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  • #1

    Best case scenario for conference standings

    It's pretty early for this, but that's what fans are for. This might be the best case scenario for us this season - is it possible?

    Final Conference Standings
    Team: Conference Record:
    Northern Iowa 6-2
    Western Illinois 6-2
    South Dakota State 6-2
    Southern Illinois 5-3
    North Dakota State 3-5
    Illinois State 3-5
    Youngstown State 3-5
    Indiana State 2-6
    Missouri State 2-6

    This is obviously dependent on us winning out first and foremost (forgot 1-0 each week, we are fans). I don't see UNI losing more than one more game this season (at WIU hopefully). Since UNI beat us head to head, we would have to hope for a three way tie atop the league with another team that beat UNI (WIU defeating UNI the last game of the season at Macomb). Since all three teams would then be tied and would have each defeated one of the others, the tiebreaker would move to the three teams record against the team in fourth. Our best hope would be for SIU to be in fourth. We have already beat SIU and UNI has already lost to SIU, and in my scenario WIU will beat SIU in a few weeks. If that happens, then UNI would be eliminated and the conference title would be determined by SDSU vs. WIU head to head - in other words, we would be conference champions.

    Now...can this actually happen? A couple key games that have to go right. SIU and SDSU have to win in Fargo, WIU has to beat UNI the last week of the season, and the anticipated favorites need to win the rest of the conference games.

    This scenario can also work if SIU runs the table, as they would flip flop with WIU in the standings then and the tiebreaker would come down to UNI losing to WIU (thus eliminating the Panthers) and then our head to head win over the Salukis.
    "I'd like to thank the good Lord for making me a Yankee." - Joe D.
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  • #2
    Re: Best case scenario for conference standings

    Originally posted by jackrabbit1979 View Post
    It's pretty early for this, but that's what fans are for. This might be the best case scenario for us this season - is it possible?

    Final Conference Standings
    Team: Conference Record:
    Northern Iowa 6-2
    Western Illinois 6-2
    South Dakota State 6-2
    Southern Illinois 5-3
    North Dakota State 3-5
    Illinois State 3-5
    Youngstown State 3-5
    Indiana State 2-6
    Missouri State 2-6

    This is obviously dependent on us winning out first and foremost (forgot 1-0 each week, we are fans). I don't see UNI losing more than one more game this season (at WIU hopefully). Since UNI beat us head to head, we would have to hope for a three way tie atop the league with another team that beat UNI (WIU defeating UNI the last game of the season at Macomb). Since all three teams would then be tied and would have each defeated one of the others, the tiebreaker would move to the three teams record against the team in fourth. Our best hope would be for SIU to be in fourth. We have already beat SIU and UNI has already lost to SIU, and in my scenario WIU will beat SIU in a few weeks. If that happens, then UNI would be eliminated and the conference title would be determined by SDSU vs. WIU head to head - in other words, we would be conference champions.

    Now...can this actually happen? A couple key games that have to go right. SIU and SDSU have to win in Fargo, WIU has to beat UNI the last week of the season, and the anticipated favorites need to win the rest of the conference games.

    This scenario can also work if SIU runs the table, as they would flip flop with WIU in the standings then and the tiebreaker would come down to UNI losing to WIU (thus eliminating the Panthers) and then our head to head win over the Salukis.

    After eliminating UNI, wouldnt you then go to the 5th place team to see how WIU and SDSU did against them? And so on? Im not sure once you have a 3 way tie that you would actually go back to head to head with WIU. But i dont know for sure.

    Comment

    • #3
      Re: Best case scenario for conference standings

      Originally posted by mitchellrabbit View Post
      After eliminating UNI, wouldnt you then go to the 5th place team to see how WIU and SDSU did against them? And so on? Im not sure once you have a 3 way tie that you would actually go back to head to head with WIU. But i dont know for sure.

      Nope...here are the tiebreaker rules from the conference website (look at #2 and Case No. 2):


      THREE TEAMS ARE TIED
      (1) Comparison of cumulative records involving games with the tied teams. For example, if a team is 2-0 against two other tied teams, that team will be declared champion.
      (2) If the tied teams have identical records against other tied teams, then each team’s record against the next highest ranked team in the league standings (except the teams which are tied) will be used to determine the automatic bid.
      Case No. 1: Team A, B & C are tied and have 1-1 records against each other. Team D finished fourth. Team A beat team D, while B & C both lost to team D. A is the champion.
      Case No. 2: Team A, B & C are tied and have 1-1 records against each other. Team A & B beat D, but C lost to D. C is eliminated, and the automatic bid goes to the winner of A & B head-to-head.
      Case No. 3: Team A, B & C are tied and have 1-1 records against each other. All three teams beat (or lost to) Team D. Continue down the standings, starting with       the fifth, then sixth, and seventh-place team, if necessary.
      (3) If the three-way tie cannot be broken by (1) or (2) above, the latest available GPI ranking prior to NCAA selection shall be used as the final tiebreaker.
      "I'd like to thank the good Lord for making me a Yankee." - Joe D.

      Comment

      • #4
        Re: Best case scenario for conference standings

        Originally posted by jackrabbit1979 View Post
        Nope...here are the tiebreaker rules from the conference website (look at #2 and Case No. 2):


        THREE TEAMS ARE TIED
        (1) Comparison of cumulative records involving games with the tied teams. For example, if a team is 2-0 against two other tied teams, that team will be declared champion.
        (2) If the tied teams have identical records against other tied teams, then each team’s record against the next highest ranked team in the league standings (except the teams which are tied) will be used to determine the automatic bid.
        Case No. 1: Team A, B & C are tied and have 1-1 records against each other. Team D finished fourth. Team A beat team D, while B & C both lost to team D. A is the champion.
        Case No. 2: Team A, B & C are tied and have 1-1 records against each other. Team A & B beat D, but C lost to D. C is eliminated, and the automatic bid goes to the winner of A & B head-to-head.
        Case No. 3: Team A, B & C are tied and have 1-1 records against each other. All three teams beat (or lost to) Team D. Continue down the standings, starting with         the fifth, then sixth, and seventh-place team, if necessary.
        (3) If the three-way tie cannot be broken by (1) or (2) above, the latest available GPI ranking prior to NCAA selection shall be used as the final tiebreaker.


        yep, i see it now.

        Comment

        • #5
          Re: Best case scenario for conference standings

          Originally posted by jackrabbit1979 View Post
          Nope...here are the tiebreaker rules from the conference website (look at #2 and Case No. 2):


          THREE TEAMS ARE TIED
          (1) Comparison of cumulative records involving games with the tied teams. For example, if a team is 2-0 against two other tied teams, that team will be declared champion.
          (2) If the tied teams have identical records against other tied teams, then each team’s record against the next highest ranked team in the league standings (except the teams which are tied) will be used to determine the automatic bid.
          Case No. 1: Team A, B & C are tied and have 1-1 records against each other. Team D finished fourth. Team A beat team D, while B & C both lost to team D. A is the champion.
          Case No. 2: Team A, B & C are tied and have 1-1 records against each other. Team A & B beat D, but C lost to D. C is eliminated, and the automatic bid goes to the winner of A & B head-to-head.
          Case No. 3: Team A, B & C are tied and have 1-1 records against each other. All three teams beat (or lost to) Team D. Continue down the standings, starting with           the fifth, then sixth, and seventh-place team, if necessary.
          (3) If the three-way tie cannot be broken by (1) or (2) above, the latest available GPI ranking prior to NCAA selection shall be used as the final tiebreaker.
          Thanks, Clear as mud. I was hoping the outcome would say that no matter the final standings, SDSU kicks butt and makes the playoffs again.
          "The most rewarding things you do in life, are often the ones that look like they cannot be done.” Arnold Palmer

          Don't sweat the petty things, and don't pet the sweaty things.

          Comment

          • #6
            Re: Best case scenario for conference standings

            Let's assume that UNI wins out, and SDSU wins out.

            UNI is the AQ. SDSU would be in 2nd, with SIU at the worst, and may be alone at 6-2.

            Current Standings:

            Northern Iowa 3-1 4-3
            Western Illinois 3-2 5-3
            South Dakota State 3-2 3-4
            Illinois State 3-3 4-4
            Indiana State 2-2 4-3
            Missouri State 2-2 3-4
            Southern Illinois 2-2 3-4
            North Dakota State 2-3 5-3
            Youngstown State 1-4 3-5


            For UNI to win out, means WIU loses to UNI in the last week. Other teams with two losses in MVFC, InST, Mo St, and SIU. SIU have already been thumped. InSt and Mo St, Jacks still need to beat. WIU would have three losses if UNI wins. Therefore, SDSU would be #2 in the MVFC, and even if SIU ties, they had a D-II game, and wouldn't have the 7 D-I victories. Then it becomes are the 7 W's at the end enough to make the play-offs? Only one team from the MVFC is extremely rare, even when MVFC only had 7-8 teams. SDSU would have only one non-rated loss (Il St). Our competition is a 4th, 5th CAA, a 2nd place MEAC, and a 4th Big Sky member, Cal Poly, if they share the GWFC crown with SUU, and a 4th place SoCon.

            Jacks must win out, but if they do, IMHO they'll be one of the two added at-large's in the FCS play-offs.

            Comment

            • #7
              Re: Best case scenario for conference standings

              UNI is only a 3 point favorite at Younstown St. this coming weekend... I don't think it's "safe" to assume that UNI will only lose one of their remaining games. As we've all seen, ANYTHING can happen in the Valley this year!

              Comment

              • #8
                Re: Best case scenario for conference standings

                Originally posted by Jacked_Rabbit View Post
                UNI is only a 3 point favorite at Younstown St. this coming weekend... I don't think it's "safe" to assume that UNI will only lose one of their remaining games. As we've all seen, ANYTHING can happen in the Valley this year!
                GO 'Guins!

                Comment

                • #9
                  Re: Best case scenario for conference standings

                  Originally posted by slosho View Post
                  GO 'Guins!
                  What he said!
                  You know that you're over the hill when your mind makes a promise that your body can't fill. - L. George

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Re: Best case scenario for conference standings

                    Originally posted by Jacked_Rabbit View Post
                    UNI is only a 3 point favorite at Younstown St. this coming weekend... I don't think it's "safe" to assume that UNI will only lose one of their remaining games. As we've all seen, ANYTHING can happen in the Valley this year!
                    I echo the go Guins as well! However like State, UNI is playing their best football right now, so YSU is going to have it's hands full.
                    With fans like this who needs enemas.....

                    Comment

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