Seed Scenarios

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Seed Scenarios

I'd be interested in the rationale for seeding the Bison above the Jacks in that scenario. Seems like the only explanation would be that the committee is living in the past

Only rational thing I can think of is that they would have beat the two teams that beat us? Their non-con win over EWU is better than ours over MSU, but neither are great wins. There really would be no fair way they'd get seeded higher if both are 9-2. We'd be co champions with the same record, be head to head winners, and have wins over at least 3, and maybe even 4, playoff teams (NDSU, ISU, WIU and maybe USD), while theyd have wins over 2 for sure, and maybe 3 playoff teams (UNI, WIU, and maybe USD).

[jakejc795]

Re: Seed Scenarios

TIME OUT!


the "Almighty Bison" haven't won yet. That would certainly be a factor. If we win and they lose there is a case for us to be seeded above them so it's possible the road could travel through brookings. But 1st things first lets take care of the prairie dogs.

FWIW I think the Bison lose next week

I'd be interested in the rationale for seeding the Bison above the Jacks in that scenario. Seems like the only explanation would be that the committee is living in the past

[slosho]

Re: Seed Scenarios

I've been of the opinion that the only way that SDSU and NDSU get put on the opposite side of the bracket is if they are #1 and #2 seeds. Since they play one another every year, that will never happen.

TIME OUT!


the "Almighty Bison" haven't won yet.(it's like y'all are handing them the W next week) That would certainly be a factor. If we win and they lose there is a case for us to be seeded above them so it's possible the road could travel through brookings. But 1st things first lets take care of the prairie dogs.

FWIW I think the Bison lose next week

[jakejc795]

Re: Seed Scenarios

I don’t think that’s true tbh. Mostly because it’s the first time I’ve ever seen that sentence uttered or written by anyone. Odds are that Haley got confused IMO. No way that the writers in Fargo, Zimmer, and every FCS fan in the country missed that rule change. Has to be a rule change too, considering last years shenanigans. I am of the opinion that once we get past the quarters it’s not the committees job to avoid matchups at that point.


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Verbiage is available here, and it looks like you are correct.

Primary consideration would be that any of the Valley teams not play each other through the quarterfinals due to being in same conference and playing during regular season.

[SoDakJack]

Re: Seed Scenarios

I've been of the opinion that the only way that SDSU and NDSU get put on the opposite side of the bracket is if they are #1 and #2 seeds. Since they play one another every year, that will never happen.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Seed Scenarios

I don’t think that’s true tbh. Mostly because it’s the first time I’ve ever seen that sentence uttered or written by anyone. Odds are that Haley got confused IMO. No way that the writers in Fargo, Zimmer, and every FCS fan in the country missed that rule change. Has to be a rule change too, considering last years shenanigans. I am of the opinion that once we get past the quarters it’s not the committees job to avoid matchups at that point.


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Also agree with that. You can't complain about conference rematches against great teams deep in the playoffs. SDSU and NDSU probably shouldn't have to play each other before the semis this year. But after that, we have to win the games in front of us, no matter who or where they are. As I mentioned earlier, given the choice between a semifinal @Fargo or a semifinal @JMU this year, the Jacks want the trip to Fargo, not Harrisonburg.

As a fan, I'd rather see us go to JMU and get to play some new teams in the playoff. But for the team's competitive advantage, playing in a building we've been in alot against a team we've played alot and have beaten (both home and away) recently has some competitive advantages for us.

Best case scenario for us at this point is quarterfinal game against someone not named JMU or NDSU. That game can be in Brookings or on the road. I like our chances either way.

[thumper_76]

Re: Seed Scenarios

Bumping this as there is still a lot of discussion about us being placed on the bison side if the bracket. According to this, it can't happen. Would obviously be a new rule this year. Thoughts?

I don’t think that’s true tbh. Mostly because it’s the first time I’ve ever seen that sentence uttered or written by anyone. Odds are that Haley got confused IMO. No way that the writers in Fargo, Zimmer, and every FCS fan in the country missed that rule change. Has to be a rule change too, considering last years shenanigans. I am of the opinion that once we get past the quarters it’s not the committees job to avoid matchups at that point.


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[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Seed Scenarios

If we win next weekend, we will have a seed. I don't think that winning and not being seeded is a possibility at this point. But I do agree that there is a little evidence to suggest SDSU will ever get a fair road in the playoffs.

Since 2012, of our 5 post season appearances, the Jacks have bent sent to Fargo or would have gone to fargo with a win (2015) in 4 out of five years, even when seeded with a bye. The one year we got a different draw, only two MVFC teams made the field due to some crazy tie breaking scenarios, and the committee pretty much had to place them on opposite sides.

I'm not sure if the committee actively schemes against the MVFC, but due to their 400 mile bus rule and their mandate to save travel costs, the position of SDSU's geography will always screw us over. We do not have a plethora of teams within 400 miles of us from out of conference that we could potentially pair up with in the post season, and thus we are left with the teams that are near us. Our unfortunate reality is that the team near us is one of the most prolific college football dynasties in the country. It sucks, but if we are going to win a national championship in the FCS, the body of evidence suggests that we will have to beat NDSU to fo it. And that game will almost certainly be in Fargo.

In a fair world, a 9-2 SDSU this season would be a 4/5 seed and either hosting Sam Houston or traveling down there for a quarter final game, with the winner onto JMU in the semi finals.

With the conspiracy theory nature to seedings in the past though, look for NDSU and SDSU to be a 6/3, a 4/5, or a 7/2 match up so the NCAA can save a few bucks on jet fuel.

[Gojacks2487]

Re: Seed Scenarios

My thoughts are that that committee will ignore this rule or do everything possible to make sure we aren't seeded (regardless if we win or lose next weekend) so we have to go to Fargo.

However illogical this might sound. It is my feeling that SDSU will always have a less than desirable playoff draw.

I thought this also, won’t hold my breath until it actually happens. Almost like they are trying to avoid a all valley championship game.

[mmiller_34]

Re: Seed Scenarios

Bumping this as there is still a lot of discussion about us being placed on the bison side if the bracket. According to this, it can't happen. Would obviously be a new rule this year. Thoughts?

My thoughts are that that committee will ignore this rule or do everything possible to make sure we aren't seeded (regardless if we win or lose next weekend) so we have to go to Fargo.

However illogical this might sound. It is my feeling that SDSU will always have a less than desirable playoff draw.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Seed Scenarios

That's interesting if true, and it must be a new rule this year. But I'm not sure why we haven't heard about it until this point? That's the kind of rule change that gets talked about a lot in the off season, just as the "balancing bracket" rule was talked about a lot in the off season following 5 MVFC teams being placed in the same bracket. I'd like to see how the NCAA defines and enforces that rule.

I don't really want to trust Craig Hailey's word on it.

[He hate me]

Re: Seed Scenarios

http://www.fcs.football/cfb/story.as...20959700985304

Maybe this has already been discussed on here, but towards the end of the linked article, it states that two seeded teams from the same conference will be placed on opposite sides of the bracket. This is something that I was not aware of.

Bumping this as there is still a lot of discussion about us being placed on the bison side if the bracket. According to this, it can't happen. Would obviously be a new rule this year. Thoughts?

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Seed Scenarios

Forgot to mention that NC A&T won yesterday, clinching the MEAC title and relegating themselves to the celebration bowl and out of the playoffs. Weber and SUU also won big. One if those two is likely to get a seed.

Other games of note for the last weekend:

JMU @ Elon: I think a JMU win is more helpful here in that it knocks Elon down the seed line in the event that the Jacks are 8-3. Less competition is better here.

Stony Brook @ Maine: We need to hope Maine wins this one to give SB their third loss and knock them down the seed line. See the Elon explanation.

NAU @ SUU: If SUU wins this, they'll be the lone seeded team out of the big sky. They have the head to head over weber, and have a better resume. We want NAU in the upset to here to help our chances shoyld we end up 8-3.

Idaho state at Weber: If weber wins and SUU loses, the wildcats will be the seeded BIG Sky team. A Bengal win would be helpful to us here.

Monmouth at Kennesaw: Both teams are 8-1, but play in the Big South, which is a traditionally weak conference. The winner is in the playoffs, but there hasn't been any indication that either team has a shot at a seed. I'm not sure if there is one scenario that is more helpful here than another for the Jacks. If these teams aren't seeded, this game doesn't have too much impact for us. If they are though, the eine of this game would likely be the 8 seed.

Furman @ Samford: No direct seed inplications, but the winner is in with ease and the loser will be nervous on selection Sunday. Samford is the lone FCS team to beat wofford, so Samford being left out might hurt Wofford SoS a little

Last but not least is the mess developing in the southland:
The top four teams in the standings down there finish by playing the bottom half of the conference. Barring any major upsets, the standing will go:

UCA at 10-1 w/ head to head over SHSU (Best win)

SHSU at 10-1 w/ h2h over McNesse and Nicholls. Best win is over 5-5 Richmond

Nicholls State at 9-2 with the h2h over McNesse, which is also their best win.

McNeese at 9-2 with absolutely no good wins and no wins over the other top 3 conference teams.

The committee has already indicated they plan on seeding SHSU and UCA. The question is, if the right teams lose (the Jacks at 8-3 in this scenario), is it possible a third Southland team gets seeded? NSU and MSU would have the weakest 9-2 record out of anyone in the field, and I'd have to rate them behind an 8-3 SDSU, an 8-3 SUU, an 8-3 Elon, and an 8-3 WIU team. I don't think the number 3 or 4 team from the Southland has any shot at a seed, but we'll see.

The other issue here is that this scenario is exactly what some people are talking about with USD getting left out shoyld they lose to the jacks next week.

There are going to be two at large teams from the SOUTHLAND and maybe a third, at least two from the Big Sky and more than likely 3, at least 3 from the Valley, at least 3 from the CAA, at least two from the SoCon, maybe one from the Ohio Valley, not to mention the 10 auto bids.

Using the conservative numbers from those conferences listed above, that's 23 out of 24 slots taken. And more than likely, it won't be the conservative outcome. USD is going to be in serious troube of they lose Saturday.

The big sky is very likely to get SUU, WSU, and either Montana or NAU (or both if it fell just right). That's 3 almost for sure.

Southland is going to get their top two, but you'd have to belive at least one of the other two will get in as well. That's 3 for sure.

CAA will have JMU, Elon and Stony Brook are in for sure, and Delaware and UNH are definitely in with a win. That's 3 at least.

Socon: Wofford is in for sure, and Furman and Samford are both in with a win. One of them is probably in already at this point. That's 2 for sure.

CCSU is in from the NEC.

Winner of Monmouth and Kennesaw is in, and loser is on the bubble.

San Diego is in from the pioneer

Colgate from the Patriot is in

From the Ohio valley, JSU is in for sure, and maybe APSU.

From the valley, NDSU, WIU, and SDSU are in for sure, and UNI, ISU, and USD are in with another win. Let's say that 4 is a certainty from the valley.

By my count, 20 teams have locked up a spot. There will be at least 8 teams fighting for the last 4 spots. They are:

UNI
USD
Mcneese
Monmouth/Kennesaw loser
Furman/Samford
UNH
Delaware
Austin Peay

Delaware, UNH, and UNI all may have a better resume than USD. Samford has a great win over wofford. McNeese, though they have zero good wins, also has a 9-2 record from a multi-bid league.

Long story short, a USD loss and they are either the last team in or the first team out.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Seed Scenarios

if we beat usd and if ndsu loses next week I would think we would be the higher seed.

We would be higher in that scenario. If both win next week, ndsu will likely be the number 2 seed, while sdsu will be 5 or 6 (putting us on the road for the quarters). There's an outside shot wed get a 4 seed, allowing us to host two games, as opposed to just one. If we end up as the 7 seed, assuming both ndsu and sdsu win next week, that will be a sign that the committee is screwing us again. Since ndsu will likely be a 2 seed, they'd have to actively move us down in the rankings to match us with ndsu in the quarters (7 and 2). Right now, there's been no indication via the rankings that we will be any lower than 6 if everything holds chalk and we win out. We were number 7, we won today, and number 6 lost. Win next week, and you'd have to think we remain at least 6, and maybe move up. If NDSU is the 2, which is highly likely, we aren't going to Fargo as the 6 or 5 seed. If they are the 3, which is the next most likely, SDSU as the 6 (also likely) would have us going up north again.

Basically, the paring with NDSU (in order of likelihood of both win out) are:

2. Ndsu 6. SDSU (no trip to fargo until the semis)
2. NDSU 5. SDSU (no trip to fargo at all)
3. Ndsu 6. SDSU (trip to Fargo in quarters)
3. NDSU 5. SDSU (No trip to Fargo at all)
2. NDSU 7. SDSU (Trip to Fargo in quarters) -If the committee is as transparent as they are trying to seem, this can't happen since they'd have to drop us in the rankings after two straight wins to fo it. But it wouldn't shock me.

[jakejc795]

Re: Seed Scenarios

if we beat usd and if ndsu loses next week I would think we would be the higher seed.

That seems logical as the Jacks would have defeated the Bison and the team that defeated NDSU to end the season, but committees commonly behave illogically.