Illinois State

[CappinHard]

Re: Illinois State

I would say a seed is anything but certain, even if we win out.

You think so? A win over Illinois State alone will put us back in the top 5. No one else plays a tough enough schedule to move ahead of us if we win out. There's no way they would not give a seed to a top 5 team.

[SF_Rabbit_Fan]

Re: Illinois State

You think so? A win over Illinois State alone will put us back in the top 5. No one else plays a tough enough schedule to move ahead of us if we win out. There's no way they would not give a seed to a top 5 team.

Neither school is in the top 6 in the coaches poll or STATS poll. A win won't move the needle much for either team, IMO. I don't see a 3 loss team getting a seed, especially when we are one game short on the season due to the IA state game.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Illinois State

You think so? A win over Illinois State alone will put us back in the top 5. No one else plays a tough enough schedule to move ahead of us if we win out. There's no way they would not give a seed to a top 5 team.

I think we might get back into the 6/7/8 area, but is hard to say. KSU will likely take a seed (unless they lose to JSU, which would help us), as will NDSU and JMU. 1 out of Davis/Weber/EWU will likely be seeded, and 2 is possible. Wofford and McNeese will likely be 9-2 to end the year, and Towson could be 9-2 or even 10-1. That's not counting UND, who could be 9-2, or a likely 10-0 Colgate. Additionally, if UNI finishes ahead of us, I'm not sure how the committee can justify seeding us and not them. The panthers will have the same number of wins, same number of FCS losses, and head to head against us.

We all know that some of those teams listed above play weaker schedules and shouldn't be seeded ahead of us, but we have no evidence to day that they won't be. On one hand, a 9-2 Mcneese with a D2 win got left out of the entire field last year. On the flip side, JSU was seeded third last year with one of the weakest strengths of schedule in the field. There will be lots of teams with legitimate resumes to be seeded ahead of SDSU, and that's not even counting the less-than-legit resumes that might steal a seed based on gaudy records against inferior competition.

In 2016, SDSU went 8-3 with an FBS loss and was seeded.
In that season, we won a share of the Valley, beat NDSU, and had and little help the last weekend from Richmond, who was slated ahead of us in the power poll if I remember correctly, in order to get the 8 seed. None of those things have happened, or likely will happen, this year. The best we can hope for is to win out, and have a couple teams drop a game. Then I think we'd be guaranteed a seed. Otherwise, I'm not sure.

[Southeast]

Re: Illinois State

Unless this injury situation somehow turns around real quick I have a feeling the only seeds we’ll be talking about in few weeks are un-harvested corn and NCAA basketball.

[Nidaros]

Re: Illinois State

We have some games we have to win, like the rest of our schedule. I have not tried to find details about tickets or room reservations for Frisco just yet, but it might be a chance we are still be playing in January 2019. I am hoping our guys will get healthy and win this Saturday and then we worry about Missouri State, SIU and USD. By Nov 24, there will not be many 8-2 teams in FCS.

[CappinHard]

Re: Illinois State

I think we might get back into the 6/7/8 area, but is hard to say. KSU will likely take a seed (unless they lose to JSU, which would help us), as will NDSU and JMU. 1 out of Davis/Weber/EWU will likely be seeded, and 2 is possible. Wofford and McNeese will likely be 9-2 to end the year, and Towson could be 9-2 or even 10-1. That's not counting UND, who could be 9-2, or a likely 10-0 Colgate. Additionally, if UNI finishes ahead of us, I'm not sure how the committee can justify seeding us and not them. The panthers will have the same number of wins, same number of FCS losses, and head to head against us.

We all know that some of those teams listed above play weaker schedules and shouldn't be seeded ahead of us, but we have no evidence to day that they won't be. On one hand, a 9-2 Mcneese with a D2 win got left out of the entire field last year. On the flip side, JSU was seeded third last year with one of the weakest strengths of schedule in the field. There will be lots of teams with legitimate resumes to be seeded ahead of SDSU, and that's not even counting the less-than-legit resumes that might steal a seed based on gaudy records against inferior competition.

In 2016, SDSU went 8-3 with an FBS loss and was seeded.
In that season, we won a share of the Valley, beat NDSU, and had and little help the last weekend from Richmond, who was slated ahead of us in the power poll if I remember correctly, in order to get the 8 seed. None of those things have happened, or likely will happen, this year. The best we can hope for is to win out, and have a couple teams drop a game. Then I think we'd be guaranteed a seed. Otherwise, I'm not sure.

We'll see. Hopefully we are in the situation where we deserve a seed. I just think that if we can win out, enough will happen through the rest of the FCS that we would get a seed, likely 6-8.

[CappinHard]

Re: Illinois State

Neither school is in the top 6 in the coaches poll or STATS poll. A win won't move the needle much for either team, IMO. I don't see a 3 loss team getting a seed, especially when we are one game short on the season due to the IA state game.

If we won out, we wouldn't be a 3 loss team.

[westernjack]

Re: Illinois State

Yes, if we win out we will get a seed. Do i think thats going to happen? I would give it less that a 50% chance. I think the most likely scenario is a 7-3 finish, host a first round game, and get sent to Fargo in round 2.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Illinois State

Last year, a 2 FCS loss SDSU ranked number 10 beat NDSU, and went on a winning streak to end the year. That was good for the number 5 seed. An 8-3 2016 SDSU had help to get the 8 seed, and I believe we were the first 8 win team to ever be seeded. This year, our best possible win remaining is ISUr. Right now, we have one victory over a team with a winning record (MSU). We might be able to get a couple more if USD and MSU finish strong (and lose to us).

Secondly, most of the teams ranked above us will not play between now and selection Sunday. JMU and Towon will, which might help us depending on who loses. EWU and Davis play each other, which will also help, especially if it's Davis that wins. Davis could lose that game and still be 9-2 and maybe get a seed. An EWU loss and they're out of seed contention. At 8-2, we will hopefully have two wins over potential playoff teams (ISUR and MSU). But most of the other teams fighting for those bottom 4 seeds have a similar resume. I think we will need some help.

Obviously, this is all for not if we don't win on Saturday. I don't like our chances based on our history in Normal, our injury situation, and their style of football. If we can pull off the win, we at least have a good argument for a seed. Let's hope this is a bounce back game and we can get moving in the right direction.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Illinois State

Does anybody know what the isu injury situation is?

[CappinHard]

Re: Illinois State

Last year, a 2 FCS loss SDSU ranked number 10 beat NDSU, and went on a winning streak to end the year. That was good for the number 5 seed. An 8-3 2016 SDSU had help to get the 8 seed, and I believe we were the first 8 win team to ever be seeded. This year, our best possible win remaining is ISUr. Right now, we have one victory over a team with a winning record (MSU). We might be able to get a couple more if USD and MSU finish strong (and lose to us).

Secondly, most of the teams ranked above us will not play between now and selection Sunday. JMU and Towon will, which might help us depending on who loses. EWU and Davis play each other, which will also help, especially if it's Davis that wins. Davis could lose that game and still be 9-2 and maybe get a seed. An EWU loss and they're out of seed contention. At 8-2, we will hopefully have two wins over potential playoff teams (ISUR and MSU). But most of the other teams fighting for those bottom 4 seeds have a similar resume. I think we will need some help.

Obviously, this is all for not if we don't win on Saturday. I don't like our chances based on our history in Normal, our injury situation, and their style of football. If we can pull off the win, we at least have a good argument for a seed. Let's hope this is a bounce back game and we can get moving in the right direction.

You have to look at the 2 losses though, as they aren't equal... Last year they were @ a 6-5 Youngstown State that didn't make the playoffs and at home against a 7-4 UNI that squeaked into the playoffs. If we win out, this year's losses will look MUCH better (assuming UNI makes the playoffs, but even if they don't, the losses will still be better). The other teams fighting for the bottom 4 seeds might have similar records, but chances are they won't have better resumes.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Illinois State

You have to look at the 2 losses though, as they aren't equal... Last year they were @ a 6-5 Youngstown State that didn't make the playoffs and at home against a 7-4 UNI that squeaked into the playoffs. If we win out, this year's losses will look MUCH better (assuming UNI makes the playoffs, but even if they don't, the losses will still be better). The other teams fighting for the bottom 4 seeds might have similar records, but chances are they won't have better resumes.

We have a "better" loss this year to NDSU than any loss last year, yes. But there's no guarantee UNI will be a playoff team. That could be a loss to a non playoff team. And last year, we had three wins over playoff teams in the regular season (NDSU, WIU, USD). This year, it's still possible we don't have a single win over a playoff team. Montana state could still miss the field easily, and if we beat ISUr and then they lose to UNI on 11/3, the redbirds will finish 7-4 with a non DI win. Essentially, they'll be 6-4, and firmly on the bubble and most likely out. We definitely might have better losses this year, but we may not have as many good wins either.

[WestSideRabbit]

Re: Illinois State

Does anybody know what the isu injury situation is?

They are expected to be at full strength besides a reserve defensive tackle. https://www.pantagraph.com/sports/co...1a137a168.html

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Illinois State

They are expected to be at full strength besides a reserve defensive tackle. https://www.pantagraph.com/sports/co...1a137a168.html

Thanks!

[WestSideRabbit]

Re: Illinois State

Here's my preview: https://jackrabbitillustrated.blogsp...ois-state.html

Good team overall. The defense has been WAY better than anyone expected.
Run first (James Robinson) but the Memphis transfer QB can certainly pass the ball. His #1 target is Spencer Schnell who is finally a senior. Good and HUGE offensive line.
Defensively they run a 3/4 hybrid. Very young on the defensive line. Linebackers are the strength of the defense. They send plenty of exotic blitzes from every level of the defense.
Special teams are bad outside of Schnell as a punt returner.

For the Jacks to win they will have to stop the run and get ISU into 3rd and longs. Make the QB win and don't let Robinson gash us.

I have no idea if our offense can move the ball or find the end zone this week. Hearing rumors that we are down another starter on offense. Maybe Genant gets back and brings some physicality to the group.