The Summit vs. The Valley: Men's Basketball

[filbert]

My working hypothesis (spin, Official Party Line, whatever) is that the Summit League should have in its sights the Missouri Valley Conference, and that the Summit is starting to close the gap.

Here's the composite listing of Summit and Missouri Valley men's basketball Sagarin ratings, as of today:

2010-11:
57 Oakland . . . . . . . . 81.55
64 Wichita State . . . . . 80.73
73 Missouri State . . . . 79.94
113 Indiana State . . . . . 76.05
119 Northern Iowa . . . . . 75.62
127 Creighton . . . . . . . 75.05
134 IUPUI . . . . . . . . . 74.64
136 Oral Roberts . . . . . 74.44
137 South Dakota State . . 74.38
VALLEY AVERAGE . . . . 73.28 (Central Mean)
172 IPFW . . . . . . . . . 72.08
170 Evansville . . . . . . 72.13
191 North Dakota State . . 70.59
SUMMIT AVERAGE . . . . 69.98
211 Drake . . . . . . . . . 69.39
212 Southern Illinois . . . 69.37
217 Bradley . . . . . . . . 68.92
236 Illinois State . . . . 67.61
245 UMKC . . . . . . . . . 67.14
265 Southern Utah . . . . . 65.79
300 South Dakota . . . . . 63.15
330 Western Illinois . . . 58.16
343 Centenary . . . . . . . 52.13

2009-10
23 Northern Iowa . . . . . 85.98
67 Wichita State . . . . . 80.49
69 Missouri State . . . . 79.78
88 Illinois State . . . . 78.28
VALLEY AVERAGE . . . . 76.60 (Central mean)
103 Creighton . . . . . . . 76.40
107 Bradley . . . . . . . . 76.16
109 IUPUI . . . . . . . . . 76.08
113 Oakland . . . . . . . . 75.96
126 Indiana State . . . . . 74.88
129 Southern Illinois . . . 74.69
146 Oral Roberts . . . . . 73.61
163 Drake . . . . . . . . . 72.03
219 Evansville . . . . . . 68.08
226 South Dakota State . . 67.44
229 IPFW . . . . . . . . . 67.02
230 South Dakota . . . . . 66.92
SUMMIT AVERAGE . . . . 66.52 (Central mean)
254 North Dakota State . . 65.13
280 Western Illinois . . . 63.11
289 UMKC . . . . . . . . . 62.52
319 Centenary . . . . . . . 58.93
321 Southern Utah . . . . . 58.44

2008-09
69 Creighton . . . . . . . 80.32
75 Illinois State . . . . 79.53
80 North Dakota State . . 79.12
85 Northern Iowa . . . . . 78.73
109 Oakland . . . . . . . . 75.51
113 Bradley . . . . . . . . 75.14
119 Oral Roberts . . . . . 74.56
VALLEY AVERAGE . . . . 74.45 (Central mean)
128 Wichita State . . . . . 73.85
130 Evansville . . . . . . 73.81
143 Drake . . . . . . . . . 73.17
156 Southern Illinois . . . 72.51
195 Missouri State . . . . 69.91
196 IUPUI . . . . . . . . . 69.84
205 South Dakota . . . . . 69.39
211 Indiana State . . . . . 68.92
SUMMIT AVERAGE . . . . 68.60 (Central mean)
234 IPFW . . . . . . . . . 67.77
241 South Dakota State . . 67.22
243 Southern Utah . . . . . 67.04
279 Centenary . . . . . . . 64.72
297 UMKC . . . . . . . . . 62.85
308 Western Illinois . . . 61.82

[filbert]

Re: The Summit vs. The Valley: Men's Basketball

Initial discussion:

Number of Summit teams above the Valley league average:
08-09: 3; 09-10: 0; 10-11: 4.

Number of Valley teams below the Summit league average:
08-09: 0; 09-10: 0; 10-11: 4.

It's fair to say that the Valley is down this year, but I think it's also fair that the Summit is up. And, many of the Summit teams that are up are relatively young and/or are getting significant production from their freshmen.

Also, as we've noted before, two of the perennial cellar-dwellers in the Summit, Centenary and Southern Utah, are departing the league, while South Dakota is coming in. While USD has had (for them) a bad year this year, there should be little doubt that this is a net improvement.

Especially if Oakland makes a bit of noise in the tournament, the Summit looks like it's in a position to maybe win a few more recruiting battles against the Valley--from a simple league competitive point of view.

In fact, I'd say it's close to critical for Oakland to win a game or two in the tournament, both to raise the profile of the league and to gain the additional shares of the NCAA tournament money which would fuel additional growth in Summit League programs.

Finally, there's still work to be done--by all of the Summit League programs, from Oakland to Western Illinois.

But it seems to me that the down year the Valley has obviously experienced this year represents a golden (grizzlie?) opportunity for the Summit League--all of the schools.

Go Grizzlies!

[SF_Rabbit_Fan]

Re: The Summit vs. The Valley: Men's Basketball

I agree 100% with where you're going with this filbert. The Summit is clearly on the upswing, and unless someone leaves in the next 5 years it is going to continue to improve.

If we can work the conference rpi into the 12-15 range, we are going to become known as a solid basketball conference. We're 17 now.

[filbert]

Re: The Summit vs. The Valley: Men's Basketball

And, an observation on SDSU's progress . . .

Taking the Summit-Valley group as a whole:

in 2008-9, SDSU was #17 of the 21 schools.
In 2009-10, SDSU was #14, up three spots.
In 2010-11, SDSU was #9 (as of today), up five spots.

If the coaching staff can come up with two or three people who will really fill the obvious holes in SDSU's lineup, it's not out of the question that this trend will continue into 2011-12. If they don't, we'll slip, I think.

The big hurdle is to somehow get two teams into the NCAA Tournament. Getting out of the single-bid pack of conferences is really what the league should be working toward.

In order to do that, the entire conference from top to bottom has to improve. Improvement in the bottom half of the conference is at least as important as continued development of the upper division. I don't think you can be a multiple-bid conference if the bottom of the conference is dragging the anchor along the bottom of sub-200-Sagarin/RPI ratings. Look at the Valley, the past three years . . . this year, they've got four teams under 200 in Sagarin, and not coincidentally, they are a one-bid league this year.

The bottom teams in the Summit HAVE to get better. Western Illinois, I'm looking at you. UMKC, I'm calling you out. Southern Utah . . . aw, hell, you're headed for the Big Sky anyway . . .

(USD, you get a pass. For next year. After that, get with the program!)

[Prairiehaas]

Re: The Summit vs. The Valley: Men's Basketball

In statistics there is a nonparametric test called Tukey's Quick Test, to compare the medians (similar to means) of two data sets. I've used this test to compare Summit to The Valley the last two years.

This year that test cannot be made because there is no slip between the Summit and Valley rankings. That is the highest ranking and the lowest ranking are not in one conference and the other. The highest ranking and the lowest ranking are in the same conference, the Summit. Therefore a difference between medians cannot be determined and so I must assume they are the same. The median ranking of the Summit teams equals the median ranking of the Valley teams.

[sfjacksfan99]

Re: The Summit vs. The Valley: Men's Basketball

I've been wondering a little about the fact the Valley must be down because the regular season winner (Mo. St.) has been addressed as "First Four Out" on the bubble watch on ESPN. Note: Indiana St. won the tournament title. A few years ago several teams, 3 maybe 4, were getting in from the Valley. Now it looks like they're only getting one.

That is what was telling me they were down this year. Remember just last year UNI busting a lot of brackets in round 2 against Kansas.

Well done on the reseach guys. I do think the Summit is getting stronger. And your stats say so. I also think this might be just a bump in the road for the Valley. They have a lot of history of being a powerful mid-major conference.

[MVCfans]

Re: The Summit vs. The Valley: Men's Basketball

Someone linked here from our site: http://www.mvcfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=972 and I thought I might take a moment to respond.

First of all, as a fan of the Missouri Valley Conference and mid-major basketball, I hope that Oakland has a great tourney run.

The MVC has had success in the NCAA tournament with Sweet 16's by UNI, Wichita State, Bradley, Southern Illinois, and Missouri State in the last decade or so. The difference between the two conferences is the commitment and the resources. Many of the MVC schools are "basketball" schools and will pay their coaches like BCS teams because their respective programs drive revenue for the entire athletic department.

No question the MVC had a down year, but I think the difference between the two leagues top to bottom remains fairly considerable.

Good luck to Oakland in the Dance!

[Yote53]

Re: The Summit vs. The Valley: Men's Basketball

If you look at the Summit teams many of the schools either just completed the transition (SDSU, NDSU), are in the tail end of it (USD) or are just about to begin (UNO). These schools are just beginning to ramp up their basketball programs in terms of talent, resources, and facilities. Looking at the Valley, I don't know how much higher that conference can go. Looking at the Summit, I see room for a lot of growth and the potential for most of the schools to achieve "Valley-like" levels. Given time the gap between the two conferences will close.

[FargoBison]

Re: The Summit vs. The Valley: Men's Basketball

I think the Summit could get there but most of the league needs to make significant facility improvements.

NDSU is well on its way to achieving that. USD and UNO might be getting the wheels in motion, so there is hope. But UMKC, IPFW, IUPUI and WIU need to invest serious $$$ into their programs if they want to make significant strides.

I do think the tighter footprint should help, traveling to Utah and Louisiana was a burden on basically every school in the league.

In many ways the MVC is where the Summit wants to be but to get there will require a huge investment by our membership.

[filbert]

Re: The Summit vs. The Valley: Men's Basketball

Someone linked here from our site: http://www.mvcfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=972 and I thought I might take a moment to respond.

First of all, as a fan of the Missouri Valley Conference and mid-major basketball, I hope that Oakland has a great tourney run.

The MVC has had success in the NCAA tournament with Sweet 16's by UNI, Wichita State, Bradley, Southern Illinois, and Missouri State in the last decade or so. The difference between the two conferences is the commitment and the resources. Many of the MVC schools are "basketball" schools and will pay their coaches like BCS teams because their respective programs drive revenue for the entire athletic department.

No question the MVC had a down year, but I think the difference between the two leagues top to bottom remains fairly considerable.

Good luck to Oakland in the Dance!

Hello and welcome!

I'll admit this thread is some pretty blatant drum-thumping on my part to whip up the natives (i.e Summit League schools) to give them a clear idea of what the league's goals vis a vis men's basketball should be.

The Valley is where the Summit should be trying to get to. Nobody is saying that we're there yet, or that it won't be a lot of work, or that a lot of additional resources won't need to be thrown at the project to get there.

Part of the reason for this thread is that there's a very strange phenomenon, especially in South Dakota, where people just assume that for whatever reason, "it can't be done." I've never seen that phenomenon--at least never seen it so rampant--anywhere else I've been. It's kind of an anti-civic-spirit sort of thing, and very, very bizarre, and very, very ingrained into the psyche of many South Dakotans.

That's why I created this thread--to let people--especially those people--know that "you know what, people, this is something that really is possible."

And, of course, remember that my screen name means "small, white nut." At least two of the three of those terms probably describes me fairly accurately. And I'm really not that small.