Top 10 10/31 release

[Sodakbull]

Re: Top 10 10/31 release

Honestly, with the D we have been trotting out the last couple weeks, I am just hoping we don't have to play over Thanksgiving weekend. No one scares me with this D. As long as they keep it up for two more weeks.


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I love this defense and traditionally defense travels well. Certainly one of the best I can remember. I think we end up in California at UC Davis in the semi finals if we make it that far. Not sure if the committee would want the Bison nocked out in the semifinals 😃 At this point though let's just take care of business and stay healthy.

[SoDakJack]

Re: Top 10 10/31 release

I love this defense and traditionally defense travels well. Certainly one of the best I can remember. I think we end up in California at UC Davis in the semi finals if we make it that far. Not sure if the committee would want the Bison nocked out in the semifinals 😃 At this point though let's just take care of business and stay healthy.

The best chance of a good championship game would probably be NDSU against one of the other MVFC teams.

[Sodakbull]

Re: Top 10 10/31 release

The best chance of a good championship game would probably be NDSU against one of the other MVFC teams.

Probably for ticket sales and television viewers too.

[Bits]

Re: Top 10 10/31 release

I've read through this thread and there are a lot of great thoughts and information. I personally like our chances of getting the #3 seed IF we win convincingly in our last 2 games. Here are my thoughts assuming we take care of business:
I think the only schools we absolutely cannot jump ahead of, if they win out, are UC Davis and Weber State. If UC Davis would lose to EWU this week, I think we would finish ahead of both of UCD and EWU. If that happens, Weber State is the #2 seed assuming they take care of business against Idaho State, which is not a guarantee.
I also think the committee is looking at losses to NDSU and JMU as similar to FBS losses based on their dominance in the recent history (justifiably so). So, teams aren't necessarily getting penalized for those losses like they would other FCS losses. However, James Madison will no longer be on that same pedestal with their loss last week. Elon will no longer get the 'extra credit' for beating James Madison and I would argue that Delaware has a better resume than Elon. I think it's very possible we now jump Elon based on this. Could the committee jump Delaware ahead of us? That would be a significant jump for them considering they got completely dismantled by NDSU this year.
Kennesaw State has by far the worst strength of schedule of anyone considered for a seed. Would the committee move them into the top 4 with that piece of information? I again, don't think so. They are maxed out at a 5 seed, maybe a 4 seed if we have chaos these last 2 weeks.
This is a long winded post to say that I think we still have a shot at a top 4 seed, even without much help. I like our chances of a top 3 seed if get a game or 2 to break our way, but....who knows how the committee is going to weigh all of these different variables. It's fun to discuss since arguments can be made either way.

[Jacks-02]

Re: Top 10 10/31 release

I've read through this thread and there are a lot of great thoughts and information. I personally like our chances of getting the #3 seed IF we win convincingly in our last 2 games. Here are my thoughts assuming we take care of business:
I think the only schools we absolutely cannot jump ahead of, if they win out, are UC Davis and Weber State. If UC Davis would lose to EWU this week, I think we would finish ahead of both of UCD and EWU. If that happens, Weber State is the #2 seed assuming they take care of business against Idaho State, which is not a guarantee.
I also think the committee is looking at losses to NDSU and JMU as similar to FBS losses based on their dominance in the recent history (justifiably so). So, teams aren't necessarily getting penalized for those losses like they would other FCS losses. However, James Madison will no longer be on that same pedestal with their loss last week. Elon will no longer get the 'extra credit' for beating James Madison and I would argue that Delaware has a better resume than Elon. I think it's very possible we now jump Elon based on this. Could the committee jump Delaware ahead of us? That would be a significant jump for them considering they got completely dismantled by NDSU this year.
Kennesaw State has by far the worst strength of schedule of anyone considered for a seed. Would the committee move them into the top 4 with that piece of information? I again, don't think so. They are maxed out at a 5 seed, maybe a 4 seed if we have chaos these last 2 weeks.
This is a long winded post to say that I think we still have a shot at a top 4 seed, even without much help. I like our chances of a top 3 seed if get a game or 2 to break our way, but....who knows how the committee is going to weigh all of these different variables. It's fun to discuss since arguments can be made either way.

I agree with your thoughts. It would also be helpful for our seed if UNI can win their last two games against YSU and MSU, making them a solid playoff team at 7-4.

[WestSideRabbit]

Re: Top 10 10/31 release

Are we thinking we are the #4 as of today? Be nice if we could get a little more help and get the three.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Top 10 10/31 release

Are we thinking we are the #4 as of today? Be nice if we could get a little more help and get the three.

I think we're non higher than 4, but probably 5. 2/3/4 should be KSU, WSU, and EWU, but probably not in that order. I think Davis will remain in the top 8, but behind that Jacks. Then, I think JMU is probably in the 7 range, followed by either Maine, Colgate, or JSU (if they beat KSU). If KSU goes down, JSU probably gets a seed, even though they shouldn't.

[CappinHard]

Re: Top 10 10/31 release

Are we thinking we are the #4 as of today? Be nice if we could get a little more help and get the three.

It's really hard to tell how the committee will view SDSU in comparison to EWU, WSU, and KSU. I think we have a chance of being above 1 of them, so imo the max is 4 right now, but 5 is possible. If WSU loses to Idaho State, the possibilities move to 3 or 4. I would love the 3, but I don't think the 2 is possible, and the 4 would at least get us 2 home games.

Here are a couple bracket predictions:

http://www.nobowls.com/ (SDSU 2 seed)

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com...l/bracketology (SDSU 5 seed, imo this one is more accurate)

[Kemo]

Re: Top 10 10/31 release

It's really hard to tell how the committee will view SDSU in comparison to EWU, WSU, and KSU. I think we have a chance of being above 1 of them, so imo the max is 4 right now, but 5 is possible. If WSU loses to Idaho State, the possibilities move to 3 or 4. I would love the 3, but I don't think the 2 is possible, and the 4 would at least get us 2 home games.

Here are a couple bracket predictions:

http://www.nobowls.com/ (SDSU 2 seed)

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com...l/bracketology (SDSU 5 seed, imo this one is more accurate)

I think we'll either be seeded 3 or 6 (if everything holds pat, which I wouldn't bank on), depending on what methodology the committee uses and assuming they stay consistent with that methodology. I have a feeling the committee will put the xDSUs on opposite sides of the bracket.

[SoDakJack]

Re: Top 10 10/31 release

It's really hard to tell how the committee will view SDSU in comparison to EWU, WSU, and KSU. I think we have a chance of being above 1 of them, so imo the max is 4 right now, but 5 is possible. If WSU loses to Idaho State, the possibilities move to 3 or 4. I would love the 3, but I don't think the 2 is possible, and the 4 would at least get us 2 home games.

Here are a couple bracket predictions:

http://www.nobowls.com/ (SDSU 2 seed)

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com...l/bracketology (SDSU 5 seed, imo this one is more accurate)

Had UNI run the table to end the year I think that we would have something to stand on when discussing higher seeds. That loss is looking a lot worse now. We all should be pulling for a Montana State victory this weekend as it would give us another win over a playoff team

[Nidaros]

Re: Top 10 10/31 release

A Jacksonville State U upset of Kennesaw should helps some I would think. If you look at the KSU official website. They are celebrating the Big South championship and JSU has nothing to lose except a win would move them up. They would be the same as SDSU 8-2. The gamecocks robbed the D2 championship from us in 1985. I am pulling for them to beat Newt Ginrich's old school KSU.

[Kemo]

Re: Top 10 10/31 release

Had UNI run the table to end the year I think that we would have something to stand on when discussing higher seeds. That loss is looking a lot worse now. We all should be pulling for a Montana State victory this weekend as it would give us another win over a playoff team

This is where the methodology that the committee uses comes into play:

Sure, UNI running the table would have made the loss look better for the Jacks, but is the committee prioritizing good loses? If so, then we should be getting a ton of credit for easily giving NDSU their toughest game, in Fargo no less. Even with UNI crapping themselves against WIU and YSU, losing to a traditionally highly-regarded, known-to-be bi-polar team in the UNI Dome by essentially 1 score isn't a bad loss, especially considering some of our competition for a seed (Weber lost to the same Northern Arizona team that was boat raced by Missouri State).

Are good wins going to carry more weight or is overall strength of schedule? SDSU doesn't have a great individual win (root for Montana Stae and Indiana State this coming week), but the Jackrabbits' strength of schedule (#139 in Sagarin, all DI) is better than Eastern Washington's (#150), Weber State (#158), and Kennesaw State (#227) with extremely similar results.

This is kind of why I'm going 3 or 6, because SDSU could be at the top or bottom of the 2-8 cluster depending on what point of analysis is valued over others.

[bigticket1]

Re: Top 10 10/31 release

Jacks come in at #5 in all three (STATS, AGS and Coach's) weekly polls.

[Sodakbull]

Re: Top 10 10/31 release

I would think that would be about the worst position we could get if the seeds end up there as you would be on the road and headed to Fargo as a reward for winning.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Top 10 10/31 release

I would think that would be about the worst position we could get if the seeds end up there as you would be on the road and headed to Fargo as a reward for winning.

Agreed. Last year, we would have been on the road to Conway Arkansas for the quarterfinals had UNH not upset the bears. Although I think we could win in Fargo, for the sake of interest, I just want to play somewhere else. That being said, I think a trip to EWU might be difficult. We didn't do too hot there in 2013. Who knows how this team would respond, but the red turf is hard to get used to. Otherwise, I think a road trip to Ogden or Kennesaw would be our next best bet if we can't get a home game. I have a feeling that there's going to be at least one upset of those three teams mentioned this Saturday though, so we ought to slide up a bit. I also think that there's a decent chance the higher seed in our bracket will get upset in the second round, giving us a home quarterfinal. Especially if the higher seed is KSU.

If we don't drop the game at UNI, we're hosting games until Frisco. The same could be said for last year vs UNI or YSU, or 2016 vs ISUr. In an 11 game season with an fbs on the schedule, you can really only afford to drop one FCS game to stay in contention for the top 4 without some major help. It's crying over spilled milk at this point, but a win at UNI and I think our chances of making it to Frisco go way up. Brookings in December is hard on the road team.