11/16 FCS Polls

[rabidrabbit]

Re: 11/16 FCS Polls

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/foru...ad.php?t=66292

GPI has Jacks #10

[Chains]

Re: 11/16 FCS Polls

12,500 tickets at $20 a pop is still $250,000 in gate receipts.

It may be dissapointing attendance for us, but its still better than alot of the schools in the running.

Think a 100K bid would be enough to get a game?

First things first. 1-0 this Saturday or you can plan on having Thanksgiving at home with the team.

Secondly, the number of events that would have to occur for the Jacks to host a home game are huge. By a lotto ticket your chances are better.

Third. It all comes down to MONEY. SDSU simply cannot compete with Montana, Montana St, McNeese etc.

If your planning on watching the Jacks live in the playoffs pack your bags as we will be traveling.

GBGBGJ

[AugieJackFan]

Re: 11/16 FCS Polls

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/foru...ad.php?t=66292

GPI has Jacks #10

Great West Conference is 3rd? To me that conference is a bunch of meidocre teams with .500 records. Did one ore more of them beat FBS teams or something? Obviously I'm missing something I don't see them as the 3rd best FCS conference or even in the top half of FCS. I've seen most of the teams play and wasn't impressed with any of them. No defense whatsoever.

[JACKGUYII]

Re: 11/16 FCS Polls

10th in the power rankings this week. UNI is 7th.

Cal Poly going in the tank is really kicking our @$$ in the power department.

CSN has the Jacks as a lock to be in the playoffs with a win vs. WIU and a no way with a loss.

I know Stig is not into rolling up the score, but it may not be a bad idea this week given the opportunity.

As far as home games go. UNI Dome holds around 16,500 I think. I presume they bid off a sellout. The Jacks can't bank on 16,500 on Thanksgiving weekend. They can bank on my two tickets plus a multitude of others who have asked if I can get them playoff tickets through my season tickets if the Jacks get a home game. I have no idea what I would expect for a crowd on Thanksgiving weekend, 12,500?

I'm not so sure about UNI counting on a playoff sellout. Here are their attendence figures from last years home playoff games:
2008
Maine November 29th 8,477
New Hampshire Dec 1 9,055
Richmond Dec 13 12,062

SDSU had better average attendence this year with 13,265 to UNI's 12,969. Justin Sell has been to this rodeo before and will know how to handle the bid process.

[Jacks-02]

Re: 11/16 FCS Polls

First things first. 1-0 this Saturday or you can plan on having Thanksgiving at home with the team.

Secondly, the number of events that would have to occur for the Jacks to host a home game are huge. By a lotto ticket your chances are better.

Third. It all comes down to MONEY. SDSU simply cannot compete with Montana, Montana St, McNeese etc.

If your planning on watching the Jacks live in the playoffs pack your bags as we will be traveling.

GBGBGJ

SDSU is 17th in the nation in average attendance and there aren't many teams higher than us that won't be either seeded and gauranteed home games or won't make the playoffs.

http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/2009/Intern...ATTENDANCE.pdf

I'm not saying its a sure thing by any means, but I don't think its as far a reach as some are saying either.

All things said, we still need to take care of WIU this weekend.

[jackmd]

Re: 11/16 FCS Polls

I'm not so sure about UNI counting on a playoff sellout. Here are their attendence figures from last years home playoff games:
2008
Maine November 29th 8,477
New Hampshire Dec 1 9,055
Richmond Dec 13 12,062

SDSU had better average attendence this year with 13,265 to UNI's 12,969. Justin Sell has been to this rodeo before and will know how to handle the bid process.

Excellent post. How soon people forget what attendance use to be like. To be critical of a crowd greater than 10,000 in November at SDSU is a little bit naive if I might be allowed to say so. I didn't think most playoff games at the FCS level drew more that 10,000. If you take into consideration head-to-head match-ups we should host ahead of UNI regardless of GPI and the selection committee does look at h2h. As an example of some of the things that could happen, McNeese has Central Arkansas this weekend and that is a tough game. I'm not expecting SDSU to host a playoff game but I think its a possibility. The fear about not being selected for the playoffs needs to be placed aside and the task at hand completed, a victory over WIU.

P.S. UNI will not be selling out a playoff game because they won't be hosting one. If they did host one they wouldn't get more than 12,000. (I think)

[SDSU_TUBA]

Re: 11/16 FCS Polls

I'm not sure of the TV schedule for the FCS football playoffs. Are all the games on TV? Of course that could take a bite out of the attendance figures.

NCAA TV Broadcast Schedule Day Broadcast Date Broadcast Time (ET) Network Network Attribute Status Description
Sunday 11/22/2009 3:00 PM (approx.) ESPNEWS Live Division I Football Selection Announcement (16 teams)
Saturday 11/28/2009 TBA NCAA.com Live Division I Football First Round - TEAMS TBA
Saturday 11/28/2009 TBA NCAA.com Live Division I Football First Round - TEAMS TBA
Saturday 11/28/2009 NOON ESPNU HD Live Division I Football First Round - TEAMS TBA
Saturday 12/05/2009 NOON ESPN Syndication / Gameplan / ESPN 360 Live Division I Football Quarterfinal # 1 - TEAMS TBD
Saturday 12/05/2009 2:00 PM ESPN Syndication / Gameplan / ESPN 360 Live Division I Football Quarterfinal # 2 - TEAMS TBD
Saturday 12/05/2009 3:30 PM ESPN Syndication / Gameplan / ESPN 360 Live Division I Football Quarterfinal # 3 - TEAMS TBD
Saturday 12/05/2009 7:00 PM ESPN Syndication / Gameplan / ESPN 360 Live Division I Football Quarterfinal # 4 - TEAMS TBD
Friday 12/11/2009 8:00 PM ESPN2 / ESPN 360 Simulcast HD Live Division I Football Semifinal # 1 - TEAMS TBD
Saturday 12/12/2009 4:00 PM ESPN / ESPN 360 Simulcast HD Live Division I Football Semifinal # 2 - TEAMS TBD
Friday 12/18/2009 8:00 PM ESPN2 / ESPN 360 Simulcast HD Live Division I Football Final - TEAMS TBD

ESPN has the right of first refusal on televising games and then other outlets get the chance for broadcasting them. They will pick one game from the first round and put it on ESPNU (will be two east coast teams starting at 11am CT), the rest can then the picked up by other outlets, like a KSFY or maybe a FSN. I'm not sure if all but the ESPNU first round game will be on NCAA.com or not, they just have 2 listed. If not the host school will webcast (every school does that right?) it free (can't charge for tournament games).

[Jacks-02]

Re: 11/16 FCS Polls

Here is the top 20 in GPI and their attendance rank.

Looks like best case for us is for Montana to beat MSU to knock them out and get a seed and having Villanova lose to give App. State a chance at a seed. There are 4 non-seeded home games available and it appears our competition (based on attendances only) for hosting is Northern Iowa, Appalachian St., S. Carolina St., McNeese St., Liberty, and SFA.

My guess is that Villanova, Southern Illinois, Montana, and Appalachian St. get seeds with Richmond/WM, McNeese/SFA, SDSU/UNI, and SC St./Elon getting the other 4 home games.

1. Villanova (1.50) 42ND (LIKELY SEED)
2. S Illinois (3.13) 35TH (LIKELY SEED)
3. Richmond (3.25) 41ST (POSSIBLE SEED IF VILLANOVA LOSES)
4. William & Mary (3.63) 34TH (POSSIBLE SEED IF VILLANOVA LOSES)
5. Montana (3.88) 1ST (LIKELY SEED)
6. Appalachian St (6.13) 2ND (POSSIBLE SEED WITH HELP)
7. Northern Iowa (8.13) 19TH (LIKELY IN PLAYOFFS)
8. Elon (9.38) 37TH (LIKELY IN PLAYOFFS)
9. New Hampshire (10.00) 46TH (LIKELY IN PLAYOFFS)
10. S Dakota St (10.25) 17TH
11. E Washington (12.88) 71ST (OUTSIDE LOOKING IN FOR PLAYOFFS)
12. S Carolina St (14.88) 5TH (POSSIBLE SEED WITH ALOT OF HELP)
13. Jacksonville St (15.00) 23RD (PROBABLY MISS PLAYOFFS)
14. Weber St (15.50) 55TH (PROBABLY MISS PLAYOFFS)
15. McNeese St (15.63) 14TH (LIKELY IN PLAYOFFS)
16. SF Austin (16.00) 25TH (LIKELY IN PLAYOFFS)
17. Liberty (16.25) 11TH (POSSIBLY IN PLAYOFFS)
18. James Madison (18.00) 10TH (NO PLAYOFFS)
19. Delaware (18.25) 3RD (NO PLAYOFFS)
20. Montana St (19.63) 20TH (HAVE TO BEAT MONTANA)

[zooropa]

Re: 11/16 FCS Polls

attendance will really depend on weather.

Plus: this is an el nino year: means better than average weather for SD.
Minus: tail end of November (like the tail end of May) doesn't usually have the best weather

[SDSU_TUBA]

Re: 11/16 FCS Polls

Attendance for the first round (Thanksgiving Weekend) is usually pretty low, look at last year:

Villianova 4489
Richmond 2994
Cal Poly 6919
#1 James Madison 12862
#3 UNI 8447
SIU 5461
#2 App St 13712
#4 Montana 19489

Its hard to guess attendance with students gone and people already having plans for the holiday. If we get a home game I'll be there...

[Kemo]

Re: 11/16 FCS Polls

Help me understand why you think UNI would have a home game if we don't? If its a matter of outbidding us you might have something but from my discussions with those in the Athletic Department precedent will hold. In other words, we have made competitive bids in the past in other sports and I expect we will do the same here.

I am not saying there is no chance we get a first round game, but I think the odds are definitely stacked against us.

Since only the top 4 are seeded, it doesn't matter if we are ranked higher in the polls/power ranking than Northern Iowa or not, as it will come down to the bid.

The teams in our area we will likely square off against are either McNeese State, Stephen F. Austin, Montana, or Eastern Illinois (Note: we can not face Northern Iowa in the first round due to being in the same conference)... so lets break it down.

All But Guarenteed a Home Game in this Region
Montana: guaranteed a first round game even if they slip up this weekend against Montana State, as they are #1 in attendance (25,652/game) and will either be seeded or will outbid everyone.

McNeese State: likely to be in this year's playoffs and are #14 in attendance (13,858/game), and due to their attendance figures and the fact that they play in a warmer climate, they will be likely not be traveling in the first round if they make the final cut.

Southern Illinois: unless they lose to a 2-8 Southeast Missouri State team this weekend, they'll be seeded in the top 4 and guaranteed a home game.

Regional Teams that are in (assuming they win this weekend)
Stephen F. Austin: They are actually in regardless of the outcome of their game this weekend, as they have locked up the Southland Conference autobid. They will likely be on the road however, and since McNeese St is in their conference, they won't be going there. I would guess that they will be the most likely to go to Montana, as historically Montana plays a Southland team in the first round.

Eastern Illinois: From what I hear the traditional first round match up is usually EIU and SIU if both make it to the dance, as they are close in proximity and are in different conferences. I'll pencil this one in now.

Northern Iowa: Our biggest competitor for a first round home game, as we need to outbid them in order to get a home game in my opinion. Even though we averaged 296 more fans than they did this year, they have some significant advantages over us, one being that they play in a dome (which means weather is less likely to affect attendance) and they have a playoff tradition. To me, that means if we are to bid equal or less than UNI, they'll get the home game over the Jacks. Our saving grace in this situation may be that our athletic director, Justin Sell, is familiar with both the bidding process and how UNI bids.

South Dakota State University: We will be new to the playoffs and shouldn't expect any favors from the NCAA (see NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament 2009). I explained most of our problems in the UNI section, but there is a little more to add: We could get lucky and have the committee send a few low bidding east coast teams to both SDSU and UNI, but once again I am not expecting the NCAA to do us "newbies" any favors. Hopefully we can throw out a high enough bid for them to consider this option, but I just have a bad feeling we are going to be sent to McNeese State.

West Coast Wild Cards (these guys could mess up everything I just said)
Eastern Washington: They have an outside chance of making the playoffs if a favored team stumbles in the last week, but I believe if there are no upsets they will be on the outside looking in. If they do sneak in (due to an upset victory by someone other than Western Illinois ), we may be in better shape of hosting a first round game.

Montana State: (yes I know they technically aren't on the west coast) I could see this team sneak in the playoffs if they pull off the upset against Montana this weekend, which like Eastern Washington, could change a few first round playoff venues.


...and there you have it: my unorganized train of thought on what I think could happen regarding the playoffs!

[jackmd]

Re: 11/16 FCS Polls

Attendance for the first round (Thanksgiving Weekend) is usually pretty low, look at last year:

Villianova 4489
Richmond 2994
Cal Poly 6919
#1 James Madison 12862
#3 UNI 8447
SIU 5461
#2 App St 13712
#4 Montana 19489

Its hard to guess attendance with students gone and people already having plans for the holiday. If we get a home game I'll be there...

Thanks for the ground work. I knew the numbers were not great. Keep in mind App. State and Montana both average 25,000 per game during the regular season.

10,000 fans is a huge number at this level and should be recognized as that. Nice work by the athletic department, now the fans need to take it to the next level.

[SDSU_TUBA]

Re: 11/16 FCS Polls

I'd guess Montana will get a seed win or lose this weekend, a 10-1 Montana will almost always get a seed. SIU will get one too along with the winner of the Richmond/William & Mary game Saturday. If Villianova loses to Delaware then App St will get the other seed.

[sfjacksfan99]

Re: 11/16 FCS Polls

I'm not so sure about UNI counting on a playoff sellout. Here are their attendence figures from last years home playoff games:
2008
Maine November 29th 8,477
New Hampshire Dec 1 9,055
Richmond Dec 13 12,062

SDSU had better average attendence this year with 13,265 to UNI's 12,969. Justin Sell has been to this rodeo before and will know how to handle the bid process.

Nice post with the research. Those numbers are staggering to me on how UNI and the prognoticators are handing them a home game. Maybe they bid in knowledge they are going to lose money and are going to accept it as the UNI Dome is a beeeaaaach to play at and they are confident in the win and that's more important. Heck the Richmond game was a semifinal. I don't give a hoot what the weather's like, if SDSU was in the semis with a home game, count me in!

And yes, with Sell as a right hand man at UNI, very beneficial. His hire looks like an absolute slam dunk in my eyes in the first 6 months.

[Kemo]

Re: 11/16 FCS Polls

...for you peoples that want a better on how the playoff system works, read this College Sporting News article.