Best Case Scenario for a seed

[CappinHard]

So, we slipped up AGAIN, but what now? What is the best case scenario for the last 3 weeks of the season? Obviously to have the Jacks win out would be the best, but for the rest of the valley teams, and a few other FCS teams, here's what I see as the best case scenario, which could lead to us sneaking into a seed. (I know Thumper, you think all hope for a seed is lost, but I'm not so sure... hear me out)

First off, here are the most likely MVFC standings imo:

Conf. Overall

SDSU	7-1	8-3
NDSU	7-1	10-1
WIU	6-2	9-2
YSU	6-2	8-3
USD	4-4	5-6
ISUr	3-5	5-6
UNI	3-5	4-7
MOST	2-6	4-7
ISUb	2-6	4-7
SIU	0-8	2-9

Assuming this is how it plays out, it would make our wins against NDSU, WIU, and YSU look really good. It probably wouldn't hurt if ISUr beat WIU, making that loss look better, and the WIU win would still look pretty good. If NDSU were to lose to YSU, both of those wins would still look good.

As for the rest of the FCS:

Citadel losing to Samford, which should free up a seed.

Chattanooga losing to Wofford, this might not be necessary, as Chattanooga might not get a seed even if they beat Wofford, because they will have another loss with their last game against Bama.

JMU beating Richmond, this would lock JMU in for a seed and likely knock Richmond out of a seed, but if Richmond won, they could both end up with seeds.

If even one of those things happen, I think we would have a pretty good argument at a seed. If none of them happen, I think we still have a shot.

Best Case Seeds:

Locks:
NDSU
JSU
SHSU
EWU
JMU

Possible Seeds:
Richmond
Citadel
Chattanooga
South Dakota State
Charleston Southern
North Dakota
Cal Poly

I think for us to have a really good shot at a seed, either Richmond, Citadel, or Chattanooga would have to lose. What I'm saying is that while the loss to ISUr really sucks and makes for a very difficult route to a seed, I still think there's a chance.

The tricky part would be avoiding NDSU by either getting a 7 seed if they're a 1 or an 8 if they're a 2.

[CappinHard]

Re: Best Case Scenario for a seed

Another note... The really nice thing is that the selection committee will be releasing their top 10 on Thursday, hopefully we are listed at 9 or 10 on that list, and we'll know what we need to root for to end up with a seed.

[Bits]

Re: Best Case Scenario for a seed

Another note... The really nice thing is that the selection committee will be releasing their top 10 on Thursday, hopefully we are listed at 9 or 10 on that list, and we'll know what we need to root for to end up with a seed.

Where can the selection committee rankings be viewed when they come out? Are they going to be updating these weekly?

[CappinHard]

Re: Best Case Scenario for a seed

Where can the selection committee rankings be viewed when they come out? Are they going to be updating these weekly?

I know for sure the first time they can be viewed will be during the Thursday 3PM ET broadcast of College Football Live on ESPNU. As far as a website I'm not sure yet.

[propar80]

Re: Best Case Scenario for a seed

Anygivensaturday.com will be the best place to learn more about it after it comes out. There will be a ton of "banter" about it no doubt.

[CappinHard]

Re: Best Case Scenario for a seed

Another thought is that NDSU needs to beat YSU this weekend to ensure that YSU doesn't end up with a seed, because I think NDSU would still hang on to a seed at that point.

At this point this thread is pretty much a conversation with myself, but I find this stuff interesting.

[rabidrabbit]

Re: Best Case Scenario for a seed

Charleston South losing to Liberty for the Big South auto bid would also free up a potential seed. Winning the auto bid and Cal Poly beating Ewu would leave few better alternatives than Jacks for seed. UND may slip in as seed if undefeated in Big Sky.


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[thumper_76]

Re: Best Case Scenario for a seed

Possible Seeds:
Richmond
Citadel
Chattanooga
South Dakota State
Charleston Southern
North Dakota
Cal Poly

Ok, so here is my (mostly worthless) thoughts on our chances vs these teams. All of this is subject to change with the release of the committees top ten.

SoCon

Chattanooga only has the FCS loss to the Citadel, a good win against Sanford, and a game against Bama yet. Only one FCS game left vs Wofford. If they lose to Wofford we likely jump them with where they sit. I don't see them losing to Wofford but they haven't played at a high level since the game vs The Citadel. Bama game won't matter.

Needs to happen: Wofford Win

The Citadel looks to be pretty close to a lock as well in my book. Undefeated, top 10 win, a tough game against Sanford and a cakewalk vs VMI left. I don't think a loss to Sanford will drop them enough for us to jump them. They would have a top 10 win, and only one decent FCS loss. They have to drop the last two for us to jump them with how high they are right now.

Needs to happen: VMI win.

Big Sky

Cal Poly only has one loss so far and its to a now ranked UND team that looks like a lock for the playoffs on the road. They play against EWU this weekend, then have Weber St and Northern Colorado left. If they beat EWU and manage to drop one of the last two games, they would have a very similar resume to us except they hold the head to head at our place. Weber St is the most likely of the two after EWU to knock them off. If they drop the EWU game and win out it comes down to resumes, and I think we are in trouble. We saw what happened to UND with their bad loss for getting into the playoffs last year because of a bad loss. They would hold the head to head against us, no bad losses, and a good win vs Montana.

Needs to Happen: Loss to EWU and one more loss

UND has an outside shot at a seed if they win out. If they drop another game they won't get a seed because their resume will be too weak to make it with two FCS losses compared to the level of wins we have and their best wins would be Cal Poly and USD realistically because of how their schedule fell this year.

Needs to Happen: Any loss

Big South

CSU is still getting a lot of traction from their close loss in Fargo in OT and a win at transitional but still ranked CCU. If they drop any games they likely don't make the playoffs unless things fell right in their conference for them to get the auto bid. This is the one that I really am interested to see the committee poll for. We should be ahead of them in my opinion just by winning out, but most polls show we aren't.

Needs to Happen: Any loss

CAA

Richmond is one that is almost a lock for a seed IMHO. They have a power 5 FBS win, only loss was early in the season that has obviously been fairly forgotten or forgiven given their current ranking. They have a huge match up with JMU this weekend, and then a fairly easy stretch to finish vs Delaware and William and Mary. Even with a loss to JMU they get the nod over us because of the FBS win likely. Would need them to drop one more after that for us to jump them.

Need to Happen: 2 losses

JMU is undefeated in FCS play, but I'm including them because if we are including Richmond we should include JMU because they are both in real similar positions. In fact, JMU is more likely to help us out than Richmond because they have a tough match up against a solid Villanova team the week after. If Richmond beats them and they have a hangover game against Villanova they will likely lose that one as well. Them going into the playoffs with losing 2/3 does not bode well for a seed. They won't drop the Elon game, they are almost as bad as URI.

Needs to Happen: Loss to Richmond and Nova.



SO if that was too much reading, in summary by including the two CAA teams eyeing a seed we have four teams we likely can't jump, and seven teams who are ahead of us if they win out who are in line to get a seed before us IMO. So what we need to happen is some combination of four of the above listed "needs to happen" things to happen for us to squeeze in as a seed. I looked at all this stuff with no illusions that we are going to get any favors from the committee because we haven't gotten any favors from them yet. So we need some mega chaos to end the season for us to jump these teams. What do I see as the most likely way that combination plays out for us to sneak into the seeds? I could see Chatty getting upset by Wofford, Samford knocking off El Cid and putting them into a swoon before their rivalry game with VMI and they drop that one. The next two I would look at as being the most plausible is JMU going on a little skid and CSU losing to Liberty. Cheer for chaos guys. Cheer for chaos.

[CappinHard]

Re: Best Case Scenario for a seed

I guess I am banking on the committee looking at our win in Fargo and the wins against YSU and WIU (assuming they end their seasons well), and weighing them heavily when it comes to comparing resumes. If the loss to ISUr was the last game of the year, there's no way we get a seed as it would be too fresh, but assuming we end the season with 3 straight wins, it will be a more distant memory and hopefully viewed as a mid season loss on the road in the Valley, which is never easy. I also think having some star power in our big three will help us. No, that shouldn't be taken into consideration, but you're crazy if you don't think that things like that will keep SDSU in the front of the minds of the committee more than in the past.

[jacks1]

Re: Best Case Scenario for a seed

Seed? I'm not sold on making the playoffs yet.

[CappinHard]

Re: Best Case Scenario for a seed

Seed? I'm not sold on making the playoffs yet.

You can make a worst case scenario thread if you want. This is just a thread to talk about the best case scenario, not necessarily what I think will happen.

[jacks1]

Re: Best Case Scenario for a seed

You can make a worst case scenario thread if you want. This is just a thread to talk about the best case scenario, not necessarily what I think will happen.

Ahhh...good point.

[thumper_76]

Best Case Scenario for a seed

So this garbage right here is why we have almost no shot at a seed. This is the committees top 10 ladies and gentlemen:


There is zero reward for tough SOS at all. None. Looking at how they have the top ten I'm dubious about this joke of a committee having us in the top 15, top ten wins be damned. The hilarious part is one of the committee people was interviewed by Dom Izzo and he was talking about how regional match ups would be avoided and SOS was going to be emphasized. So it's safe to assume we're getting shipped to Fargo cause that was a massive lie on the SOS part.


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[WestSideRabbit]

Re: Best Case Scenario for a seed

Yep. With this list, even if we had won last weekend I don't know if we are ranked. What a joke!

[Bits]

Re: Best Case Scenario for a seed

Thumper - I agree with everything in your post. But, are you really surprised by this? We knew the implications of dropping another game. We controlled our own destiny for a seed and let it slip through our fingers. I will be much more interested in the subsequent top 10 rankings by the committee. Will they slot vote going forward? Will JSU or SHSU move down if they barely win their remaining games even if they don't look as good as EWU and NDSU in the process? Or, will they truly take a fresh look at all of the top teams each week? Does NDSU move up, even if nobody ahead of them loses, if they completely dominate YSU this week? If the committee takes a fresh look each week, we may have a chance (I'm not holding my breath on this happening). We have to play well and win our remaining games. Not just for a shot at a seed, but so we don't have a repeat of last years letdown in the playoffs.