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  • #1

    Playoff Picture/MVC AQ

    For those of you concerned about the playoff picture: If NDSU wins they will be the AQ. If NDSU loses to ISU-R we will have a four way tie at
    6-2 for the AQ. Here is what some research has uncovered.

    There would only be 4 common opponents: YSU, USD, SIU, MSU.

    NDSU: 4-0 vs commons
    SDSU: 3-0 vs commons w/game vs USD pending
    ISU-B: 3-0 vs commons w/game vs YSU pending
    ISU-R: 2-2 vs commons

    Assuming SDSU beats USD and ISU-B wins vs YSU, then 3 teams are 4-0 against commons

    Then if NDSU loses to ISUR, all 4 would be 6-2 in conference going to tie breaker. ISU-R would be out with a 2-2 record vs commons.

    Then it is a round robin w/ NDSU,SDSU and ISU-B.

    NDSU: 1-1
    SDSU: 1-1
    ISUB:1-1

    Then it goes to highest GPI. As of today. it was NDSU #1, ISU-B #7, SDSU #9.

    GPI Index.

    1. N Dakota St (9) (1.00)
    2. Montana St (2.29)
    3. Sam Houston St (3.14)
    4. E Washington (5.00)
    5. Ga Southern (7.00)
    6. Illinois St (8.29)
    7. Indiana St (10.14)
    8. Cent Arkansas (10.57)
    9. S Dakota St (11.43)
    10. Cal Poly (11.86)
    11. Old Dominion (12.14)
    12. Northern Arizona (13.00)
    13. Appalachian St (13.14)
    14. Wofford (15.00)
    15E Kentucky15.14)

    TV tweeted today, that no eligible team in the top ten GPI since 2007 has been left out of the playoffs. IF they take 3 MVC teams, it will get interesting, but I am guessing NDSU AQ, ISU-R (8-3), SDSU (8-3) and left out will be ISU-B (8-3 but only 7 D1 wins-one of their wins is a D11 School) SDSU and ISU-R have beat them head to head.
    Last edited by jackolantern; 11-13-2012, 10:25 PM.
    Jackolantern


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  • #2
    Re: Playoff Picture/MVC AQ

    Consider me pessimistic, but past playoff/tournament seedings and placements (in football and basketball) that have been given to SDSU convince me not to hold my breath waiting for an at-large berth.

    Somehow SDSU just gets hosed. Every. Time.
    "Life is short so make sure you spend as much time as possible arguing with strangers on the Internet." - Person

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    • #3
      Re: Playoff Picture/MVC AQ

      Yeah, I think we need to be rooting for NDSU to win. If SDSU wins, then we will be tied with Ill St. at 8-3. They have to take at least two from the MVC and then I think they take SDSU over Ill St. An NDSU win will raise SDSU's GPI and drop Ill St. GPI.

      If Ill St. wins, and SDSU wins, we will definitely be on the bubble. I don't like that scenario.

      Go Jacks!!!
      Go State!!!
      (\__/)
      (='.'=)
      (")_(") Feed the Rabbit!!

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      • #4
        Re: Playoff Picture/MVC AQ

        As I search the web right now more websites have the Rabbits out rather than in. Let's let it play out but hopefully the Rabbits get a bid. They deserve it.

        Go Rabbits!

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        • #5
          Re: Playoff Picture/MVC AQ

          So the best confrence in football gets just 1 maybe 2 teams in and there are probably 4 deserving. This is the reason why losing last week hurt so much. It sucks when you don't control your own destiny.
          "The most rewarding things you do in life, are often the ones that look like they cannot be done.” Arnold Palmer

          Don't sweat the petty things, and don't pet the sweaty things.

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          • #6
            Re: Playoff Picture/MVC AQ

            All the Jacks can do is win on Saturday.....the rest takes care of itself. Good or bad....(Go Bison, there I said it.)
            With fans like this who needs enemas.....

            Comment

            • #7
              Re: Playoff Picture/MVC AQ

              Originally posted by 6-4-3 Jackrabbit View Post
              As I search the web right now more websites have the Rabbits out rather than in. Let's let it play out but hopefully the Rabbits get a bid. They deserve it.

              Go Rabbits!
              We haven't been getting a lot of respect from pollsters/fans outside our region, but I don't see a committee with all the numbers in front of them making the mistake of leaving out an 8 DI win Jackrabbit team.

              I haven't seen one objective conference ranking (i.e. formula/computer rankings) that doesn't have the MVFC as the best FCS conference and, when we beat USD on Saturday, we'll at least finish tied for 2nd, and at best tied for 1st, in the conference. Couple that with our current #9 rating in GPI Ranking, #4 in Strength of Schedule according to Massey, and #5 in the Massey Rating, it would be a gaff of epic proportion to leave us out of the field.
              If you think nobody cares about you, try missing a couple of payments.
              - Steven Wright

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              • #8
                Re: Playoff Picture/MVC AQ

                Does the selection committee take into accout what schools have put in bids to host playoff games? If SDSU put in a healthy bid to host, will that help them land in the playoffs? Other schools?

                Comment

                • #9
                  Re: Playoff Picture/MVC AQ

                  Originally posted by goon View Post
                  So the best confrence in football gets just 1 maybe 2 teams in and there are probably 4 deserving. This is the reason why losing last week hurt so much. It sucks when you don't control your own destiny.
                  I think the UNI loss hurt more than last week. That loss should not have happened, especially how lopsided it was.
                  "Life is short so make sure you spend as much time as possible arguing with strangers on the Internet." - Person

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Re: Playoff Picture/MVC AQ

                    Originally posted by RowdyRabbit View Post
                    I think the UNI loss hurt more than last week. That loss should not have happened, especially how lopsided it was.
                    Exactly. That was the loss that will be deemed unacceptable if the Jacks take care of business on Saturday and still don't get a playoff bid. You can't go in there against a bad UNI team and not be ready to stomp them.

                    The selection committee consists of 11 AD's (at least it did last year). They say its all based on objectivity as it pertains to at large bids but several of the objectives carry equal weight and when there are "ties" you can bet that relationships affect decision making. There is a east coast bias, especially northeast, that will almost certainly assure that some team from the MVFC or the Big Sky gets left out in favor of a CAA or other east coast school.
                    We are here to add what we can to life, not get what we can from life. -Sir William Osler

                    We do not see things as they are, we see things as we are.

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                    • #11
                      Re: Playoff Picture/MVC AQ

                      Originally posted by juniorjackgrownold View Post
                      Does the selection committee take into accout what schools have put in bids to host playoff games? If SDSU put in a healthy bid to host, will that help them land in the playoffs? Other schools?
                      Don't think so. I think the field gets set, including seeds, before they look at the bid packages for the included teams. That being said, since the NCAA gets about 80% of the home gate, teams with a known ability to bring in lots of fans might have a slight edge in the minds of the committee, but it's not one of the criteria they're officially evaluating when they pick the field.

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Re: Playoff Picture/MVC AQ

                        Stole this from 'Go Apps' on AGS. Probably one of the better breakdowns I've seen thus far, so thought I'd share:

                        Current overall and conference records are in parentheses.. The rank below is based on being in the playoffs,. D11 wins are excluded as are FBS losses - that is reflected in the record to your right important in determination of at large and seeding.

                        Automatic Bids:
                        Patriot: Colgate CAA: N Hampshire
                        Big Sky: Mont State Southland: C. Arkansas
                        Southern: ASU MVC: NDSU
                        MEAC: Bethune OVC: Eastern Illinois
                        Big South: Coastal Carolina NEC: Wagner

                        Auto Qualifiers

                        Bethune Cookman (8-2, 6-0 MEAC) Record 8-1

                        Central Arkansas (8-2, 6-1 Southland) Record 7-1

                        Eastern Illinois (7-3, 6-1 OVC) Record 7-2

                        Colgate (7-3, 5-0 Patriot) Record 7-3


                        At Large Qualifiers (IN)

                        -Sam Houston State (8-2, 6-1 Southland) Record 7-1

                        -North Dakota State (9-1, 5-1 MVC) Record 9-1

                        -Montana State (9-1, 6-1 Big Sky) Record 8-1

                        -Ga Southern (8-2, 6-2 Southern) Record 8-2

                        -Old Dominion (9-1, 6-1 CAA) Record 9-1

                        -Appalachian State (8-3, 6-2 Southern) Record 8-2

                        -Wagner (7-3, 6-1 Northeast) Record 7-2


                        Still Alive
                        -Illinois State (8-2, 6-2 MVC) Record 8-2

                        -Coastal Carolina (6-4, 4-1 Big South) Record 6-3

                        -Eastern Washington (8-2, 6-1 Big Sky) Record 8-1

                        -New Hampshire (8-2, 6-1 CAA) – Record 8-1

                        -Cal Poly (8-2, 6-2 Big Sky) Record 8-2

                        -Tennessee State (8-2, 4-2 OVC) Record 8-2

                        - South Dakota State (7-3, 5-2 MVC) Record 7-2

                        -Richmond (7-3, 5-2 CAA) Record 7-2

                        -Lehigh (9-1, 3-1 Patriot) Record 9-1


                        JUST MISSNG FOR NOW

                        -Eastern Kentucky (8-3, 6-2 OVC) Record 8-2

                        -Wofford (8-2, 6-2 Southern) Record 7-2

                        -Northern Arizona (8-2, 6-1 Big Sky) Record 7-1

                        -Stoney Brook (9-2, 5-1 Big South) Record 8-1

                        -Indiana State (7-3, 5-2 MVC) Record 6-2

                        -UT Martin (7-3, 5-1 OVC) Record 7-2

                        -Villanova (7-3, 5-2 CAA) Record 7-2

                        -James Madison (7-3, 5-2 CAA) Record 7-2

                        -Albany (8-2, 6-1 Northeast) Record 8-2

                        -Samford (7-3, 5-3 Southern) Record 6-3

                        -Liberty (5-5, 4-1 Big South) Record 5-4

                        -Towson (6-4, 5-2 CAA) Record 6-2


                        Below are my projections for the I-AA playoff field.

                        At-large: Lehigh, Illinois State, Sam Houston State, Richmond, ODU, Tenn State, E. Washington, South Dakota State, GSU

                        Seeds: ASU, Mont St, NDSU, ODU, E Washington
                        Last In: Richmond, Lehigh
                        Last Out: Wofford, Stoney Brook, EKU, Indiana State


                        Bracket I:
                        Lehigh @ Richmond winner at No. 1 NDSU
                        Illinois State @ E. Illinois

                        Coastal Carolina @ Bethune winner at No. 4 ASU
                        N Hampshire @ No. 5 E Washington

                        Bracket II:
                        Wagner @ Colgate winner at No. 3 ODU
                        C Arkansas @ GSU

                        Tenn State @ South Dakota State winner at No. 2 Mont State
                        Cal Poly @ Sam Houston State

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Re: Playoff Picture/MVC AQ

                          I love that last scenario and think something similar is likely. Jacks with a 1st round home game against a comparable team. I'd rather see that then the first game being a 2nd round game on the road. Here is a quote from one of the AD's on the selection committee:

                          "We look at the polls, we look at the rankings, the ratings, whatever might be available to us. The one valuable thing about sitting together in the room is you have 10 (other) people who are from various parts of the country who might know some things that don't necessarily show on paper. For example, in a certain game, did they miss a key player, did they miss their quarterback, did they miss a running back?"...........

                          I think it should be a little more objective than that. Does that mean teams that have done well but lost some key players late in the year don't deserve spots because they might not perform as well? Injuries are part of football and should not be used to determine playoff eligibility. That said, I don't know exactly what should. It seem like GPI is flawed, polls are clearly flawed, strength of schedule can only tell you so much.

                          Long and short, get the AQ or subject yourself to an imperfect process where not everyone gets picked and those that don't all feel like they got screwed.
                          We are here to add what we can to life, not get what we can from life. -Sir William Osler

                          We do not see things as they are, we see things as we are.

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                          • #14
                            Re: Playoff Picture/MVC AQ

                            I see this projection being very accurate also. I've seen us on one end of the spectrum getting a first round bye and a home game all the way go getting left out completely at 8-3. So this one for me makes the most sense. Only crappy part is a lot of the students will be gone. But alas..lets get this freaking dog and pony show out of the way this Saturday and not get anyone hurt.Go Jacks!!
                            SDSU...Passionate, Relentless, Champions.

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                            • #15
                              Re: Playoff Picture/MVC AQ

                              I could also see the Cal-Poly vs NAU winner in T St. place at Brookings. No way CAA deserves more than 3 this year and the Patriot league getting 2 when 1 of them is a bad Colgate team isn't right. BSC and MVFC should both get 3 but probably not 4.

                              It would be a travesty for the MVFC to only get 2 or for Ind. St. to be selected instead of a team that beat them at home.
                              We are here to add what we can to life, not get what we can from life. -Sir William Osler

                              We do not see things as they are, we see things as we are.

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