I got hold of the entire Massey Ratings final men's basketball rating
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate/cb-m.htm
and did some playing around.
(I know, I need a life).
SDSU finished 2003-04 at #171. We have some interesting company in that tier:
There are any number of very interesting names in this group, and a number of conclusions. First, SDSU probably could have won the NAIA Division I tournament, or at least given it a good run. Second, SDSU is in some very good D-II company. Third, SDSU's 2003-04 team might very well have been around .500 in Division I last year.
Here's where it gets interesting. We all know that we're not going to get many D-I games at home...NDSU, maybe one or two others. For the most part we're probably going to be playing NAIA-type schools in Frost next year. Not many D-I teams are going to want to schedule an away game that won't count as a D-I game. D-II teams don't have a big incentive, either, although Northern or Augie may do it for the paycheck.
With a 28-game schedule, let's say we get 12 home games, and for sake of argument say we go 11-1.
That means 16 road games. I'd hope most of them are against D-I competition, but let's be pessimistic and say we only get 8 D-I games,. This is SDSU we're talking about, so let's say we win 3 of them. That's 14-6.
The remaining 8 games are road contests against D-II and NAIA teams. It seems reasonable that SDSU could win 6 of those 8 games.
20-8.
I'll take that record in Year One of the D-I transition.
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate/cb-m.htm
and did some playing around.
(I know, I need a life).
SDSU finished 2003-04 at #171. We have some interesting company in that tier:
Massey # | School | W | L | Div |
161 | Oral Roberts | 17 | 11 | I |
162 | Wyoming | 11 | 17 | I |
163 | Concordia CA | 30 | 4 | NAIA I |
164 | Ball St | 14 | 15 | I |
165 | Arizona St | 10 | 17 | I |
166 | Hofstra | 14 | 15 | I |
167 | Southern Miss | 13 | 15 | I |
168 | Ark Little Rock | 17 | 12 | I |
169 | Arkansas St | 17 | 11 | I |
170 | Bradley | 15 | 16 | I |
171 | S Dakota St | 27 | 7 | II |
172 | MA Lowell | 28 | 5 | II |
173 | Humboldt St | 27 | 5 | II |
174 | Loy Marymount | 15 | 14 | I |
175 | KY Wesleyan | 22 | 8 | II |
176 | Idaho | 14 | 16 | I |
177 | SF Austin | 21 | 9 | I |
178 | OK Baptist | 29 | 5 | NAIA I |
179 | Marshall | 12 | 17 | I |
180 | Lewis | 24 | 7 | II |
Here's where it gets interesting. We all know that we're not going to get many D-I games at home...NDSU, maybe one or two others. For the most part we're probably going to be playing NAIA-type schools in Frost next year. Not many D-I teams are going to want to schedule an away game that won't count as a D-I game. D-II teams don't have a big incentive, either, although Northern or Augie may do it for the paycheck.
With a 28-game schedule, let's say we get 12 home games, and for sake of argument say we go 11-1.
That means 16 road games. I'd hope most of them are against D-I competition, but let's be pessimistic and say we only get 8 D-I games,. This is SDSU we're talking about, so let's say we win 3 of them. That's 14-6.
The remaining 8 games are road contests against D-II and NAIA teams. It seems reasonable that SDSU could win 6 of those 8 games.
20-8.
I'll take that record in Year One of the D-I transition.
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