How FBS playoffs could affect Jacks

[NoVaJack]

Two predictions, based on my reading of the four-team playoff's likely impact:

- It will become harder for the Jacks to get FBS opponents, both contenders and pretenders.
Strength of schedule will play hugely into which four schools get chosen for the new upper division playoff. It will mean that the Illinoises and Kansases and Minnesotas of the world will not want to play FCS opponents because it will diminish any chances they have to contend; concurrently schools like Kansas and Illinois and Minnesota are also more likely to get scooped up by the bigger fish because the Nebraskas of the world cannot afford to have their non-conferences schedules include FCS opponents, either. You have to win a lot but you also have to win against teams that have strong schedules. Survival of the fittest within the subdivisions will be quite clarified and enhanced with this change.

So for schools like SDSU, with legitimate and correct aspirations to compete for national titles in the current setup, the correct route would be to try to get on the radar for perennial FCS powers like Maine, James Madision, Delaware, Appalachian State, etc.

- Some of those perennial powers will be pulled into the FBS. The roiling and conference shifting in FBS already underway will accelerate, as conferences try to fill out and settle in under the new championship motif. That could accelerate some schools' pushes to move up from FCS (cue NDSU fan-forum flurry here).

Bottom line? If I were a Jack scheduler I'd be shifting from the one FCS and two strong FBS non-conference opponents' model and would be pushing for home on home arrangements with perennial powers in our division no matter where they are on the map.

[SF_Rabbit_Fan]

Re: How FBS playoffs could affect Jacks

I trust your judgement, and definitely don't understand the ins and outs, but:

IMO, all FBS schools clamoring for 4 playoff spots instead of 2 won't change things that much. If you're Minnesota (or Ohio St for that matter), you pretty much only get a spot by winning the Big10, just like now.

Getting to a bowl game will still be the focus of the VAST majority of college football teams, and the Minnesota, Illinois, and Kansas of the world might be more than happy to let Nebraska, Ohio State, and Penn State take arrows that improve their SOS enough to squeak them into a better bowl. IMO, that's what this is about, keeping the likes of Nevada and UMass out of bowl games.

IMO, this move was made to give the appearance of progress and change, without actually changing much of anything. Placate the talking heads and fans that have been whining for the last 10 years. I could definitely be wrong though.

[NoVaJack]

Re: How FBS playoffs could affect Jacks

I trust your judgement, and definitely don't understand the ins and outs, but:

IMO, all FBS schools clamoring for 4 playoff spots instead of 2 won't change things that much. If you're Minnesota (or Ohio St for that matter), you pretty much only get a spot by winning the Big10, just like now.

Getting to a bowl game will still be the focus of the VAST majority of college football teams, and the Minnesota, Illinois, and Kansas of the world might be more than happy to let Nebraska, Ohio State, and Penn State take arrows that improve their SOS enough to squeak them into a better bowl. IMO, that's what this is about, keeping the likes of Nevada and UMass out of bowl games.

IMO, this move was made to give the appearance of progress and change, without actually changing much of anything. Placate the talking heads and fans that have been whining for the last 10 years. I could definitely be wrong though.

Point is they are going to count strength of schedule even more and so schools with regular aspirations for a national title (Nebraska) have even less reason to play FCS schools, and schools like Minnesota are more attractive on a non-conference schedule than an Appalachian State or SDSU.

[LakeJack]

Re: How FBS playoffs could affect Jacks

I trust your judgement, and definitely don't understand the ins and outs, but:

IMO, all FBS schools clamoring for 4 playoff spots instead of 2 won't change things that much. If you're Minnesota (or Ohio St for that matter), you pretty much only get a spot by winning the Big10, just like now.

Getting to a bowl game will still be the focus of the VAST majority of college football teams, and the Minnesota, Illinois, and Kansas of the world might be more than happy to let Nebraska, Ohio State, and Penn State take arrows that improve their SOS enough to squeak them into a better bowl. IMO, that's what this is about, keeping the likes of Nevada and UMass out of bowl games.

IMO, this move was made to give the appearance of progress and change, without actually changing much of anything. Placate the talking heads and fans that have been whining for the last 10 years. I could definitely be wrong though.

This. You are going to have to be a super big time program to really worry how your SOS affects your chances of making one of the 4 spots. Plenty of teams still out there just looking for 6 wins so that they can go to a bowl and FBS AD's wanting the revenue from one more home football game. I am not worried about SDSU's ability to sign deals with FBS schools

[rabidrabbit]

Re: How FBS playoffs could affect Jacks

Looks to me that SDSU will be continuing with the 1 FBS and 2 FCS OOC (1 home 1 away) well into the foreseeable future for 11 game seasons. Need to assure that for 12 game seasons that 2 FCS games are played at Coughlin.

[SDSUAlum08]

Re: How FBS playoffs could affect Jacks

If it's going to be tougher for FCS programs to get FBS games, will that help decrease the price of bringing in an FCS opponent? Or at least keep them from increasing? Basic supply and demand.

[SF_Rabbit_Fan]

Re: How FBS playoffs could affect Jacks

Point is they are going to count strength of schedule even more and so schools with regular aspirations for a national title (Nebraska) have even less reason to play FCS schools, and schools like Minnesota are more attractive on a non-conference schedule than an Appalachian State or SDSU.

You make a valid point, and I could see how it could get a little tougher to schedule FBS games.

However, last season #6 Arkansas played 5 top 25 teams and lost 2 games last year - to #1(LSU) and #2(Alabama). They finished the season 6th in BCS rankings and would have had to leapfrog 2 teams to get into the playoff. I'm not sure dropping their Missouri State game would have done that.

The real effort for all but 15-30 college football teams will be to get into a bowl game, just like always. Unless the NCAA changed the bowl eligibility rule to exclude an FCS win, it seems like business as usual.

Would Iowa State rather play Nebraska and propel them into the playoff, or play SDSU to improve their own chances of getting into a bowl?

The proof is in the pudding, but until I see it happening I will be skeptical.

[NoVaJack]

Re: How FBS playoffs could affect Jacks

You make a valid point, and I could see how it could get a little tougher to schedule FBS games.

However, last season #6 Arkansas played 5 top 25 teams and lost 2 games last year - to #1(LSU) and #2(Alabama). They finished the season 6th in BCS rankings and would have had to leapfrog 2 teams to get into the playoff. I'm not sure dropping their Missouri State game would have done that.

The real effort for all but 15-30 college football teams will be to get into a bowl game, just like always. Unless the NCAA changed the bowl eligibility rule to exclude an FCS win, it seems like business as usual.

Would Iowa State rather play Nebraska and propel them into the playoff, or play SDSU to improve their own chances of getting into a bowl?

The proof is in the pudding, but until I see it happening I will be skeptical.

Good points on BCS rankings, but say for the sake of argument they'd played another Top 25 team and won instead of Mo. State, or even a middle-40s-ranked team that had a brutal schedule and won, I bet it would have catapulted them a lot closer to four than that Mo. State blowout. And remember, we are talking about four and not two working off the strength of schedule model.

[rabidrabbit]

Re: How FBS playoffs could affect Jacks

LSU played WKU for their soft game last year and McNeese St. in 2010. Alabama played non-counter GA St. in 2010, and Ga Southern in 2011. (BTW, Ga Southern stayed closer in that late Nov game than did many of the SEC teams).

Maybe it will get tougher to get FBS money games with the FBS play-offs. But the non-BCS teams will still be locked out of being a top 4 team. Basically, if you're not an SEC, Big 10, Big 12, or Pac-12 team, you're not winning the #1 title in FBS (exception Notre Dame and BYU, as independents).

[NoVaJack]

Re: How FBS playoffs could affect Jacks

LSU played WKU for their soft game last year and McNeese St. in 2010. Alabama played non-counter GA St. in 2010, and Ga Southern in 2011. (BTW, Ga Southern stayed closer in that late Nov game than did many of the SEC teams).

Maybe it will get tougher to get FBS money games with the FBS play-offs. But the non-BCS teams will still be locked out of being a top 4 team. Basically, if you're not an SEC, Big 10, Big 12, or Pac-12 team, you're not winning the #1 title in FBS (exception Notre Dame and BYU, as independents).

Glad there are no Virginia Tech fans on this board.

[SF_Rabbit_Fan]

Re: How FBS playoffs could affect Jacks

Good points on BCS rankings, but say for the sake of argument they'd played another Top 25 team and won instead of Mo. State, or even a middle-40s-ranked team that had a brutal schedule and won, I bet it would have catapulted them a lot closer to four than that Mo. State blowout. And remember, we are talking about four and not two working off the strength of schedule model.

Looking back at all this stuff reminds me why the old system is so terrible.

Oregon finished #5 ahead of Arkansas despite only playing 3 top 25 teams as well as Missouri State (beat them by 5 more points), and their 2 losses were against #1LSU and unranked USC.

The old system was a joke, and everybody knew it. IMO, the new system is meant to convey a feeling of change without actually changing anything. Even though 4 teams will be playing on the field, the method for selecting those teams will be just as flawed as before, despite algorithm adjustments. Oh, and the BC$ gets one more game out of the deal.

Who knows what all this means for scheduling, but I think power conference FBS schools will continue playing down to the FCS level as their SOS from conference play will be good enough if their record is good enough (1-2 losses). Good non BCS FBS schools (Houston, Southern Miss) will shy away as they will be desperate to have even a farce of a shot at a national championship, which a win against FCS would negate. This already occurs - Houston, SoMiss, Boise St, and TCU didn't play any FCS opponents last year.

[rabidrabbit]

Re: How FBS playoffs could affect Jacks

Or App St, JMU fans......

[MikeHenriksen]

Re: How FBS playoffs could affect Jacks

Here you go.

http://huskerextra.com/sports/husker...5bc4e8e08.html

[Prairiehaas]

Re: How FBS playoffs could affect Jacks

IMHO, this change to a 4 team playoff doesn't change the overall calculus much. In terms of SOS would it be better for a BCS power to beat a 10-1 FCS team or a 1-10 FBS team?