Stretch-run scenarios

[NoVaJack]

Good news: Jacks control their own destiny. Challenging news: Two of the next three are tough road games. Run the table and you are in great post-season shape.

Overall, Jacks control their own destiny and have ample scenarios where other contenders must lose. Next week will really clarify this muddle with four of the five contenders playing one another: Jacks-SIU, Indiana State-Illinois State. Another thing to consider: While Jacks and Bison have to play three straight weks, the other three contenders each have Nov. 10 off.

Rundown:
Indiana State 5-1 (7-2 overall) Illinois State, @ Youngstown State. Jacks' road win over these guys could make more of a difference than anything else. Best scenario for Jacks may be for them to beat ISU and lose to Youngstown.
NDSU 4-1 (7-1) @ Missouri State, SDSU, @ Illinois State. IMHO NDSU has the toughest schedule left. Remember the Bears? Missouri State left Brookings winless, and since then have won three of four. Two years ago they beat NDSU at home, 3-0, two weeks after Jacks had beaten them by 21. MIssouri State on road is no given for the Bison.
SDSU 4-1 (6-2) @ Southern Illinois, @NDSU, South Dakota Who wouldn't have chosen this scenario two months ago? Realistically, win one of two on the road and hold service at home agains the U and Jacks are in, right? Passing game today will give SIU something more to prepare for.
Southern Illinois 4-2 (5-4) SDSU, WIU They will be fighting for their lives next Saturday. Jacks will need to play best game to win on the road. Gave the Bison all they could handle today until a late pick did them in. But Bison also ran for 186 yards on them and outgained the Salukis more than 2-1 overall. Still, with two home games they may have most favorable schedule.
Illinois State 4-2 (7-2) @ Indiana State, NDSU. One loss would be really bad news for them, if not knock them out. Took advantage of a very sloppy, chippy UNI team today; Panthers got to within five, clearly had momentum, and then kicked off out of bounds and had a personal foul during the kickoff (by a former O'Gorman player) and Illinois State starts the next drive in UNI territory and puts game away).

[Theee Catrabbit]

Re: Stretch-run scenarios

I know I've been saying it all year but THIS WEEK IS DEFINITELY THE MOST IMPORTANT GAME OF THE YEAR!

[Nidaros]

Re: Stretch-run scenarios

I know I've been saying it all year but THIS WEEK IS DEFINITELY THE MOST IMPORTANT GAME OF THE YEAR!

Its ironic, but watching the Woffard interview with Youngstown media, the coach was saying the SDSU game was like a playoff game, they had to win to keep their hopes alive for a playoff spot. He still has not givenup. In todays post game interview, he talking about strength of schedule when asked about the possibilty of a 7-4 team making the playoffs. Yes this game was very important to the Jacks as well.

[HandoEX]

Re: Stretch-run scenarios

Please, please, please, just WIN against SIU. If we can both come out unscathed, although that is absolutely no given, the game in two weeks could be kinda fun. Good luck, your team is better than the skinny dogs, but man do they know how to capitalize on any and every mistake!

[NoVaJack]

Re: Stretch-run scenarios

I know I've been saying it all year but THIS WEEK IS DEFINITELY THE MOST IMPORTANT GAME OF THE YEAR!

you got that right..

[joeboo22]

Re: Stretch-run scenarios

Get to 8 wins and we're in. 7 and then it gets more difficult. I don't really care how it happens though.

[jackmd]

Re: Stretch-run scenarios

Get to 8 wins and where in. 7 and then it gets more difficult. I don't really care how it happens though.

I have no idea if SDSU should be considered for a playoff spot with 7 wins and a 5-3 MVFC record, no idea, none. I am certain that SDSU should be in the playoffs with an wins and a 6-2 MVFC record (at worst the 3rd best record in conference). So, win at SIU or NDSU and win at CAS. One of those 3 things is expected, one is not (by the masses I mean) and one is a toss-up in my mind.

What does this mean? Next Saturday is a playoff game for the Jackrabbits just like yesterday was. I love it!!

[NoVaJack]

Re: Stretch-run scenarios

There is a very good chance the winner of the conference will have two losses. That might make a huge difference for the Jacks if that winner is Indiana State and the Jacks have a victory over them. But the Jacks should just win 9 games and you will be in and everyone else will be worrying about scenarios.

[Roy]

Re: Stretch-run scenarios

After the YSU weekend, Sagarin has the FCS as follows; 1) NDSU, 2) IN St, 3) Sam Houston St, 4) GA So, 5) MT St, 6) Cal Poly-SLO, 7) E WA, 8) S Ill, 9) UNI, 10) SDSU. Five from the MVC!

With his system as of today, it looks like we are 4 point underdogs at S Ill, Fifteen point underdogs in Fargo and Favorites by 20 for the last game before the playoffs!

1-0 this week! Go Jacks!!

[NoVaJack]

Re: Stretch-run scenarios

After the YSU weekend, Sagarin has the FCS as follows; 1) NDSU, 2) IN St, 3) Sam Houston St, 4) GA So, 5) MT St, 6) Cal Poly-SLO, 7) E WA, 8) S Ill, 9) UNI, 10) SDSU. Five from the MVC!

With his system as of today, it looks like we are 4 point underdogs at S Ill, Fifteen point underdogs in Fargo and Favorites by 20 for the last game before the playoffs!

1-0 this week! Go Jacks!!

Thanks for this. Going to take a good three-week stretch here but one at a time.

[jackmd]

Re: Stretch-run scenarios

After the YSU weekend, Sagarin has the FCS as follows; 1) NDSU, 2) IN St, 3) Sam Houston St, 4) GA So, 5) MT St, 6) Cal Poly-SLO, 7) E WA, 8) S Ill, 9) UNI, 10) SDSU. Five from the MVC!

With his system as of today, it looks like we are 4 point underdogs at S Ill, Fifteen point underdogs in Fargo and Favorites by 20 for the last game before the playoffs!

1-0 this week! Go Jacks!!

I've been watching the playoff selection process from afar for the last 5-6 years and unfortunately GPI and conference rank get what seems to be only minor consideration. There is a clear east coast bias or at least there has been. Its inevitable given that the vast majority of teams are out there. A lot of emphasis is placed on tradition and history as well. SDSU has little tradition and the playoff history at the FCS level is one I'd prefer to forget. Jacks need 8 wins to get in IMHO.

[rabidrabbit]

Re: Stretch-run scenarios

After the YSU weekend, Sagarin has the FCS as follows; 1) NDSU, 2) IN St, 3) Sam Houston St, 4) GA So, 5) MT St, 6) Cal Poly-SLO, 7) E WA, 8) S Ill, 9) UNI, 10) SDSU. Five from the MVC!

With his system as of today, it looks like we are 4 point underdogs at S Ill, Fifteen point underdogs in Fargo and Favorites by 20 for the last game before the playoffs!

1-0 this week! Go Jacks!!

Something is very fishy about a rating system that has a team WITH ONLY ONE D-I WIN higher ranked than 6-2 teams, including FBS wins under their belt. SIU's record, as well as UNI's, no matter how fabulous the opponents do not warrant a top 10 spot #sourgrapes

[joeboo22]

Re: Stretch-run scenarios

Something is very fishy about a rating system that has a team WITH ONLY ONE D-I WIN higher ranked than 6-2 teams, including FBS wins under their belt. SIU's record, as well as UNI's, no matter how fabulous the opponents do not warrant a top 10 spot #sourgrapes

It is a computer system, with all honesty I'd put more weight in that then the human polls when it comes to FCS football.

If I understand his computer system right, his predictor has UNI ahead 90-100 (all D-I teams), but the ELO-Chess which is the BCS computer has us ahead 89-134.

The ultimate area where UNI gets its bump is in schedule ranking with a 63 compared to SDSU with a 148 NDSU has a 163 but is ranked 38th in his predictor rankings but again in the ELO-Chess a 75 ranking.

I think the computers (and human polls for that matter) where you see UNI way higher then they should be is because of strength of schedule more so then actual record.

[Hammersmith]

Re: Stretch-run scenarios

It is a computer system, with all honesty I'd put more weight in that then the human polls when it comes to FCS football.

If I understand his computer system right, his predictor has UNI ahead 90-100 (all D-I teams), but the ELO-Chess which is the BCS computer has us ahead 89-134.

The ultimate area where UNI gets its bump is in schedule ranking with a 63 compared to SDSU with a 148 NDSU has a 163 but is ranked 38th in his predictor rankings but again in the ELO-Chess a 75 ranking.

I think the computers (and human polls for that matter) where you see UNI way higher then they should be is because of strength of schedule more so then actual record.

It's more that UNI has performed as well as, or better than, predicted by Sagarin. If the computer model predicted UNI would lose to Wisc by 27 and they only lost by 6, then UNI gets a boost due to their performance(only in predictor and rating, not elo chess).

If you read BV, you might know I throw the following thing out every Sunday morning. Now that I finally have it automated as an excel worksheet, I'll do one for you guys.

			       Sagarin	  Predict    Result	 Diff  
100	South Dakota State	62.49			
 80	Kansas			66.50     - 7.26     -14.00     - 6.74
204	SE Louisiana		40.73	   18.51      17.00     - 1.51
163	UC Davis		51.88	   13.86       4.00     - 9.86
 69	Indiana State		69.41	  -10.17      14.00      24.17
146	Missouri State		56.15	    9.59      10.00       0.41
201	Western Illinois	41.53	   24.21      21.00     - 3.21
 90	Northern Iowa		64.61	  - 5.37     -21.00     -15.63
115	Youngstown State	60.20	    5.54      13.00       7.46
 95	Southern Illinois	63.39	  - 4.15		
 38	North Dakota State	76.79	  -17.55		
191	South Dakota		45.73	   20.01		
					
114	Illinois State		60.52			
					
	Home	3.25

I use the PREDICTOR column from Sagarin, so don't expect the numbers to be the same as the numbers most often reported. The first column is the ranking of all teams in DI. The 'Sagarin' column is the actual Sag rating. The next column is what the computer predicted the score difference to be. Then comes the actual result from games that have been played. The final column is the difference between the computer prediction and reality. Home field advantage is already figured in.

Sagarin predicts losses versus SIU and NDSU. But the SIU game is statistically an almost dead heat, and the NDSU game is just outside the standard deviation for Sagarin. But lets say you lose to SIU by a FG or less. Because you out-performed the model, your rating would hold steady or even rise up a tiny bit. And if you lost a squeaker to NDSU the following week, your rating would definitely go up(and NDSU's would go down). I'm just trying to say that it's more than wins and losses with most computer models; it's how close you kept the game. (except Sagarin elo_chess - that's just wins and losses).

[goon]

Re: Stretch-run scenarios

It's more that UNI has performed as well as, or better than, predicted by Sagarin. If the computer model predicted UNI would lose to Wisc by 27 and they only lost by 6, then UNI gets a boost due to their performance(only in predictor and rating, not elo chess).

If you read BV, you might know I throw the following thing out every Sunday morning. Now that I finally have it automated as an excel worksheet, I'll do one for you guys.

			       Sagarin	  Predict    Result	 Diff  
100	South Dakota State	62.49			
 80	Kansas			66.50     - 7.26     -14.00     - 6.74
204	SE Louisiana		40.73	   18.51      17.00     - 1.51
163	UC Davis		51.88	   13.86       4.00     - 9.86
 69	Indiana State		69.41	  -10.17      14.00      24.17
146	Missouri State		56.15	    9.59      10.00       0.41
201	Western Illinois	41.53	   24.21      21.00     - 3.21
 90	Northern Iowa		64.61	  - 5.37     -21.00     -15.63
115	Youngstown State	60.20	    5.54      13.00       7.46
 95	Southern Illinois	63.39	  - 4.15		
 38	North Dakota State	76.79	  -17.55		
191	South Dakota		45.73	   20.01		
					
114	Illinois State		60.52			
					
	Home	3.25

I use the PREDICTOR column from Sagarin, so don't expect the numbers to be the same as the numbers most often reported. The first column is the ranking of all teams in DI. The 'Sagarin' column is the actual Sag rating. The next column is what the computer predicted the score difference to be. Then comes the actual result from games that have been played. The final column is the difference between the computer prediction and reality. Home field advantage is already figured in.

Sagarin predicts losses versus SIU and NDSU. But the SIU game is statistically an almost dead heat, and the NDSU game is just outside the standard deviation for Sagarin. But lets say you lose to SIU by a FG or less. Because you out-performed the model, your rating would hold steady or even rise up a tiny bit. And if you lost a squeaker to NDSU the following week, your rating would definitely go up(and NDSU's would go down). I'm just trying to say that it's more than wins and losses with most computer models; it's how close you kept the game. (except Sagarin elo_chess - that's just wins and losses).

I feel like I was just reading a story problem in school and couldn't figure out what the question was asking.