Next year

[MontanaRabbit]

Re: Next year

I, for one, am cautiously optimistic for next year. Not for a dominant team that rolls to a regular season summit title, but for a team that finishes in the top 3 and has a decent chance in Sioux Falls to go to the Big Dance.

- Our guard/wing play will be solid. We havent seen Marshall play in an SDSU uniform, but when a guy plays almost 20 minutes as a freshman for a top 20 program in the country I have a hard time believing he wont be an impact Summit league player. Bittle is one of my favorite players to watch and will make a big jump in offensive production next year. Too many options for someone from the Broman, Parks, Severen, Flatten, Donlan, and Tellhuisington(sp?) group not to step up and play some quality minutes.

- Post - Larsen will be solid but really hope he takes another step next year. Would like to see him finish around the basket after usually making pretty solid moves to get a good look at the rim. I'm not worried about Devine. I really like what I saw from him in limited minutes this year and actually thought he should have got more time. I think he is a guy who will continue to develop in to his body each and every year. With that being said, I dont see him playing more than 20-25 minutes with conditioning/foul trouble. Soooooo.......the key for next year is getting 20-25 minutes a game from Daum, Theisen, or Doyle. Just looking at pictures and videos it seems Daum and Theisen have the physical size to potentially play right away. We dont need both to be ready but we do need one ready right away to have a chance next year. If one of these guys steps in and plays really well this team could be much better than people think.

I dont think people should expect a good start next year. New guys in new roles without a probable impact player in Marshall until January is likely to equal quite a few early season losses. Stick with this team though for another shot at the Big Dance.

I agree with everything you posted. Lots of question marks, but the biggest is how do we replace Dykstra. In order to compete we need either Daum, Theisen or Doyle to provide us quality minutes. They won't need to light it up offensively, but they can't be liability while they are on the court.

[3ptJackrabbit]

Re: Next year

Cody's improvement is a must but I expect everyone will see a player who finishes much better next year and get's better angles. The post entry passes displayed by the jacks last year bordered on horrendous most games. A "big" needs to be able to use his body to seal etc and then get a good pass. Too many times last year, the seal was good the pass was bad or vice versa. No reason to think it won't improve next year at all. The guard play though is still the biggest area for improvement. Our guard play was bottom half of the conference this year it needs to improve. I expect our bigs to be fine but in order for a top 3 finish, the guard play has to improve a great deal.

[Kemo]

Re: Next year

My thoughts on next year:

First, let me preface this by saying we will know a lot more about who is going to be getting the minutes after summer workouts. Summer is a time where a college basketball player has the most opportunity to work on their game as an individual, for most of fall practice and the season is focused on team development and preparation for an opponent. This time period can really make or break a player for the upcoming season. I think back to the huge jump Nate Wolters made from freshman to sophomore year, with the alternative being Matt Donlan getting high praise while redshirting, only to get injured and spend the summer rehabbing, which resulted in him not seeing the floor during the season.

With that out of the way, if I had to project a starting line up today, it would be:

PG Deondre Parks (until Marshall is eligible)
SG Jake Bittle
SF Zach Horstman
PF Cody Larson
C Connor Devine

Out of these five, the only real sure things are Larson and Bittle. Horstman will more than liking start, at least at the start of the season, due to him being a senior and coming on strong at the end of this year.

I have Parks pegged at point guard, though I see Broman getting a lot of minutes there as well until Marshall is eligible. Expect the point guard position to have some ups and downs during the first semester, as Parks and Broman are really combo guards where as Marshall is a true point. However, this may help in the long run, as it'll develop a backup PG so Marshall shouldn't have to play 40 minutes a game come conference play.

I know some are questioning whether Parks will be ready to contribute, but I fully expect him to be. Junior college players aren't brought in as projects, for their purpose is usually to act as "stop-gaps" for positions that lack experience, especially in a program like Nagy's, who rarely brings in JuCos. Parks will certainly be making a jump in competition, but it is a significantly smaller hurdle coming from Juco as a 21 year old as opposed from high school as an 18 year old. Age is such an important factor here as well, as the physical and mental maturity between an 18 year old and a 21 year old can be ridiculous. I see the biggest adjustment for Parks being establishing and adjusting to his role on the team, which unfortunately will probably change mid season.

I'd really like to see Broman come off the bench this year and be told his job is to aggressively look for scoring opportunities for himself when on the floor with Marshall or Parks. Having a defined role that requires him to be assertive could do wonders for the kid, as he looked his best when he played without a conscience and looked out of his element in a more passive role on the offensive end.

I have Devine starting at the 5 spot because I really like what I saw from him in limited minutes this year. In years past, Devine would have probably been starting as a redshirt freshman (or would have not redshirted at all), but he just had the misfortune of being behind 3 upperclassmen and getting so sick he lost 20 lbs mid year, which is next to impossible for a guy his build to regain during the season. Even if he doesn't start, I see him getting at least 20 minutes a game and being a major contributor. Post players generally make their biggest leap between their 2nd and 3rd year in a college program, and I anticipate this will be case with Connor as well. I think a lot of opposing teams and their fans will be like "where the hell did this guy come from?" next year.

If Connor doesn't start, I just don't see Horstman playing the 4 position, as Nagy only did that out of necessity in our DI infancy and it's more than apparent that, once he got the players, that he wants to have two posts out on the floor if possible. So if it's not Devine out there with Larson, I'd predict it will be one of the true freshman, Daum or Theisen, playing as a stretch 4. I think one of these two will redshirt while the other sees a fair amount of playing time as a true freshman. Until I at least hear some feedback from summer workouts, I'll go on a limb and say it'll be Mike Daum who sees the floor next year due to his game having some resemblance to that of Jordan Dykstra, which will help make up for the physicality gap an 18 year old faces against 21/22 year old posts since he can pull them away from the basket or force the opposing team to guard him with a smaller player. That being said, Theisen is capable of filling that role as well, for his shot is more than respectable (he hit one of the most clutch jumpers in Minnesota state history as a sophomore, which won Osseo a state championship), plus he did face a higher level of competition (highest level of high school ball in MN) than Daum did on a regular basis. I'm simply leaning toward Daum because I think he is more of a pure 3 point shooter, where as Theisen is closer to a combination of Tony Fiegen and Cody Larson, and his game will require him to mix it up more down low, which can be a tough task for a true freshman. If both of them end up see the floor as true freshman, that doesn't bode well for Logan Doyle, as that probably means he isn't as far along as the coaches had hoped.

The 2/3 spots on the floor (they are basically interchangeable in the motion offense), after Bittle and Horstman, I don't think we'll have an idea how the coaches will fill those minutes until after the summer. One has to keep in mind that the two players who'll be handling the point guard duties at the beginning of the year (Parks/Broman) are combo guards, so they'll be more than likely seeing some time at the 2 spot. We've heard some good things about Flatten and Severyn, but who knows how much playing time and how much they will contribute until roles start getting established. Donlan could just as easily realize his potential over the offseason as he could be no longer with the team by seasons beginning/end. Reed Tellinghausen could be a wild card as well. Most think he'll redshirt (myself included) due to the log jam at the 2/3 spots, but he has crazy ability and if he proves to be better than the redshirt freshman/ upperclassmen, Coach Nagy isn't going to worry about hurting some players' feelings and will play Reed over them. Probably the most sure I am of anything regarding the 2/3 is there will be some attrition there either before or after this upcoming season, which isn't always a bad thing if handled properly because it'll create fierce competition for these minutes and really push the players in the offseason.

My conclusion on next year: In the words of Nate Wolters, "It's going to be a lot of fun."

We have a lot of question marks, but we have a lot of talent who will be trying to answer those questions. Many opposing Division I coaches felt these player we have coming up could contribute for their teams, as I'm quite positive this SDSU team will have the most "other DI offers" in program history, so ability shouldn't be on of those question marks. I, for one, am very excited to see how it all pans out.

[OldHare]

Re: Next year

Kemo; You have put some thought into this prediction. It all looks good until you move Larson out of the post. If Devine starts, I would guess him at the 4. I agree that the red shirt freshman or true freshman get more minutes at the 4. I believe that the new recruits are continually becoming better and we should expect to see the younger men competing for more minutes. There should be enough talent to be optimistic for a top3 finish.

[Kemo]

Re: Next year

Kemo; You have put some thought into this prediction. It all looks good until you move Larson out of the post. If Devine starts, I would guess him at the 4.

I just put Larson at the 4 and Devine at the 5 because Connor was an inch taller, but the numbers are arbitrary because they will both be posts and will do the majority of their work between the block and the free throw line. Think of it more of how Heemstra and Larson worked together when on the floor at the same time rather than Dykstra and Larson.

When I mention a "stretch 4," that just means that the post player will extend farther than the free throw line when working their off-the-ball action because they are a threat from beyond the arch. There are other intricacies like if a more traditional posts pops out beyond the arch it is usually to reverse the ball, help out a guard who lost his dribble, or set a ball screen, while a stretch 4 will do those things too, but also pop out looking for a shot. Plus there are other things such as a traditional post will roll to the basket most of the time after setting a ball screen where as a stretch 4s is more likely to pop out to get an open three pointer.

What I'm trying to say is, in our offense, that off-the-ball action and positioning a post player looks for is based off what type of player he is, not whether they are playing the 4 or the 5. They both will work from the block out, but how far out they work is dependent on their strengths and weaknesses.

[OldHare]

Re: Next year

I would peg Larson the 5 since he will likely draw the defensive chore of the opposing team big man like an IPFW Forbes or NDSU Kading. The second reason is that he has not shown a lot of range for his outside shot to be that "stretch 4". He shoots free throws well, but I do not recall many outside shots from Cody. If Devine can provide the stretch, that will be great.... but I still look at one of the new guys(as you do too) to work into that stretch 4 position as well.

[SUPERBUNNY]

Re: Next year

Lots of interesting perspectives on next year! Most of which seem very positive.

I'm very excited to have Bittle, Horstman, and Larson going into next year. Bittle showed he is a difference maker when healthy. Probably more on the defensive end than offensively but a factor at both ends. That is huge! We need him to be a leader next year. Horstmann showed some really solid play at the end of the year. If he stays healthy he will be a force. He is very physical (maybe why he has been oft injured) and tough and we need that. Offensively he showed he is more comfortable. Larson is the one that I have big hopes for. He made a big impact this year especially on the defensive. If he can refine his offensive game he is a possible POY candidate.

Defensively we will be fine. I'm worried about the offensive end. Obviously, we lose a huge part of our offensive output in Carlson and Dykstra. We've got guys that can hit jump shots. My concern is that we don't have a lot of guys that seem to be able to create a shot for themselves. It's important to have both. Bittle can make it happen. Horstmann has shown some ability there. Broman needs to improve his quickness. He's proven he has a touch. Marshall will be a big plus in that area when he becomes available. You just don't know what the redshirts or the freshman are going to bring to the table. The coaches know what is going on and what roles they need to fill and they seem pretty fired up about all of the guys that are coming.

It may be another season similar to this one. We had to get used to life without Nate. Next year we have to get used to life without 4 other quality seniors. Guess what? A year from now we will do it all over again. I'm excited about where the program is headed. We are competing well, having success at recruiting, and there is an expectation that we will be in the mix for the Summit title. That's the way it should be for Jackrabbit Men's Basketball.

SUPERBUNNY

[Kemo]

Re: Next year

I would peg Larson the 5 since he will likely draw the defensive chore of the opposing team big man like an IPFW Forbes or NDSU Kading. The second reason is that he has not shown a lot of range for his outside shot to be that "stretch 4". He shoots free throws well, but I do not recall many outside shots from Cody. If Devine can provide the stretch, that will be great.... but I still look at one of the new guys(as you do too) to work into that stretch 4 position as well.

Just to clarify, what I've been saying is that, when Larson and Devine play together, we won't have a "stretch 4" on the floor. Both are more traditional posts that will be trying to get position on the block as much as possible and when they do extend, it usually won't be much beyond 12 feet.

Stretch 4 is a type of player, not an actual position.

[OldHare]

Re: Next year

Just to clarify, what I've been saying is that, when Larson and Devine play together, we won't have a "stretch 4" on the floor. Both are more traditional posts that will be trying to get position on the block as much as possible and when they do extend, it usually won't be much beyond 12 feet.

Stretch 4 is a type of player, not an actual position.

After Jordan Dykstra, I would expect someone would try to fill that spot part of the time. Heemstra could make quite a few of those 12-15 foot shots. The early book on Daum is that he can shoot from outside. We should have plenty of depth available at the 4 & 5 spots. If my memory is correct, Dykstra, White, and Carlson were all contributing as freshman and the Jackrabbits were turning the corner to the top half of the league vs. the bottom. I am not sure if it was their freshman year that the Jackrabbits finally won a couple of road games or Nate's freshman year. Next year should see transfers and/or freshmen make big contributions.

[filbert]

Re: Next year

I could see a two-post hi-lo offense with Larson down low and Devine high. I say that because it looks to me like Devine maybe has a better shot from mid-range out than Larson has shown. Plus, Larson's just stockier than Devine is, and IMHO probably better able to physically bang for position down low, where on the other hand Devine's height can affect shots all the way out to the 3 point line.

Just a thought . . .

[Southeast]

Re: Next year

[QUOTE=OldHare;251681] The early book on Daum is that he can shoot from outside. QUOTE]

True. Daum made 69 of 173 3-pointers this season, setting a school record for 3-pt shooting percentage. I can't find Theisen's stats, but he sounds like a shooter also. ESPN says, "Theisen is a pick-and-pop 5/4 who possesses a prolific shooting touch out to 20-feet." You are not going to get that from Larson, Devine, or Doyle. Larson probably should not even be shooting from 8' away.

Daum's stats
http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/mich...htm#year=13-14

[Theee Catrabbit]

Re: Next year

I actually started this thread out of curiousity and concern. Now I feel pretty good. Thanks. We're going to be ok.

[mitchell]

Re: Next year

My thoughts on next year's rotation.

PG - SR Marshall
SG - JR Parks
SF - JR Bittle
PF - RFR Doyle
C - SR Larson

The top 3 off the bench:
PG/SG - SO Broman
SG/SF/PF - SR Horstman
PF/C - SO Devine

The question marks are:
whether freshamn posts Daum or Theisen will leapfrog Doyle or Devine.
whether Flatten will leapfrog Broman
Whether Severyn will leapfrog Horstman

There's alot of youth in the post, but my biggest concern is who will backup at the point. I don't feel it's Broman's natural position. Bittle has obviously ran the point before, but it's not his strong suit either. I remember Nagy saying that Flatten has the ability to play some point, but I doubt we'll see him there very often.

From everything I've read, I wouldn't be surprised if Parks is in the top 3 in Summit League scoring next season.

While Devine won't be Jordan Dykstra, I wouldn't be surprised if he plays some 4 next season and shoots the 3-Ball fairly well.

[jacks1]

Re: Next year

While Devine won't be Jordan Dykstra, I wouldn't be surprised if he plays some 4 next season and shoots the 3-Ball fairly well.

Huh? Devine....shooting 3's?

[OldHare]

Re: Next year

It is the same question for the next year as last year. who will be the point? No one really had Carlson there. I would give more odds as Bittle being a fill-in at point before I see him as the SF. There is too much talent and depth for the 3 position vs the point. Parks may get minutes or Bittle may get minutes there. Whoever plays point will have the trust of Coach Nagy. Marshall may march into the position at the end of the first semester, but I think the first part of the season will find the backup point and if Parks should excel as a scorer at this level, he may push Bittle to a SF. It is a reach, but it is possible. If Horstman continues with his improvement and remains healthy, it will be hard to push him to the bench. The freshman/rsfreshmen will have some ability to fill the 4 and backup 3. If Devine moves to 4, then we will need a backup for Larson. Larson and Devine could split the post most games. The IPFW Forbes days may require more beef to back up.