Next Season Conference Predictions

[thumper_76]

Yeah, it's too early, fall ball hasn't even started, etc. The summer is long and this should be a fun topic to discuss. Tons of expectations going into this year, so why not chat about it. How do you see the season shaking out for us and the rest of the conference? I'll post mine in a bit, I just realized I haven't dived into the schedules deep enough yet to do as good of a job as I'd like in breaking down next year.

[thumper_76]

Re: Next Season Conference Predictions

So I'm going to do my own breakdown team by team for the conference, hopefully it's entertaining and gets some chatter going for next season. I won't be able to do all of them today, but hopefully I'll get a couple done. I'll post my uneducated guesses at records after I do my final team.

I'll start with YSU. The Penguins are being regarded highly by a lot of people, but that is mostly due to their hot finish last year. They lost a lot of talent, especially on defense. When you have both defensive ends drafted, you aren't going to wave a wand and replace those guys. Listening to YSU fans talk about their team it's hard to get a decent handle on them sometimes, they are either all sunshine or all thunderstorms, no middle ground. They should still be a pretty formidable team however.

As we are painfully aware by now, a lot of your season can be at the mercy of how your schedule falls, at least for a select few teams (State, UNI, YSU). YSU is coming into a year where everything is favorable for them, just like us. Maybe even more so. They get SDSU, NDSU, and ISUr at home while getting to drop WIU, a team I think will be on par with or better than UNI. Their toughest road game is at UNI or USeD. That alone is a big advantage for them. Their OOC is pretty mild, opening at Pitt and then getting their yearly NEC cupcake teams in Robert Morris and Central Connecticut State. That two week stretch gets quickly made up for by their first 5 weeks of the conference schedule. They face all of their toughest games in that stretch, going SDSU, @USeD, NDSU, @UNI, ISUr. Realistically if they can stay healthy and win 2-3 of those games, they make the playoffs since they end with @ISUb, @SIU, and MSU.

In the end I think they end up a bubble team for the playoffs, likely in depending on how the rest of the country shakes out. Unlike most times when they have been left out I think they get in because they would have ended the year on a hot streak, instead of imploding like their normal seasons. Not including last year of course.

[JacksFTW]

Re: Next Season Conference Predictions

I think you nailed YSU this year Thumper in thinking that they are a bubble playoff team with a lot of unknowns.

[discoDancinJackrabbit]

Re: Next Season Conference Predictions

Agree. Fair assessment. Seems like Pelini gives them a nice little punch. But I remember how atrocious their offense looked in Brookings last year and since they lost some stud defensive players then that could be a struggle for them unless they get some of it figured out.

[Justwin]

Re: Next Season Conference Predictions

Yeah, it's too early, fall ball hasn't even started, etc. The summer is long and this should be a fun topic to discuss. Tons of expectations going into this year, so why not chat about it. How do you see the season shaking out for us and the rest of the conference? I'll post mine in a bit, I just realized I haven't dived into the schedules deep enough yet to do as good of a job as I'd like in breaking down next year.

We win. The rest of the conference tied for a distant last place finish.

[thumper_76]

Re: Next Season Conference Predictions

We win. The rest of the conference tied for a distant last place finish.

Lol, fair enough!

[thumper_76]

Re: Next Season Conference Predictions

Next on my list, Illinois State.

Looking at ISUr going into this year after what they did last year, they should be the team that rotates into the spot that YSU held last year as one of the top three teams in the conference. One of the easiest obeservations to make on the MVFC in the last six years is that the top three to four teams will be SDSU, NDSU, and a rotation of a team or two from the middle of the pack. Looking at how ISUr finished the year last season by rallying to make the playoffs before choking away the game at UCA, it's somewhat reminiscent of their season before they went on their run to the NC game, which could mean serious trouble for the rest of the MVFC. However their offense loses their stud WR Warrum (thank goodness) and their offensive line. From my perusing of the ISUr message board their o line struggled in the spring, they lost their top RB and a couple of promising RB replacements, but have a good group competing for the spot. They do return Kolbe and he should be decent. Part of their struggles could be attributed to the strength of their defense however. They should have a real good defense, possibly challenging for the second best in the conference, and we all know the general rule of thumb for the MVFC is most teams go as far as their defense will carry them. Being ISUr they have brought in a couple of SEC transfers and a transfer from another Dame as well, and they have been pretty good at getting transfers who can contribute.

Looking at how their schedule pans out, expect them to be highly ranked midway through the season with no losses. They have an oddball schedule for an MVFC team since they don't play until week two and fill their bye week with a game at NAU, which looks to be their most challenging OOC game. This could be problematic towards the end of the season, but they don't have many challenging games to start unless there is a surprise team in the MVFC from the cellar. Their first 7 games go Butler, @EIU, @MSU, ISUb, @NAU, @SIU, and USeD. Really their biggest hurdles there are the games at EIU and NAU IMHO, since EIU is a rivalry game and NAU should be decent this year, as long as their qb stays healthy. I would have USeD as a very challenging game if it was in Verm, but I think they should handle them pretty well in Normal. Realistically though, other than the fact that they have 4 road games that isn't a very challenging first half of the season. No FBS game and two moderately challenging games on the road isn't very difficult, especially in the Valley. This does mean their last 4 game stretch is going to be brutal. They face the top half of the conference in a 4 game stretch, and the lack of a bye week could really bite them here. Realistically it's very possible the last five game stretch will be brutal if the Yotes come around like some think they will. They play @YSU, WIU, @SDSU, NDSU. If they play as well as I think they will this season however, I think they only drop the last two games. They don't have the offensive firepower to hang with the Jacks and the bison defense will eat that offense alive. Realistically they could go anywhere from 0-4 to 3-4 in that stretch, since the YSU game is at home. Either way they will be in the conversation at the end of the year to challenge for the conference title and a seed, at least until the WIU game. I think they make the playoffs unless they go and drop 4/5 in the back half of their schedule, but no seed since I see them losing their last two games.

[thumper_76]

Re: Next Season Conference Predictions

Now up: Indiana State

The Tress are coming off a fairly normal season for them where they got two wins in the OOC they should have and only had two conference wins, although one came against ISUr and then they somehow lost 45-24 to Misery St. Coming into this year they might be one of the biggest unknowns of the conference with a new coaching staff that is bringing a new scheme on both sides of the ball, and they only return 9 out of 22 starters. Normally I would just say that a team with turnover like that is going to be in serious trouble. However, when a program has been mired in failure as much as the Trees have been, that much turnover and new coaches can lead to a culture change which could lead to a surprise season IMO.

The new coach is Curt Mallory, son of the Indiana Hoosiers all time winningest head coach, so he has some pedigree. He was an assistant coach for Craig Bohl prior to being hired at ISUb, and was an assistant at the University of Michigan prior to that. Both stints were as secondary coaches and he was the pass defensive coordinator for for Wyoming. So the Trees now have a defensive minded HC taking over for them.

From what I've seen on their spring game put out by the ISUb athletic department (really good video TBH), they have been emphasizing keeping it simple and playing fast, and it showed in the highlights I saw. They were flying around and hitting hard, so they got that going for them. Their coaches seem pretty high on their run game, and from watching the video they probably have to be because they didn't have a single pass play as a highlight besides screen passes. According to an article on the Mallory hire, he wants to implement a pro set offense, so it would seem there is a strong Bohl influence on him, but it will probably take a couple years to get the hogs up front capable of making that successful there.

Unfortunately for the Trees and their new coach, it will likely be difficult to keep their players from honking it's going to be more of the same with how the schedule starts for them. They open with EIU at home, but then it goes @Tennessee, @Liberty, @ISUr, NDSU, and @USeD. That's a brutal stretch for a team that struggled last season, is bringing in a lot of new faces, and has a new staff. Ideally they would have had last years OOC to build some continuity and confidence, but instead they get two FBS (Liberty is moving up) games and a brutal start to the conference season. The best chance they have at a win in that stretch is EIU maybe, if they're lucky. So moral will be difficult to keep up would likely be an understatement. It eases up a bit for them after that stretch though, and they get a breather with SIU and @MSU. Then it's back to the grinder for them going YSU, WIU, and finishing @UNI. Funny how the schedule can change the outlook for a team. Looking at the schedule it looks to be a rough year for the Sycs, maybe one or two wins, maybe. Hopefully they play teams tough and show some promise for next year.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Next Season Conference Predictions

I'm going to bump this thread up, because it's July and we should be talking about football. Every other fan board out there is in the thick of preseason talk, and we should be too.

So here's one for discussion (Out of conference, but I don't care): Montana State on 9/9.
Not a great team last year, but not untalented either. The September 9th game is their home opener "Gold Rush", and a night game. After the playoff game in 2014, you can bet that they are ready to make a statement. I think the Jacks should win, but the atmosphere is going to be a factor and it would not surprise me if it's a close game. Anyone know much about their scheme/returning players?

I'll be in Bozeman cheering for the good guys!

Thoughts?

[propar80]

Re: Next Season Conference Predictions

I'm going to bump this thread up, because it's July and we should be talking about football. Every other fan board out there is in the thick of preseason talk, and we should be too.

So here's one for discussion (Out of conference, but I don't care): Montana State on 9/9.
Not a great team last year, but not untalented either. The September 9th game is their home opener "Gold Rush", and a night game. After the playoff game in 2014, you can bet that they are ready to make a statement. I think the Jacks should win, but the atmosphere is going to be a factor and it would not surprise me if it's a close game. Anyone know much about their scheme/returning players?

I'll be in Bozeman cheering for the good guys!

Thoughts?

Myself and a group of around 8 are road-tripping out for this one...looking forward to it and witnessing another Big Fluffy scorefest. I wouldn't be surprised to us us hang half a hundred on the Bobcats.

I think this is the OCC game that the Jacks offense especially, send the rest of the country a message!!

Go Jacks!!

[Jackedforlife]

Re: Next Season Conference Predictions

http://www.bobcatnation.com/bobcatbb...39701&start=80

Here is the link to the MSU fan forum. If you have the opportunity to go do it. Bozeman is a great town and the fans are very hospitable. Made it out to the playoff game and had a blast, definitely a top 10 road trip.

I think it'll be interesting to see how their secondary handles our passing attack. Not sure we hang 50 on them though. This game is interesting and I think will help set the tempo for the season. Road test in a difficult place to play(altitude and big fan base). Hoping we go in, take care of business early and get some valuable reps for 2nd teamers and new guys. With any luck we have 3 games to start the season where we can "tune" these guys up for the conference grind.

[RabbitObsessed]

Re: Next Season Conference Predictions

Myself and a group of around 8 are road-tripping out for this one...looking forward to it and witnessing another Big Fluffy scorefest. I wouldn't be surprised to us us hang half a hundred on the Bobcats.

I think this is the OCC game that the Jacks offense especially, send the rest of the country a message!!

Go Jacks!!

Honestly I'm a little worried about our defense going against a Big Sky team. That will definitely be the side of the ball with something to prove this year.

[CappinHard]

Re: Next Season Conference Predictions

Honestly I'm a little worried about our defense going against a Big Sky team. That will definitely be the side of the ball with something to prove this year.

I agree, especially with how often our defense will likely be on the field. Wouldn't be surprised to see the total of this game reach 100.

[Kemo]

Re: Next Season Conference Predictions

I'm actually cautiously optimistic about our defense this year. More so than the beginning of last season.

The secondary has a good mix of talent and experience and should come out of the gate much faster this year.

Rozeboom and Soulek are All-American candidates that should make those around them better.

The pass rush should at worst be the same considering that it wasn't that great to begin with, but I think there is enough young talent that it will likely improve. It might also be better simply due to the coaches emphasizing it (via improving technique and/or scheme), as the staff is well aware of our issue last season with getting off the field on 3rd down.

I have a little concern about depth at linebacker and defensive tackle, but new contributors emerge every year and there could be some pleasant surprises.

Also, don't underestimate the effect of going against the best offense in the FCS everyday in practice can have on improving the defense unit.

[WestSideRabbit]

Re: Next Season Conference Predictions

The defense will be better. I've had a chance to visit with the coaches. If Washington and Mosley aren't better this year, they will be quickly jumped by Gardner, McGary, and Harris. It's also not out of the question for Lofton to play this year too.

Linebackers will be okay. Backhus, Rozeboom, and Kleinschmit are the projected starters but Tuttle, Urbanek, Seven Wilson, and Cox will battle for time.

Defensive end has more depth than it has in awhile. Watch out for Tolu. He and Callender as situational pass rushers will make a world of difference. The area I am most concerned about is defensive tackle. There is a lot of unknown after Soulek and Whitsell. They are both big boys and will wear down if they don't get breaks.

I'll have complete position breakdowns up on my blog soon. www.jackrabbitillustrated.blogspot.com.