10/1 Western Illinois

[scbison]

Re: 10/1 Western Illinois

Must win game for SDSU. Jacks 31 Leathernecks 20

[CappinHard]

Re: 10/1 Western Illinois

Fwiw, Jacks are 4.5 point favorites according to 5dimes. This is actually surprising considering Sagarin, when taking account home field advantage, only has the Jacks as 0.36 point favorites. Usually the betting lines for FCS games are almost right on par with Sagarin.

[jackmd]

Re: 10/1 Western Illinois

It's all about the defense. Have to be one hell of a lot better on first down. Poly and even Drake just killed the Jacks on first down. Getting off the field on 3rd down has been an issue for this program as long as I can remember. Hold them on 1st down, get some 3rd and longs and get some damn pressure on the QB. Can't be another top ranked team in the nation with as crappy a pass rush as this one. It's horrible. If defense isn't 10 times better this is a certain loss.

Hope the Jacks can run the ball early. If not, use the stud receivers. If TC is going to have happy feet and not stay in the pocket and get them the ball Lujan needs to be behind center.

This is a must win. No way around that. Home game against a program with similar aspirations coming in here expecting to knock the Jackrabbits off just like they did to end the regular season last year. Huge game.

[da_coach]

Re: 10/1 Western Illinois

It's all about the defense. Have to be one hell of a lot better on first down. Poly and even Drake just killed the Jacks on first down. Getting off the field on 3rd down has been an issue for this program as long as I can remember. Hold them on 1st down, get some 3rd and longs and get some damn pressure on the QB. Can't be another top ranked team in the nation with as crappy a pass rush as this one. It's horrible. If defense isn't 10 times better this is a certain loss.

Hope the Jacks can run the ball early. If not, use the stud receivers. If TC is going to have happy feet and not stay in the pocket and get them the ball Lujan needs to be behind center.

This is a must win. No way around that. Home game against a program with similar aspirations coming in here expecting to knock the Jackrabbits off just like they did to end the regular season last year. Huge game.

Agree. It's going to be about the lines.
Can the defense slow down the running game, especially on early downs? Can they mount a pass rush?

On offense... can they open holes for Mangarelli and Wallace? That will help in protecting the QB, as well... if they can't just "tee off" and chase the passer.
-Can they handle the blitzes we are sure to see (after Drake and Cal Poly, I don't know why you wouldn't bring 5 or 6 guys every play... until they show they can handle it.)

[jakejc795]

Re: 10/1 Western Illinois

The best selection, but most expensive would be the bookstore. Another place that has some good options but is rather expensive would be Scheels in Sioux Falls. Apparently there's a USD/SDSU store that opened up in the mall, but I haven't been there yet. I haven't had much luck at Dunham's in Brookings, but it's another option. You would be surprised at what you can find at Walmart in Brookings, depending on if they have a new shipment or not, they can have a really good selection at decent prices.

Does anyone know if the apparel store at the stadium is open yet?

The stadium store wasn't open for the Cal Poly game, but maybe it will be now that they had the bye to get everything ready.

[jakejc795]

Re: 10/1 Western Illinois

Agree. It's going to be about the lines.
Can the defense slow down the running game, especially on early downs? Can they mount a pass rush?

On offense... can they open holes for Mangarelli and Wallace? That will help in protecting the QB, as well... if they can't just "tee off" and chase the passer.
-Can they handle the blitzes we are sure to see (after Drake and Cal Poly, I don't know why you wouldn't bring 5 or 6 guys every play... until they show they can handle it.)

Maybe the Jacks'll throw in some screens to counter the blitzes. I think either RB could do some damage to Western via the screen

[jakejc795]

Re: 10/1 Western Illinois

The selection at the bookstore on campus is much better. It can get crowded on game days. You might want to get there early.

Definitely a good idea. I think they open at 11am CT on Sat.

[WestSideRabbit]

Re: 10/1 Western Illinois

Did a quick count and there are about 4,300 seats still available for this weekends game. Not bad, not great. Section 119 and 121 have a lot of seats still available and these are great seats for only $27. Email went out yesterday to SDSU employees with a discount code for tickets. Should be a nice weather day too!

I think we will be better if Mears is back. He brings experience and stability to the back end. I hope Gottlob and Blum are also back and ready to contribute. I'm predicting a Jacks victory because this is a "must win" game! We seem to play best with our backs against the wall.

[thumper_76]

Re: 10/1 Western Illinois

Western is giving up an average of 176 ypg rushing and an average of 480 ypg in total offense. Average yards per play is 6.8 against them.

Our defense is giving up an average of 249 ypg rushing and 524 ypg total offense. We give up 7.1 yards per play.

Positives for each defense. WIU should be used to going against offenses similar to ours with EIU and NAU being fairly pass happy teams like we are. We finally get to face something of a more "normal" offense compared to the two that gashed us so horribly.

Unfortunately this offense is much more balanced compared to what we have faced. They have a great running back and an extremely deep Wr group. Our young corners will get burned at least a couple times by play action, just hoping we can minimize the amount that it happens. On the plus side for us we should be able to run the ball with some efficiency against these guys because they seem to be almost as weak against the run as we are. I wouldn't be surprised if Poly put up 400 yards rushing on them either since the majority of teams they have faced are pass oriented and still averaged almost 200 yds rushing. Weineke and company should be able to have big numbers as well. We have a better offense than anyone they have faced so far, and they weren't exactly stellar against those teams.


Long story short, I expect a shootout with about 10,000 points scored. Whoever gets more than two stops wins. WIU is a great team, any type of win against them is a good one. In spite of all our unrest over results we should remember that our schedule including this week has two top ten FCS teams, and a boarder line top 25 FBS team. Obviously with our expectations for the season we aren't happy with the results, but it's not like we've lost to Indiana St like the Redbirds just did. Poly did just beat the Montana team that went into Cedar Rapids and took out the Panthers. Honestly if we lose this game all is not lost (in spite of my attitude after the Poly game). The way things have shaped up, things aren't how we looked at them at the beginning of the season. We expected Ill St, NDSU, and UNI to be our toughest games. Right now Ill St doesn't look anything above mediocre, so really it's like we switched that game for WIU. So even if we drop this game taking two out of three of the toughest road games isn't impossible. UNI has shown they can be beat. NDSU beat Iowa, but were taken to overtime by two FCS squads in Fargo and have lost DeLuca for the season. Not the perfect situation, but not as bleak as we would have thought at the beginning of the year.

[CappinHard]

Re: 10/1 Western Illinois

If TC is going to have happy feet and not stay in the pocket and get them the ball Lujan needs to be behind center.

Where is this coming from? Is this an observation that you've made? From what I've seen, he has done a very good job of getting the ball out and not having happy feet.

[thumper_76]

10/1 Western Illinois

Where is this coming from? Is this an observation that you've made? From what I've seen, he has done a very good job of getting the ball out and not having happy feet.

I don't understand it either tbh. People upset with how TC has played are insane. Sorry. He's tied for 5th in the country for passing TDs. #8 in yards per attempt. Is #4 in QBR. Just outside the top 25 for yards, and everyone ahead of him has played an extra game. He's number 4 in the conference for total offense and of the guys ahead of him on is a turnover machine (Strevler), one has played more games (Indy St), and the other has played against such juggernauts as Murray St, SEMO, and FAMU. He's also #8 in the country in completion percentage. I don't get the angst about our offense tbh in general. We're the highest scoring offense in the conference. We average, AVERAGE, 42.7 points per game. 42.7! Nobody has put up as many points as we have on TCU this year besides Arkansas, a top 25 FBS Team, and they needed overtime to do it. In spite of having a 35:43 to 24:17 disadvantage in TOP cause the defense couldn't get off the field they still put up 31 points against Poly. For all the unhappiness about the rushing game were still averaging 4.7 ypc and 129 ypg. That's not nearly as bad as it's made out to be. Honestly I think the biggest issue with the run game is we just don't run much because of the weapons we have passing. We're all upset about it because we are just used to being a run first team, and I give the coaches credit for adjusting our game plans to use our strengths instead of forcing ourselves to play one way because it's "how we play". I don't understand the hand wringing about offensive play, at all.

[jackmd]

Re: 10/1 Western Illinois

Where is this coming from? Is this an observation that you've made? From what I've seen, he has done a very good job of getting the ball out and not having happy feet.

Watch the first half of the Cal Poly game. Happy feet probably isn't the best description. We all know TC is an excellent runner. Not everyone knows how strong and accurate he is in the passing game. Before he hurt his ankle he was flushing from a well formed or developing pocket and missing some big passing opportunities. Absolutely not unexpected for a young QB against a defense that was stacking the box.

Saying he has happy feet isn't fair. I'd like to see him be a little more disciplined in the pocket but also understand that he's had a lot or pressure.

[jackmd]

Re: 10/1 Western Illinois

And I agree. This year's team is going to be much more proficient in the passing game. The run game needs to be designed around the fact that the biggest weapons are on pass catchers this year.

[CappinHard]

Re: 10/1 Western Illinois

Watch the first half of the Cal Poly game. Happy feet probably isn't the best description. We all know TC is an excellent runner. Not everyone knows how strong and accurate he is in the passing game. Before he hurt his ankle he was flushing from a well formed or developing pocket and missing some big passing opportunities. Absolutely not unexpected for a young QB against a defense that was stacking the box.

Saying he has happy feet isn't fair. I'd like to see him be a little more disciplined in the pocket but also understand that he's had a lot or pressure.

I don't know... I would have to really sit down and go through the plays, but the feeling that I got was that he had a good clock in his head as to make sure that he didn't sit in the pocket too long and let it collapse on him and result in a sack. I suppose it depends on how you look at it, but imo I would rather him go through his reads, if nothing is there, asses the situation and likely get outside of the pocket and create, because that's when he's very dangerous. I didn't feel like he was rushing through his reads and not letting a play develop. If he was scrambling it seemed to be the result of good coverage downfield.

[goon]

Re: 10/1 Western Illinois

I am more worried that he will run to much or we do more designed runs and he just keeps hurting his ankle all season. I would rather him not take any shots on designed runs and only try to run as last resort. Hope we try we try to get the ball to the wizard and dallas like every other play. They were the only reason making tough catches against poly that we even were in the game. Sure hope the Defense proves us wrong and takes it in the right direction.