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I am stealing this from Professor Chaos for AGS. I thought it was thoughtful analysis that laid out the playoff picture for all of the MVFC teams.
Two teams were eliminated in week 10 leaving only 6 teams still in contention for a playoff spot. Due to Illinois St's stunning turnaround I think there's now an outside shot of 5 MVFC teams making it to the playoffs but it's still looking like 4 is more likely given that with the way the conference season has gone there's probably going to be some head scratching losses in the last two weeks by teams that can't afford them. I've ordered the teams according to who I think has the easiest path, or is already locked in, to the playoffs to the toughest along with my thoughts on where each is shaking out.
Locks
North Dakota St (8-1, 5-1)
Quality wins: CSU, EWU, @Iowa, @WIU, YSU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: ISUb, @USD
The Bison locked themselves into the field picking up yet another quality win against YSU. I'd think they're in position to have homefield throughout the playoffs once again as a top 2 seed if they win out but whos knows with this selection committee's curious initial rankings. I think even if they split their final two they'll be seeded but they should be heavily favored to win both.
Should be in
South Dakota St (6-3, 5-1)
Quality wins: WIU, @NDSU, YSU
Bad losses: @ISUr (although this loss isn't looking as bad as it did a week ago)
Remaining games: USD, @UNI
The Jacks got on track today knocking MSU out of playoff contention in convincing fashion. I think one more win locks them in and they face a reeling USD team at home next week with a good chance to get that. They better not mess around with that one though because that season finale in Cedar Falls has the potential to be a big game for UNI so that definitely won't be a gimme. I still think if they win out they've got a shot at a seed but they'd need help, especially considering the committee's odd placement of NDSU doesn't appear to show they value SDSU or the MVFC very strongly right now.
Work left to do
Youngstown St (6-3, 4-2)
Quality wins: None
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: SIU, @MSU
No good wins but no bad losses for YSU means they need to win their last 2 to lock themselves in which is definitely doable given they're facing two teams that are essentially just playing for pride at this point. However, if they only win 1 they'll find themselves in a familiar place firmly on the bubble come Selection Sunday given their weak non-conference schedule and complete lack of quality wins. Their chances at a bye went by the wayside with their loss today but making the playoffs for the first time in 10 years would be a great step forward for this program.
Western Illinois (6-3, 3-3)
Quality wins: NIU
Bad losses: ISUr (like SDSU it's tough to call this a bad loss - the timing of it is bad moreso than the opponent)
Remaining games: UNI, @SIU
The Necks were the latest team to fall victim to a suddendly revitalized ISUr squad and they're now very much on the bubble with a UNI team coming to town next week that's desperate for a win. They need to win both of their final games to take out a Selection Sunday sweat. I think they'll be fine even if they only win one to finish at 7-4 but they'd have to depend on bubble teams elsewhere helping them out a bit. Their seeds chances also went out the window today but they've got bigger worries than that right now.
Must win out
Illinois St (5-5, 3-4)
Quality wins: @Northwestern, SDSU, @WIU
Bad losses: @ISUb, @USD
Remaining games: MSU
The roller coaster season for the Redbirds hit probably it's highest point today with a huge road win against WIU. All they need to do is beat Missouri St at home next week and I think they've got a great shot at 6-5 with 3 quality wins (but boy does that ISUb loss look bad right now). They're obviously no sure thing and not playing a game in week 12 may hurt them (out of sight, out of mind for the comittee) but considering where they were at just 8 days ago this a stunning turnaround for them.
Northern Iowa (4-5, 3-3)
Quality wins: @Iowa St
Bad losses: @USD
Remaining games: @WIU, SDSU
The Panthers cruised to an easy victory in Terre Haute behind their 3rd string QB and did what they needed to do to stay alive. However things now get tougher with their final two games against solid playoff contending teams. Next week's game at WIU is huge for both teams but even moreso for UNI because they absolutely cannot afford a loss. If they do win out they'll add two great wins to their Iowa St win and would look pretty good at 6-5. Interestingly they don't play ISUr this year which could make for a pretty interesting comparison between the two teams if they both finish 6-5. I think ISUr's Northwestern win trumps UNI's Iowa St win so not only do they need to win out but they need help inside the MVFC and out of it to make the postseason. Winning out is a tall order though - they have the talent to do it but we will see.
Eliminated
South Dakota (4-5, 3-3) - They're technically not completely dead as if they win out to finish 6-5 they'd have a road win @SDSU and a home win vs NDSU to tout but let's be honest... that ain't happening. Handing SIU their first conference win of the year today was their death knell for 2016.
Missouri St (4-5, 2-4) - The Bears hung on for longer than most anyone thought they would this year but the clock struck midnight on their playoffs hopes for 2016. They've got something to build on going into next year though.
Indiana St (4-6, 2-5) - The Sycs are trending in the wrong direction as the season comes down the stretch. How did ISUr lose to this team?
Southern Illinois (3-6, 1-5) - Well, the Salukis showed today they're still capable of spoiling some playoff dreams. They'll have more chances to do it again with remaining games vs YSU and @WIU.
Two teams were eliminated in week 10 leaving only 6 teams still in contention for a playoff spot. Due to Illinois St's stunning turnaround I think there's now an outside shot of 5 MVFC teams making it to the playoffs but it's still looking like 4 is more likely given that with the way the conference season has gone there's probably going to be some head scratching losses in the last two weeks by teams that can't afford them. I've ordered the teams according to who I think has the easiest path, or is already locked in, to the playoffs to the toughest along with my thoughts on where each is shaking out.
Locks
North Dakota St (8-1, 5-1)
Quality wins: CSU, EWU, @Iowa, @WIU, YSU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: ISUb, @USD
The Bison locked themselves into the field picking up yet another quality win against YSU. I'd think they're in position to have homefield throughout the playoffs once again as a top 2 seed if they win out but whos knows with this selection committee's curious initial rankings. I think even if they split their final two they'll be seeded but they should be heavily favored to win both.
Should be in
South Dakota St (6-3, 5-1)
Quality wins: WIU, @NDSU, YSU
Bad losses: @ISUr (although this loss isn't looking as bad as it did a week ago)
Remaining games: USD, @UNI
The Jacks got on track today knocking MSU out of playoff contention in convincing fashion. I think one more win locks them in and they face a reeling USD team at home next week with a good chance to get that. They better not mess around with that one though because that season finale in Cedar Falls has the potential to be a big game for UNI so that definitely won't be a gimme. I still think if they win out they've got a shot at a seed but they'd need help, especially considering the committee's odd placement of NDSU doesn't appear to show they value SDSU or the MVFC very strongly right now.
Work left to do
Youngstown St (6-3, 4-2)
Quality wins: None
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: SIU, @MSU
No good wins but no bad losses for YSU means they need to win their last 2 to lock themselves in which is definitely doable given they're facing two teams that are essentially just playing for pride at this point. However, if they only win 1 they'll find themselves in a familiar place firmly on the bubble come Selection Sunday given their weak non-conference schedule and complete lack of quality wins. Their chances at a bye went by the wayside with their loss today but making the playoffs for the first time in 10 years would be a great step forward for this program.
Western Illinois (6-3, 3-3)
Quality wins: NIU
Bad losses: ISUr (like SDSU it's tough to call this a bad loss - the timing of it is bad moreso than the opponent)
Remaining games: UNI, @SIU
The Necks were the latest team to fall victim to a suddendly revitalized ISUr squad and they're now very much on the bubble with a UNI team coming to town next week that's desperate for a win. They need to win both of their final games to take out a Selection Sunday sweat. I think they'll be fine even if they only win one to finish at 7-4 but they'd have to depend on bubble teams elsewhere helping them out a bit. Their seeds chances also went out the window today but they've got bigger worries than that right now.
Must win out
Illinois St (5-5, 3-4)
Quality wins: @Northwestern, SDSU, @WIU
Bad losses: @ISUb, @USD
Remaining games: MSU
The roller coaster season for the Redbirds hit probably it's highest point today with a huge road win against WIU. All they need to do is beat Missouri St at home next week and I think they've got a great shot at 6-5 with 3 quality wins (but boy does that ISUb loss look bad right now). They're obviously no sure thing and not playing a game in week 12 may hurt them (out of sight, out of mind for the comittee) but considering where they were at just 8 days ago this a stunning turnaround for them.
Northern Iowa (4-5, 3-3)
Quality wins: @Iowa St
Bad losses: @USD
Remaining games: @WIU, SDSU
The Panthers cruised to an easy victory in Terre Haute behind their 3rd string QB and did what they needed to do to stay alive. However things now get tougher with their final two games against solid playoff contending teams. Next week's game at WIU is huge for both teams but even moreso for UNI because they absolutely cannot afford a loss. If they do win out they'll add two great wins to their Iowa St win and would look pretty good at 6-5. Interestingly they don't play ISUr this year which could make for a pretty interesting comparison between the two teams if they both finish 6-5. I think ISUr's Northwestern win trumps UNI's Iowa St win so not only do they need to win out but they need help inside the MVFC and out of it to make the postseason. Winning out is a tall order though - they have the talent to do it but we will see.
Eliminated
South Dakota (4-5, 3-3) - They're technically not completely dead as if they win out to finish 6-5 they'd have a road win @SDSU and a home win vs NDSU to tout but let's be honest... that ain't happening. Handing SIU their first conference win of the year today was their death knell for 2016.
Missouri St (4-5, 2-4) - The Bears hung on for longer than most anyone thought they would this year but the clock struck midnight on their playoffs hopes for 2016. They've got something to build on going into next year though.
Indiana St (4-6, 2-5) - The Sycs are trending in the wrong direction as the season comes down the stretch. How did ISUr lose to this team?
Southern Illinois (3-6, 1-5) - Well, the Salukis showed today they're still capable of spoiling some playoff dreams. They'll have more chances to do it again with remaining games vs YSU and @WIU.
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