Seed Scenarios

[CappinHard]

Re: Seed Scenarios

No team, not even the mighty Bison would get a seed going 8-3. SDSU and USD have to win out if they hope to be seeded.

SDSU got a seed at 8-3 last year.

[Jackedforlife]

Re: Seed Scenarios

SDSU got a seed at 8-3 last year.

True, but I think there will be far more 1 and 2 loss teams than last year. That said, if we go 9-2 and the bison go 10-1 we stand a great chance of getting the 4. I know margin isn't supposed to play in but if we decisively beat the Redbirds and Yotes I think we jump Central AR even if they end with 1 loss. Quality in the MVFC is too much.

[jacksfan29]

Re: Seed Scenarios

SDSU got a seed at 8-3 last year.

Last year is not this year. It won't happen this year.

The BSC could very well have two teams at 9-2 to finish the year (SUU, Weber). At least one would get a seed over an 8-3 MVFC. The SLC have two seeds locked up, they could have two others finish 9-2, one is McNeese. The committee will take a 9-2 McNeese over an 8-3 MVFC. We need to win out if we want a seed this year. The Bison need to split. USD need to win out. There are too many teams in what the committee will consider power conferences who will finish 9-2.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Seed Scenarios

Last year is not this year. It won't happen this year.

The BSC could very well have two teams at 9-2 to finish the year (SUU, Weber). At least one would get a seed over an 8-3 MVFC. The SLC have two seeds locked up, they could have two others finish 9-2, one is McNeese. The committee will take a 9-2 McNeese over an 8-3 MVFC. We need to win out if we want a seed this year. The Bison need to split. USD need to win out. There are too many teams in what the committee will consider power conferences who will finish 9-2.

Based on how the committee has been ranking SUU, the big sky team with the best resume, to this point, I'd seriously doubt that they're a shoe in for a seed at 9-2. Elon still has two very posable games left, stony brook has a weak SoS with few quality wins. Weber is the same story. Assuming all hold to chalk, about 6 of the seeds will be spoken for, barring some big upsets to end the year. The teams fighting for those last two spots would be an 8-3 SDSU, a 9-2 Elon, a 9-2 Elon, a 9-2 Weber and maybe a 8-3 USD.

Based on how the committee is ranking these teams right now, I don't know how you can possibly say there's no shot. I don't think it's a great shot at 8-3, but I'd say it's about the same as last year: wed need two teams to lose at the right time, or based in SoS, maybe just one team.

Also, McNeese at 9-2 isn't happening over an 8-3 SDSU. If there was that chance, they'd have been included in the last poll. They're 7-2 right now. If they're on track for a seed, I'd think we would have seen them ranked in the top 10 by this point. There are too many other worthy teams ahead of them to justify them at this point. A 9-2 Mcneese is behind all the other potential 9-2 teams this year. SB, SUU, Elon, SDSU, and WSU all have a claim to seed before MSU.

[He hate me]

Re: Seed Scenarios

http://www.fcs.football/cfb/story.as...20959700985304

Maybe this has already been discussed on here, but towards the end of the linked article, it states that two seeded teams from the same conference will be placed on opposite sides of the bracket. This is something that I was not aware of.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Seed Scenarios

Update:

Elon lost today at UNH, WSU won over Portland state, and SUU is currently winning. The jacks should move up to at least number 6, and may possibly jump SHSU. who barely won over a bad ACU tram today. There will be no poll coming out this week, so we won't know for sure, but functionally we can assume we are in the 5-6 range going into the game in Verm town. If we can close out the season, we are going to be looking at a top 4 seed.

[Reality]

Re: Seed Scenarios

Good work on this Mr. Tibbs! My only addition to this is that the NCAA's major concern is money, so it is very unlikely that SDSU won't be going through Fargo - regardless of what happens on the field.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Seed Scenarios

I think the best we can hope for is to avoid fargo through the quarters. We have to wait and see 1) If we hold up our end and get to that point, and 2) the NCAA doesn't screw us over. It'll be interesting to see.

[goon]

Re: Seed Scenarios

I think the best we can hope for is to avoid fargo through the quarters. We have to wait and see 1) If we hold up our end and get to that point, and 2) the NCAA doesn't screw us over. It'll be interesting to see.

if we beat usd and if ndsu loses next week I would think we would be the higher seed.

[jakejc795]

Re: Seed Scenarios

if we beat usd and if ndsu loses next week I would think we would be the higher seed.

That seems logical as the Jacks would have defeated the Bison and the team that defeated NDSU to end the season, but committees commonly behave illogically.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Seed Scenarios

if we beat usd and if ndsu loses next week I would think we would be the higher seed.

We would be higher in that scenario. If both win next week, ndsu will likely be the number 2 seed, while sdsu will be 5 or 6 (putting us on the road for the quarters). There's an outside shot wed get a 4 seed, allowing us to host two games, as opposed to just one. If we end up as the 7 seed, assuming both ndsu and sdsu win next week, that will be a sign that the committee is screwing us again. Since ndsu will likely be a 2 seed, they'd have to actively move us down in the rankings to match us with ndsu in the quarters (7 and 2). Right now, there's been no indication via the rankings that we will be any lower than 6 if everything holds chalk and we win out. We were number 7, we won today, and number 6 lost. Win next week, and you'd have to think we remain at least 6, and maybe move up. If NDSU is the 2, which is highly likely, we aren't going to Fargo as the 6 or 5 seed. If they are the 3, which is the next most likely, SDSU as the 6 (also likely) would have us going up north again.

Basically, the paring with NDSU (in order of likelihood of both win out) are:

2. Ndsu 6. SDSU (no trip to fargo until the semis)
2. NDSU 5. SDSU (no trip to fargo at all)
3. Ndsu 6. SDSU (trip to Fargo in quarters)
3. NDSU 5. SDSU (No trip to Fargo at all)
2. NDSU 7. SDSU (Trip to Fargo in quarters) -If the committee is as transparent as they are trying to seem, this can't happen since they'd have to drop us in the rankings after two straight wins to fo it. But it wouldn't shock me.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Seed Scenarios

Forgot to mention that NC A&T won yesterday, clinching the MEAC title and relegating themselves to the celebration bowl and out of the playoffs. Weber and SUU also won big. One if those two is likely to get a seed.

Other games of note for the last weekend:

JMU @ Elon: I think a JMU win is more helpful here in that it knocks Elon down the seed line in the event that the Jacks are 8-3. Less competition is better here.

Stony Brook @ Maine: We need to hope Maine wins this one to give SB their third loss and knock them down the seed line. See the Elon explanation.

NAU @ SUU: If SUU wins this, they'll be the lone seeded team out of the big sky. They have the head to head over weber, and have a better resume. We want NAU in the upset to here to help our chances shoyld we end up 8-3.

Idaho state at Weber: If weber wins and SUU loses, the wildcats will be the seeded BIG Sky team. A Bengal win would be helpful to us here.

Monmouth at Kennesaw: Both teams are 8-1, but play in the Big South, which is a traditionally weak conference. The winner is in the playoffs, but there hasn't been any indication that either team has a shot at a seed. I'm not sure if there is one scenario that is more helpful here than another for the Jacks. If these teams aren't seeded, this game doesn't have too much impact for us. If they are though, the eine of this game would likely be the 8 seed.

Furman @ Samford: No direct seed inplications, but the winner is in with ease and the loser will be nervous on selection Sunday. Samford is the lone FCS team to beat wofford, so Samford being left out might hurt Wofford SoS a little

Last but not least is the mess developing in the southland:
The top four teams in the standings down there finish by playing the bottom half of the conference. Barring any major upsets, the standing will go:

UCA at 10-1 w/ head to head over SHSU (Best win)

SHSU at 10-1 w/ h2h over McNesse and Nicholls. Best win is over 5-5 Richmond

Nicholls State at 9-2 with the h2h over McNesse, which is also their best win.

McNeese at 9-2 with absolutely no good wins and no wins over the other top 3 conference teams.

The committee has already indicated they plan on seeding SHSU and UCA. The question is, if the right teams lose (the Jacks at 8-3 in this scenario), is it possible a third Southland team gets seeded? NSU and MSU would have the weakest 9-2 record out of anyone in the field, and I'd have to rate them behind an 8-3 SDSU, an 8-3 SUU, an 8-3 Elon, and an 8-3 WIU team. I don't think the number 3 or 4 team from the Southland has any shot at a seed, but we'll see.

The other issue here is that this scenario is exactly what some people are talking about with USD getting left out shoyld they lose to the jacks next week.

There are going to be two at large teams from the SOUTHLAND and maybe a third, at least two from the Big Sky and more than likely 3, at least 3 from the Valley, at least 3 from the CAA, at least two from the SoCon, maybe one from the Ohio Valley, not to mention the 10 auto bids.

Using the conservative numbers from those conferences listed above, that's 23 out of 24 slots taken. And more than likely, it won't be the conservative outcome. USD is going to be in serious troube of they lose Saturday.

The big sky is very likely to get SUU, WSU, and either Montana or NAU (or both if it fell just right). That's 3 almost for sure.

Southland is going to get their top two, but you'd have to belive at least one of the other two will get in as well. That's 3 for sure.

CAA will have JMU, Elon and Stony Brook are in for sure, and Delaware and UNH are definitely in with a win. That's 3 at least.

Socon: Wofford is in for sure, and Furman and Samford are both in with a win. One of them is probably in already at this point. That's 2 for sure.

CCSU is in from the NEC.

Winner of Monmouth and Kennesaw is in, and loser is on the bubble.

San Diego is in from the pioneer

Colgate from the Patriot is in

From the Ohio valley, JSU is in for sure, and maybe APSU.

From the valley, NDSU, WIU, and SDSU are in for sure, and UNI, ISU, and USD are in with another win. Let's say that 4 is a certainty from the valley.

By my count, 20 teams have locked up a spot. There will be at least 8 teams fighting for the last 4 spots. They are:

UNI
USD
Mcneese
Monmouth/Kennesaw loser
Furman/Samford
UNH
Delaware
Austin Peay

Delaware, UNH, and UNI all may have a better resume than USD. Samford has a great win over wofford. McNeese, though they have zero good wins, also has a 9-2 record from a multi-bid league.

Long story short, a USD loss and they are either the last team in or the first team out.

[He hate me]

Re: Seed Scenarios

http://www.fcs.football/cfb/story.as...20959700985304

Maybe this has already been discussed on here, but towards the end of the linked article, it states that two seeded teams from the same conference will be placed on opposite sides of the bracket. This is something that I was not aware of.

Bumping this as there is still a lot of discussion about us being placed on the bison side if the bracket. According to this, it can't happen. Would obviously be a new rule this year. Thoughts?

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Seed Scenarios

That's interesting if true, and it must be a new rule this year. But I'm not sure why we haven't heard about it until this point? That's the kind of rule change that gets talked about a lot in the off season, just as the "balancing bracket" rule was talked about a lot in the off season following 5 MVFC teams being placed in the same bracket. I'd like to see how the NCAA defines and enforces that rule.

I don't really want to trust Craig Hailey's word on it.

[mmiller_34]

Re: Seed Scenarios

Bumping this as there is still a lot of discussion about us being placed on the bison side if the bracket. According to this, it can't happen. Would obviously be a new rule this year. Thoughts?

My thoughts are that that committee will ignore this rule or do everything possible to make sure we aren't seeded (regardless if we win or lose next weekend) so we have to go to Fargo.

However illogical this might sound. It is my feeling that SDSU will always have a less than desirable playoff draw.