Quarterfinals @ KSU Owls

[Mr_Tibbs]

Let's just get this thread started so we don't derail the Duquesne thread.

Looplks like KSU had about 3500 fans at their game yesterday. I'm guessing that the rain and the SEC championship in Atlanta had something to do with that. If it's okay weather, I'd expect that figure to double for our game on Saturday. Early forecast looks like high 40s and rain. Probably not ideal. I've heard KSU doesn't have great pass D, which could bode well for us. But given the predicted conditions, I think their run D will be the more important state line. They shut down Wofford, but I'm not sure that means much. I'll look into their size on the D line and see what I can find. Right now, this seems like a game we should be favored in. IMO, the key to the game will be limiting their drives to six or fewer plays as much as possible. If the Jacks O gets 55+ snaps off in this game, I think that bodes very well for us. KSU has the potential to "Youngstown 2017" us if we let then convert on 3rd down. Even drives of theirs that don't end in points but take 4+ minutes off the clock will be damaging. We have to get off the field, or they'll shorten the game and force us to score each time we get a possession.

I have faith that our D can get off the field, so I'll say 37-17 Jacks. If it's a driving rain, I'll go with Jacks 24-10.

[jakejc795]

Re: Quarterfinals @ KSU Owls

Let's just get this thread started so we don't derail the Duquesne thread.

Looplks like KSU had about 3500 fans at their game yesterday. I'm guessing that the rain and the SEC championship in Atlanta had something to do with that. If it's okay weather, I'd expect that figure to double for our game on Saturday. Early forecast looks like high 40s and rain. Probably not ideal. I've heard KSU doesn't have great pass D, which could bode well for us. But given the predicted conditions, I think their run D will be the more important state line. They shut down Wofford, but I'm not sure that means much. I'll look into their size on the D line and see what I can find. Right now, this seems like a game we should be favored in. IMO, the key to the game will be limiting their drives to six or fewer plays as much as possible. If the Jacks O gets 55+ snaps off in this game, I think that bodes very well for us. KSU has the potential to "Youngstown 2017" us if we let then convert on 3rd down. Even drives of theirs that don't end in points but take 4+ minutes off the clock will be damaging. We have to get off the field, or they'll shorten the game and force us to score each time we get a possession.

I have faith that our D can get off the field, so I'll say 37-17 Jacks. If it's a driving rain, I'll go with Jacks 24-10.

Looks like their season high for attendance was 8,799 for Alabama State game in mid-Sept. Otherwise, it was generally a couple thousand less.

May the rain forecast be as accurate as the seemingly fractionally-challenged name of their stadium [Fifth Third Stadium (apparently the Fifth and Third Banks merged back in 1908)]. Pictures online made it seem like the field was grass, but apparently, it's a grass-turf hybrid, so not sure how rain would affect the surface.

They've lost ten fumbles during season, so that could be a factor again. Rechsteiner and McKenzie (both RBs) had multiple lost fumbles, and it looks like Rechsteiner was injured early and again later in season. Wrestling fans may be interested in knowing that Rechsteiner (a converted LB) is the son of the "Dog-Faced Gremlin" Rick Steiner.

[OldHare]

Re: Quarterfinals @ KSU Owls

So what are the odds of SDSU fans in the Georgia vicinity who will attend this game? It would seem that long travel by fans is more likely than SDSU resident numbers in that region.

[Jackedforlife]

Re: Quarterfinals @ KSU Owls

Lines are out...Jacks are -10.5 with total Pts at 60.5. Crazy we are favored that much.

[BULLDOG]

Re: Quarterfinals @ KSU Owls

Lines are out...Jacks are -10.5 with total Pts at 60.5. Crazy we are favored that much.

It tells me how corrupt or lack of knowledge the committee has to put SDSU and NDSU on the same side.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Quarterfinals @ KSU Owls

I'm not too surprised with that line. The committee probably underseeded us by at least one spot, maybe three. But, we didn't win enough to avoid that. Win @UNI and we're home for the whole thing. Instead, the result is traveling in the quarter finals and being favored by 11 points. As I mentioned earlier, KSU doesn't have a big racous crowd to contend with, so that should help us. And while we know that they're a solid team, I'm not sure that they're a legit top 10 team, and therefore we really don't know what we're going to get. They could be a ground it out type team that plays stingy D and "upsets" the Jacks while validating their seeding. Or, their weak schedule might catch up with them and we end up blowing the top off the game and win by 21+. For the past three years, the Jacks have been one of the best three teams in the nation on 8-9 Saturdays each Fall. The problem is, we aren't consistent enough to avoid two or more letdowns each fall. A loss isn't unexpected, but to have our seeding match our talent, we can't lose @ UNI in 2018, we can't lose vs UNI AND @ YSU in 2017, and we can't lose vs Poly AND @ ISUR in 2016 if we want to be guranteed a home quarterfinal game. We lucked out last year when UNH upset UCA, giving us another home game, and we almost got lucky again this year. But to parapgrase Stig, "We haven't been 'Leaving nothing to chance' these past few years when we drop those games." Our talent is as good as anyone in the country, and on most weekends, we're good enough to win the title. We just havent been able to put it all together. The result is traveling 1500 miles to play a team that we should be hosting this weekend.

[Justwin]

Re: Quarterfinals @ KSU Owls

It tells me how corrupt or lack of knowledge the committee has to put SDSU and NDSU on the same side.

IMO it's not so much about lack of knowledge or corruption it's about $$$. Like it or not these games do not bring in money for the NCAA so costs will always be a factor in match ups. Along with arguably the 2 best teams in the nation are located 2 hrs apart from each other AND a long way from anybody else.

[SoDakJack]

Re: Quarterfinals @ KSU Owls

I'm not too surprised with that line. The committee probably underseeded us by at least one spot, maybe three. But, we didn't win enough to avoid that. Win @UNI and we're home for the whole thing. Instead, the result is traveling in the quarter finals and being favored by 11 points. As I mentioned earlier, KSU doesn't have a big racous crowd to contend with, so that should help us. And while we know that they're a solid team, I'm not sure that they're a legit top 10 team, and therefore we really don't know what we're going to get. They could be a ground it out type team that plays stingy D and "upsets" the Jacks while validating their seeding. Or, their weak schedule might catch up with them and we end up blowing the top off the game and win by 21+. For the past three years, the Jacks have been one of the best three teams in the nation on 8-9 Saturdays each Fall. The problem is, we aren't consistent enough to avoid two or more letdowns each fall. A loss isn't unexpected, but to have our seeding match our talent, we can't lose @ UNI in 2018, we can't lose vs UNI AND @ YSU in 2017, and we can't lose vs Poly AND @ ISUR in 2016 if we want to be guranteed a home quarterfinal game. We lucked out last year when UNH upset UCA, giving us another home game, and we almost got lucky again this year. But to parapgrase Stig, "We haven't been 'Leaving nothing to chance' these past few years when we drop those games." Our talent is as good as anyone in the country, and on most weekends, we're good enough to win the title. We just havent been able to put it all together. The result is traveling 1500 miles to play a team that we should be hosting this weekend.

Add to that when we lost to UNI the game wasn't close. Like you pointed out, we've handed the committee reasons every year to funnel us through Fargo.

[BULLDOG]

Re: Quarterfinals @ KSU Owls

Add to that when we lost to UNI the game wasn't close. Like you pointed out, we've handed the committee reasons every year to funnel us through Fargo.

3 pt game on the road with 5 minutes to play without 3 lineman, 2 RB's and 1 playing with separated shoulder and 3 starters on defense that didn't practice all week, but did play. I will say it was purposeful to put west teams together and SDSU/NDSU together.

[jakejc795]

Re: Quarterfinals @ KSU Owls

3 pt game on the road with 5 minutes to play without 3 lineman, 2 RB's and 1 playing with separated shoulder and 3 starters on defense that didn't practice all week, but did play. I will say it was purposeful to put west teams together and SDSU/NDSU together.

It'd be very interesting to know whether the seeding discussion delves into variables like the key injuries you mentioned. While it makes the seeding more subjective, you'd think they could add some standardization by quantifying the number of starters missing from losses, not to mention the fact that the loss was to another team that made the playoff field.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Quarterfinals @ KSU Owls

I'm rewatching the KSU-Wofford game to try to gauge their size. Both their lines look small to me, but the stats say otherwise. Looks like their O line averages around 280 (which is a little light). D line more like 250. Most TO teams have smaller, quicker O lines, so that's not surprising to me. They just look smaller all around on D though. And I don't expect them to match up well with our corners when they do decide to throw it: not much size on the edge. If our D line can get some penetration and disrupt their timing, we should do very well, given the rest of our team speed. Long story short, I think we've played more talented offens I've teams this year, but adjusting to their scheme will be the difference in this game.

[Jackedforlife]

Re: Quarterfinals @ KSU Owls

Looks like the forecast will be similar to the Missouri St game, 35-40degrees and rain. I hope we play like we did that day.

[Hareofthedog]

Re: Quarterfinals @ KSU Owls

Jacks will cover the =10.5, no doubt. I don see the Owls scoring more than 10 unless it’s a very late score when the game has been decided. The Owls would be a middle of the pack MVFC team only. 42-10 Jackrabbits win!

[CappinHard]

Re: Quarterfinals @ KSU Owls

Somehow the spread is down to -9.5 (checks with bookie to see how much he'll let me bet on an FCS game). I think the spread should be around 24-27 tbh. We have the best/deepest D line we have had in a long time, paired with fast LBs that love to swarm to the ball, and a Big 10 safety whose specialty is run support. I don't see us having a problem with the TO. I think this will be a reality check and rude awakening for a team that hasn't played a team as good as ours, maybe ever. This is only their 4th year in existence, and even in their Cinderella playoff run last year, they beat Samford and Jacksonville State, then lost to Sam Houston (who then got whooped 55-13 by NDSU).

[thumper_76]

Re: Quarterfinals @ KSU Owls

It tells me how corrupt or lack of knowledge the committee has to put SDSU and NDSU on the same side.

Couple things about this. I would be on board if they had dropped us to the 8 seed, but at the 5 seed that’s not much to complain about. From my understanding the committee members vote individually on the top 8 seeds and through a point system like polls use the seeds are decided. It would take quite the effort to get the Jacks as a mid seed on the NDSU side of the bracket. There was plenty to complain about in this bracket, but the seeds weren’t one of them. What seeds that would make a difference did we have a better resume that? Certainly not Weber or EWU IMO. So at best we have a home game this weekend being the only difference.

As to us being in the other side of the bracket, then we need to get a resume worthy the two seed to make that happen if it makes you unhappy. If we don’t have a two seed worthy resume then we damn sure can’t expect special treatment from the committee. I don’t see Big Sky posters complaining that ALL 3 of their seeds are on the same side of the bracket. Complaining about having to go to Fargo in the semi finals is just being spoiled. You can’t expect the committee to wait on us hand and foot and clear the way of NDSU to Frisco for us just because we’ve played before. If we don’t piss the UNI game down our legs we aren’t having this conversation. As I’ve said before though, there’s a bunch of GOOD reasons that we would rather play them in Fargo than Frisco this year, so there’s also that.

Add to that when we lost to UNI the game wasn't close. Like you pointed out, we've handed the committee reasons every year to funnel us through Fargo.

In the UNI game we won most major stats besides the scoreboard. That game was close.


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