2023 MVFC Season

[RahRahRabbits]

While I'm not ready for summer to be over, football season is now nearly upon us, to which I say - hallelujah! As discussed a bit in the MVFC sub-section, there's a bit of scheduling disparity this year. According to end of last years' Sagarin ratings* (disclaimer below), even though the Jacks were the undisputed best team in FCS last year, and we don't play ourselves on this year's schedule (let's keep it that way... no games we beat ourselves please!), we have the toughest conference schedule amongst anyone in the Valley. That's what happens when we don't play the bottom 3 teams in the league I reckon!

Sag.Rating --- School
41 - South Dakota State
71 - North Dakota State
106 - Northern Iowa
123 - Southern Illinois
127 - North Dakota
138 - Youngstown State
139 - Missouri State
158 - Illinois State
161 - South Dakota
191 - Indiana State
210 - Western Illinois
232 - Murray State

AVG MVFC Opponent Sag Rating
127.9 - South Dakota State
134.4 - Northern Iowa
134.5 - Western Illinois
134.9 - Missouri State
138.5 - Murray State
141.6 - South Dakota
142.4 - North Dakota State
143.9 - Youngstown State
146.3 - North Dakota
147.9 - Southern Illinois
148.0 - Illinois State
156.9 - Indiana State

*I know Sagarin ratings are not perfect, and inherently using the results from end of last year is flawed analysis before it even gets started... but for the most part Sagarin ratings get the point across in a somewhat accurate way without letting bias take over... and at this point, and pre-season poll is a SWAG anyways... silly wild-a** guess. Take it or leave it I guess.

Below is total miles traveled (as the Jackrabbit runs), for both in-conference and total --- though not counting the xDSU's games in Minneapolis. Three total trips over 1000 miles in one shot: WIU has a couple long trips to New Mexico State and Southern Utah, and UNI to Idaho State. --- Potentially interesting/fun fact - UNI plays all four D1 ISU's on the year, all away games even - at Iowa State, at Idaho State, at Indiana State, and at Illinois State. That can't happen to anyone very often...

Conf (Total) Miles Traveled
1185 ( 2266 ) - Northern Iowa
1232 ( 1396 ) - Indiana State
1315 ( 1315 ) - North Dakota State
1501 ( 3769 ) - Western Illinois
1501 ( 1584 ) - Illinois State
1553 ( 1879 ) - Southern Illinois
1729 ( 2087 ) - South Dakota
1744 ( 2158 ) - Missouri State
1939 ( 2905 ) - North Dakota
2006 ( 2305 ) - Murray State
2032 ( 2032 ) - South Dakota State
2346 ( 2492 ) - Youngstown State

[RahRahRabbits]

P5 (P4?) OOC games for the Valley:
Sept 02 / Week 1 - Missouri State at Kansas, UNI at Iowa State, USD at Mizzou
Sept 09 / Week 2 - Indiana State at Indiana, Murray State at Louisville, Youngstown State at Ohio State

G5 OOC games for the Valley:
Sept 02 / Week 1 - Western Illinois at New Mexico State
Sept 09 / Week 2 - Southern Illinois at Northern Illinois
Sept 16 / Week 3 - Indiana State at Ball State, Murray State at Middle Tennessee, UND at Boise State

Sag.Rating --- School (P5 bolded) - See disclaimer in above post.
3 - Ohio State
23 - Louisville
42 - Iowa State
52 - Boise State
56 - Kansas
58 - Mizzou
86 - Indiana
115 - Ball State
117 - Middle Tennessee
133 - Northern Illinois
136 - New Mexico State

Other interesting OOC games:
Sept 02 / Week 1 - Southern Illinois vs Austin Peay (151)
Sept 09 / Week 2 - Jacks vs Montana State (80)
Sept 16 / Week 3 - UNI vs Weber State (98), Southern Illinois at Southeast Missouri State (140)

[RahRahRabbits]

Not a very exciting week/weekend for the Valley. I believe the only big surprises were in general, teams underperforming expectations.

Above expected:
- Southern Illinois taking respectable Austin Peay (7-4 last year in the WAC-ASUN, now UAC - United Athletic Conference) to the woodshed, up 42-3 going into the 4th, but then giving up 20 in the 4th to make the game look closer, 49-23.

- Missouri State was actually hanging around the now-respectable Jayhawks, only down 17-10 at half, and 27-17 early in the 4th quarter, before three quick touchdowns for Kansas put the game away decisively. Not sure what to make of the Bears, final score was ugly, but they held their own for awhile in this game.

As expected:
- Youngstown, Illinois State, UND, and Murray State all played Pioneer League teams finding themselves in the bottom 20 of all of Division 1 football. And playing the worst team in all of the FCS, Presbyterian, can even make Murray State look competent at football! If you don't beat these teams by 30+, you've embarrassed yourselves (looking at you, Grizzlies...) Our week-3 opponent, Drake, got slobber knocked by the F'in Hawks 55-7, being outgained 652-332 yards. Schuster went 22-26 for 262 yards and 3 TD. It will be interesting how UND fares against a solid team, and outside of the Alerus Center.

- USD hung around Missouri, but never very competitively. Perhaps they made it a closer game than it could have been, but being down 28-3 in the second half is something that usually can't be recovered from... Unless you're the 2017 Patriots led by Tom Brady himself I guess.

- Western Illinois could have had a much worse games against New Mexico State, only down two scores going into the 4th. The Aggies certainly aren't a powerhouse, as they'd likely be ranked around 15-20 if they were tossed in the FCS rankings... but the Leathernecks gave them a pretty good 3 quarters.

- NDSU did NDSU things. Got the W in a clean, rush-dominant game. Perhaps they're trying to do their best Bobcat impression though - as backup QB Cole Payton and starter Cam Miller were the #1 and 3 rushers on the day.

Below expected:

- Lowly Indiana State somehow got shutout 27-0 by a bad Eastern Illinois team, not giving much hope for the bottom tier of the Valley.

- Northern Iowa disappointed nearly everyone I think - as we all expected them to give Iowa State more trouble, especially with all their gambling suspensions. They lost 30-9, but were being shutout 30-0 before the Cyclones took their foot off the gas. Panther's QB Theo Day had a rough day, going 16/34 for 164 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INT. Surprisingly, UNI actually outgained Iowa State 279-250 total, and were fairly even in both ground and air attacks. Iowa State had a pick-six, a 7-play 21-yard TD drive, and a free FG off another interception seconds before half. 15 total punts in the game between both teams, and at one point five-straight 3-and-outs in the middle of 7 straight punts. Woof.


WEEK 2:

Biggest game in all of FCS this week is of course Montana State coming back to Brookings. Southern Illinois playing FBS-G5 (MAC) Northern Illinois could be an interesting game if the Salukis show up. UNI vs Weber could be close, depending on which team shows up for either side, as well as Missouri State and Univ of Tennessee - Martin.

It's too bad our bottom Valley teams are actually getting P5 shots - Indiana State at Indiana, and Murray State at Louisville. Neither should be close games. I'd love a shot at both Louisville and Indiana, both are very beatable for a good FCS team. Youngstown State isn't a bottom team, but going to Ohio State probably won't go well for them either.

My Week 2 Predictions:
Murray State at FBS-P5 Louisville
Indiana State at FBS-P5 Indiana
#25 Youngstown State at FBS-P5(#3 FBS) Ohio State
South Dakota vs. RV St. Thomas - Hopefully St. Thomas losing to a mediocre MVFC team shuts the door on any more receiving votes for a Pioneer league team...
#2 North Dakota State vs. Maine
#24 Southern Illinois at FBS-G5 Northern Illinois - Close
Illinois State at Western Illinois (Conference game)
#17 North Dakota vs Northern Arizona
#21 Northern Iowa vs#12 Weber State - Close - Weber beat Central Washington 35-10 this week, but only up 14-10 at half. CWU is the single local conference-mate to Western Oregon in DII Lone Star Conf. I think Northern Iowa figures out their dumb mistakes here, and gets things clicking. If the Panthers win, that should shake up the middle part of the FCS rankings pretty good.
Missouri State at RV UT Martin - Close
#1 South Dakota State vs #3 Montana State - Close

Looking ahead - depending on how the visitors look this week, I'm tentatively putting NDSU on upset alert hosting Central Arkansas in week 3. The matched up against Oklahoma State nearly toe-to-toe statistically, and were only trailing 13-7 going into the 4th. They're receiving votes in this week's STATS poll. It's obviously very difficult for anyone to take a W away from the Fargodome... so this is awfully unlikely still... but as coach Danny O'Shea would tell you... it only takes one time!

[jakejc795]

My Week 2 Predictions:
Murray State at FBS-P5 Louisville
Indiana State at FBS-P5 Indiana
#25 Youngstown State at FBS-P5(#3 FBS) Ohio State
South Dakota vs. RV St. Thomas - Hopefully St. Thomas losing to a mediocre MVFC team shuts the door on any more receiving votes for a Pioneer league team...
#2 North Dakota State vs. Maine
#24 Southern Illinois at FBS-G5 Northern Illinois - Close
Illinois State at Western Illinois (Conference game)
#17 North Dakota vs Northern Arizona
#21 Northern Iowa vs#12 Weber State - Close - Weber beat Central Washington 35-10 this week, but only up 14-10 at half. CWU is the single local conference-mate to Western Oregon in DII Lone Star Conf. I think Northern Iowa figures out their dumb mistakes here, and gets things clicking. If the Panthers win, that should shake up the middle part of the FCS rankings pretty good.
Missouri State at RV UT Martin - Close
#1 South Dakota State vs #3 Montana State - Close

Looking ahead - depending on how the visitors look this week, I'm tentatively putting NDSU on upset alert hosting Central Arkansas in week 3. The matched up against Oklahoma State nearly toe-to-toe statistically, and were only trailing 13-7 going into the 4th. They're receiving votes in this week's STATS poll. It's obviously very difficult for anyone to take a W away from the Fargodome... so this is awfully unlikely still... but as coach Danny O'Shea would tell you... it only takes one time!

Hoping Maine upsets Bison this week exploiting thin secondary and LB depth and that the game vs. 'Cats isn't as close as you think it'll be. I'd like to have at least a two-TD victory for Jacks with the game never in doubt.

[RahRahRabbits]

Hoping Maine upsets Bison this week exploiting thin secondary and LB depth and that the game vs. 'Cats isn't as close as you think it'll be. I'd like to have at least a two-TD victory for Jacks with the game never in doubt.

I'm not sure you know this or not... but the only reason we beat them last year was because we intentionally iced the field, and I-90 to keep their throngs of fans at bay! While it shouldn't be 90 degrees... still gonna be hard to keep it icy this go round...

I should have noted, my "Close" designation was any game with a Sagarin rating difference of 25 or less. My history of giving score predictions is not very strong, so I tend to stay away from such things as I will really only guarantee looking like a fool!

[jakejc795]

I'm not sure you know this or not... but the only reason we beat them last year was because we intentionally iced the field, and I-90 to keep their throngs of fans at bay! While it shouldn't be 90 degrees... still gonna be hard to keep it icy this go round...

I should have noted, my "Close" designation was any game with a Sagarin rating difference of 25 or less. My history of giving score predictions is not very strong, so I tend to stay away from such things as I will really only guarantee looking like a fool!

Yeah, I was there, so I experienced the treacherous conditions. What we lack in ice, we can counter with noise, and I'm hoping the Jacks fan who was telling their punt team to assemble on 2nd down is in "playoff form" again

[RahRahRabbits]

Week 2 MVFC games got underway last night. Murray State met all expectations by losing 56-0 to Louisville, being outgained 690-166 with 3 turnovers.

If you're a glutton for punishment, Indiana State plays Indiana tonight at 6 pm, otherwise, the rest of the more competitive games begin tomorrow of course!

[salemjack]

I’m surprised Murray State eclipsed 100 yards

[JackJD]

Yeah, I was there, so I experienced the treacherous conditions. What we lack in ice, we can counter with noise, and I'm hoping the Jacks fan who was telling their punt team to assemble on 2nd down is in "playoff form" again

That guy deserved a year of free beer at Cubbys for that performance.

[jakejc795]

That guy deserved a year of free beer at Cubbys for that performance.

I won't disagree, but given his seeming level of consumption that day, we might need ol' DJD to bankroll that beer bennie.

Wait, was it you yelling that?

[salemjack]

Our D Line needs to improve a lot if we want to beat NDSU.

[goon]

Do they even have a sack yet this year?

[salemjack]

Doesn’t feel like it.

Jace Sifore got close yesterday. I loved the energy he showed too.

Seems like our vets are content, might be good to open up some snaps and get some energy going.

[jakejc795]

Do they even have a sack yet this year?

No, which surprises me. I figured Peterson would play a larger role

[bigticket1]

No, which surprises me. I figured Peterson would play a larger role

He got a lot of minutes in the second half with the 2's. Probably trying to get him reps to get comfortable with the system.