Way Too Early Look at Summit MBB 2025

[peavy]

2025 projection per barttorvik.com

table headers: adjoe (adjusted offensive efficiency), adjde (adjusted defensive efficiency), barthag (power rating - chance of beating avg d1 team), projected record (using 2024 schedule)
returning minutes (adjusted for injuries), returning possession minutes, projected effective talent, projected effective experience, transfer points



Values will continue to change as teams pick up portal players. With that being said, without doing any research to verify this claim and considering all the Summit movement, one has to believe the Jacks are the first team to be set with their roster, assuming no one else enters the portal.

[bigticket1]

2025 projection per barttorvik.com

table headers: adjoe (adjusted offensive efficiency), adjde (adjusted defensive efficiency), barthag (power rating - chance of beating avg d1 team), projected record (using 2024 schedule)
returning minutes (adjusted for injuries), returning possession minutes, projected effective talent, projected effective experience, transfer points



Values will continue to change as teams pick up portal players. With that being said, without doing any research to verify this claim and considering all the Summit movement, one has to believe the Jacks are the first team to be set with their roster, assuming no one else enters the portal.

I am curious about the talent number. I assumed that the higher the number the better, until I saw that ORU has the highest number, and are picked near the bottom. They probably lost more talent between graduation and the portal than anyone.

[peavy]

I am curious about the talent number. I assumed that the higher the number the better, until I saw that ORU has the highest number, and are picked near the bottom. They probably lost more talent between graduation and the portal than anyone.

Found this comment (will have to ctrl f to find it) by Torvik on the related blog site saying talent is based on recruiting rank. It does look like the SDSU "talent" will increase between now and the May 15th when Burton signs his NLI since Torvik doesn't have him listed on the roster. ORU has had one 3 star in each of their past three classes (3 star Cam Ambrose from the '22 class entered the portal last month).

No idea if transfer points go into talent or if the player's original recruiting rank would instead go into that calculation. 247 had Lindsey as a 3star 88 grade as a prospect (no star, no grade as transfer) and Cluff as a 3 star 88 grade transfer (no star/grade as prospect). For reference, WK3 has a 4star 91 grade as a transfer.

Maybe a good generalization is that ORU will always have higher ranked recruits based on the evaluations that occur in the areas they recruit. Similar to Campbell having the top ranked FCS recruiting classes since they hit CA and FL heavily.