Seed Scenarios

[Mr_Tibbs]

Obviously there's a lot of football left to be played, but I do think we can pretty roughly gauge where the Jacks may land in the post season scenario based on the results of the next two weeks, both with our team, and some national teams.

As a reminder, this was the national power poll released on Thursday:
1. JMU - Beat unranked URI
2. NDSU - Lost to #10 SDSU
3. JSU - Beat unranked Murray State
4. UCA - Beat unranked Lamar
5. USD - Lost to # ORV UNI
6. Sam Houston - Beat unranked Incarnate Word
7.Elon - Beat unranked Towson
8. Wofford - Beat unranked Chattanooga
9. NAU - Lost to ORV Montana
10. SDSU - Beat #2 NDSU

Finishing 7-4:

If we lose our last two and go 7-4, we should be in the field with relative ease. However, there are a LOT of potential 7-4 teams out there, and though we will have the one of the best resumes of those 7-4 teams, we would finish in conference as the number 6 team in the tiebreaker scenarios. If we go 7-4, USD will be atleast 8-3, UNI (who has ISUb and MSU left) will be 7-4, ISUr would be at least 7-4 with the head-to-head tie breaker, and NDSU would be either at least 8-3 or higher.
Under this scenario, if WIU wins out, they'd be 8-3, and we would be sitting at sixth in the standings. The question becomes whether or not the committee will take six teams out of the valley. If this scenario unfolds, I'd feel pretty uneasy about making it in. There will likely be 5 eligible teams from the CAA, three from the southland, three from the southern and at least three from the big sky. 7-4 as the number 6 team in the Valley isn't a position we want to find ourselves in. FYI, if USD loses out, it's the exact same scenario for them (6th in conference). our potential saving grace will be the win over NDSU, the win over WIU, and a win over a potential playoff bound Duquesne. That will likely be one of the two best 7-4 resumes in teh country, along with UNI.


Finishing 8-3:

This might depend on which game we drop as to whether or not we get a seed. We were #10 before yesterdays win, and three teams ahead of us lost yesterday. I believe we will be around 5-6 in the poll that comes out this Wednesday. assuming we beat ISUr, we probably move up to about number 4 going into USD. If we drop that game in Verm, I'm not sure if we fall 5 spots and out of the top 8. It will depend on whether or not some of the game listed at the bottom bounce in our favor.
If we lose to ISUr, we would probably drop back to about 12 or so, after being bumped up a few spots from our NDSU win. If we are in the top 11 or so going into the USD game and we win convincingly down there, I'd think there's above a 50-50 chance we make it back into the top for seeding. Again, the right teams losing at the right time will be key.


Finishing 9-2:

Obviously, 9-2 in the Valley is going to get us a seed. The other potential 9-2 teams we would be competing with would be 1)Weber state, who hasn't beaten anyone that good, 2) Southern Utah, who would have a good road win against SFA, a win over playoff bound UNI, a win over playoff bound Weber state, and a win over potential playoff bound Northern Arizona. That's a pretty good resume, and if they finish 9-2 along with us, they may end up with more wins over playoff bound teams. 4) Stony Brook may end up at 9-2, but I think our resume will be stronger than theirs. Their only decent win is against a Richmond team that will likely miss out on the post season. No wins over JMU, Elon, UNH or Delaware (the other CAA playoff teams). 5) Elon at 9-2 would have a good win over Furman and either JMU or UNH. At 9-2, Elon would be ranked pretty close with us. 6) Wofford at 9-2 would have only one FCS loss, and would likely be ahead of the Jacks. They haven't looked great doing it, but they would have wins over Furman and Western Carolina (both Southern conference playoff teams), and one loss to another playoff team (Samford). Under that scenario, I'm not sure that we jump them. 7) 9-2 McNeese state would have no good wins, and two losses to playoff teams. A weak schedule means they would probably not jump any of the other 9-2 teams listed.

Teams that may be ranked ahead of a 9-2 SDSU:
The difficult part for a 9-2 SDSU is that most of the other 9-2 teams in field will only have one FCS loss. The YSU loss may be hurtful to us in some of these scenarios.*
11-0 or 10-1 JMU - Two tough games left with Richmond and Elon, but if they go 1-1 or better, they'll be a top two seed.
10-1 NDSU - Better record in the same conference. No way we jump them.
10-1 Sam Houston State - Weak schedule, but I still think the committee rewards them for their record. They have cupcake games left, and will likely stay where they are at in the polls. It will depend on how their SoS is evaluated.
10-1 UCA - No FCS losses and a win over SHSU. They also have no one tough left. They are a lock at 3-6. Same story with the SoS as SHSU.
9-2 Wofford - This one is tough. They would have the same record, but one loss will be to SEC South Carolina. The other is to a playoff bound Samford. Their losses would be better than ours at 9-2, so I think they stay ahead of us. Besides South Carolina, their last game is a cupcake against VMI. It's very likely they finish at 9-2.
10-1 Jacksonville state - No FCS losses, though it's a weak schedule. UCA
9-2 Southern Utah - This one is a toss up. They beat playoff bound UNI, Weber State, and may playoff bound NAU and a decent EWU team. They'd have one FCS loss and would be conference champions. The big sky is down this year, but I think that they will have a stronger resume (more wins over playoff teams ) than we will at 9-2. Depends on how the committee evaluates the Big Sky as a whole.
9-2 NDSU - We'd have the head to head, and a win over one of the other teams that beat them. They wouldn't have a bad loss like we do (YSU), but we would finish on a stronger note and have a share of the conference title. I think we would land above them in this scenario.

*We all know a 9-2 Valley team is a top 5 team in the country, but who knows how the committee will evaluate it this year.


Based on where everyone is playing right now, if we go 9-2, I'd expect the seeding to be:
1. JMU (11-0)
2. NDSU (10-1)
3. UCA (10-1)
4. JSU (10-1)
5. Wofford (9-2)
6. SDSU (9-2)
7. SHSU (10-1)
8. SUU (9-2)

If we go 8-3:
1. JMU (11-0)
2. NDSU (10-1)
3. UCA (10-1)
4. JSU (10-1)
5. Wofford (9-2)
6. SHSU (10-1)
7. SUU (9-2)
8. SDSU** (9-2)

** If SUU or Elon drop a game. 8-3 SDSU may have a stronger case than 9-2 Elon or a 9-2 Weber State. SUU at 9-2 will likely be ahead of us. If SUU does drop another game, we might move up to the 7, ahead of either 9-2 Stony Brook, 9-2 Elon, or 9-2 Weber.



Games of national interest over the next two weeks:

Elon at UNH - need Elon to drop a game ahead of their JMU game to knock them our of a seed.

NAU @ SUU - need NAU to win that to knock SUU off the seed line.

Weber state @ Idaho state - a Bengal win would knock WSU off the seed line

Elon @ JMU - A JMU win would place Elon at either 9-2 or 8-3 (depending on if they beat UNH the week before). Then 9-2 and us at 8-3 might give us the seed since our resume is better than theirs.

Stony Brook @ Maine - Stony Brook at 9-2 would be close between them and us for the last seed. Need them to lose this game to go 8-3

[CappinHard]

Re: Seed Scenarios

This is a very good and thorough post. The thing that really interests me is if USD gets a seed or at least makes the field, will we avoid being sent to Fargo again due to having another team in close proximity? Or will they double dip and match us up with USD first, then NDSU? I wish schools could offer to pay for travel costs to be exempt from regionalization. I am already dreading the bracket, regardless of how the season plays out. You would think that at some point they will be like "alright, we can't send them there again, can we?". I don't have much faith though.

[MontanaRabbit]

Re: Seed Scenarios

This is a very good and thorough post. The thing that really interests me is if USD gets a seed or at least makes the field, will we avoid being sent to Fargo again due to having another team in close proximity? Or will they double dip and match us up with USD first, then NDSU? I wish schools could offer to pay for travel costs to be exempt from regionalization. I am already dreading the bracket, regardless of how the season plays out. You would think that at some point they will be like "alright, we can't send them there again, can we?". I don't have much faith though.

Win enough games during the season and we won't have to go anywhere until Frisco. It sucks to continually be sent North but the fact is we have to beat them eventually.

[SoDakJack]

Re: Seed Scenarios

Win enough games during the season and we won't have to go anywhere until Frisco. It sucks to continually be sent North but the fact is we have to beat them eventually.

This.

I think this is why many of the fans get so bent out of shape about losing games like UNI @ home. SDSU is good enough to not have to travel for a playoff game until Frisco. But one game when they lose focus causes us to have to go north.

[MontanaRabbit]

Re: Seed Scenarios

This.

I think this is why many of the fans get so bent out of shape about losing games like UNI @ home. SDSU is good enough to not have to travel for a playoff game until Frisco. But one game when they lose focus causes us to have to go north.

Exactly.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Seed Scenarios

This is a very good and thorough post. The thing that really interests me is if USD gets a seed or at least makes the field, will we avoid being sent to Fargo again due to having another team in close proximity? Or will they double dip and match us up with USD first, then NDSU? I wish schools could offer to pay for travel costs to be exempt from regionalization. I am already dreading the bracket, regardless of how the season plays out. You would think that at some point they will be like "alright, we can't send them there again, can we?". I don't have much faith though.

I think if USD gets a seed, it'll be as an 8-3 team. I just don't see them beating both XDSU's. In that scenario, they'd likely be the 7 or 8, feeding into JMU or NDSU. I don't see how the committee wouldn't send them up to Fargo. If we aren't seeded, I'd assume we'd host Weber/NAU/San Diego and then go play in Verm. Winner onto fargo for the quarters. I also think the reverse scenario might work out if we get the seed and USD doesn't.

This may not be a popular opinion, but if we aren't seeded, I think our best chance will be to have to go on the road to an out of region team and get fed into a different pod. I could potentially see us playing @McNeese with the winner to SHSU or @Montana/NAU/Weber with the winner onto SUU. Those might be easier paths into the quarters unseeded than a home playoff game and a second round match at USD.

[goon]

Re: Seed Scenarios

I think if USD gets a seed, it'll be as an 8-3 team. I just don't see them beating both XDSU's. In that scenario, they'd likely be the 7 or 8, feeding into JMU or NDSU. I don't see how the committee wouldn't send them up to Fargo. If we aren't seeded, I'd assume we'd host Weber/NAU/San Diego and then go play in Verm. Winner onto fargo for the quarters. I also think the reverse scenario might work out if we get the seed and USD doesn't.

This may not be a popular opinion, but if we aren't seeded, I think our best chance will be to have to go on the road to an out of region team and get fed into a different pod. I could potentially see us playing @McNeese with the winner to SHSU or @Montana/NAU/Weber with the winner onto SUU. Those might be easier paths into the quarters unseeded than a home playoff game and a second round match at USD.

Who ever is lower will go to ndsu or usd or sdsu. No way they would send a regional team else where with potentially 2 top 8 seeds in the same area.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Seed Scenarios

Who ever is lower will go to ndsu or usd or sdsu. No way they would send a regional team else where with potentially 2 top 8 seeds in the same area.

Agreed. Our best chance at avoiding that would be to land somewhere around the 5 or 6 seed. If the bison win out, they'll be a top 2 seed, along with JMU. In that scenario, we'd probably have a second round home game against the winner of either USD vs. Big sky (NAU/SUU/Weber) or UNI vs. Big sky/Southland at large. Win that and we'd be facing UCA or JSU in the quarters.

I think we need to win out and hope the bison do the same. That might be our best chance at landing higher than the 7/8 line when the dust settles. We need Elon to lose another game, along with SUU and Weber. Do that and if we finish 9-2, I think we'd almost have to be higher than 7/8.

[WILDCAT]

Re: Seed Scenarios

Obviously there's a lot of football left to be played, but I do think we can pretty roughly gauge where the Jacks may land in the post season scenario based on the results of the next two weeks, both with our team, and some national teams.

As a reminder, this was the national power poll released on Thursday:
1. JMU - Beat unranked URI
2. NDSU - Lost to #10 SDSU
3. JSU - Beat unranked Murray State
4. UCA - Beat unranked Lamar
5. USD - Lost to # ORV UNI
6. Sam Houston - Beat unranked Incarnate Word
7.Elon - Beat unranked Towson
8. Wofford - Beat unranked Chattanooga
9. NAU - Lost to ORV Montana
10. SDSU - Beat #2 NDSU

Finishing 7-4:

If we lose our last two and go 7-4, we should be in the field with relative ease. However, there are a LOT of potential 7-4 teams out there, and though we will have the one of the best resumes of those 7-4 teams, we would finish in conference as the number 6 team in the tiebreaker scenarios. If we go 7-4, USD will be atleast 8-3, UNI (who has ISUb and MSU left) will be 7-4, ISUr would be at least 7-4 with the head-to-head tie breaker, and NDSU would be either at least 8-3 or higher.
Under this scenario, if WIU wins out, they'd be 8-3, and we would be sitting at sixth in the standings. The question becomes whether or not the committee will take six teams out of the valley. If this scenario unfolds, I'd feel pretty uneasy about making it in. There will likely be 5 eligible teams from the CAA, three from the southland, three from the southern and at least three from the big sky. 7-4 as the number 6 team in the Valley isn't a position we want to find ourselves in. FYI, if USD loses out, it's the exact same scenario for them (6th in conference). our potential saving grace will be the win over NDSU, the win over WIU, and a win over a potential playoff bound Duquesne. That will likely be one of the two best 7-4 resumes in teh country, along with UNI.


Finishing 8-3:

This might depend on which game we drop as to whether or not we get a seed. We were #10 before yesterdays win, and three teams ahead of us lost yesterday. I believe we will be around 5-6 in the poll that comes out this Wednesday. assuming we beat ISUr, we probably move up to about number 4 going into USD. If we drop that game in Verm, I'm not sure if we fall 5 spots and out of the top 8. It will depend on whether or not some of the game listed at the bottom bounce in our favor.
If we lose to ISUr, we would probably drop back to about 12 or so, after being bumped up a few spots from our NDSU win. If we are in the top 11 or so going into the USD game and we win convincingly down there, I'd think there's above a 50-50 chance we make it back into the top for seeding. Again, the right teams losing at the right time will be key.


Finishing 9-2:

Obviously, 9-2 in the Valley is going to get us a seed. The other potential 9-2 teams we would be competing with would be 1)Weber state, who hasn't beaten anyone that good, 2) Southern Utah, who would have a good road win against SFA, a win over playoff bound UNI, a win over playoff bound Weber state, and a win over potential playoff bound Northern Arizona. That's a pretty good resume, and if they finish 9-2 along with us, they may end up with more wins over playoff bound teams. 4) Stony Brook may end up at 9-2, but I think our resume will be stronger than theirs. Their only decent win is against a Richmond team that will likely miss out on the post season. No wins over JMU, Elon, UNH or Delaware (the other CAA playoff teams). 5) Elon at 9-2 would have a good win over Furman and either JMU or UNH. At 9-2, Elon would be ranked pretty close with us. 6) Wofford at 9-2 would have only one FCS loss, and would likely be ahead of the Jacks. They haven't looked great doing it, but they would have wins over Furman and Western Carolina (both Southern conference playoff teams), and one loss to another playoff team (Samford). Under that scenario, I'm not sure that we jump them. 7) 9-2 McNeese state would have no good wins, and two losses to playoff teams. A weak schedule means they would probably not jump any of the other 9-2 teams listed.

Teams that may be ranked ahead of a 9-2 SDSU:
The difficult part for a 9-2 SDSU is that most of the other 9-2 teams in field will only have one FCS loss. The YSU loss may be hurtful to us in some of these scenarios.*
11-0 or 10-1 JMU - Two tough games left with Richmond and Elon, but if they go 1-1 or better, they'll be a top two seed.
10-1 NDSU - Better record in the same conference. No way we jump them.
10-1 Sam Houston State - Weak schedule, but I still think the committee rewards them for their record. They have cupcake games left, and will likely stay where they are at in the polls. It will depend on how their SoS is evaluated.
10-1 UCA - No FCS losses and a win over SHSU. They also have no one tough left. They are a lock at 3-6. Same story with the SoS as SHSU.
9-2 Wofford - This one is tough. They would have the same record, but one loss will be to SEC South Carolina. The other is to a playoff bound Samford. Their losses would be better than ours at 9-2, so I think they stay ahead of us. Besides South Carolina, their last game is a cupcake against VMI. It's very likely they finish at 9-2.
10-1 Jacksonville state - No FCS losses, though it's a weak schedule. UCA
9-2 Southern Utah - This one is a toss up. They beat playoff bound UNI, Weber State, and may playoff bound NAU and a decent EWU team. They'd have one FCS loss and would be conference champions. The big sky is down this year, but I think that they will have a stronger resume (more wins over playoff teams ) than we will at 9-2. Depends on how the committee evaluates the Big Sky as a whole.
9-2 NDSU - We'd have the head to head, and a win over one of the other teams that beat them. They wouldn't have a bad loss like we do (YSU), but we would finish on a stronger note and have a share of the conference title. I think we would land above them in this scenario.

*We all know a 9-2 Valley team is a top 5 team in the country, but who knows how the committee will evaluate it this year.


Based on where everyone is playing right now, if we go 9-2, I'd expect the seeding to be:
1. JMU (11-0)
2. NDSU (10-1)
3. UCA (10-1)
4. JSU (10-1)
5. Wofford (9-2)
6. SDSU (9-2)
7. SHSU (10-1)
8. SUU (9-2)

If we go 8-3:
1. JMU (11-0)
2. NDSU (10-1)
3. UCA (10-1)
4. JSU (10-1)
5. Wofford (9-2)
6. SHSU (10-1)
7. SUU (9-2)
8. SDSU** (9-2)

** If SUU or Elon drop a game. 8-3 SDSU may have a stronger case than 9-2 Elon or a 9-2 Weber State. SUU at 9-2 will likely be ahead of us. If SUU does drop another game, we might move up to the 7, ahead of either 9-2 Stony Brook, 9-2 Elon, or 9-2 Weber.



Games of national interest over the next two weeks:

Elon at UNH - need Elon to drop a game ahead of their JMU game to knock them our of a seed.

NAU @ SUU - need NAU to win that to knock SUU off the seed line.

Weber state @ Idaho state - a Bengal win would knock WSU off the seed line

Elon @ JMU - A JMU win would place Elon at either 9-2 or 8-3 (depending on if they beat UNH the week before). Then 9-2 and us at 8-3 might give us the seed since our resume is better than theirs.

Stony Brook @ Maine - Stony Brook at 9-2 would be close between them and us for the last seed. Need them to lose this game to go 8-3

Weber State plays Idaho State at home this year. Everything else is spot on.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Seed Scenarios

Weber State plays Idaho State at home this year. Everything else is spot on.

Thanks for the correction. It'll be interesting to see how the wildcats do in the post season. Correct me if im wrong, but don't they have one of the top two defenses in the Big Sky this year?

[BTownJack]

Re: Seed Scenarios

Thanks for the correction. It'll be interesting to see how the wildcats do in the post season. Correct me if im wrong, but don't they have one of the top two defenses in the Big Sky this year?

Defense in the Big Sky, is that even a thing?

[WILDCAT]

Re: Seed Scenarios

Thanks for the correction. It'll be interesting to see how the wildcats do in the post season. Correct me if im wrong, but don't they have one of the top two defenses in the Big Sky this year?

I think Weber can perform well this year, this team is vastly different than the team that got steamrolled in Chatty last year. Weber currently has the #1 overall defense in the Big Sky.

#1 in scoring defense at 17.7 points per game.
#1 in total defense allowing only 342 yards per game
#2 in rushing defense 126 ypg
#2 in pass defense 216 ypg
#2 in interceptions with 14
#1 in turnover margin at +12
#1 in redzone defense (24 chances only 7 TD's)

I know the Big Sky isn't known for their defense, but that is the system Jay Hill is trying to instill here in Ogden and it's working. Our offense doesn't put up huge numbers but we are efficient, we don't turn the ball over, we have a balanced attack of run and pass and we control the clock. Not flashy but it gets the job done. If you can hold Eastern Washington to 20 points on their home turf you are doing something right.

Having said that Weber is no James Madison. I think Weber can compete with some of the other FCS playoff bound schools like the Dakota's, Northern Iowa, Sam Houston, Cent Ark etc. Should be an entertaining finish to the year, hopefully Weber doesn't stub their toe in their last two matchups.

[WILDCAT]

Re: Seed Scenarios

Defense in the Big Sky, is that even a thing?

Not unless you're Weber State

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Seed Scenarios

Quick update based on the new poll just released:
1.JMU
2. JSU
3.UCA
4.NDSU
5.SHSU
6.ELON
7.SDSU
8.WOFFORD
9. USD
10. NC A&T

A couple of quick takeaways:
1) Why is NCA&T ranked? The only way they participate in th post season is if they lose their conference title, and at that point, they better not be seeded anyways. They're just wasting space in the poll. But more importantly, of you're going to rank them, why not do it both weeks? They were just as undefeated last week as they are now.

2) No big sky team. That'll likely change if SUU or Weber win out.

3) Elon is one spot ahead of the jacks and they have two tough games left (@ UNH and vs JMU). If we win out, I think they'll lose at least one of those, and we'll move up.

4) SHSU is at number 5, and if everything else holds, we might be able to jump them if we are 9-2. Not much separation between us, especially if Elon drops a game.

5) USD at 9. To me, given that they've lost two out of three, I think their ranking here is indicating that they are in the playoffs no matter what at this point. I would have expected them to fall out of the top 10, somewhere in the 11 to 14 range.

5) Jacks at 7. I think that this means that if we drop one more game, we won't be getting a seed. At 7, I don't see us moving up more than two spots to protect us against a drop if lose the last game, and I'll bet we drop out of the top 10 if we lose the ISUR game. Will a win over USD be enough to push us back up to 8 on the last weekend? We'll see.

[jacksfan29]

Re: Seed Scenarios

I think if USD gets a seed, it'll be as an 8-3 team. I just don't see them beating both XDSU's. In that scenario, they'd likely be the 7 or 8, feeding into JMU or NDSU. I don't see how the committee wouldn't send them up to Fargo. If we aren't seeded, I'd assume we'd host Weber/NAU/San Diego and then go play in Verm. Winner onto fargo for the quarters. I also think the reverse scenario might work out if we get the seed and USD doesn't.

This may not be a popular opinion, but if we aren't seeded, I think our best chance will be to have to go on the road to an out of region team and get fed into a different pod. I could potentially see us playing @McNeese with the winner to SHSU or @Montana/NAU/Weber with the winner onto SUU. Those might be easier paths into the quarters unseeded than a home playoff game and a second round match at USD.

No team, not even the mighty Bison would get a seed going 8-3. SDSU and USD have to win out if they hope to be seeded.