2018 Season Expectations and Predictions

[thumper_76]

This season will be a very exciting one IMO due to the amount of unknowns we have in replacing the obvious departures in star power but still having a core of some good veteran players returning and some exciting young talent coming up. On top of that the entire FCS landscape is filled with a lot of unknowns compared to the previous year IMO while the MVFC specifically is at minimum filled with questions outside of NDSU and honestly looks like it could be a bit of a down year. What does everyone think will happen? Beyond that, what are your expectations for this year to be a success?

[CappinHard]

Re: 2018 Season Expectations and Predictions

This season will be a very exciting one IMO due to the amount of unknowns we have in replacing the obvious departures in star power but still having a core of some good veteran players returning and some exciting young talent coming up. On top of that the entire FCS landscape is filled with a lot of unknowns compared to the previous year IMO while the MVFC specifically is at minimum filled with questions outside of NDSU and honestly looks like it could be a bit of a down year. What does everyone think will happen? Beyond that, what are your expectations for this year to be a success?

Imo, the benchmark is 8-3. 9 wins or more is a success (and would get us a seed). 7 wins or less is a failure (even if we get in the playoffs with 6 or 7 wins).

Looking at the schedule, it seems like 9-2 should almost be the benchmark, but I lowered it by one because there are a lot of unknowns and you don't know how young/inexperienced players are going to step into big roles. The only games I'm actually worried about would be @ ISU, @ NDSU, and @ UNI. With the way our home schedule shaped up this year, I would be really disappointed with any home loss. Montana State was the only one I was worried about, but with the turmoil they're dealing with, we had better be 6-0 at home this year. If not, #firestig #fireallthecoaches #firesell #shutdownSDSU.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: 2018 Season Expectations and Predictions

In addition to the road games listed in the above post as a concern, I'd throw in @ISUr. We don't play well there, at all. We've had better luck in Cedar Falls lately. In theory, we should go 6-0 at home this year, but the last time that happened was 2012. I have a gut feeling we will slip up against someone we shouldn't. I think we'll be 8-3, with an equal chance at 9-2 or 7-4. If we are 8-3 with a win over Iowa State or Ndsu, I think we get a 7/8 seed.

I also agree that this is going to be a down year for the Valley as a whole. My guess is 4 teams in the playoffs, and one is seeded. I'd guess that those 4 teams will be SDSU, NDSU, WIU, and UNI. If our D can become consistent, and our O can find a way to remain productive, I see no reason that this isn't a playoff team. We have a lot of maturity on the defensive side of the ball this year, especially in the back end, and I think that'll be a factor in our success. We also developed a very decent run game last year, and if we can build off of that this season, we'll be in good shape.

If the Jacks make the playoffs and are unseeded, I would guess that they'll be matched up in the first round with either SUU, Idaho, NAU, or the Pioneer champ (if it isn't San Diego), with the winner going to either Fargo or Ogden to play Weber (who I think will be a top 4 seed).

If we get a low seed, I think we get fed to Fargo after hosting a game, and if we get a top 4 seed, we will be given the 4 to eventually play in Fargo in the semifinals. I think all roads lead to Fargo this year.

That's what I think will happen.

My three hot takes:
1) For the second year in a row, neither school from Montana makes the field
2) JMU is an unseeded at large in 2018
3) SIU finishes above USD in the Valley

All of those are likely incorrect, but I thought I'd throw them in anyways...

[98Jackfarmer]

Re: 2018 Season Expectations and Predictions

I think its all going to come down to our QB. With that said, I would guess 7-4, or 6-5. The schedule is tough. Call me a hater, but I am not confident in what he can do, without a change in the system. Make him run more, take your chances he doesn't get destroyed is our only option IMO. His passing accuracy isn't very good.

[CappinHard]

Re: 2018 Season Expectations and Predictions

I think its all going to come down to our QB. With that said, I would guess 7-4, or 6-5. The schedule is tough. Call me a hater, but I am not confident in what he can do, without a change in the system. Make him run more, take your chances he doesn't get destroyed is our only option IMO. His passing accuracy isn't very good.

You don't think by chance that the most recent game you watched has anything to do with your take, does it? Here's a link for you to check out. https://www.davemanuel.com/investor-.../recency-bias/

Even when you include the JMU game, Christion's stats are still pretty good (58% completion percentage, 35 TDs to 14 INTs, 147.6 Efficiency rating). Because it was such a bad game, in terms of statistics it brought him back to the middle of the pack in the MVFC and around the top 20 in the FCS. Keep in mind that most of the other QBs only had 10-12 games on their statistics, while Christion had 14 and played against much tougher competition into the playoffs.

Now, you take out the JMU game, and Christion's stats are really good (60% completion percentage, 33 TDs to 8 INTs, 155.7 Efficiency rating). This brings him up in the top 2 in the MVFC and top 10 in the FCS. If that isn't good enough for you, then I feel sorry for you, because you're going to have a lot of disappointment in your life.

Yes, he had a bad game against JMU, but our O line got absolutely dominated in that game. Christion had nowhere to run and was under constant pressure. There's a reason JMU went to the championship. The only thing that could beat JMU was a solid ground and pound offense (NDSU). Between their D line and D backs, a team that relied on the passing game was going to have a tough time against them. Here's to hoping we can find a nice balance this year, as we have a good stable of RBs. Hopefully our O line is up to the task. I'm guessing Eck will have them ready to go. Our 2017 average of 176 rushing yards per game isn't enough. We need to average over 200 for sure, maybe even 225 to be successful this year. That will help open up the passing game as well.

[RabbitObsessed]

Re: 2018 Season Expectations and Predictions

If QB is our weakness, we are either screwed or everything else turned out perfect. I think the majority of losses will be defense related. Again, I think we'll struggle to generate any sort of pressure up front and will have trouble getting off the field on third down. If we have a weakness on offense, it will be the line. Since I'm an eternal pessimist, I'll predict 7 wins. Hope I'm wrong again!

[98Jackfarmer]

Re: 2018 Season Expectations and Predictions

Your probably right, I am jaded from the last game. I realize he is only one member of the team. But I am basing my prediction off the assumption our defense will be mediocre. Thus, we will once again need to put up a lot of points. And while I believe (hope) our running game will improve, he is still the biggest piece of the pie. IMO

[BTownJack]

Re: 2018 Season Expectations and Predictions

You don't think by chance that the most recent game you watched has anything to do with your take, does it? Here's a link for you to check out. https://www.davemanuel.com/investor-.../recency-bias/

Even when you include the JMU game, Christion's stats are still pretty good (58% completion percentage, 35 TDs to 14 INTs, 147.6 Efficiency rating). Because it was such a bad game, in terms of statistics it brought him back to the middle of the pack in the MVFC and around the top 20 in the FCS. Keep in mind that most of the other QBs only had 10-12 games on their statistics, while Christion had 14 and played against much tougher competition into the playoffs.

Now, you take out the JMU game, and Christion's stats are really good (60% completion percentage, 33 TDs to 8 INTs, 155.7 Efficiency rating). This brings him up in the top 2 in the MVFC and top 10 in the FCS. If that isn't good enough for you, then I feel sorry for you, because you're going to have a lot of disappointment in your life.

Yes, he had a bad game against JMU, but our O line got absolutely dominated in that game. Christion had nowhere to run and was under constant pressure. There's a reason JMU went to the championship. The only thing that could beat JMU was a solid ground and pound offense (NDSU). Between their D line and D backs, a team that relied on the passing game was going to have a tough time against them. Here's to hoping we can find a nice balance this year, as we have a good stable of RBs. Hopefully our O line is up to the task. I'm guessing Eck will have them ready to go. Our 2017 average of 176 rushing yards per game isn't enough. We need to average over 200 for sure, maybe even 225 to be successful this year. That will help open up the passing game as well.

Rep points given. I was too lazy to look up the stats but I'd take our QB over any other FCS QB in the country right now. Like, it isn't really even close.

[Southeast]

Re: 2018 Season Expectations and Predictions

Here's how I would handicap it:

11-0 2% chance
10-1 8%
9-2 15%
8-3 25%
7-4 25%
6-5 15%
5-5 (or worse) 10%

The difference between going 7-1 and 5-3 in the MVFC games is typically a couple luckly (or unlucky) bounces of the ball. The margin for error is pretty small among the top five teams. I obviously hope for more, but it would be hard to complain about 8-3 with a couple playoff wins considering the NFL talent we lost.

[Jackedforlife]

Re: 2018 Season Expectations and Predictions

I think the biggest question mark we have is the interior D-line and whoever is opposite Earith. the DTs are unproven because the likely starters are underclassmen but we should have a solid rotation of 4 guys there. The back 7 of that D should be the best we've ever put on the field and there is depth there too.

On offense we don't have any proven true starpower(yet) but the line is going to be solid and deep. The RB room has potentially 3-4 guys that are starter quality, TEs should produce too. The WRs could end up being the deepest group out there with 6-7 guys having the ability to produce good numbers. we may not have any guys with gaudy statlines but it's going to be difficult to focus on one area...oh, AND we bring back a veteran qb that is basically rewriting the QB record books.

Throw in a solid special teams...punting should continue to help flip the field...FG kicking solid...talent and athleticism to continue to improve coverage units. And the fact that there are two RS freshman that I've heard are as dynamic a returner as Cade.

I'll go with my optimistic side and predict 8-3 regular season but throw in the caveat that our losses won't be blowouts like we've seen in the past. Might not make the championship but I think the Semi's is very realistic.

[WestSideRabbit]

Re: 2018 Season Expectations and Predictions

I think the biggest question mark we have is the interior D-line and whoever is opposite Earith. the DTs are unproven because the likely starters are underclassmen but we should have a solid rotation of 4 guys there. The back 7 of that D should be the best we've ever put on the field and there is depth there too.

On offense we don't have any proven true starpower(yet) but the line is going to be solid and deep. The RB room has potentially 3-4 guys that are starter quality, TEs should produce too. The WRs could end up being the deepest group out there with 6-7 guys having the ability to produce good numbers. we may not have any guys with gaudy statlines but it's going to be difficult to focus on one area...oh, AND we bring back a veteran qb that is basically rewriting the QB record books.

Throw in a solid special teams...punting should continue to help flip the field...FG kicking solid...talent and athleticism to continue to improve coverage units. And the fact that there are two RS freshman that I've heard are as dynamic a returner as Cade.

I'll go with my optimistic side and predict 8-3 regular season but throw in the caveat that our losses won't be blowouts like we've seen in the past. Might not make the championship but I think the Semi's is very realistic.

I agree that interior d-line is the biggest area of concern. Lots of unknown. It could be a disaster, it could be average, or it could be great for the next three years with so much young talent. Xavier Ward really improved as the season went along. Krolikowski was the best defensive player in spring ball regardless of position. Stacker and Hildahl may be better in more of a rotation. Who knows? They'll sure get a good test against Iowa State and their powerful running back. Baptism by fire or however the saying goes.

[JACKGUYII]

Re: 2018 Season Expectations and Predictions

I see in Zimmer's article today that Zach Lujan is the new running backs coach after departure of John Johnson. Also Austin Barrett has move to offensive line. Any word if Daniel Calender has bulked up in the off-season?

[Jackedforlife]

Re: 2018 Season Expectations and Predictions

I see in Zimmer's article today that Zach Lujan is the new running backs coach after departure of John Johnson. Also Austin Barrett has move to offensive line. Any word if Daniel Calender has bulked up in the off-season?

I won't go so far as to say Callender has "bulked" up...I believe he's added about 10+ pounds of muscle...it's where he has added it. His chest and back are considerably broader and his arms as well. It's been a couple months since I've seen him so I can only imagine that has continued this summer. I know his mama has been feeding him like crazy.

I think that kid hits 250ish by next year and he will be unstoppable...probably be at 260-270 by his senior season.

[CappinHard]

Re: 2018 Season Expectations and Predictions

I won't go so far as to say Callender has "bulked" up...I believe he's added about 10+ pounds of muscle...it's where he has added it. His chest and back are considerably broader and his arms as well. It's been a couple months since I've seen him so I can only imagine that has continued this summer. I know his mama has been feeding him like crazy.

I think that kid hits 250ish by next year and he will be unstoppable...probably be at 260-270 by his senior season.

This is good to hear. It seems like he's got the body to be an NFL-caliber player as long as he continues on the right trend and backs it up with on the field production. It would be really fun to see him get on the field a lot this year and pile up some sacks.

[CappinHard]

Re: 2018 Season Expectations and Predictions

Here's how I would handicap it:

11-0 2% chance
10-1 8%
9-2 15%
8-3 25%
7-4 25%
6-5 15%
5-5 (or worse) 10%

The difference between going 7-1 and 5-3 in the MVFC games is typically a couple luckly (or unlucky) bounces of the ball. The margin for error is pretty small among the top five teams. I obviously hope for more, but it would be hard to complain about 8-3 with a couple playoff wins considering the NFL talent we lost.

Now this is what I'm talking about... next step... place some bets with guys on here that think we're going 7-4 or 6-5... How about it 98Jackfarmer?

Here is how I see it, which is pretty close to yours, just more middle weighted and not so bottom weighted. With our home schedule, I find it very hard to believe we go 5-6 or even 6-5.:

11-0 2% chance
10-1 8%
9-2 20%
8-3 40%
7-4 20%
6-5 8%
5-6 (or worse) 2%

Put it this way... if you could bet on our regular season win total, I think the line would be set right at 8.