Rosters

If they were that good they'd be playing. Now I'll agree with this statement. They've never had 4 (freshman) redshirts of this quality. But when is the last time they red-shirted 4 scholarship/scholarship quality freshman?

There may be some health issues for a couple of the freshmen that pushed the redshirt notion more quickly too.