Valley Playoff scenarios at the Midway

[Mr_Tibbs]

I'm bored and a little drunk tonight after a very confusing win, so I'm going to take a stab at the remaining playoff scenarios in the Valley. If I miss a fact that has a major impact on the standings, please let me know.

First, the current standings:

1) UND (4-0)
2) SDSU (3-1)
2) SIU (3-1)
2) NDSU (3-1) (4-1)
2) MSU (2-1)
6) UNI (2-2)
7) USD (1-2)
8) ISUr (0-3)
9) YSU (0-4)
10) WIU (0-3)

First, I'm not going to include the 8, 9, and 10 teams. They're done and either are mathematically eliminated or almost certainly will be within 2 weeks. It is highly unlikely a 3 loss Valley team gets in, so they're effectively done.



First, UND:
The Sioux are in the driver's seat and in great shape for the playoffs at a minimum.

Remaining schedule:
@ NDSU
@YSU
vs MSU
@ISUr

The road games aren't easy, but the Sioux definitely have a favorable back half schedule. They miss Uni and have already won against SDSU and SIU.




Next, SDSU:
@SIU
vs ISUr
@NDSU
vs USD

The Jacks have a difficult back half, but have already gotten through road trips to UND and UNI.





NDSU:
vs UND
@USD
vs SDSU
@UNI

The Bison probably have the toughest remaining schedule, with two top teams at home and a tough UNI squad on the road.





SIU:
vs SDSU
@MSU
@ISUr
vs WIU

Salukis probably have the easiest remaining schedule, with only one top half team remaining and they're playing them at home.





MSU:
@UNI
vs SIU
@UND
vs YSU
vs. ISUr

Bears are 2-4 overall and have wins over two bad teams in the Valley. This isn't happening...






UNI:
vs MSU
@WIU
@USD
vs NDSU

Panthers have a tough game home vs NDSU and a sneaky road game in Vermont, but otherwise have a manageable schedule going forward.





USD:
@YSU
vs NDSU
vs UNI
@SDSU
vs WIU

Yotes have a tough schedule left, with 3 top half teams. Only one on the road though.






First, a couple obvious things. MSU and USD aren't going to the playoffs. Msu can still drop a game, but with their schedule, they have a lot of good chances to drop at least two. The yotes can't drop any more games, and still have UNI, SDSU, and NDSU left. Not happening this spring boys.



Scenario 1:

UND wins out
NDSU loses to the Jacks and UND to finish 6-3
Jacks win out to finish 7-1
Salukis lose to SDSU and win everything else to finish 7-2
UNI wins out, with the exception of NDSU to finish 5-3

In this scenario, which might be the most probable, UND is a lock,, a is SDSU. Jacks would have the head to head with every other team that could lay claim to a bid. In this scenario though, SIU has to get in ahead of NDSU, with the h2h over them and 7 wins. If they Valley gets 3 teams, which Isa question mark and will depend on the rest of the country.

Scenario 2:
UND loses to NDSU but wins the rest to go 7-1
NDSU wins out to finish 8-1
Jacks finish 6-2 with a loss to NDSU and UND
SIU finishes 7-2 with a loss to SDSU and UND
UNI loses to NDSU, but otherwise wins out for 5-3

This is a tricky one. UND and NDSU are obviously in. And while the Jacks would have the h2h over SIU, they would have 7 d1 wins, while we have 6. The committee isn't taking 4 Valley teams. We would have wins over UNI and SIU, with losses to UND. They would have wins over NDSU and UNI, with losses to us and UND. I think you have to take the Jacks here as the third bid, but it could go either way.

Scenario 3:
UND loses to NDSU to go 7-1
NDSU wins out to go 7-1
SIU wins out go 7-1
SDSU finishes 5-3
Uni finishes 5-3

UNI and the Jacks are out. I have no clue who gets the autobid in the above scenario, but I think it would be SIU. Siu and thw bison would have the extra d1 win to break the tie with UND, and SIU has the h2h.



Scenario 4:
UND loses to NDSU to go 7-1
Ndsu loses to und and UNI to go 6-3
SDSU loses to Bison, but finishes 6-2
Siu loses to SDSU to go 7-2
UNI wins out to go 6-2

This one's a ****ing mess and is entirely plausible. UND is in, that much is sure. Next would be SDSU with the h2h over SIU and UNI. Then it would come down to SIU and UNI. Has to be SIU with the h2h.

Scenario 5:
UND drops the NDSU game at 7-1
Jacks win out at 7-1
NDSU wins out except for SDSU at 7-2
SIU wins out at 7-2
UNI at 5-3

Has to be Sioux, Jacks, and salukis with the h2h.


Scenario 6:
UND wins out
NDSU loses to UND and UNI to go 6-3
Jacks lose to NDSU to go 6-2
SIU loses to Jacks to go 7-2
UNI wins out to go 6-2

In this case, it would be UND, SIU, and SDSU.

Scenario 7:
UND loses to NDSU to go 7-1
NDSU loses to Jacks and UNI to go 6-3
Jacks lose to SIU and win out to go 6-2
SIU wins out to go 7-1
UNI wins out at 6-2

Sioux and SIU, and probably the Jacks.


Scenario 8:
UND wins out 8-0
NDSU loses to UND and UNI to go 6-3
Jacks lose to SIU and NDSU to go 5-3
SIU wins out to go 7-1
UNI wins out to go 6-2

Sioux, SIU, and UNI.

Scenario 9:
UND loses to ndsu, 7-1
NDSU loses to UNI to go 7-2
Jacks lose to SIU and NDSU to go 5-3
SIU wins out to go 7-1
UNI wins out to go 6-2

Sioux, SIU, and UNI.


Scenario 10:

UND loses to NDSU, 7-1
NDSU loses to Jacks, 7-2
Jacks win out, 7-1
SIU loses to Jacks, 7-2
UNI loses to NDSU, 5-3

This one has tocbe Sioux, Jacks, and Salukis.


Finally, Scenario 11:

UND loses to NDSU, 7-1
NDSU loses to Jacks, 7-2
Jacks lose to SIU, 6-2
SIU wins out, 7-1
UNI loses to NDSU, 5-3

This one is tough. UND and SIU are in.. Jacks have 2h2 over ndsu, but ndsu has extra d1 win and all the name recognition in the world. I think it would be NDSU over the Jacks.



I probably missed a few, but here are some key takeaways:

1) Barring a real collapse (which is possible), UND is a lock. They can afford to lose twice and still get in with h2h over the Jacks and SIU if they finish with similar records. With their remaining schedule, they should be favored in all but 1 game (and maybe even that one too), but they do have three tough road games at NDSU, ISU, and YSU. I will be surprised if UND finishes 8-0, but I'll be shocked if they don't make the playoffs at this point. 2-2 over the next month might even get them in, depending on what us and UNI do.

2) SIU's win over UNI today was huge. They hold tiebreakers over ndsu and uni. They have a cheese schedule going forward with the exception of SDSU, and they can still afford to lose to us and have a great shot at grabbing the third bid (if it exists).

3) UNI is basically toast. Even if they won out, there are only a few scenarios where they get in, losing the tiebreaker to us and SIU. They need a ton of help and the existence of a third bid to have any shot.

4) NDSU is very much in trouble with another loss. Even if the Bison finish 7-2, they don't hold the tiebreaker over SIU. I still think they're in because of their game this fall (I wish we would have played one), but if there isn't a 3rd bid, they aren't getting in over a 7-2 SIU team.

5) Jacks can lose one more and have a good shot at the third bid, but they probably need to beat NDSU. If the Sioux and Salukis win out, that would leave the Jacks as a clear cut 3rd with a couple good wins. If they beat SIU and lose to NDSU, the jacks have the h2h over SIU, but will SIUs noncon top 25 win give them the nod? Someone is going to get snubbed this spring.

6) The loss to UND really hurts. The jacks control their destiny, but they aren't going to get the autobidb without 2 UND losses, which seems unlikely. Certainly possible, but not likely.


My gut tells me that if three Valley teams get in, it's Und, sdsu, and siu.

There are more scenarios in which those 3 teams get in than not. The Bison still have a good shgood playoffs and control their destiny, but they haven't looked great and have 3 very tough games left and don't have the tie breaker with SIU if it comes down to it.

All of this is for not if the Valley only gets two. In that case, the Jacks need to win out and they're a lock. Another loss, and they need help to the tune of UNI's current situation.

Edit: I will add, given the current state of things nationally, I do think the Valley gets three in.

CAA will get two (probably JMU and Delaware), but three seems less likely after today. Nova lost to a bad URI team, Stonybrook lost to UD, and Maine beat Albany. All of the north teams now have 1 loss, and Nova hasn't played UD yet. Seems more likely than not that UD and JMU are the only two.

Big Sky is similar. Weber is 2-0 and doesn't play UI or EWU and passed their test against Davis today. UI, Davis, and EWU are all tied with 1 loss, but UI and EWU play again. I think the big sky gets 2, not 3. They needed Weber and another team to go undefeated, and a third to have one loss. That seems impossible at this point.

Socon is a mess with VMI at the top and with wins over the next top teams,, who still have to play each other.. 2 is unlikely..

OVC seems to be a lock for JSU, but I dont think a second will come out of there.

Big South should be 1 bid, but we've seen them get 2 before.

NEC is one bid

Southland looked like a two-bit, nut after what SHSU did to Nicholls today, I'm not sure. SHSU is in full control down there, and Nicholls needs to win out now. And even then, that loss today was a bad, bad look.

Pioneer will have 1 bid.

Patriot will also have 1.

By my count, the Valley is a lock for 1 at large, as is the CAA. That leaves 4 bids left. The Big Sky should be a lock for an at large, but the next three best teams (Davis, ewu, and idaho) all already have one loss and have tough games against each other remaining. It's very conceivable that all of them end up withc2 losses. You'd still have to think that one at large will go their way. That leaves 3 left. Either the Southland or the Socon will probably take 1, leaving 2.

That leaves the committee a choice between the 3rd Valley team, the 3rd CAA team, and unlikely 3rd BSC team, and a second Southland/Socon team.

With the rankings of the Valley this year, I have to think one of the last one goes to them, and the other goes to a second Southland/Socon team.

[WestSideRabbit]

This is an excellent breakdown!

[THE PRIDE IS BACK!!!]

Thanks for all the work you put into this. Should be interesting to see which scenarios are eliminated each week.

[LetsGoRabbits]

did not try to go through all possible scenarios yet but the jacks definitely still need help to win the conference. of course we need to win out, but that means knocking ndsu OUT of the three way tie we currently have leaving us in a 2 way tie with und, which they obviously win bc h2h. the rest of their schedule looks pretty manageable. does the bears road win vs uni give anyone much hope they knock und off??? otherwise who has the best shot to trip und up??

if we win out we will be in the playoffs regardless, but i cannot say i care much for the idea of und winning the conference first year in. ( i need a puke face emoji here ) i think as long as the game against ndsu is competitive and we take care of business in the other two we would be in at 6-2. not trying to put some kinda bad mojo on us but i think the chances of the ndsu game not being competitive are pretty slim. goon, was it you who said the redbird game is a trap? DEFINITELY!

it is as classic of a trap game as it could possibly be. sadly i think we are far more likely to put up a stinker against redbirds than the bison. appreciate your thoughts on this jake, but we have definitely had our share of games we SHOULD win where we are just enough OFF of our game to drop one. that being said, that has been much more likely to happen EARLY in the season. except for last year which i think is CLEARLY injury related, the jacks have a long history of finishing the regular season VERY strong

hopefully there will be ZERO trouble with motivation or focus in the final game regardless what has happened in the previous 2!! i would hope after last year we are foaming at the mouth like a bunch of rabid rabbits to remove body parts from the freaking coyotes and leave them strewn about the prairie. i will even volunteer to go up to brookings and load my pickup with collected coyote body parts and distribute them around the region as a reminder/ warning to any cocky coyotes about what happens when they start thinking they will mess with the rabbits))

[THE PRIDE IS BACK!!!]

I think only scenarios 2, 5, and 10 are still possible? Obviously a bit different without Illinois St for some teams to play and UNI losing to Da Bears. Missouri St technically could make the playoffs, but I see it as unlikely.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Yeah, I'm not sure how the Redbird's decision is going to impact standings and autobids, but I dont think it helps. Outside of the obvious benefit of getting a bye week and getting healthy. I'm on the fence about trying to schedule MSU on 4/17. If we are in the playoff discussion by that point, or have an at large locked up, it makes very little sense to play that game. On the flip side, if the Valley were to overhaul the backhalf schedules and try to finish everything out as close to a round Robin, I could see more justification for it, but even then, not ideal.

As for scenarios, I think you are correct with your three you identified. Unless some upsets happen,, its basically down to a three way race for first, with SIU looking at being anywhere from #2 to #4. If the Jacks win out, theycwoukd tie with UND for the conference title,, but the autobid goes to the Sioux, with SIU in third. Jacks losing to NDSU but winning out should put them in third,, ahead of SIU, and give NDSU the autobid. Jacks lose to ndsu and win out, but a bison loss to uni, and then it's a mess for 2 and 3. UND wins the whole thing, but then it's going to come down to some tie breakers. Not sure who the odd team out is there.


With all that being said,, I think UND trips up again,, and my money would be on the road this week against YSU. Penguins are playing better and improving, have a solid D, and UND's offense aren't world beaters. I can see them tripping up there, leaving the championship to the winner of the marker game. Fun scenario, in the event that und loses again, jacks lose to NDSU but the Bison lose to UNI, and SIU wins out, SDSU would win the conference still. Still several pathways to at least a portion of the conference championship and autobid with a little help.

[jakejc795]

Yeah, I'm not sure how the Redbird's decision is going to impact standings and autobids, but I dont think it helps. Outside of the obvious benefit of getting a bye week and getting healthy. I'm on the fence about trying to schedule MSU on 4/17. If we are in the playoff discussion by that point, or have an at large locked up, it makes very little sense to play that game. On the flip side, if the Valley were to overhaul the backhalf schedules and try to finish everything out as close to a round Robin, I could see more justification for it, but even then, not ideal.

As for scenarios, I think you are correct with your three you identified. Unless some upsets happen,, its basically down to a three way race for first, with SIU looking at being anywhere from #2 to #4. If the Jacks win out, theycwoukd tie with UND for the conference title,, but the autobid goes to the Sioux, with SIU in third. Jacks losing to NDSU but winning out should put them in third,, ahead of SIU, and give NDSU the autobid. Jacks lose to ndsu and win out, but a bison loss to uni, and then it's a mess for 2 and 3. UND wins the whole thing, but then it's going to come down to some tie breakers. Not sure who the odd team out is there.


With all that being said,, I think UND trips up again,, and my money would be on the road this week against YSU. Penguins are playing better and improving, have a solid D, and UND's offense aren't world beaters. I can see them tripping up there, leaving the championship to the winner of the marker game. Fun scenario, in the event that und loses again, jacks lose to NDSU but the Bison lose to UNI, and SIU wins out, SDSU would win the conference still. Still several pathways to at least a portion of the conference championship and autobid with a little help.

The NCAA should step in and say that unless the CAA playoff qualifiers play on 4/17, no one in playoff consideration does, because the Valley teams are already at a disadvantage playing one to two additional games

As for trying to schedule the Bears, move the Jacks' final game against the 'Yotes and finish the season against the Bears. One scenario could have Jacks play Bison this week and then the 'Yotes close their season against them (with the Jacks playing the 'Yotes next week). This would mean UNI loses a 4/2 road game against the 'Yotes (and I'd prefer the new game would be moved to 4/3), but it ensures playoff qualifiers have common opponents.

[Mr_Tibbs]

The NCAA should step in and say that unless the CAA playoff qualifiers play on 4/17, no one in playoff consideration does, because the Valley teams are already at a disadvantage playing one to two additional games

As for trying to schedule the Bears, move the Jacks' final game against the 'Yotes and finish the season against the Bears. One scenario could have Jacks play Bison this week and then the 'Yotes close their season against them (with the Jacks playing the 'Yotes next week). This would mean UNI loses a 4/2 road game against the 'Yotes (and I'd prefer the new game would be moved to 4/3), but it ensures playoff qualifiers have common opponents.

I highly, highly doubt that the Valley is going to do much moving of schedules at this point. We're over half way done with the season and I think that they have no interest in dealing with the logistics of all that. Not to mention, not sure schools in playoff contention right now are going to be okay with a game on 4/17, and shifting everybody around right now to get a round Robin and avoid 4/17 games is very unlikely in my opinion. The right thing to do would be to just award the ISUr forfeitures as 3 wins and call it a day. If they have that ability, that is the easiest and makes the most sense.

[jakejc795]

I highly, highly doubt that the Valley is going to do much moving of schedules at this point. We're over half way done with the season and I think that they have no interest in dealing with the logistics of all that. Not to mention, not sure schools in playoff contention right now are going to be okay with a game on 4/17, and shifting everybody around right now to get a round Robin and avoid 4/17 games is very unlikely in my opinion. The right thing to do would be to just award the ISUr forfeitures as 3 wins and call it a day. If they have that ability, that is the easiest and makes the most sense.

One benefit of what I'd proposed is that no playoff qualifier would have to play on 4/17. The drawback is the Jacks would have to prepare for Bison on a short week, but the Bison would have to pivot from preparing for 'Yotes to preparing for Jacks.

The tricky part about awarding wins/forfeits is that the Bison played the Redbirds and beat them, whereas the Jacks and UND "win" by default. That's another benefit of the schedule shift, it gives the committee outcomes against common opponents. We'd have to rely on USD and UNI to accommodate, but it could potentially be done.

I wonder how much Tyler and Stig will discuss the disruption on Stig's radio show tonight.

[Mr_Tibbs]

In light of isur canceling, I went ahead and ran some win percentage calculations if the Valley/playoffs go by win percentage.

If UND, SDSU, and SIU win out it would go:

UND: 85%
SDSU: 85%
NDSU: 75%
SIU: 71%

If UND wins out, NDSU wins Out, SIU wins out, and Jacks go 1-1:

NDSU: 88%
UND: 85%
SDSU: 71%
SIU: 71%

If the Jacks go 1-1, Bison lose to UNI, UND drops to YSU, and SIU wins out:

NDSU: 77%
UND: 71%
SDSU: 71%
SIU: 71%
Tie breaker goes to SIU with their OOC win,, leaving SDSU as 4th.

[WestSideRabbit]

In light of isur canceling, I went ahead and ran some win percentage calculations if the Valley/playoffs go by win percentage.

If UND, SDSU, and SIU win out it would go:

UND: 85%
SDSU: 85%
NDSU: 75%
SIU: 71%

If UND wins out, NDSU wins Out, SIU wins out, and Jacks go 1-1:

NDSU: 88%
UND: 85%
SDSU: 71%
SIU: 71%

If the Jacks go 1-1, Bison lose to UNI, UND drops to YSU, and SIU wins out:

NDSU: 77%
UND: 71%
SDSU: 71%
SIU: 71%
Tie breaker goes to SIU with their OOC win,, leaving SDSU as 4th.

Excellent work again! Thank you for your work calculating all this.

[Mr_Tibbs]

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-...auto-bid-bzbz/

Tie-breaking scenarios for every conference, including MVFC.

If I'm following it correctly, we are only down to a few possibilities. First, if the Jacks go 1-1 we are most likely out of the auto-bid discussion, without a lot of help, so I'm not going to worry about how we could still get the auto vs just an at large.

If we win out and UND wins out, they get the auto. If we win out and UND drops a game and MSU wins out, we would then be tied with MSU. Of course, we didn't play MSU. Under that scenario, I believe it would default to tie breaker #3, which is record against the next highest finisher. They would have a loss to NDSU, who we beat, but we would have a loss to UND, who they beat. In this scenario, it would depend on how UND and NDSU finish. If both finish 6-2, then NDSU would finish higher than the Sioux with the h2h, meaning we would have the win against the next highest Valley team, giving us the auto. If NDSU tripped up against UNI though and UND went 1-1 to finish, MSU gets the auto.

If the Jacks win out, UND goes 1-1 but beats MSU, Jacks get the auto. If the Jacks win out and and UND loses twice, Jacks get the auto over MSU (if they win out) due to UND finishing behind NDSU, assuming NDSU doesn't lose to UNI. If they lose to UNI, then NDSU would still have the h2h and finish above UND, giving the Jacks the auto.

So basically, we want to win out, need UND to go 1-1, preferably by beating MSU. If they lose to MSU and beat YSU, we need NDSU to beat USD and UNI so that they finish above UND, meaning that we have the better win against the third place Valley team over MSU, and thus the autobid.

How the Salukis factor into this is strange. If UND loses one more to MSU and NDSU loses to us, they will have sole control of 3rd, having the h2h over NDSU and MSU. If NDSU wins out, and UND goes 1-1 losing to YSU, Salukis would be 4th, behind us. Their best path to the playoffs is if the Jacks win out and UND loses twice, or if the Bison go 1-1 and SIU wins out. In that scenario, if the Jacks gave the L to the Bison, Salukis are still 3rd. If it's UNI that beats NDSU, tie breakers kick in, and it depends on the common record of NDSU, SIU, and SDSU against the next highest common opponent, most likely UNI. Jacks claim 3rd in that instance.

Let's root for SIU and YSU this week to make next week a lot simpler.


What a mess. Where's the goddamn Pepe Silvia meme when you need it...

[Mr_Tibbs]

FWIW, the committee's top 10 was just released. Jacks at #3.

1. JMU
2. NDSU
3. SDSU
4. SHSU
5. UND
6. Weber
7. Delaware
8. VMI
9. Davis
10. Murray State


A few thoughts.

I know this spring is a mess and it's a tough job to get something even close to a good ranking, but JMU at 1 and Weber at 6 is a travesty.. JMU still hasn't even played a top 25 team and has looked bad in all but one game.. Weber has played tougher competition and has a win over over #9 team.

Delaware should be higher, while JMU should be about #7.

Winner of the Marker will likely be #1 inmy opinion.

Edit: I think the committee usually does a decent job on their rankings and seeding.. Not perfect, but not terrible. This one has a few major misses though, I think.

[jakejc795]

FWIW, the committee's top 10 was just released. Jacks at #3.

1. JMU
2. NDSU
3. SDSU
4. SHSU
5. UND
6. Weber
7. Delaware
8. VMI
9. Davis
10. Murray State


A few thoughts.

I know this spring is a mess and it's a tough job to get something even close to a good ranking, but JMU at 1 and Weber at 6 is a travesty.. JMU still hasn't even played a top 25 team and has looked bad in all but one game.. Weber has played tougher competition and has a win over over #9 team.

Delaware should be higher, while JMU should be about #7.

Winner of the Marker will likely be #1 inmy opinion.

Edit: I think the committee usually does a decent job on their rankings and seeding.. Not perfect, but not terrible. This one has a few major misses though, I think.

Would you move Weber State to #4, Blue Hens to #6, and SHSU to #7?

They could've really stirred the pot and had a wacky "April Fool's version" released just before the genuine one

[Mr_Tibbs]

Would you move Weber State to #4, Blue Hens to #6, and SHSU to #7?

They could've really stirred the pot and had a wacky "April Fool's version" released just before the genuine one

Something like that. I'd probably go

1. Weber
2. Ndsu
3. Sdsu
4. Delaware
5. SHSU
6. UND
7. JMU
8. VMI
9. DAVIS
10. Murray

You could make a solid argument for any of the top 4 to be in any order. And I think if we beat the Bison, we have the best resume, by far, on that list.