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D-II Bracketology

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  • #1

    D-II Bracketology

    After exhaustive study of the RMAC, NSIC, and NCC, here's how things look from Lee's Summit:

    #1: Metropolitan State (projected record 28-2). The Roadrunners get rewarded for playing in a conference with so many inferior teams. If they win out, make your travel plans for Denver. That’s not a given however, as they finish with a regular season home game with Nebraska Kearney. If they split that game and the expected rematch with the Lopers in the RMAC Tournament, it could cost Metro the #1 seed.

    #2: South Dakota State (projected record 29-3). Jackrabbits need to win out, including the NCC Tournament, and have Metro and Kearney each stumble to earn the region’s top seed and host the Division II regional in their swan song in D-II. Winning out won’t be easy, as they finish the regular season on the road at Nebraska-Omaha and South Dakota, both teams which could easily upset the Rabbits.

    #3: Nebraska-Kearney (projected record 26-4). See Metropolitan State. A split against Metro and a stumble by SDSU would let the Lopers host the North Central Regional for the second straight year.

    #4: Northern State (projected record 25-5): Best of the NSIC. Again. It’s not clear if the Wolves can run with any of the top three teams in the region, however.

    #5: South Dakota (projected 21-9): Coyotes can solidify their regional credentials with a win against SDSU in the Jackrabbits’ last ever visit to the DakotaDome. Otherwise they’ll need a strong showing in the NCC Tournament.

    #6: Fort Lewis (projected 20-7): Skyhawks have two big problems: Metro and Kearney. Still, a strong finish and a reasonable showing in the RMAC tournament should get them in.

    #7: Bemidji State (20-9): Similar to Fort Lewis…the Beavers might possibly afford to lose the NSIC championship game to Northern, but only if there are no upsets in the other conference tournaments. Otherwise they may have a problem.

    #8: Colorado Christian (20-7): The Cougars also may not need to win their conference tournament, but with Ft. Lewis and Bemidji are on the bubble if a darkhorse wins a conference tournament.

    Need to win their conference championship to get in (but finishing over .500)
    Nebraska-Omaha (19-10)
    Colorado State-Pueblo (19-8 )
    Mesa State (19-9)
    Ft. Hays State (17-11)
    St. Cloud State (17-11)
    Minnesota-Duluth (17-12)
    Winona State (17-12)
    Adams State (17-14)
    Minnesota State-Mankato (16-12)
    North Dakota State (16-13)
    Wayne State (15-13)
    "I think we'll be OK"
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Re: D-II Bracketology

    Nice work Filbert, couple of points of contention:

    UNO will get in even with a split this weekend as long as they win their opener in the NCC tourney. If they beat us again, they are in regardless.

    USD is not a lock and this keeps SCSU and NDSU alive. I believe based on precedent (previous NCC teams with similar records to current teams i.e. 17-12, 18-11, etc..as well as NDSU's performance in the NCC) that 3 teams from the NCC will get in. A lot will depend on this weekend. If NDSU sweeps they still have a chance. If either MSU or SCSU sweep they still have a chance. Especially given Bemidji and Ft Lewis's weak performances outside of their conferences and Col Christian late season collapse.

    There is a lot of ball to play yet, but I think the regional will include:

    Top 3 (order to be determined)
    SDSU
    Metro
    Kearney

    #4 Northern

    Bottom 4 will include 2 teams from the NCC (UNO > USD > NDSU>SCSU>MSU) and 1 each from the RMAC (Ft. Lewis > Christian > Ft. Hays) and NSIC (Bemidji > Wayne St. > UMD). The bottom 4 will likely be determined by performance in their respective conference tourneys.
    We are here to add what we can to life, not get what we can from life. -Sir William Osler

    We do not see things as they are, we see things as we are.

    Comment

    • #3
      Re: D-II Bracketology

      USD or UNO can probably both get in if they beat the Rabbits this weekend.

      If that happens, St. Cloud or Mankato are in the same boat--might be able to lose the tournament championship game and get in, but probably need to win out otherwise.

      I disagree about NDSU--I think they're done unless they win the tournament.

      Once again, we will see if SDSU has the heart of a champion. If we go into the home arenas of the two other prime NCC contenders for post-season play and come out with two victories, I like our chances to get to Bakersfield, even if that road goes through Denver or Kearney.
      "I think we'll be OK"

      Comment

      • #4
        Re: D-II Bracketology

        NDSU could finish 9-5 in conference and 18-12 overall if they lose in the conference championship game and not before. If this is the case (speculation) I think there in. I think it will be tougher for USD and certainly SCSU and MSU given that they may not finish above .500 in conference play. Again, as you said Filbert, a lot will depend on the conference tourney in all 3 conferences.
        We are here to add what we can to life, not get what we can from life. -Sir William Osler

        We do not see things as they are, we see things as we are.

        Comment

        • #5
          Re: D-II Bracketology

          Col. Christian lost again last night, thats 7 losses in their last 9 games.  I don't think they'll perform well in the RMAC tourney and they shouldn't get a spot in the regional.  Ft. Lewis lost to Mesa St. last week and Ft. Hays has a similar record to these 2 (they still have Metro again).  As I have stated before, I don't think the RMAC will get more than 3 (maybe only 2) regional spots and the NSIC will get no more than 2.  That leaves at least 3 for the NCC and maybe even 4.

          I would much rather see Metro and/or UNK go down in the RMAC tourney (better chance for SDSU to host the regional) with a 3rd team from the RMAC winning the tourney and qualifying for the regional rather than a 4th NCC team.  However, if it comes down to selection the NCC deserves first billing amongst the 3 conferences.

          Last weeks regional rankings:
          1. Metropolitan State (21-2)
          2. Nebraska-Kearney (21-2)  
          3. South Dakota State (23-3)
          4. Northern State (19-5)
          5. Colorado Christian (17-6)
          6. Fort Lewis (16-6)
          7. North Dakota State (14-9)
          8. Nebraska-Omaha (16-7)
          9. South Dakota (16-7)
          10. Bemidji State (16-8)

          Top 4 will remain the same.  Christian, NDSU, and Ft. Lewis will drop (latest loss won't count against Christian but UNO should move ahead of them with 2 wins this weekend, NDSU out of the top 10).  UNO and Bemidji St. move up with USD staying at #9 or up to #8.  Mesa St. may sneak in to the top 10.
          We are here to add what we can to life, not get what we can from life. -Sir William Osler

          We do not see things as they are, we see things as we are.

          Comment

          • #6
            Re: D-II Bracketology

            Updated Regional Rankings

            NORTH CENTRAL
            1. Metropolitan State 23-2
            2. South Dakota State 25-3
            3. Nebraska-Kearney 23-2
            4. Northern State 20-5
            5. Nebraska-Omaha 18-7
            6. South Dakota 17-8
            7. Bemidji State 18-8
            8. Colorado Christian 18-7
            9. Mesa State 16-8
            10. Ft. Lewis 17-7

            Nice to see we moved ahead of Neberska-Kearney ;D
            Go State! Go State!

            Comment

            • #7
              Re: D-II Bracketology

              UNK's wins over Regis and Ft. Hays must not have counted for as much as our wins over SCSU and MSU. Best case scenario for this weekend:

              We sweep on the road which gives us nice points for wins against teams >.500 on the road. Ft. Hays, Thursday, or UNK, Saturday (or both) beat Metro (preferably Ft. Hays). This puts us in the drivers seat for the #1 seed.
              We are here to add what we can to life, not get what we can from life. -Sir William Osler

              We do not see things as they are, we see things as we are.

              Comment

              • #8
                Re: D-II Bracketology

                I'm a bit surprised we moved ahead of Kearney. The top three teams must be separated by the narrowest of margins. If SDSU wins two on the road, and Metro wins two at home, and SDSU might just inch ahead of Metro anyway in the region.

                The key is SDSU has to win these next two games. Amazing that our favorite team is 25-3 and is facing two must-win games...
                "I think we'll be OK"

                Comment

                • #9
                  Re: D-II Bracketology

                  Metro no problem with Ft. Hays last night.  Kearney drilled Chadron.  Metro had 1,400 at the game.  Big game for the Jacks tonight.

                  #1 Roadrunners De-Claw the Tigers 97-82

                  DENVER; The mens basketball team clinched the RMAC regular season title and extended its nation-leading winning streak to 22 games tonight with a 97-82 victory over Fort Hays State in front of 1,432 fans at the Auraria Events Center. Kendall led the Runner offense with 21 points and posted a career-high eight steals to go with 10 assists. Four other players reached double-figures, including Worthington (17 pts.), Massingale (16 pts.), Morse (15 pts.) and Borgan (11 pts.). Morse also led the team in rebounds with seven. The team as a whole shot .559 (33-59) from the field, including an impressive .615 (8-13) from the three-point arch.

                  We are here to add what we can to life, not get what we can from life. -Sir William Osler

                  We do not see things as they are, we see things as we are.

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Re: D-II Bracketology

                    The men Jacks are going to Denver. The lady Jacks are going to St. Paul. You can take it to the bank. Make your reservations now.

                    Denver in March ain't too bad!

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Re: D-II Bracketology

                      Not so fast. The Kearney game is not a given and there always seem to be unpredictable things happening at there conference tournament which is at in Colorado Springs not Denver.

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Re: D-II Bracketology

                        As everyone knows, I am still holding out hope for the men's team. Women are going to St. Paul and I think this is a good thing. They can beat UND and NDSU on a neutral court. I don't think Concordia gains that much advantage at home.

                        Men must finish the season 4-0 and win both the conference and tourney championship for any chance to host. A loss by Metro would help a bunch. They have already lost to Winona St. and UMD this year, 2 teams that we defeated handily. We have a much better record against teams in the region outside of our conference.

                        There has been a precedent set where a team ranked lower in the region and the nation has been awarded the #1 seed (probably not over the #1 team in the nation, however). I say go UNK and don't count on Metro winning the RMAC tourney.
                        We are here to add what we can to life, not get what we can from life. -Sir William Osler

                        We do not see things as they are, we see things as we are.

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Re: D-II Bracketology

                          Actually, SDSU was awarded a regional over then Fort Hays St. The Tiger were the #1 team in the nation at the time, they may have even been undefeated, but I am not sure about their record (they had hosted the previous two regionals and that was a big factor for the NCAA).

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Re: D-II Bracketology

                            Ft. Hays had one loss going into the regional in 1997.  They  were the reigning national champions, but the regional was filled with NSIC and NCC teams, so the tournament was held in Brookings.  SDSU beat them in the regional final and the Ft. Hays coach was livid about the tourney site selection.  

                            Unless the criteria has changed, I'd like to think it can happen again.  If we get four NSIC and NCC teams into the region and the alternative is either Metro hosting in its small facility or SDSU hosting at Frost, we have a decent chance of getting the regional.  

                            That said, there's a lot of basketball left between now and tourney time.  

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              Re: D-II Bracketology

                              Crashola,

                              Thanks for the assist! I couldn't remember all the details.

                              Go State!

                              Comment

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