Analyzing the USD mathcup

[NoVaJack]

This will be no easy game Saturday. By the numbers, the Jacks should be solidly favored, but USD could very well be 6-5 coming into this. The Coyotes have lost five games by 19 points.
Consider:
- Their one win was a 10-point thumping of the Patriot league champs Colgate. (Which probably says more about the weakness of the MVC than the U's. Cornell will be in the playoffs and may have finished last in the MVC. What a joke.).
- By the numbers, it is easy to see what the Jacks need to do: Run the football and take advantage of scoring opportunities i.e., 7s, not 3s. USD is last in the league in rushing defense. The U is also last in scoring defense (at 31.7 a game, the Jacks are third at 16.7) But the Jacks are scoring only four points a game more than the U. So running the ball and scoring 7s rather than 3s, and sustaining drives, are really important. The two teams' passing games basically cancel each other out; the Jacks have passed for 1861 yards, the U 1568.
- Saw some of the U's game against UNI on TV. To their credit, the Coyotes still seem to be playing hard. Would be very surprised if they came in emotionally down on Saturday.
- If the running game gets in a rythym early, it could be a 31-10 type game. If not, don't count any chickens.

[SF_Rabbit_Fan]

Re: Analyzing the USD mathcup

This will be no easy game Saturday. By the numbers, the Jacks should be solidly favored, but USD could very well be 6-5 coming into this. The Coyotes have lost five games by 19 points.
Consider:
- Their one win was a 10-point thumping of the Patriot league champs Colgate. (Which probably says more about the weakness of the MVC than the U's. Cornell will be in the playoffs and may have finished last in the MVC. What a joke.).
- By the numbers, it is easy to see what the Jacks need to do: Run the football and take advantage of scoring opportunities i.e., 7s, not 3s. USD is last in the league in rushing defense. The U is also last in scoring defense (at 31.7 a game, the Jacks are third at 16.7) But the Jacks are scoring only four points a game more than the U. So running the ball and scoring 7s rather than 3s, and sustaining drives, are really important. The two teams' passing games basically cancel each other out; the Jacks have passed for 1861 yards, the U 1568.
- Saw some of the U's game against UNI on TV. To their credit, the Coyotes still seem to be playing hard. Would be very surprised if they came in emotionally down on Saturday.
- If the running game gets in a rythym early, it could be a 31-10 type game. If not, don't count any chickens.

Agree with everything you wrote.

USD is still playing hard because they have a new coach and a lot of players are playing to impress for next year. Good for them.

We need to score early in this game so Zenner can Zen.

[goon]

Re: Analyzing the USD mathcup

Only thing that would concern me is a mobile QB. That is it. We struggle with them unless we blitz a lot. Keep powell in front of you and blitz the QB should give us a solid W.

[SDSUAlum08]

Re: Analyzing the USD mathcup

Only thing that would concern me is a mobile QB. That is it. We struggle with them unless we blitz a lot. Keep powell in front of you and blitz the QB should give us a solid W.

I don't think they'll need to blitz. The defensive line has been great for SDSU. They should be able to get to the QB by themselves.

[NoVaJack]

Re: Analyzing the USD mathcup

I don't think they'll need to blitz. The defensive line has been great for SDSU. They should be able to get to the QB by themselves.

This is a good point and I should have thought of it in original analysis. Pressure up front and a running game.

[goon]

Re: Analyzing the USD mathcup

I don't think they'll need to blitz. The defensive line has been great for SDSU. They should be able to get to the QB by themselves.

I think the opposite doesn't give him a chance to run or get comfy trying to pass. Keep him on edge all day with out the chance to escape.

[RowdyRabbit]

Re: Analyzing the USD mathcup

USD's mobile QB is the only thing about them that makes me nervous.

We've typically been pretty bad at stopping mobile QB's.

[JimmyJack]

Re: Analyzing the USD mathcup

Math cup:

[Nidaros]

Re: Analyzing the USD mathcup

Holy Nutmeg, Coach Stig majored in mathematics. He is not a coffee drinker, at least I never seen him drink that good morning stuff. I bet he likes hot chocolate and might be having a cup of that myself this Saturday.

This is a game we got to have in the win column at the end of the day. Ask any former player, and they will tell you that all the records about this game are thrown out the window when, the teams take the field.

Unless USD has good passing defense, we should be able to make some great passing plays and put points on the field. If our Defense comes to play, the game might be over at half.

[jacks1]

Re: Analyzing the USD mathcup

USD could easily, and probably should have, 4 or 5 more wins. This game is gonna be a lot closer than most think or hope.

[mnjackrbt]

Re: Analyzing the USD mathcup

Its hard to know what will happen with this game. Rumor has it when this game was announced about 2 years ago that USD put a clock up in the locker room counting down the time until kickoff for this game (Glenn may have taken that down now?). Coach Stig told the SDSU guys that "we scheduled a game with USD for 2012, we will not talk about it again until the week of the game." Two years later, here we are, and from what I have heard the game was never even mentioned again until Sunday in Brookings. This all leads to the game being USD superbowl and just another game for SDSU, which could somewhat be why were are in good standing and they are not.

They have a bad defense, we have an offense with potential. If we can open up some running lanes and complete a few passes we should have no problem getting 31+ points. Our defense is dominant as we all know, I doubt USD will get over 200 yards of offense on us.

Final Score: SDSU 34, USD 7.
Potential score if USD plays like its their Super Bowl, SDSU 14, USD 10. All in all its a rivalry game with 1 team playing for everything, 1 for nothing. Who knows what will happen.

[Chains]

Re: Analyzing the USD mathcup

USD could easily, and probably should have, 4 or 5 more wins. This game is gonna be a lot closer than most think or hope.

Could have, should have, did not. The same could be said about the Jacks loss at NDSU. Plus, we played without our starting QB at Kansas. Bottom line is that they are 0 for in the Valley. They admittingly do not play will outside, on the road and on grass. O'ya, the Jacks play outside, on grass and are not in Virm town. I agree USD could have had another win or two this season. I simply think the Jacks will be very focused and finally put forth that complete game. Could USD win this game? Yes. Will they? I don't think so. Jacks by 17.

GBGBGJ

[SUPERBUNNY]

Re: Analyzing the USD mathcup

Huge crowd, huge rivalry, everything on the line for the playoffs, a can of corn, and Senior Day.

The Jacks will take seious care of business Saturday. Book it! Defense sets the tone and the rest of the team follows.

USD 17
Jacks 37

GB, GB, GJ!

SUPERBUNNY

[Southeast]

Re: Analyzing the USD mathcup

Potential score if USD plays like its their Super Bowl, SDSU 14, USD 10. All in all its a rivalry game with 1 team playing for everything, 1 for nothing. Who knows what will happen.

That's my take also. Very strange things can happen in an over-hyped rivalry game, especially if we turn the ball over like we often did early in the season. Look at how UC Davis (3-7) nearly stole a win in Brookings earlier this year. Are they much better than USD?

On paper our strength on defense and rushing the ball should make this a very bad matchup for USD. Take care of the ball and we win by 14+. Turn it over a couple of times and we are in for a tense one.

[Jacked_Up]

Re: Analyzing the USD mathcup

Let's not worry ourselves into a tizzy. At this point in the season, a team is what its record says it is. Jacks fans should be extremely disappointed if SDSU doesn't win.